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Posts by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Market Trends for May 2019

A perfect set-up for the month of May…stocks at their most recent highs, moderate growth, a dovish FED, volatility back to it’s lows and confidence in the tariff war ending soon…was quickly crushed by new tweets and rhetoric that caught the bulls on the wrong foot.

The month of May left equity investors bruised whilst bond investors enjoyed and unforgiving rally during another flight to “safety” environment and reminded us all of the old saying “Sell in May…and go away”.

Global Marco is back with a vengeance…which could lead to big trends ahead.

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Market Trends for April 2019

April saw conflicting headlines over the future of trend following, but what the media did not focus on so much…is the failing of the stock and bond markets to “survive” without artificial life support.

As equities surge to all-time highs, volatility has all but vanished. Investors are betting the calm will last, shorting the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, at rates not seen in at least 15 years.

Large speculators, mostly hedge funds, shorted VIX futures contracts in sizes not seen before.

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Market Trends for March 2019

One of Wall Street’s Most Popular Trading Strategies Is Now Failing
Machines that decide when to buy and sell are struggling to keep up with central banks and Donald Trump.

Remember this headline from Bloomberg on March 1?

Well…as we close the month of March, it sure looks like this journalist got his timing right…

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Market Trends for February 2019

Many trend followers continued their recovery from the November 2018 low, despite China, Trump and North Korea taking center stage in February. Also find out which pension fund recently told me: “I am hearing people throwing the towel in on these types of basic trend following strategies, that makes me kind of bullish on them.”

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Market Trends for January 2019

So after a solid December, trend followers found themselves playing defense as best they could, just like in this weekends 2019 Super Bowl.

January is also the month where each year I get to spend time with my peers at 2 of the worlds largest hedge fund/CTA conferences in Miami.

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Market Trends for December 2018

Can we just be real for a minute?

2018 was a roller coaster of a year…and one of those years where you could easily feel a bit sick to your stomach when you looked at the performance of your investments.

(at least it was for most trend followers)…but lately even hardcore equity bulls have felt the pain, just like bond investors did until a couple of months ago. Indeed 2018 will be remembered by many investors for its lows, rather than its highs.

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Market Trends for November 2018

Since 1999, the 3 best months of performance for managed futures, represented by the SG Trend Index, have been November, December and January… but as November did not live up to this reputation, let’s see if December and January can make up for this.

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Market Trends for October 2018

Last months post was headed “Calm before the Storm?”…and little did I know, that only a few days in to October, the storm would be blowing across many markets, but in particular Equities and Energies.

With the BOJ accelerating their extreme monetary policies and the FED putting on the breaks…this storm could get bigger…

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Best of TTU – Return Dispersion and How to Successfully Adapt

In today’s post, I would like to share with you some really great moments  and unique takeaways from  a conversation I had with Marty Bergin, the president and owner of DUNN Capital Management, where Marty shares his views on Return Dispersion and how those experiences, together with extensive research, has enabled them to produce a more robust trend following process for their clients.  If you would like to hear the…

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