We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin.
Thanks to Matt for leaving us a voicemail. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter:
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
0:00 - Intro
1:36 - Macro recap from Niels
4:27 - Weekly review of returns
9:38 - Discussion on Tesla’s recent earnings
25:13 - Q1; Matt via the Top Traders Unplugged free voicemail service: How do you select single stocks as a Trend Follower?
35:02 - Q2; Alfred: Does backwardation lead to price rallies?
41:10 - The fund who are now nicknamed ‘Gamma Hammer’ for betting on tranquil markets
48:07 - Q3; Riccardo: What does Rob think about mean reversion strategies, and how they can be complimented with Trend Following? What are your thoughts on Systematic Macro strategies, and how do they compare with Trend Following?
57:16 - Q4; Michael: How long would it take to convert a system made in Microsoft Excel, to Python?
1:00:20 - Q5; James: What do you think about exiting winning trades in stages, rather than at once?
1:06:08 - Hedging against inflation
1:11:06 - Benchmark performance update