Trend Following - Week in Review - August 8, 2025

"Resilience in Pockets, Retreat Elsewhere"

This Week in Trend – 8 August 2025

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your weekly pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

This week highlighted a market split between strength in select assets and weakness elsewhere. Trend followers had opportunities in coffee, silver, and certain equity markets, while energy, palladium, and grains struggled. With the TTU Trend Barometer at 34 percent, the environment remains challenging, but not devoid of tradable structure.

The message is clear, focus on the surviving pools of persistence and avoid forcing trades where the tide has gone out.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month-to-date (as of Aug 8): +1.05%
• Year-to-date: -9.08%

(Previous week MTD: +0.45% | YTD: -9.58%)

The SG Trend Index improved slightly, though gains remain modest. Year-to-date performance is still deep in negative territory, underscoring the challenging environment for systematic trend followers.

TTU Trend Barometer: 34 Percent – Moderately Weak

• Previous reading: 36 Percent
• 10-day rate of change: Falling Rapidly

At 34 percent, fewer than 35 percent of markets are showing medium to strong trend conditions. This further deterioration points to shrinking price persistence, with fewer clear opportunities for systems to latch onto.

"At thirty-four, the tide is low — only a few rock pools remain."

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Crypto, equities, and select soft commodities outperformed. Energy fell further, bonds slipped, and volatility collapsed sharply.

Asset Class Breakdown – Reversals and Continuations

• Energy: -2.62% (Previous: +0.30%)
  Crude oil (WTI and Brent) fell again, with natural gas extending its slide. The sector is in retreat, with many systems likely reducing or exiting long exposure.
• Metals: +0.47% (Previous: -6.89%)
  A mixed week — silver and copper gained while palladium fell sharply and platinum eased. Gold held near highs.
• Equities: +3.32% (Previous: -3.19%)
  Strong gains across major indexes, led by the Nikkei 225 and Nasdaq 100. The rebound restored some equity trend signals.
• Soft Commodities: +1.08% (Previous: -5.32%)
  Coffee and cocoa surged, orange juice recovered but lumber softened. The sector regained some structure.
• Grains: -0.74% (Previous: -2.75%)
  Losses slowed, but wheat, soybeans, and corn remain under pressure. Trend signals are still weak.
• Meats: +1.17% (Previous: +0.03%)
  Lean hogs and live cattle saw mixed action, but the sector held steady overall.
• Bonds: -0.33% (Previous: +1.01%)
  Modest pullback across the curve, with structure holding but momentum stalling.
• Currencies: +0.55% (Previous: -0.80%)
  Slight gains for majors against the USD, but no strong directional alignment across FX pairs.
• Crypto: +3.39% (Previous: -3.05%)
  Bitcoin rebounded, preserving its uptrend, though volatility in the space remains elevated.
• Volatility Index: -15.62% (Previous: +11.27%)
  A sharp drop in the VIX signalled easing market stress, potentially re-risking conditions for trend systems.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Coffee: +8.83% – Breakout strength, leading softs
• Nikkei 225: +5.66% – Fresh highs
• Silver: +4.28% – Precious metals support
• Rough Rice: +4.00% – Agricultural surprise
• Nasdaq 100: +3.85% – Tech-led equity rally

Top Losers

• VIX: -15.62% – Sharp volatility collapse
• Palladium: -6.66% – Precious metals divergence
• Lumber: -6.11% – Softs pullback
• Crude Oil WTI: -5.91% – Energy under pressure
• Crude Oil Brent: -4.81% – Follow-through selling in oil

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

• Energy
  Oil weakness likely pushed systems into deeper short territory. Natural gas trends remain down, with shorts holding dominance.
• Metals
  Silver and copper provided long-side opportunities, but palladium and platinum weakened, creating internal dispersion in the metals complex.
• Grains
  Selling pressure slowed but momentum remains negative. Systems are likely underweight or out of key contracts.
• Softs
  Coffee and cocoa strength could re-engage long exposure. Orange juice recovery may tempt systems back in, though volatility is high.
• Equities
  Broad equity gains, particularly in Asia and tech-heavy indexes, restored bullish setups.
• Bonds
  Mild pullback but the long bias remains intact. Systems are likely holding reduced positions.
• Currencies
  Mixed week without strong coordinated trends. USD weakness provided some relief for risk currencies.
• Crypto
  Bitcoin recovery may support long exposure, though drawdown risk persists.
• Volatility
  Collapse in the VIX eases pressure on risk assets, but may also reduce breakout opportunities for volatility strategies.

Final Reflections – Resilience in Pockets, Retreat Elsewhere

This week highlighted a market split between strength in select assets and weakness elsewhere. Trend followers had opportunities in coffee, silver, and certain equity markets, while energy, palladium, and grains struggled. With the TTU Trend Barometer at 34 percent, the environment remains challenging, but not devoid of tradable structure.

The message is clear: focus on the surviving pools of persistence and avoid forcing trades where the tide has gone out.

 

 

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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