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How To Get Predictable Returns | Mike Dever, Brandywine Asset Management | #3

Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management on Top Traders Unplugged with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

“I did end up in 1984 meeting another trader by the name Poul Tudor Jones and I allocated some capital to him, I met in ’82 John [W.] Henry and allocated some capital to him….and we were the first outside investor for Transtrend in a fund that they launched when they launched when they launched their company in 1992”

On today’s show I am talking to Mike Dever, the Founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management.  Mike is a Divergent Thinking Systematic Investment Manager and Author of the best selling book “Jackass Investing”. Mike has been trading for almost 4 decades and shares a wealth of insight to how he has stayed successful and how his trading approach and research has stayed current in an ever changing financial landscape.

Thank you for visiting, now let’s get to the interview with Mike Dever.

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

  • The Evolution of Mike’s Trading
  • How Mike almost got in to business with Richard Donchian
  • How they developed a systematic trading model in the 1980s
  • How Mike met and invested with Paul Tudor Jones, John W. Henry and was the first outside investor in Transtrend
  • How Mike went from being a discretionary trader to become fully systematic when launching the Benchmark Program, and Why

“The one thing, if there’s nothing else, that you get from systematic trading is the disciplined risk management approach to trading.”

  • About the experience of running the Brandywine Benchmark Program in in the ‘90s
  • How Mike discovered the importance of Portfolio Allocation in the 1980s
  • The Story of Developing the Predictive Diversification Portfolio Allocation Model
  • The Entrepreneurial Storm that Kept Mike away from Trading and Brandywine for Years
  • The story of developing the Brandywine Symphony Program

“The question that was being asked, by everybody that was doing portfolio modeling, then and continuing today, was wrong. They were asking, ‘how do we achieve the most optimal performance.’ They got that. The question that they should have been asking was, ‘How do I get the most predictable performance?’ Nothing else matters.”

  • How many people it takes to run a system with more than 1,000 strategy/market combinations
  • Exploring the track record of Brandywine Symphony Program
  • Why one should avoid making decisions based on single return drivers
  • 5 Themes in Brandywine’s Asset Allocation Strategy: Fundamental, Sentiment, Event, Arbitrage and Alpha Hedge
  • How Marginal Cost of Production Works as a Return Driver
  • Are the strategies from the 1980’s just as effective today?
  • What is directional arbitrage?

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

“If you’ve got optimal returns that you don’t know are predictable going into the future, who cares?”

Jackass Investing by Mike Dever

Learn about Dick Donchian the Grandfather of Trend Following

Connect with Brandywine or learn more about them

Learn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood Foundation

Learn about John W. Henry

Sponsored by Swiss Financial Services and Saxo Bank:

Saxo Bank Sponsor of Top Traders Unplugged

Connect with Brandywine:

Visit the Website: www.brandywine.com

Call Brandywine: +1 630 361 1000

E-Mail Mike Directly: Mike@brandywine.com

1 Comment

  1. […] to be better to seek out than pursuing predictability. On this podcast, Mike Dever talks about volatility and how creating predictability is important. This also makes me think of what Nicholas Nassim Taleb says about betting against things that are […]

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