Posts by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

We are currently in a Fourth turning and fourth turnings is when we suddenly realize that that kind of world is not meant for survival and that we suddenly need order. We want direction, we need authority and we are usually shocked into that realization by a catalyst that suddenly plunges the world into a very negative mood. Suddenly big institutions particularly individualistic market institutions no longer seem to work anymore.

After a nail biting month of March, April was full of surprises…and of course a “never before in history” event, when we saw Oil prices go Negative. And that is actually the point I want to emphasize this month. How many times in the past 6 weeks have we heard the words “first time in history that this has happened”? Quite a few.

In my February update, I wrote about the three things that is usually present for a Crisis to happen (Excessive Valuations, a Trigger & Change in Investor Sentiment/Human Behaviour), but little did I know that this would be evident just 31 days later.
Last night the S&P 500 wrapped up a 12.5% drop for the month of March and 20% first-quarter tumble for the broad index…

Last Sunday as I was sitting on a train headed for Geneva to attend a few meetings, many global equity markets had just finished the week at or close to new highs. After a day in Geneva, and a quick return to see the family, my plan was to jump on another train to Milan for another two days of meetings. BUT Sunday night I spoke to a friend of mine who said, “Have you seen what is going on in Northern Italy, with the coronavirus?”

I could hardly believe my eyes when I sat down to write this update, only to find that despite geopolitical tensions following the killing of a top Iranian General and the outbreak of the Coronavirus, the Trend Barometer had not changed from December 31 to January 31.