TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED Q3 REVIEW

---

The months from July to September brought us a quarter that initially felt calm, but a closer look revealed a different story. While volatility seemed subdued, the underlying tension was palpable. The bond markets hinted at fragility, trend signals flickered unpredictably, and geopolitics re-emerged as a key player in the global macro narrative.

As always, at Top Traders Unplugged, we immersed ourselves in the thick of the action, featuring sharp-witted guests, candid debates, and unexpected perspectives that kept everyone intrigued. Here is a recap of what we saw.

The Stories That Made Headlines

One of the biggest stories this quarter has been the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, a theme that has persisted throughout the year, causing investors considerable stress and worry. We can’t ignore the fact that politics is changing the rules for markets.

In the US, discussions of new rules and ongoing policy debates have left investors uncertain about which regulations will actually take effect and which won’t. Meanwhile, global trade relationships continue to shift, leading us to observe a world that seems to be leaning more towards US isolation rather than collaboration. The implications of this shift for trade and markets are already becoming evident, but we believe the full impact has yet to be realized.

The Federal Reserve also came center stage. Their role used to be straightforward: controlling inflation, supporting employment, and maintaining independence. However, this quarter has been complicated. Rumors began circulating that Chair Jerome Powell might be fired, sparking fresh debates about the future of the Fed. Consequently, markets were left guessing whether policy decisions were based on data or political pressure. This uncertainty manifested in bond markets, rate expectations, and investor behavior.

Throughout Q3, bonds drew heightened attention. Yields broadly declined, and curves twisted in unusual ways that signaled uncertainty. Safe assets no longer felt entirely secure. Sometimes, bonds rallied as if everything were fine, while at other times they stalled or reversed, highlighting the underlying stress in markets.

All of this has prompted investors to rethink their portfolio construction. The classic 60/40 model no longer feels reassuring. People are experimenting with real assets, long volatility, portable alpha, and alternative strategies like trend-following. They are now seeking not just returns, but resilience.

And then there’s the big question: What’s really going on with CTAs and trend-following strategies? Are we experiencing a rough patch, or is the strategy losing its effectiveness? Some observers feel that trend-following is “not working.” But is that truly the case, or are we simply in one of those slow, sideways periods that typically precede a breakout?

We spent a lot of time unpacking these issues. They are precisely the kinds of discussions we find most engaging.

Conversations That Shaped the Narrative

The "U Got Options" series, which we launched this year, continues to grow its reputation as the go-to destination for thoughtful discussions on volatility and options. Rick Santelli, CNBC’s veteran analyst and no-nonsense market voice, joined us for a fiery conversation about volatility, policy, and the true sources of market sentiment. Mandy Xu and Ed Tom from CBOE added even more depth with their breakdown of zero-day options, dispersion, and the rise of structured volatility trades. And Vlad Tenev, co-founder and CEO of Robinhood, provided a candid look at the evolution of retail investing and how his platform is expanding beyond trading into full-service wealth management.

Louis-Vincent Gave returned to remind us that while everyone is focused on the Fed, the bigger stories might be unfolding off-screen. He pointed to energy policy, global trade alliances, and capital flow dynamics as the real drivers of market direction. This was a timely reminder that the narrative may be less about central banks and more about who controls the levers behind the scenes.

Next, Artem Milinchuk, CEO of FarmTogether, encouraged us to think beyond spreadsheets and look at the soil... literally. He challenged us to consider farmland as a core component of a resilient portfolio. This was a refreshing perspective on an alternative investment that is rarely discussed but is becoming increasingly popular as people seek alternatives to typical equity and bond portfolios.

Shifting back to Fed policy and the emerging drama surrounding it, Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg, helped us grapple with one of the trickiest questions of the year: who actually sets policy now? She explained how central banks, once viewed as above the political fray, are being nudged, pressured, and constrained by outside forces. Her perspective was not alarmist but honest. Independence isn’t what it used to be; the Fed is losing its balance.

Of course, these highlights are just a glimpse of what we covered this quarter. We also explored economic policy, pension investing, carbon markets, and many other topics with an incredible lineup of guests. If you missed any of these discussions, now’s the perfect time to dive back into our catalogue and catch up.

Investing Gems from the TTU Co-Hosts

Conversations with our amazing co-hosts on the Systematic Investor Series also resonated deeply. Cem Karsan reminded us that, even though the market appears calm and quiet, it is actually not. Underneath the surface, liquidity and leverage are building, and that tension might snap when we least expect it. It was one of our most talked-about episodes of the year.

Richard Brennan helped us understand the different types of trend followers. Too often, we discuss it as if it were a single strategy, but Richard demonstrated how design choices can cause one “trend” fund to behave completely differently from another. The lesson? We must understand our needs and select the type of trend manager that aligns with our goals because not all managers are created equal.

Mark Rzepczynski gave us one of the most memorable ideas of the quarter with what he calls the “do nothing plus” principle. His view was that the smartest portfolios aren’t built by constant tinkering, but by holding steady and letting diversification do its work. The “plus” comes when you let trends decide the adjustments: stay in when markets rise, cut back when they fall.

Our episode with Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel centred on two key themes: why the best trend models are the simplest ones, and the case for trend replication as an alternative approach that can provide investors with clean, cost-efficient access to “trend beta”. Interestingly, Nick Baltas pushed back and challenged us to think harder about what we mean when we talk about trend beta. Many treat the SocGen Trend Index as the benchmark, but that doesn’t make it a pure measure of beta. It makes it an average of managers with quirks, trade-offs, and perhaps even a bit of alpha.

Another theme that emerged strongly this quarter was the drawdown trend strategies are facing, and the importance of patience on the investor's side. As Alan Dunne explained, trend following comes with drawdowns, and those drawdowns are not signs of failure, but they’re part of the strategy’s DNA. They are the cost of accessing long-term returns, much like equity investors endure their own storms.

Katy Kaminski added that the experience of those drawdowns can look very different across managers. Even under the same “trend” label, return outcomes diverge widely. And Yoav Git stressed that trend works best as a built-in tool that bridges long-term allocation views with short-term market realities. Together, these insights made it clear that no single datapoint or manager should define how we judge the strategy.

Rob Carver and Moritz Seibert both shared lessons that cut to the heart of investing. Rob reminded us that most strategies rarely fail on their own. It’s investors who do, by chasing what just worked or giving up too soon. Moritz showed why exits matter more than entries: getting into a trade is easy, but how you manage it by cutting losses, letting winners run, and staying disciplined is what really drives returns.

Lastly, Kevin Coldiron brought in brilliant authors this quarter. Diane Coyle joined to discuss her book, The Measure of Progress, in which she argues that GDP and traditional economic statistics are outdated and that we need more effective metrics that capture trust, time, and intangible value. Sandra Matz came on to speak from her book MindMasters, in a conversation that exposed how algorithms are subtly steering our decisions in ways we often don’t see.

Looking back, every co-host and guest made this quarter’s conversations richer, sharper, and more relevant than ever. We’re grateful for all their perspectives and for the curiosity they bring each week.

Lessons the Markets Taught Us

If there’s one theme we keep returning to on the podcast, it’s the importance of true diversification. Q3 reminded us why this matters so much. A good portfolio isn’t one where all the assets perform well together (which would be nice but isn’t a realistic expectation). Instead, it consists of components that behave differently, sometimes even uncomfortably, but provide resilience in the long run.

Geopolitics offered us another round of lessons. Wars, elections, tariffs, and energy shocks shape our market landscape. You can’t capture every risk in a spreadsheet, and many challenges will come from outside the neat confines of monetary policy and corporate earnings. We must be ready for the unexpected.

Geopolitical uncertainty reminded us that markets reward preparation, not prediction. Investors who focus on building robust, adaptable portfolios, rather than trying to forecast every twist and turn, are the ones who thrive. Q3 was a reminder that we don’t need to try to outguess the future; we just need to create portfolios that are resilient enough to withstand it.

Perhaps the most important takeaway, though, is patience. Too many investors fall into the trap of expecting every segment of their portfolio to shine simultaneously. They overlook that different strategies and assets are designed to excel under varying conditions. When we lose this perspective, the temptation to tweak, abandon, or chase fast returns becomes overwhelming. The wiser approach is to allow each part of the portfolio to fulfill its intended purpose.

Looking ahead, Q4 will bring its own mix of noise and surprises. The future won’t be clearer, but it doesn’t have to be. We will continue to have conversations that promote resilience, patience, and discipline. Join us and stay tuned!

---

This is based on episodes on Top Traders Unplugged, a bi-weekly podcast with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders and thought leaders in the world. Sign up for our Newsletter or subscribe on your preferred podcast platform so that you don't miss out on future episodes.