Trend Following - Week in Review - September 26, 2025

“Metallic Momentum, Broadening Strength”

This Week in Trend – 26 September 2025

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your weekly pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

The TTU Trend Barometer climbed to 52 percent from 36 percent last week, shifting from “moderately weak” into strong territory. Breadth improved as metals surged, meats stayed firm, and equities added to constructive positioning. The SG Trend Index extended its recovery, rising to +4.52% month-to-date and cutting YTD losses to −3.38% (compared to +3.36% MTD and −4.55% YTD a week ago).

Metals were the standout story: palladium, platinum, and silver posted double-digit and high-single-digit gains, propelling trend environments forward. Meats continued to support, while grains, softs, and crypto lagged behind.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month-to-date (as of Sep 26): +4.52%
• Year-to-date: -3.38%
  (Previous week: +3.36% MTD | -4.55% YTD)

The SG Trend Index accelerated gains as strong participation in metals and supportive contributions from equities and meats outweighed commodity weakness elsewhere.

TTU Trend Barometer

• Current reading: 52 percent – Strong
• Previous reading: 36 percent
• 10-day rate of change: Rising moderately

The barometer’s rebound above the neutral zone underscores that breadth has returned. Momentum is no longer isolated, metals have reignited trend conditions.

“This week metals lit the fire, strength broadened, and trend followers finally caught a stronger tailwind.”

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Asset Class Breakdown – Metallic Momentum Leads

• Metals: +7.3% – Palladium (+11.45%), platinum (+10.56%), and silver (+7.95%) exploded higher, supported by steady gold and copper.
• Meats: +1.8% – Lean hogs (+2.68%) and feeder cattle (+0.70%) extended sector strength.
• Energy: +2.5% – Heating oil (+5.31%), crude oil Brent (+4.60%), and WTI (+4.47%) lifted the sector.
• Equity Indices: +0.7% – Euro Stoxx 50 (+1.30%) and DAX (+1.04%) led, with US indices broadly positive and Nikkei easing (−0.38%).
• Soft Commodities: −0.5% – Coffee (+2.0%) provided a lift, but cocoa (−4.03%) dragged.
• Grains: −1.8% – Oats (−4.59%), soybean meal (−3.20%), and wheat (−1.52%) weighed on the complex.
• Crypto: −5.2% – Bitcoin fell sharply, leading the laggards.
• Bonds: Flat – Treasuries held steady with minor losses on the long end.
• Currencies: Mixed – EUR and GBP firmed modestly, while CAD, NZD, and AUD softened.
• Volatility Index: −4.55% – VIX fell back to subdued levels.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Palladium: +11.45% – Surging leadership.
• Platinum: +10.56% – Strong rally continuation.
• Silver: +7.95% – Reinforced broad precious metals strength.
• Heating Oil: +5.31% – Energy sector outlier.
• Brent Crude: +4.60% – Energy recovery momentum.

Top Losers

• Bitcoin: −5.16% – Crypto reversal continued.
• Oats: −4.59% – Weakest in grains.
• Cocoa: −4.03% – Sector drag.
• Soybean Meal: −3.20% – Soy complex weakness deepened.
• Rough Rice: −1.96% – Consistent pressure in grains.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

• Equities: US indices extended gains, Euro Stoxx and DAX showed leadership, while Japan slipped slightly.
• Metals: Palladium, platinum, and silver were the engine of the week, powering breadth into strong territory.
• Meats: Lean hogs and feeder cattle reinforced their steady uptrend.
• Energy: Heating oil and crude added strong contributions, keeping the sector in play.
• Softs & Grains: Cocoa, oats, and soybean meal pulled the complex lower, contrasting with firm coffee.
• Crypto: Bitcoin’s sharp drop eroded its diversifier role.
• Bonds & FX: Bonds were muted, FX saw USD soften modestly against EUR and GBP but hold steady versus commodity currencies.

Final Reflections – Metallic Momentum

This week underscored how quickly breadth can return when one sector ignites. Metals provided the spark. Palladium, platinum, and silver surged, pushing the TTU Barometer back into strong territory. Meats and energy offered supporting strength, while equities kept the global backdrop constructive.

Grains and crypto reminded us that weakness persists in certain pockets, but the bigger picture is clear: trend conditions have broadened, and systematic followers are once again catching a meaningful tailwind.

 

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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