“Strength Without Conviction”
This Week in Trend – 5 December 2025
Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the shifting structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 5 December 2025.
Markets put on another show of strength, but the underlying structure weakened. Equities climbed again, energy surged on the back of natural gas, and meats continued their impressive advance. Volatility collapsed for a second week, giving the tape a calm surface. Yet beneath that calm, trend conditions slipped. The TTU Trend Barometer fell to 41 percent, a clear sign that the underlying trend environment softened even as headline prices advanced.
The picture is one of strength without alignment. A market pulling upward, yet doing so without the broad participation that gives trend followers confidence.
SG Trend Index Performance
Month to date: +0.34 percent
Year to date: +0.81 percent
Last week:
• +0.92 percent MTD
• +0.02 percent YTD
The contrast with last week tells the real story. Seven days ago the index regained positive ground for both the month and the year, helped by strong flows in metals, a rebound in equities and support from grains and meats. This week the index still posted a small gain for December and moved further into positive territory for the year, yet the momentum behind that improvement softened.
The key difference is breadth. Last week’s lift reflected many sectors stabilising at once. This week’s result was held up by only a few strong contributors, mainly natural gas, parts of the metals complex and ongoing strength in the meats. Equity gains helped, but the broader trend environment weakened.
The SG Trend Index rose, but not with the same rotation like character seen previously. The improvement this week came from selective strength, not from a broad alignment of trends. This is consistent with a market where the surface looks firm, but the underlying structure lacks conviction.
TTU Trend Barometer
Current reading: 41 percent, easing from last week
Previous reading: 48 percent
10 day rate of change: Falling weakly
The TTU Trend Barometer slipped to 41 percent this week, a clear sign that the underlying trend environment softened even as headline prices advanced. Markets moved higher, but they did not move together. Natural gas and the meats continued to show strong structure. Metals held their form, though with less impulse. Equities rose again, yet many of the signals inside the equity complex lost strength rather than gained it.
The barometer shifting from 48 percent to 41 percent illustrates this tension. More markets moved into corrective or drift conditions, while fewer maintained strong directional alignment. The result is a landscape that looks healthy on the surface but delivers less depth for trend systems.
A reading in the low forties signals an environment where opportunities exist, but participation is narrow and the foundation of the tape remains fragile. It captures the essence of the week. Strength appeared, but conviction did not follow.
The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.
Weekly Asset Class Snapshot
Source: Finwiz.com
- Volatility Index (−5.30 percent | prev −15.56 percent)
Volatility fell again, but the move was far smaller than last week’s collapse. The sharp stress of earlier in November has faded, yet VIX is now gliding rather than plunging. The market feels calmer, but the slower decline fits the idea of strength without deep conviction. - Crypto (−1.80 percent | prev +7.60 percent)
Crypto gave back part of last week’s powerful rebound. Bitcoin’s drop of almost two percent confirms that the prior lift was corrective rather than the start of a durable uptrend. Structure remains choppy and fragile. - Grains (−2.11 percent | prev +0.91 percent)
Grains swung back into weakness after a brief positive week. Corn, wheat and soybeans all slipped, and the complex remains one of the clearest bearish themes across the futures universe. - Meats (+3.50 percent | prev +2.79 percent)
Meats strengthened again and actually improved on last week’s already solid gains. Live cattle and feeder cattle continue to trend cleanly higher and remain a core source of support for trend portfolios. - Bonds (−0.73 percent | prev +0.15 percent)
Bonds moved lower after holding steady last week. The yield curve is still caught in a broad, choppy range that offers little sustained direction for systematic models. - Energy (+3.01 percent | prev +1.02 percent)
Energy delivered a stronger week. Crude benchmarks pushed higher and heating oil firmed, while natural gas extended its explosive rally. The complex is shifting from simple stabilisation toward more directional strength, but the leadership is still concentrated in gas. - Metal (+0.72 percent | prev +7.20 percent)
Metals remained positive but lost much of last week’s impulse. Silver and copper edged higher while gold and platinum consolidated. The complex still offers one of the better structural trend profiles, yet this week was more about holding ground than breaking out. - Soft Commodity (−1.40 percent | prev +4.03 percent)
Softs slipped back into decline after last week’s relief bounce. Cocoa held up reasonably well, but orange juice, sugar and coffee stayed under pressure. The longer term downtrend remains the dominant feature. - Equity Index (+0.74 percent | prev +3.71 percent)
Equities advanced again, though gains were far smaller than last week’s broad rally. Major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, DAX and Nikkei nudged higher while Russell 2000 lagged. Uptrends are intact, but momentum at the highs is clearly slowing. - Currency (+0.49 percent | prev +0.77 percent)
Currencies posted modest gains, led by risk aligned pairs such as AUD and CAD. USD eased slightly. The complex continues to express a gentle risk on tone rather than a strong directional trend.
Summary
Compared with last week’s broad surge, this week looked more selective. Meats and energy, especially natural gas, carried strong momentum. Metals and equities still rose but with much less force. Grains, softs, crypto and bonds weakened. Volatility kept grinding lower. The result is a landscape where strength is real but concentrated, perfectly matching this week’s theme of Strength Without Conviction.
Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards
Top Market Movers
Top Gainers
- Natural Gas +10.04 percent – Explosive Upside Continuation
Natural gas delivered another spectacular surge. This follows weeks of rising momentum and now stands as one of the clearest and strongest trends across the entire futures landscape. The move was directional, impulsive and fully aligned with existing long trend structures. - Feeder Cattle +4.63 percent – Trend Leadership in Meats
Feeder cattle extended its powerful uptrend with another solid gain. The structure remains smooth and consistent, offering strong contribution for systems already positioned long in the meats complex. - Live Cattle +4.37 percent – Strength Broadens Across the Complex
Live cattle followed feeder cattle higher and reinforced the broader strength in meats. This has become one of the most reliable trending clusters in the current environment. - Copper +3.45 percent – Industrial Metals Hold Firm
Copper continued its upward drift with a gain of more than three percent. The move reinforced the broader stability seen in the metals complex, though the tone was steadier than last week’s strong surge in precious metals. - Cocoa +3.45 percent – Controlled Recovery
Cocoa rebounded after heavy selling in prior weeks. The move was sharp but remained corrective, offering temporary relief rather than a trend reversal.
Top Losers
- VIX −5.30 percent – Volatility Pushes Lower Again
The VIX declined for a second week. The magnitude was smaller than last week’s collapse, yet the direction remained clear. The reduction in volatility supported risk assets but also highlights the lack of conviction behind the broader price moves. - Orange Juice −5.19 percent – Downtrend Resumes After Brief Stabilisation
OJ fell sharply and continues to trace an extended downward structure. The selling pressure reaffirmed the dominant trend and removed last week’s small signs of stabilisation. - Canola −4.99 percent – Persistent Weakness in Grains
Canola suffered heavy losses and remains one of the softest markets in the agricultural complex. Trend structure continues to point lower. - Soybean Meal −3.55 percent – Grain Sector Under Pressure
Soybean meal declined again, reinforcing the bearish tone across grains. This group remains one of the weakest clusters for trend alignment. - Soybeans −2.86 percent – No Relief in the Broader Complex
Soybeans added to the sector’s downside pressure, with price action remaining firmly inside a medium term downtrend.
Summary
This week’s leadership came from natural gas and the meats complex, both of which continued to show clean and powerful directional trends. Industrial metals contributed positively, while soft commodities showed isolated rebounds. On the downside, volatility kept sliding and agricultural weakness deepened. The distribution of winners and losers fits the broader narrative of strength appearing, but only in select pockets.
Portfolio View – Positioning and Impact
Equities
Equities moved higher again, but the momentum slowed noticeably compared with last week’s broad surge. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, DAX and Nikkei all posted small gains, while Russell 2000 lagged. Trend structures remain intact, yet the candles reveal hesitation at the highs. Systems continue to hold long exposure, but sizing remains moderated as volatility has contracted without delivering a clean expansion in trend strength. The market is rising, but the conviction behind the move is still thin.
Metals
Metals held positive ground but without the explosive momentum seen previously. Silver and copper advanced, while gold and platinum consolidated. Systems remain positioned long in this cluster because the broader structure is still one of the strongest trend environments in the portfolio. Contribution was positive, though more subdued. Metals continue to anchor the portfolio with cleaner, more stable signals than other sectors.
Energy
Energy strengthened this week. Crude benchmarks pushed higher, heating oil improved and natural gas surged again with double digit gains. Natural gas remains the standout trend within the sector, but crude and refined products still lack consistent direction. Trend exposure is therefore uneven. Models with dedicated gas signals performed well, while broader energy exposures stayed light and rotational.
Crypto
Crypto slipped after last week’s sharp rebound. Bitcoin fell almost two percent, confirming that last week’s recovery did not transition into a new trend. Many systems remain flat or lightly short, with long exposure limited to short term rotational models. The sector continues to behave in a choppy and corrective manner, and conviction remains low.
Soft Commodities and Meats
Soft commodities weakened again. Cocoa held up reasonably well, but orange juice, canola, sugar and soy products continued to decline. Trend direction remains firmly lower across the softs and grains complex.
Meats were a bright spot. Feeder cattle and live cattle extended their upward trends and delivered meaningful positive contribution. Exposure in this cluster remains well aligned and continues to add stability to the overall portfolio.
Rates and FX
Bonds moved lower and remain stuck in a broad, indecisive structure. Trend signals are sparse across the curve, and exposure continues to be minimal.
Currencies experienced mild strength in AUD, CAD and NZD, while USD eased slightly. Trend alignment remains low across FX. Most systems express this through balanced, low conviction positioning rather than directional trades.
Summary
This week delivered gains from meats, natural gas and parts of the metals complex. Equities rose but with softer momentum, while crypto reversed, softs weakened and bonds drifted. The portfolio benefited from the pockets of clear trend structure but avoided overcommitting to the broader risk on tone, which still lacks uniform alignment. Trend systems remain selective, participating where signals are clean and stepping back where structure remains noisy.
Final Reflections – Strength Without Conviction
This week painted a familiar picture in global markets. Prices rose across several key sectors, volatility eased and certain trends showed renewed life. Yet beneath the surface, the structure did not firm. Markets moved, but conviction did not. Trend strength and price strength once again drifted apart.
Natural gas, feeder cattle and parts of the metals complex delivered genuine strength. Equities edged higher, but the candles reveal hesitation and the participation behind the move remains narrow. Crypto slipped after last week’s rebound, softs deteriorated further and bonds continued to drift. The environment continues to reward selectivity, not enthusiasm.
The TTU Trend Barometer drifted lower to 41 percent, reinforcing that the opportunity set remains fragmented. Some clusters are trending well, others are correcting and several are oscillating without direction. There is movement, but not alignment.
Three observations define the week:
- Momentum exists, but it is not broad.
A handful of markets produced strong directional moves, yet many others weakened or chopped sideways. Trend breadth contracted again. - Metals and meats remain the structural pillars.
These sectors continue to offer the cleanest long side signals and the most consistent contributions across systematic portfolios. - Volatility eased, but commitment did not rise.
Markets are calmer, but the lack of structural trend expansion shows that the system beneath the price action is still unsettled.
This is a week where the weight may have moved, but the form behind the lift was unsteady. Trend followers thrive not on noise or enthusiasm, but on structure. Until the market offers that structure more broadly, systems will continue to participate lightly, rotate selectively and wait for alignment to return.
Strength without conviction can still offer opportunity, but it demands discipline.
List of Resources used in the Week in Review
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