Trend Following - Week in Review - June 27, 2025

“Just because it turned doesn’t mean it’s trending.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

The forest is stirring again. After a long stretch of choppy reversals and tactical retreats, directional movement is reemerging. But clarity is not uniform. A dramatic reversal in energy crushed recent longs. Meanwhile, equities lifted, precious metals broke higher, and the softs staged a surprise rebound.

The landscape is shifting. The challenge now is whether trend systems can stay nimble enough to ride the right wave.

"Green Shoots in the Ashes"

It was a week of high contrasts. Energies snapped hard lower, giving back multiple weeks of gains and punishing long-biased trend systems. Grains and commodity-linked currencies continued their descent. In contrast, precious metals and equities offered clean directional moves. Cocoa, oddly enough, staged a major comeback.

The trend picture is improving, but the environment remains fractured.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month-to-date (as of June 26): +0.97%
• Year-to-date: -10.48%

(Previous week MTD: +0.25% | YTD: -11.11%)

The SG Trend Index pushed further into positive territory for the month, recovering ground from June’s earlier pullback. While the longer-term drawdown remains, the recent bounce suggests a tentative return of trend-following conditions.

TTU Trend Barometer: 50 Percent – Strong Environment

• Previous reading: 45 Percent
• 10-day rate of change: Rising Weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer moved up into a solid “trend-supportive” range for the first time in weeks. Now at 50 percent, it reflects improving directional structure across a wider range of markets. It’s not yet a breakout regime, but the tide is turning.

“Fifty percent doesn’t mean go all-in. It means look sharp, the real moves might be starting."

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

The largest moves this week came from opposite corners. Energy markets extended their rally. Softs crumbled. Bonds and metals added modest support. Most other asset classes offered little contribution, either positive or negative.

Asset Class Breakdown – The Whipsaws and Breakouts

• Energy: -8.44% (Previous: +4.78%)
  A violent reversal. WTI, Brent, and Heating Oil collapsed, wiping out recent gains. Long positions were broadly hit.
• Metals: +3.14% (Previous: +0.41%)
  Strong breakouts in Platinum and Palladium. Gold and Copper also supported.
• Equities: +3.65% (Previous: -0.05%)
  A bounce across global indexes. Nikkei, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 led the charge.
• Soft Commodities: +1.53% (Previous: -5.71%)
  A big reversal week. Cocoa surged nearly 10 percent. Coffee and OJ stabilized.
• Grains: -3.81% (Previous: -0.08%)
  Broad pressure. Shorts in Corn, Wheat, and Soybean Meal worked. Canola fell hardest.
• Meats: +0.57% (Previous: +0.14%)
  Another week of quiet gains in cattle and feeder markets.
• Bonds: +0.55% (Previous: +0.26%)
  Steady, supportive action across durations.
• Currencies: +1.00% (Previous: -0.68%)
  The US dollar weakened again. Minor trends emerging, but fragmentation remains.
• Volatility Index: -10.77% (Previous: -2.69%)
  Another week of fading fear. VIX collapsed. Short-vol strategies saw brief traction.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Cocoa: +9.52% – A massive snapback after prior weakness.
• Palladium & Platinum: +8.73% / +5.64% – Strong technical breakouts.
• Nikkei 225, Copper, Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin – Broad risk-on strength.

Top Losers

• Crude Oil (WTI & Brent): -11.88% / -11.48% – Reversal carnage.
• Heating Oil & Gasoline: -10.82% / -10.87% – Momentum broken, hard.
• Grains: Canola -6.47%, Wheat -7.24% – Short setups rewarded.
• Soybean complex, Natural Gas, Silver – Continued drift or renewed declines.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

• Energy: Trend followers were caught on the wrong side. The clean rally of recent weeks reversed violently. Models still holding long exposure likely saw significant give-back. Short re-entries were unlikely in time to recover losses.
• Metals: A bright spot. Platinum and Palladium surged, with Gold and Copper contributing. Systems positioned long in these breakouts had a solid week. Silver was softer, but the complex overall turned net positive.
• Grains: Short setups paid off. Canola, Wheat, and Soybean Oil led the move lower. While some reversals within the space muddied the waters, the overall tilt remained bearish. Trend followers aligned short saw results.
• Equities: Supportive action across major indices. Most trend models likely held or added to long positions in the Nasdaq, Nikkei, and S&P. Not explosive, but finally directional.
• Softs: Cocoa’s rally was sharp and sudden, catching some systems off guard. Models still short were likely stopped. Others flipped long in time to benefit. The rest of the sector saw stability return.
• Bonds: Continued to act as a smoothing agent. Mild positive returns helped portfolios manage risk.
• Currencies: Still choppy. The dollar fell again, but without coordinated strength in majors. Minor gains in NZD, GBP, and CHF. Exposure likely minimal.
• Crypto: Bitcoin drifted higher, sitting in a stable up-channel. No breakout signal, but steady enough to support flat or long-biased positions.
• Volatility: Short-vol traders got some reward this week, but trend systems likely stayed cautious. The VIX's drop offered no sustained signal beyond a one-week reprieve.

Final Reflections – Green Shoots in the Ashes

This week brought signs of renewal. Trend strength improved. Metals and equities offered real follow-through. Grains and softs moved with conviction. But the whipsaw in energy was a sharp reminder that even when the environment improves, posture still matters.

The SG Trend Index ticked up. The TTU Trend Barometer moved above the neutral zone. Structure is returning.

But the lesson remains: trend following is not about anticipating the fire. It’s about reading the smoke, staying positioned, and letting the heat build.

 

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document is directly solely to Accredited Investors, Qualified Eligible Participants, Qualified Clients and Qualified Purchasers. No investment decision should be made until prospective investors have read the detailed information in the fund offering documents of any manager mentioned in this document. This document is furnished on a confidential basis only for the use of the recipient and only for discussion purposes and is subject to amendment This document is neither advice nor a recommendation to enter into any transaction. This document is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any security or other financial instrument. This presentation is based on information obtained from sources that TopTradersUnplugged (“TTU”) (“considers to be reliable however, TTU makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information. TTU has not independently verified third party manager or benchmark information, does not represent it as accurate, true or complete, makes no warranty, express or implied regarding it and shall not be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses relating to its adequacy, accuracy, truth, completeness or use.

All projections, valuations, and statistical analyses are provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein. Such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may use one among many alternative methodologies that produce different results accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses should not be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate prediction of future events. There is no guarantee that any targeted performance will be achieved Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone

TTU is not and does not purport to be an advisor as to legal, taxation, accounting, financial or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. The recipient should independently evaluate and judge the matters referred to herein. TTU does not provide advice or recommendations regarding an investor’s decision to allocate to funds or accounts managed by any manager (“or to maintain or sell investments in funds or accounts managed by any manager, and no fiduciary relationship under ERISA is created by the investor investing in funds or accounts managed by any manager, or through any communication between TTU and the investor

In reviewing this document, it should be understood that the past performance results of any asset class, or any investment or trading program set forth herein, are not necessarily indicative of any future results that may be achieved in connection with any transaction. Any persons subscribing for an investment must be able to bear the risks involved and must meet the suitability requirements relating to such investment. Some or all alternative investment programs discussed herein may not be suitable for certain investors This document is directed only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such investment professionals. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely upon this document.

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

This document contains simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations AND SHOULD BE VIEWED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT ACCOUNT.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM OR OTHER ASSET.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those being shown.