Naomi

“Energy Takes the Lead as the Petroleum Complex Surges, Cocoa and Coffee Reverse While Equity Indices and Metals Fall, the Barometer Rises to 50% and Strong, and the SG Trend Index Eases”

This Week in Trend – 17 July 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 17 July 2026.

Leadership rotated sharply again this week. Energy seized control of the board while many of the previous week’s strongest commodity trends reversed, and the result was an unusual pairing: trend strength improved even as many trend followers gave back ground. Energy topped the board at +9.55%, the petroleum complex advancing almost as one, all four contracts between 13.67% and 15.91%, while Natural Gas eased 0.99% and Ethanol 1.30%. The VIX jumped 10.91%, turning up after two weeks of decline. Against that surge the prior week’s leaders rolled over: Soft Commodities fell to the bottom at -3.39% as Cocoa dropped 8.77% and Coffee 4.17%, both reversing large gains, and Grains cooled to +1.92% as the broad advance narrowed. The Equity Indices eased to -2.16% with all seven contracts lower, the Nikkei 225 off 5.94% and the Nasdaq 100 4.19%, and Metals fell 2.36% as the precious side surrendered more ground, Silver down 6.38%. The Meats eased 1.45% as the cattle contracts fell again, while the financial sectors that had lagged turned up: Bonds rose 0.16% across the curve, Currencies gained 0.33% as the commodity dollars tracked the energy move, and Bitcoin added 2.77%. Contract-level breadth turned negative at 23 of 49 contracts higher, with 26 lower and none unchanged, against 31 higher, 18 lower and none unchanged the week before.

Inside the complex the leadership changed hands again, the energy sector carrying the board while the commodity leaders of the prior week reversed. Energy strengthened across the petroleum complex as crude and the refined products ran together, Crude Oil Brent, Crude Oil WTI, Heating Oil and Gasoline RBOB all between 13.67% and 15.91%, while Natural Gas and Ethanol eased as the two decliners. Soft Commodities fell from the top to the bottom of the board, Cocoa reversing its 20.43% surge to an 8.77% drop and Coffee its 10.97% gain to a 4.17% decline, while Orange Juice continued lower at a shallower 3.02%. Grains held a narrower advance, Wheat up 6.64% and Soybean Oil 6.17% while Oats reversed to a 3.93% fall and Soybean Meal eased. The Equity Indices dropped across all seven contracts, the Nikkei 225 and the Nasdaq 100 the heaviest, an exact reversal of the US strength of a week earlier, and Metals fell as Silver led the precious give-back lower. The dollar eased modestly, the USD index off 0.17% as the commodity dollars rose with the energy move, NZD and CAD leading, Bonds steadied across the curve with the long end strongest, and the Meats fell as both cattle contracts dropped again while Lean Hogs rose.

Trend Indicators:  Barometer Rises to 50% and Strong, SG Trend Index Eases

TTU Trend Barometer: 50%, up from 39% last week, with the overall trend strength classification moving from Moderately Weak to Strong as the reading recovered above the 40% floor and climbed back up into the upper part of the Neutral band, stopping just short of the 55% boundary into a favourable environment. The 10-day rate of change reads Neutral, up from last week’s Falling Rapidly, the near-term pace no longer falling. The five-week sequence now reads 45, 55, 64, 39, 50: the reading rose 11 points this week, recovering close to half of the prior week’s 25-point fall and lifting from below the Neutral floor back toward the favourable threshold.

The 11-point rise came as a cluster of large, coherent moves lifted the count of markets trending decisively, even as this week’s breadth turned negative. The energy complex ran as a block, the four petroleum contracts finishing between 13.67% and 15.91%, while the declines elsewhere sharpened rather than scattered: the Equity Indices fell across all seven contracts, Silver and the precious metals extended lower together, and Cocoa and Coffee reversed hard. Strength counts in either direction, so a board where 26 of 49 contracts finished lower can still show rising trend strength when the moves that dominate are large and one-way within their sectors.

The barometer measures the share of markets generating medium-to-strong trends, not the direction those trends take, so its rise this week sits alongside a breadth reading that turned down. The weekly level recovered 11 points to 50% and back up into the upper Neutral band, while the 10-day rate of change turned to Neutral from last week’s Falling Rapidly: the near-term pace has stopped falling as the weekly snapshot climbed, the two measures now pointing the same way rather than pulling apart.

The count of markets trending decisively rose as the energy complex mounted a strong, uniform run and the declines in the Equity Indices, Metals and Soft Commodities firmed into one-way moves, while the prior week’s leaders in the grains and the softs gave back part of their advances. At 50% the level has climbed from below the 40% floor back up into the upper part of the Neutral band, close to the 55% favourable threshold, and the Neutral rate of change shows the near-term pace has steadied to match rather than lagging behind.

SG Trend Index: -0.95% month to date for July and +8.09% year to date as of 17 July. That compares with -0.46% MTD and +8.62% YTD at the prior week’s close: the year-to-date figure gave back roughly 0.53 of a percentage point over the week, and July deepened its loss from -0.46% to -0.95% inside the month. The give-back sat with the trends that reversed rather than the ones that held. Cocoa swung from a 20.43% surge to an 8.77% fall, Coffee from a 10.97% gain to a 4.17% decline, the grains handed back part of last week’s broad advance and Silver extended its slide to 6.38%, a set of turns that cost books positioned along the prior week’s commodity leadership. The energy complex ran the other way and paid where it was held, Heating Oil extending from 11.66% to 14.39% and crude accelerating up off the turn it had made, though the sharpest gains in Brent, WTI and Gasoline RBOB built only as this week opened and had to be caught rather than carried. This week the index eased while the barometer rose to 50% and Strong, the two pulling apart again with the signs flipped from a week earlier: previously falling trend strength sat alongside a firmer index; this week rising trend strength sits alongside a softer one. The divergence to note is that the reversals which cost fell on the trends that had paid the week before, while the rise in the barometer reflects how large and coherent the new moves were, the energy surge above all.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Indices (-2.16% | prev -0.32%)

Across the Equity Indices, all seven contracts fell, the sector easing to -2.16% with the reversal centred on the names that had led. The Nikkei 225 dropped 5.94% and the Nasdaq 100 4.19%, the two heaviest, with the S&P 500 off 1.61%, the DAX 1.06%, the DJIA 1.00%, the Russell 2000 0.68% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.67%. The US large caps that had strengthened back toward record territory a week earlier turned lower, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 surrendering the ground they had pressed, while the European indices that had fallen hardest the prior week eased far less this time. On the weekly charts the US megacaps rolled off the highs they had been testing, so the week reads as the first broad pullback across the sector in some time rather than the rotation within it seen recently, the leadership that had passed between the US and Europe now giving way to a decline shared by both.

Energy (+9.55% | prev +2.93%)

Energy led the board by a wide margin, surging to +9.55% as the petroleum complex moved almost as one in the largest sector move on the board. Crude Oil Brent rose 15.91%, Crude Oil WTI 15.61%, Heating Oil 14.39% and Gasoline RBOB 13.67%, a tight cluster of gains across crude and the refined products, while Natural Gas eased 0.99% and Ethanol 1.30% as the two decliners. The move extended and accelerated the turn crude had made a week earlier: where Brent and WTI had risen only modestly and Heating Oil had already begun to run, all four petroleum contracts now pushed higher together in a coherent, one-way advance. On the weekly charts crude broke up out of the lower part of the range it had pressed for weeks, the refined products running alongside it, so the sector moved in unison rather than on the split of recent weeks. Whether the breakout holds or fades back into the longer range is the open question the weekly chart leaves, the advance broad and one-way where the recent weeks had split.

Metals (-2.36% | prev +0.09%)

Across the metals complex, every contract declined, the sector dropping to -2.36% as the precious side surrendered ground and Copper eased with it. Silver fell 6.38%, the heaviest decline in the sector, with Gold off 2.31%, Palladium 1.84%, Platinum 1.01% and Copper 0.27%. The pause of a week earlier turned into a broad decline: Silver extended the slide it had begun, handing back far more than the 1.47% it had eased the prior week, and Gold slipped further from its recovery. On the weekly charts the precious metals dropped deeper into the pullback from their highs, the two-week loss of momentum now a clear move lower rather than a stall, while Copper eased off the top of its range after weeks of strength, though its longer uptrend held. The sector average of -2.36% sits on a broad decline led by Silver rather than the narrow, mixed prints of recent weeks.

Soft Commodities (-3.39% | prev +3.73%)

From the top of the board to the bottom, Soft Commodities dropped to -3.39% as every contract that had carried the sector a week earlier reversed. Cocoa fell 8.77%, the heaviest decline in the sector, reversing its 20.43% surge, with Coffee off 4.17% after a 10.97% gain, Cotton 3.57% after 5.73%, Lumber 0.47% and Sugar 0.34%, while Orange Juice continued lower at a shallower 3.02% after its 16.72% drop. All six contracts finished lower, an exact inversion of the week before when five of six had risen. The weekly charts show Cocoa swinging back down from the spike it had made and Coffee rolling over from the climb it had extended for weeks, while Orange Juice pressed further toward the lows it had spiked from, its decline now shallower as the earlier collapse ran its course. The split that had run through the sector closed into a single direction, every contract turning lower together where the leadership had passed back and forth in the weeks before.

Grains (+1.92% | prev +5.25%)

Grains held a narrower advance, the sector easing to +1.92% as the broad move of a week earlier thinned to the top of the complex. Wheat rose 6.64% and Soybean Oil 6.17%, the two leaders, with Canola up 2.98%, Rough Rice 1.26%, Corn 1.19% and Soybeans 1.07%, while Soybean Meal eased 0.06% and Oats reversed to a 3.93% fall. Six of eight contracts finished higher, but the tight, one-way cluster of the prior week gave way to a split, Wheat and Soybean Oil holding their climbs while Oats surrendered the 6.42% it had gained. On the weekly charts Wheat and Soybean Oil extended the lift they had begun, pressing up off the lower part of their ranges, while Oats reversed the bounce it had made and Soybean Meal stalled. The sector average of +1.92% sits on a thinner, top-heavy advance rather than the broad, all-eight move of the week before, the first crack in the complex since it turned up together.

Meats (-1.45% | prev -1.03%)

The Meats fell again and by more than a week earlier, easing to -1.45% as both cattle contracts dropped harder while Lean Hogs pushed higher. Live Cattle fell 4.58% and Feeder Cattle 2.44%, both deeper declines than the prior week, while Lean Hogs rose 2.68%, extending its stronger tone. The same split as recent weeks held, the cattle side lower and the hogs higher, but the cattle moves widened where they had shallowed the week before. On the weekly charts the cattle contracts dropped further from the top of the ranges they had held for months, a third leg of pullback that has now steepened rather than eased, while Lean Hogs pushed up off the ground it had recovered. The sector average of -1.45% reflects the two cattle declines outweighing the larger hog gain, a deeper fall than previously as the cattle moves regained force.

Bonds (+0.16% | prev -0.53%)

Bonds strengthened across the curve, reversing the easing of a week earlier with the long end strongest. The 30 Year Bond rose 0.22%, the 10 Year Note 0.21%, the 5 Year Note 0.15% and the 2 Year Note 0.07%, a clean gradient with the long end stronger than the front and the sector average at +0.16%. That turns back up after the give-back across the curve the prior week, the same shape reversed, the long end that had led the decline now leading the recovery. The weekly charts show prices steadying off the lower part of the range the contracts have traced through the spring, the long end recovering first and the move running alongside the pullback in the Equity Indices rather than against it, while the front end stayed anchored. The move was small in size but clean in shape, the mirror of the easing it followed.

Currencies (+0.33% | prev +0.12%)

The basket strengthened modestly as the commodity-linked dollars led and the US dollar eased. The USD index fell 0.17%, giving back the small uptick of a week earlier, with NZD leading the gainers at +1.33%, CAD up 0.97% as it tracked the energy surge, AUD 0.45%, GBP 0.41%, EUR 0.14% and CHF 0.05%, while JPY eased 0.53%, leaving the sector average at +0.33%. The commodity dollars that had held their ground the prior week pushed higher, NZD and CAD the clear leaders as crude and the wider commodity complex rose, while the yen unwound part of its recent move and the European crosses steadied. The weekly charts show the USD index easing back from the upper part of its recent range, the move reading as a soft turn lower in the basket led by the commodity currencies rather than a broad dollar trend, CAD in particular strengthening in step with the energy move.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX jumped 10.91% as implied volatility turned up sharply, reversing the two weeks of decline that had carried it toward its lows and rising in step with the pullback across the Equity Indices. Bitcoin rose 2.77%, extending the small gain it had made a week earlier and building on the ground it had recovered. The weekly chart keeps Bitcoin inside the broader range it has held for months, the latest gain reading as a continuation of the recovery rather than a break higher, though it held firm while the Equity Indices fell, standing apart from the risk-off tone that lifted the VIX. Where volatility rose with the equity decline, Bitcoin traded on its own footing, strengthening as the broad risk assets softened rather than tracking them lower.

Top Movers

The two lists run in opposite directions by sector, and the shape has changed again from a week earlier. The upside is unusually concentrated, the four petroleum contracts taking the top four places and the VIX the fifth, an energy-and-volatility block with nothing else near it. The downside is scattered by contrast: Cocoa reversing its 20.43% surge, Silver extending its slide, the Nikkei 225 and the Nasdaq 100 leading the equity pullback, and Live Cattle dropping again. Crude Oil Brent’s 15.91% gain was the largest single move on the board this week, the petroleum complex clustered just behind it, while Cocoa’s 8.77% drop led the downside, the mirror of the surge it had made the week before. The contrast is the week in miniature: a narrow, powerful set of energy gains against a broad, scattered set of declines drawn from the sectors that had led the board the prior week.

Portfolio View

The week rotated again, and the rotation cut against the books still carrying the prior week’s leaders. The reminder in it was the same one that recurs: portfolio returns depend less on how many markets trend than on whether the trends already held survive. This week many did not. Cocoa swung from a 20.43% surge to an 8.77% fall, Coffee from a 10.97% gain to a 4.17% decline, the grains handed back part of their broad advance and Silver extended its slide, reversals that whipsawed positions built on the commodity leadership of a week earlier. The trend that paid was the energy complex, and it paid most where books had already held Heating Oil and caught crude’s turn rather than chased the sharpest gains as they built this week. The clearest directional contributor was the split between the trends that survived and those that broke: the reversals in the softs and the grains outweighed the energy continuation carried into the week, pulling the year’s figure back by roughly 0.53 of a point to +8.09% even as overall trend strength rose. The week favoured books that had rotated early into the energy trend over those still positioned along the commodity leadership now turning over.

Final Reflections

The defining feature of the week was a rotation that lifted trend strength even as it cost trend followers a little. The TTU Barometer rose to 50%, moving from Moderately Weak to Strong as the reading recovered above the 40% floor and back up toward the 55% favourable threshold, yet the SG Trend Index gave back roughly 0.53 of a point to +8.09% year to date and deepened within the month to -0.95%, even as contract-level breadth turned negative at 23 of 49 contracts higher against 26 lower, none unchanged. The market offered a little more trend strength but a little less trend-follower reward this week, the inverse of the week before and a return to the configuration of the weeks before that.

Last week falling trend strength sat alongside the commodity trends that held and paid; this week rising trend strength sat alongside the reversals of those same trends, and the books still carrying them gave back part of the year’s gain.

1. The barometer rose as the moves turned large and coherent, the same reading driven higher by the opposite pattern from the week before.

The five-week sequence (45, 55, 64, 39, 50) rose to 50% this week, up 11 points and recovering close to half of the prior week’s 25-point fall, lifting from below the Neutral floor back up toward the favourable threshold. It rose even as breadth turned negative, 23 of 49 contracts higher against 26 lower, where a week earlier it had fallen while breadth stayed positive. The point holds either way: the barometer counts how strongly and persistently markets are trending, in either direction, not which way they point, so it can rise on a week of large, one-way sector moves just as it fell on a week of broad reversals before. The energy complex running as a block, the Equity Indices falling together and Silver and the precious metals extending lower all added to the count of markets trending decisively, a set of coherent moves that firmed the reading the barometer measures. The 10-day rate of change reads Neutral, up from last week’s Falling Rapidly, so the near-term pace has stopped falling as the weekly level climbed, the two measures now pointing the same way. Rising trend strength says more markets are moving decisively; portfolio returns still depend on whether those moves are the ones a book already holds.

2. The reversals that cost fell on the trends that had paid the week before, while the energy continuation paid but could not outweigh them, the pattern that pulled the index down even as it lifted the barometer.

The softs, the grains and Silver produced the reversals that cost this week, while the energy complex produced the continuation that paid, and the balance between them is the whole of the story. Cocoa swung from a 20.43% surge to an 8.77% fall, Coffee from a 10.97% gain to a 4.17% decline, the grains handed back part of their broad advance and Silver extended its slide to 6.38%, reversals that whipsawed positions built on the prior week’s leadership. Against them Heating Oil extended from 11.66% to 14.39% and crude ran higher off the turn it had made, a continuation that paid the books already holding it, though the sharpest gains in Brent, WTI and Gasoline RBOB built only as this week opened. The barometer reads the persistence and strength of trends in either direction, so it rose as the energy block and the decisive declines firmed the count; the index reads the profit and loss of positions carried through the week, so it eased as the reversals in the sectors that had led outweighed the energy gains that books were still building into. The largest, most coherent trend this week sat with the energy complex, and the books that had rotated toward it early were the ones it paid.

For trend followers, the week was not defined by whether markets rose or fell. It was defined by whether the moves were persistent enough to be captured. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

One question frames the week ahead: Can the energy breakout harden into a trend that holds, as crude keeps its footing and the refined products run with it, or does it prove another one-week spike in leadership, the way Cocoa and the softs surged and reversed before it? The answer will say less about where prices travel than about whether leadership can finally persist long enough for trend followers to harvest it.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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“Commodities Take the Lead: Grains Advance Broadly and Energy Firms as Heating Oil Runs, Cocoa Surges While Orange Juice Reverses, the Barometer Falls to 39% and Moderately Weak, and the SG Trend Index Edges Higher”

This Week in Trend – 10 July 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 10 July 2026.

Leadership rotated decisively this week as commodity markets took control while many of the previous week's leaders reversed. Grains led the board at +5.25%, all eight contracts higher, Wheat up 6.75% and Oats 6.42% as the whole complex lifted together. Energy firmed to +2.93%, Heating Oil running 11.66% and the crude band turning back up, Crude Oil Brent 5.39% and Crude Oil WTI 3.96%, while Natural Gas fell 8.01%. Soft Commodities held near the top at +3.73%, this week carried by Cocoa's 20.43% surge, the largest single move on the board, and Coffee's 10.97% rise, while Orange Juice reversed to -16.72% after last week's spike. Against the commodity advance the financial sectors softened: the Equity Indices eased to -0.32% as the European indices fell, the DAX off 2.88% and the Euro Stoxx 50 2.34% while the US large caps firmed toward records, Bonds eased across the curve at -0.53%, and the Meats fell 1.03% as both cattle contracts rolled lower again. Metals stalled at +0.09% as the precious rebound paused and the VIX fell 5.29% for a second week. Contract-level breadth held positive at 31 of 49 contracts higher, with 18 lower and none unchanged, against 29 higher, 20 lower and none unchanged the week before.

Inside the complex the leadership changed hands, the commodity sectors carrying the board while several of the recent leaders reversed. Grains firmed across all eight contracts, Wheat and Oats leading at +6.75% and +6.42%, with Soybean Oil, Canola, Soybeans, Soybean Meal, Rough Rice and Corn all higher, the first broad advance the sector has made in weeks. Energy firmed as the refined products and the crude band rose together this week, Heating Oil up 11.66%, Crude Oil Brent 5.39% and Crude Oil WTI 3.96%, while Natural Gas fell 8.01% as the lone heavy decliner. Soft Commodities held near the top on Cocoa and Coffee even as Orange Juice reversed hard, the leadership passing back to Cocoa from Orange Juice in a mirror of the handoff the week before. The Equity Indices split, the US large caps firming back toward records while the European indices fell, and Metals stalled as Copper firmed 1.83% but Silver gave back 1.47% and Gold eased 0.29%. The dollar firmed modestly, the USD index up 0.13% as EUR, JPY and CHF eased and the commodity dollars held, Bonds eased across the curve with the long end weakest, and the Meats fell as both cattle contracts dropped again while Lean Hogs firmed.

Trend Indicators:  Barometer Falls to 39% and Moderately Weak, SG Trend Index Edges Higher

TTU Trend Barometer: 39%, down from 64% last week, with the overall trend strength classification moving from Very Strong to Moderately Weak as the reading fell through the Neutral band and below the 40% boundary into a cold environment. The 10-day rate of change reads Falling Rapidly, a sharp turn from last week's Rising Weakly as the near-term pace rolled over hard. The five-week sequence now reads 43, 45, 55, 64, 39: the reading fell 25 points this week, reversing the prior week's 9-point rise and dropping from well inside the favourable band all the way below the Neutral floor.

The 25-point fall came as the persistence of trends broke down even though this week's breadth stayed positive. Many of the strongest trends of recent weeks reversed: Orange Juice swung from a 20.32% surge to a 16.72% fall, Silver from a 5.26% gain to a 1.47% decline, and the European equity indices from firm advances to sharp drops, while fresh moves elsewhere, Cocoa's 20.43% surge, the broad grains advance and Heating Oil's continued run, were too young to count as established trends.

The barometer measures the share of markets generating medium-to-strong trends, not this week's direction, so a board where 31 of 49 contracts finished higher can still show falling trend strength when the higher closes come from reversals rather than continuations.

The count of markets trending decisively fell as the prior week's leaders turned and the new leaders had only just begun to move. The Falling Rapidly rate of change turned sharply lower from the Rising Weakly of a week earlier, so the near-term read now points down at a quick pace: at 39% the level has dropped from well inside the favourable band through Neutral and below the 40% floor into a cold environment.

SG Trend Index: –0.46% month to date for July and +8.62% year to date as of 10 July. That compares with -0.74% MTD and +8.32% YTD at the prior week's close: the year-to-date figure added roughly 0.30 of a percentage point over the week, and July recovered from -0.74% to -0.46% inside the month. The gain sat with the trends that persisted rather than the ones that turned. Coffee extended its climb, up 10.97% after 8.97% a week earlier, Heating Oil ran 11.66% after 4.98%, Natural Gas continued lower at -8.01%, and the grains advanced broadly, a set of moves that paid books positioned along them. Against those, the sharp reversals cost: Orange Juice swung from a 20.32% surge to a 16.72% fall, Silver from a 5.26% gain to a 1.47% decline, and the European indices rolled from firm to sharply lower, whipsawing any continuation exposure built during the preceding week. This week the index firmed while the barometer fell into a cold environment, the two pulling apart again but with the signs flipped: previously rising trend strength sat alongside a softer index; this week falling trend strength sits alongside a firmer one. The divergence to note is that the trends which paid were the ones that held their direction, while the fall in the barometer reflects how many others reversed.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Indices (-0.32% | prev +1.92%)

The advance stalled and split, the sector easing to -0.32% as the European indices fell while the US large caps firmed. The DAX dropped 2.88% and the Euro Stoxx 50 2.34%, reversing the leads they had taken the week before, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.61%, the Nikkei 225 1.32% and the S&P 500 1.22%, and the DJIA and the Russell 2000 eased 0.52% and 0.67%. The longer-term picture holds: the US indices are pressing back toward the record territory they reached earlier, so the week reads as a rotation within the sector rather than a break of the trend. The leadership passed from Europe, which led last week's advance, back to the US megacaps, an exact reversal of the handoff the week before, with the European indices now the drag and the small caps still lagging.

Energy (+2.93% | prev +1.22%)

The sector firmed broadly this week as the refined products and the crude band rose together, a shift from last week's split. Heating Oil ran 11.66%, extending its climb, with Crude Oil Brent up 5.39%, Crude Oil WTI 3.96%, Gasoline RBOB 2.31% and Ethanol 2.26%, while Natural Gas fell 8.01% as the lone decliner and the heaviest drag in the sector. Zooming out, crude turned up off the lower part of the range it had pressed for weeks, the bounce joining the refined products that had already been firming, so this week the sector moved higher across five of six contracts rather than on a two-way split. Natural Gas ran the other way, extending its decline and giving back more than the rest of the sector gained on any single contract. Whether the crude bounce holds or fades back into the longer decline is the open question the weekly chart leaves.

Metals (+0.09% | prev +2.46%)

The complex stalled near flat, the rebound of the week before pausing as the precious side gave back part of its bounce. Copper firmed 1.83%, the strongest of the five, while Palladium rose 0.30% and Platinum 0.06%, and Gold eased 0.29% and Silver fell 1.47%. Structurally the precious metals paused within the larger pullback from their highs, Silver handing back a portion of the 5.26% it had gained the week before and Gold slipping after its recovery, so the two-week bounce reads as having lost momentum rather than resumed the earlier advance. Copper held near the top of its range and stayed the firmest structure of the five, its uptrend intact.

Soft Commodities (+3.73% | prev +5.20%)

The sector held near the top of the board, this week carried by Cocoa rather than Orange Juice. Cocoa surged 20.43%, the largest single move on the board, with Coffee up 10.97%, Cotton 5.73%, Lumber 1.75% and Sugar 0.20%, while Orange Juice reversed to -16.72%. Five of six contracts rose, and the leadership passed back to Cocoa, which had reversed lower the week before, from Orange Juice, which gave back most of the 20.32% spike it had made. The weekly charts show Cocoa swinging back up from the pullback it had made and Coffee extending a climb that has now run for weeks, while Orange Juice collapsed back toward the lows it had spiked from, the one-week surge failing to hold. The split that runs through this sector held, but the two contracts on either side of it traded places again, a mirror of the handoff the week before.

Grains (+5.25% | prev +0.05%)

The sector led the board this week, all eight contracts higher in the first broad advance it has made in weeks. Wheat rose 6.75% and Oats 6.42%, with Soybean Oil up 5.53%, Canola 5.31%, Soybeans and Soybean Meal both 4.88%, Rough Rice 4.30% and Corn 3.90%, a tight cluster of gains across the whole complex. On the weekly timeframe the grains lifted together off the lower part of the ranges they had traced for months, Soybean Oil and Rough Rice reversing higher after the declines they had made the week before and Oats extending a bounce already underway. The sector average of +5.25% sits on top of a broad, one-way move rather than the narrow split of recent weeks, the first time the complex has moved as a group in either direction for some time.

Meats (-1.03% | prev -1.47%)

The sector fell again as both cattle contracts eased and only Lean Hogs firmed, the same split as the week before but shallower. Feeder Cattle dropped 1.67% and Live Cattle 1.68%, less than half the declines they had made the week before, while Lean Hogs rose 0.25%. The weekly charts show the cattle contracts continuing to ease back from the top of the ranges they had held for months, a second week of pullback from firm levels rather than a break of the longer uptrends, while Lean Hogs held near the ground it had recovered. The sector average of -1.03% reflects the two cattle declines outweighing the small hog gain, a lighter fall than the week before as the cattle moves lost some of their force.

Bonds (-0.53% | prev -0.69%)

The complex eased across the curve again, the long end weakest and the move a shade shallower than the week before. The 30 Year Bond fell 1.14%, the 10 Year Note 0.50%, the 5 Year Note 0.34% and the 2 Year Note 0.14%, a clean gradient with the long end softer than the front and the sector average at -0.53%. That extends the easing across the curve of the week before rather than reversing it. The weekly charts show prices continuing to give back ground toward the lower part of the range the contracts have traced through the spring, the long end leading the move lower for a second week as risk appetite in equities held firm and the front end stayed comparatively anchored.

Currencies (+0.12% | prev +0.47%)

The basket finished near flat as the dollar firmed modestly and the majors split. The USD index rose 0.13%, reversing part of the prior week's softening, with NZD leading the gainers at +1.15%, AUD up 0.49%, GBP 0.38% and CAD 0.17%, while EUR eased 0.18%, JPY 0.46% and CHF 0.69%, leaving the sector average at +0.12%. The commodity-linked dollars that had led the gains a week earlier held their ground, NZD and AUD both higher again, while the European and yen crosses gave back part of the earlier advance. The weekly charts show the USD index steadying in the upper part of its recent range after the give-back, the move this week reading as a pause in the basket rather than a fresh push through any single cross.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX fell 5.29% for a second week as implied volatility pressed further toward its lows, easing even as the Equity Indices finished mixed, the European drop offset by the firmer US large caps. Bitcoin rose 0.62%, cooling from the 4.84% bounce it had made the week before and holding the ground it had recovered. The weekly chart keeps Bitcoin inside the broader downtrend that has run for months: where the US indices sit back near record territory, Bitcoin remains well below its late-2025 high, so the small weekly gain reads as consolidation of last week's bounce rather than a turn of the larger decline. The contract drifted this week rather than tracking the broad tone closely, the risk-on impulse that had carried it the week before fading as the move across risk assets became more mixed.

Top Movers

The two lists run in opposite directions by sector, but the shape has changed from a week earlier. The upside is led by the commodity sectors, Cocoa and Coffee taking two of the top three, Wheat and Oats bringing the grains and Heating Oil the energy complex, a broad, commodity-led set of gains. The downside is more scattered: Orange Juice reversing its 20.32% spike, Natural Gas extending its decline, the VIX easing for a second week, and the two European equity indices giving back the leads they had taken earlier. Cocoa's 20.43% gain was the largest single move in the dataset in either direction, a swing back up from the pullback it had made, while Orange Juice's 16.72% drop led the downside, the mirror image of the previous week's surge. The contrast is the week in miniature: a broad set of commodity gains against a smaller, scattered set of declines built largely from the reversals of the previous week's leaders.

Portfolio View

The week rotated, and the rotation cut both ways for continuation books. The reminder in it was that portfolio returns depend less on how many markets trend than on whether the trends already held survive. The gains came from the ones that did: Coffee extended its climb, Heating Oil ran further, Natural Gas continued lower, and the grains advanced as a block, persistent moves that paid books positioned along them. Against those, the reversals cost, Orange Juice swinging from a 20.32% surge to a 16.72% fall, Silver from a 5.26% gain to a 1.47% decline, and the European equity indices rolling from the leads they had taken into sharp drops. The clearest directional contributor was the split between continuation and reversal: the commodity positions that persisted outweighed the reversals elsewhere, lifting the year's figure by roughly 0.30 of a point to +8.62% even as overall trend strength fell. The week favoured books that stayed with the commodity trends already in force over those that had chased leadership now turning over.

Final Reflections

The defining feature of the week was a rotation that pulled trend strength lower even as it paid trend followers a little. The TTU Barometer fell to 39%, moving from Very Strong to Moderately Weak and dropping below the Neutral band into a cold environment, yet the SG Trend Index added roughly 0.30 of a point to +8.62% year to date and recovered within the new month to -0.46%, even as contract-level breadth held positive at 31 of 49 contracts higher against 18 lower, none unchanged. The market offered less trend strength but a little more trend-follower reward this week, the exact inverse of the two weeks before.

Last week rising trend strength sat against long books and cost them; this week falling trend strength sat alongside the commodity trends that held, and those trends paid.

1. The barometer fell as trends reversed, the same reading driven lower by the opposite pattern from the week before.

The five-week sequence (43, 45, 55, 64, 39) fell to 39% this week, down 25 points and reversing the prior week's 9-point rise, dropping from well inside the favourable band below the Neutral floor into a cold environment. It fell even as breadth stayed positive, 31 of 49 contracts higher against 18 lower, where last week it had risen while counting the same kind of positive breadth. The point holds either way: the barometer counts how strongly and persistently markets are trending, in either direction, not which way they point, so it can fall on a week of broad but reversing moves just as it rose on a broad advance the week before. Orange Juice reversing its spike, Silver handing back its bounce and the European indices rolling over all pulled the reading lower, a set of turns that broke the persistence the barometer measures. The 10-day rate of change reads Falling Rapidly, a sharp turn from last week's Rising Weakly, so the near-term tilt now points down at a quick pace, with the level at 39% below the Neutral floor in a cold environment. Falling trend strength says fewer markets are moving decisively; portfolio returns still depend on whether the moves that do persist are the ones a book already holds.

2. The trends that paid were the ones that held their direction, while the largest reversals cost, the pattern that lifted the index even as it pulled the barometer down.

The grains, Coffee, Heating Oil and the Natural Gas short produced the gains that held this week, while Orange Juice, Silver and the European indices produced the reversals, and the distinction is the whole of the story. Coffee ran from an 8.97% gain to a 10.97% one, Heating Oil from 4.98% to 11.66%, and the grains lifted as a block, continuations that paid positions already along them. Orange Juice swung from a 20.32% surge to a 16.72% fall, Silver from a 5.26% gain to a 1.47% decline, and the European indices from firm to sharply lower, reversals that whipsawed positions built on the prior week's moves. The barometer reads the persistence of trends, so it fell as those turns broke it; the index reads the profit and loss of positions carried through the week, so it firmed as the continuations outweighed the reversals. The clearest, most persistent trends this week sat with the commodity sectors, and the books positioned along them were paid.

For trend followers, the week was not defined by whether markets rose or fell. It was defined by whether the moves were persistent enough to be captured. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

One question frames the week ahead: Does the rotation into the commodity sectors harden into sustained trends as the grains and Energy extend and Cocoa and Coffee run, or do this week's reversals mark a market still turning its leadership over week by week, trending hard in patches without holding any single set of moves long enough for the barometer to firm again?

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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“Risk Appetite Returns: the Equity Indices and Metals Rebound, Soft Commodities Lead Again as Orange Juice Surges, Volatility Collapses, and the Barometer Climbs to 64% and Very Strong as the SG Trend Index Slips Again”

This Week in Trend – 3 July 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 3 July 2026.

The week rebounded across most of the board, reversing much of the prior week's decline. Metals recovered to +2.46%, Silver up 5.26% and Palladium 4.27% as the precious complex bounced back, and the Equity Indices resumed their advance at +1.92%, the DAX up 4.46% and the Euro Stoxx 50 3.02% while the US indices firmed back toward record territory. Soft Commodities led the board again at +5.20%, this week carried by Orange Juice's 20.32% surge and Coffee's 8.97% rise rather than by Cocoa, which reversed to -4.02%. Bitcoin bounced 4.84% after months of decline and the VIX fell 8.18% as equities recovered, the largest single move on the board. Against the advance, Bonds eased across the curve at -0.69% and the Meats fell 1.47% as both cattle contracts rolled lower. Contract-level breadth flipped to 29 of 49 contracts higher, with 20 lower and none unchanged, against 19 higher, 30 lower and none unchanged the week before.

Inside the complex the leadership sat on the upside this week, a near mirror of the week before. The Equity Indices firmed across the board, all seven contracts higher, the European indices leading while the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 climbed back from last week's pullback and only the Russell 2000 and the Nikkei 225 lagged near flat. Metals rose across all five contracts, Silver, Palladium and Gold recovering the ground they had given up while Copper and Platinum firmed more modestly. Energy split: the refined products rallied hard, Heating Oil up 4.98% and Gasoline RBOB 4.50%, while the crude band stayed soft, Crude Oil WTI off 0.65% and Crude Oil Brent 0.87%, so the sector average of +1.22% masked a two-way move. Soft Commodities led on Orange Juice and Coffee even as Cocoa reversed sharply, and Grains finished near flat as Oats jumped 6.52% against declines in Soybean Oil and Rough Rice. The dollar softened, the USD index down 0.50% as the majors firmed, Bonds eased across the curve with the long end weakest, and the Meats fell as Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle both dropped more than 3%.

Trend Indicators:  Barometer Climbs to 64% and Very Strong, SG Trend Index Slips Again

TTU Trend Barometer: 64%, up from 55% last week, with the overall trend strength classification moving from Strong up to Very Strong as the reading pushed well past the 55% threshold and further into the favourable band. The 10-day rate of change reads Rising Weakly, unchanged from last week's pace even as the weekly level rose again. The five-week sequence now reads 43, 43, 45, 55, 64: the reading rose 9 points this week, extending the prior week's 10-point rise and lifting from the favourable boundary further into favourable territory.

The 9-point rise came as trend strength built on a broad recovery rather than the downside declines that had lifted it the week before. The Equity Indices resumed their advance from record territory, the precious metals rebounded, Bitcoin bounced and volatility collapsed, a set of firm, persistent moves that carried the share of markets generating medium-to-strong trends higher. The barometer measures whether markets are trending, not whether those trends match the ones a portfolio already holds or which way they point, so this week's rise reflects more markets moving with force, most of them higher, where last week's rise had reflected markets moving lower. Orange Juice and Coffee ran hard on the upside while Cocoa, Rough Rice and the cattle contracts reversed the moves they had made the week before, and a handful of grains and currencies chopped, but on balance the count of strongly trending markets rose again. The Rising Weakly rate of change holds at last week's pace even as the weekly level climbed, so the near-term read still points higher but at a weak, steady pace rather than an accelerating one: at 64% the level now sits well inside the favourable band rather than at its lower edge.

SG Trend Index: –0.74% month to date for July and +8.32% year to date as of 3 July, with June now closed. That compares with -1.25% MTD for June and +9.03% YTD at last week's close: the year-to-date figure gave back roughly 0.71 of a percentage point over the week, a slightly deeper move than the 0.50 of a point it shed the week before, and the new month opened at -0.74%. The give-back fits the week's shape less obviously than last week's did, because the market reversed: the Equity Indices climbed back from records and the precious metals rebounded, moves that would have helped books positioned long in those trends, yet the index still slipped. The cost sat in the reversals. Cocoa swung from a 20.25% surge to a 4.02% decline, Rough Rice from an 8.32% gain to a 1.19% fall, and both cattle contracts rolled from firm to sharply lower, so continuation exposure built during last week's moves was caught as those moves turned. The refined energy products ran hard against any short held in the complex, Heating Oil up 4.98% and Gasoline RBOB 4.50%, while the crude band stayed soft. This week the barometer firmed while the index slipped for a second week, the two pulling apart again, but the character changed: last week the new strength pointed lower, against long books; this week it pointed higher, yet the sharp week-over-week reversal whipsawed positions faster than the fresh trends could pay. Rising trend strength sitting alongside a softer index is again the divergence to note, and this week it reads as the cost of a turn rather than the direction of one.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Indices (+1.92% | prev -1.63%)

The advance resumed after last week's pause, all seven contracts higher. The DAX led at +4.46% and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 3.02%, with the S&P 500 up 2.10%, the DJIA 1.83% and the Nasdaq 100 1.82%, while the Nikkei 225 and the Russell 2000 lagged near flat at +0.16% and +0.03%. The longer-term picture stays intact: the multi-month uptrend holds and the US indices are climbing back toward the record territory they had touched before last week's pullback, so the week reads as a resumption of the advance rather than a fresh breakout. The European indices led this week where the megacaps had led the pullback the week before, a rotation within the sector as it recovered, with only the small caps and the Nikkei 225 left behind.

Energy (+1.22% | prev -3.18%)

The sector firmed on a sharp split between the refined products and the crude band. Heating Oil rose 4.98% and Gasoline RBOB 4.50%, with Ethanol up 0.37%, while Crude Oil WTI fell 0.65%, Crude Oil Brent 0.87% and Natural Gas 1.04%. Zooming out, the refined products are bouncing off the lower part of their ranges while crude continues to press near the bottom of the decline it has traced for weeks, so the sector average of +1.22% sits on top of a two-way move rather than a broad recovery. The refined products ran against the persistent short in the complex this week, while the crude band stayed soft and Natural Gas eased, the split leaving the sector higher on average but far from uniformly firm.

Metals (+2.46% | prev -5.54%)

The complex rebounded, all five contracts higher and the precious side leading the recovery. Silver rose 5.26%, with Palladium up 4.27% and Gold 2.22%, while Platinum and Copper firmed more modestly at +0.28% and +0.27%. Structurally the precious complex is recovering a portion of the sharp decline it had made the week before, Silver bouncing off the level it had fallen to and Gold firming back from its pullback, though both moves read so far as a recovery within the larger pullback from the highs rather than a return to the earlier advance. Copper held near the top of its range and firmed with the sector, its uptrend still the firmest of the five.

Soft Commodities (+5.20% | prev +1.96%)

The sector led the board again, this week carried by Orange Juice and Coffee rather than Cocoa. Orange Juice surged 20.32%, the largest single move on the board, with Coffee up 8.97%, Sugar 5.32%, Lumber 0.40% and Cotton 0.19%, while Cocoa reversed to -4.02%. Five of six contracts rose, and the leadership passed from Cocoa, which had carried the sector the week before, to Orange Juice, which ran the other way from the new lows it had been pressing toward. The weekly charts show Orange Juice spiking hard off the bottom of a long decline and Coffee firming from lower levels, while Cocoa gave back part of its two-week surge, the reversal that had looked like it might be turning into more than a bounce stalling this week. The split that has run through this sector held, but the contracts on either side of it changed places.

Grains (+0.05% | prev +0.47%)

The sector finished near flat, the split flipping again as Oats led and the oilseeds and rice lagged. Oats jumped 6.52%, the largest move in the sector, while Soybeans, Canola, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn all eased in a tight band between -0.07% and -0.29%, and Rough Rice fell 1.19% and Soybean Oil 3.98%. On the weekly timeframe Oats is bouncing sharply higher while Soybean Oil rolled over from the firmer ground it had reached and Rough Rice gave back the sharp gain it had made the week before. The sector average of +0.05% sits on top of that two-way split, one large gainer against a cluster of small declines and two heavier ones, Oats carrying almost the entire sector on its own.

Meats (-1.47% | prev +0.01%)

The sector fell as both cattle contracts rolled lower and only Lean Hogs firmed. Feeder Cattle dropped 3.40% and Live Cattle 3.24%, while Lean Hogs rose 2.23%, the split that runs through this sector widening from the near balance of the week before. The weekly charts show the cattle contracts easing back from the top of the ranges they had held for months, a pullback from firm levels rather than a break of the longer uptrends, while Lean Hogs firmed off the lower ground it had fallen to. The sector average of -1.47% reflects the two cattle declines outweighing the hog bounce, a heavier week for the sector that pulled it from flat into the red.

Bonds (-0.69% | prev +0.47%)

The complex eased across the curve, the long end weakest. The 30 Year Bond fell 1.62%, the 10 Year Note 0.65%, the 5 Year Note 0.39% and the 2 Year Note 0.09%, a clean gradient with the long end softer than the front and the sector average at -0.69%. That reverses the firming across the curve of the week before. The weekly charts show prices easing back from the modest bounce they had made, giving up ground toward the lower part of the range the contracts have traced through the spring, with the long end leading the move lower as equities recovered and risk appetite firmed.

Currencies (+0.47% | prev -0.64%)

The dollar softened while the non-dollar majors firmed broadly, reversing the week before. The USD index fell 0.50%, with NZD leading the gainers at +1.25%, GBP up 1.18%, CHF 0.68%, AUD 0.65%, EUR 0.42% and JPY 0.17%, while CAD eased 0.11%, leaving the sector average at +0.47%. The commodity-linked dollars that had taken the heaviest losses the week before firmed this week, NZD and AUD both higher, while CAD was the lone decliner in the basket. The weekly charts show the USD index giving back part of the recovery it had made through the spring, easing from the upper part of its recent range as the majors firmed across the basket rather than through any single cross.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX fell 8.18% as the Equity Indices recovered and implied volatility dropped back toward its lows, the largest single move on the board and a sharp reversal of the firming it had made the week before. Bitcoin rose 4.84%, bouncing after a decline that has run for months and firming off the lower part of its range. The weekly chart keeps Bitcoin inside that broader downtrend despite the bounce: where the Equity Indices sit back near record territory, Bitcoin remains well below its late-2025 high, so the weekly gain reads so far as a recovery within the established decline rather than a turn of it. The contract firmed with the broad risk-on tone this week, tracking the recovery in equities and metals more closely than it had during their pullback.

Top Movers

The two lists run in opposite directions by sector. The upside is led by the Soft Commodities, Orange Juice, Coffee and Sugar taking three of the five places, joined by Oats from the grains and Silver from the rebounding metals. The downside is more scattered: the VIX as volatility collapsed, Cocoa reversing its two-week surge, Soybean Oil from the grains, and both cattle contracts from the Meats. Orange Juice's 20.32% gain was the largest single move in the dataset in either direction, a sharp spike off the lows, while the VIX's 8.18% drop led the downside as equities recovered and implied volatility fell back. The contrast is the week in miniature: a broad, largely upside set of gains led by the softs and the rebounding metals against a smaller set of declines concentrated in volatility, the cattle and a pair of contracts reversing the moves they had made the week before.

Portfolio View

The week was a mirror of the prior one, and it cost continuation books in a different way. Where last week's declines had rewarded short exposure, this week the market reversed, and the reversal was the story. The Equity Indices climbed back from records, so long positioning that had been trimmed into last week's pullback was rewarded again, and the precious metals rebounded, helping long exposure that had carried the year's advance, Silver and Palladium the firmest. Against those, the sharp counter-moves cost: Cocoa swung from a 20.25% surge to a 4.02% decline and Rough Rice from an 8.32% gain to a 1.19% fall, so any position that had turned with those moves was caught as they reversed, and both cattle contracts rolled lower, trimming long exposure that had ridden their uptrends. The refined energy products ran hard against the persistent short in the crude complex, Heating Oil and Gasoline RBOB both up sharply, while the crude band itself stayed soft and cushioned the net. The clearest directional contributor cut both ways this week: the equity and metals recovery paid long books, but the abrupt reversal in the contracts that had led last week whipsawed positions faster than the fresh trends could pay. The net was a give-back of roughly 0.71 of a point on the year, a touch deeper than the prior week, as the cost of the turn outweighed the gains from the recovery. The week favoured books quick to turn with the reversal over those still positioned for last week's risk-off move.

Final Reflections

The defining feature of the week was a reversal that lifted trend strength again even as it cost trend followers a second time. The heaviest, most persistent moves sat on the upside this week, the Equity Indices resuming their advance, the precious metals rebounding, Bitcoin bouncing and volatility collapsing, while the largest declines, Cocoa, the cattle and Soybean Oil, came as reversals of the moves those contracts had made the week before. The TTU Barometer firmed to 64%, moving from Strong to Very Strong and pushing well inside the favourable band, yet the SG Trend Index gave back roughly 0.71 of a point to +8.32% year to date and opened the new month at -0.74%, even as contract-level breadth flipped positive at 29 of 49 contracts higher against 20 lower, none unchanged. The market offered more trend strength than trend-follower reward for a second week, but the reason changed.

Last week the new strength pointed lower, against long books; this week it pointed higher, yet the speed of the reversal whipsawed positions built for the week before.

1. The barometer firmed again, this time as most markets rose, the same reading driven by the opposite direction from the week before.

The five-week sequence (43, 43, 45, 55, 64) firmed to 64% this week, up 9 points and extending the prior week's 10-point rise, lifting from the favourable boundary well into favourable territory. It rose as breadth flipped positive, 29 of 49 contracts higher against 20 lower, where last week it had risen even as breadth stayed negative. The point holds either way: the barometer counts how strongly and persistently markets are trending, in either direction, not which way they point, so it can rise on a broad advance this week just as it rose on a broad decline the week before. The Equity Indices climbing from records, the precious metals rebounding, Bitcoin bouncing and volatility collapsing all fed the reading, a set of firm moves running higher where last week's had run lower. The 10-day rate of change reads Rising Weakly, unchanged from last week even as the weekly level climbed, so the near-term tilt still points higher but at a weak, steady pace, with the level at 64% now sitting well inside the favourable band. Rising trend strength says more markets are moving decisively; portfolio returns depend on whether those decisive moves are the ones a book already holds.

2. The week's largest moves were reversals, the gains and losses trading places with the week before, a pattern that costs trend followers even as it lifts the barometer.

Orange Juice and the rebounding metals produced the largest gains this week, while Cocoa, the cattle and Soybean Oil produced the largest declines, and several of those moves reversed the ones the same contracts had made the week before. Cocoa ran from a 20.25% surge to a 4.02% fall, Rough Rice from an 8.32% gain to a 1.19% decline, and the cattle rolled from firm to sharply lower, while the Equity Indices and the precious metals recovered the ground they had given up. For a trend follower the distinction is the point: a reversal is the move most likely to whipsaw a position established on the prior trend, and this week the market was full of them. The barometer reads the persistence of the new moves, so it firmed; the index reads the profit and loss of positions carried through the turn, so it slipped. The clearest, most persistent trends this week sat on the upside, but the speed with which they replaced last week's downside moves is what the week leaves behind.

One question frames the week ahead: does the recovery harden into a sustained trend as the Equity Indices push back to records and the metals extend their rebound, or does the whipsaw continue, last week's risk-off move and this week's risk-on reversal marking a market capable of trending hard in either direction without yet committing to one?

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document is directly solely to Accredited Investors, Qualified Eligible Participants, Qualified Clients and Qualified Purchasers. No investment decision should be made until prospective investors have read the detailed information in the fund offering documents of any manager mentioned in this document. This document is furnished on a confidential basis only for the use of the recipient and only for discussion purposes and is subject to amendment This document is neither advice nor a recommendation to enter into any transaction. This document is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any security or other financial instrument. This presentation is based on information obtained from sources that TopTradersUnplugged (“TTU”) (“considers to be reliable however, TTU makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information. TTU has not independently verified third party manager or benchmark information, does not represent it as accurate, true or complete, makes no warranty, express or implied regarding it and shall not be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses relating to its adequacy, accuracy, truth, completeness or use.

All projections, valuations, and statistical analyses are provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein. Such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may use one among many alternative methodologies that produce different results accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses should not be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate prediction of future events. There is no guarantee that any targeted performance will be achieved Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone

TTU is not and does not purport to be an advisor as to legal, taxation, accounting, financial or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. The recipient should independently evaluate and judge the matters referred to herein. TTU does not provide advice or recommendations regarding an investor’s decision to allocate to funds or accounts managed by any manager (“or to maintain or sell investments in funds or accounts managed by any manager, and no fiduciary relationship under ERISA is created by the investor investing in funds or accounts managed by any manager, or through any communication between TTU and the investor

In reviewing this document, it should be understood that the past performance results of any asset class, or any investment or trading program set forth herein, are not necessarily indicative of any future results that may be achieved in connection with any transaction. Any persons subscribing for an investment must be able to bear the risks involved and must meet the suitability requirements relating to such investment. Some or all alternative investment programs discussed herein may not be suitable for certain investors This document is directed only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such investment professionals. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely upon this document.

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

This document contains simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations AND SHOULD BE VIEWED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT ACCOUNT.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM OR OTHER ASSET.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those being shown.

“Risk-Off Rotation: the Petroleum Complex and Metals Lead a Broad Decline, the Equity Uptrend Pauses Near Records, and the Barometer Firms to 55% at the Favourable Boundary as the SG Trend Index Slips”

This Week in Trend – 26 June 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 26 June 2026.

The week turned lower across most of the board, the declines led by the petroleum complex and the metals while the long equity uptrend paused near record territory. Energy was among the heaviest sectors, Crude Oil Brent down 10.65% and Crude Oil WTI 8.73% as the petroleum band extended its breakdown, and Metals was weakest of all at -5.54%, Silver off 10.63% as the precious complex deepened its pullback. The equity indices gave back ground after last week’s broad advance, averaging -1.63% as the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.40% and the Nikkei 225 3.21% from records, while the VIX firmed 3.06% off its lows. Against the weakness, Cocoa surged 20.25% for a second strong week and Rough Rice rose 8.32%, the two largest gains on the board. Contract-level breadth held at 19 of 49 contracts higher, with 30 lower and none unchanged, against 19 higher, 28 lower and 2 unchanged the week before.

Inside the complex the leadership sat almost entirely on the downside. Energy carried lower as the petroleum complex extended a decline now in its third week, with only Natural Gas firmer at +0.28% and Heating Oil higher at +2.10% against the move. Metals eased across the board on the precious side, Silver, Palladium and Platinum all down sharply while Copper held near the top of its range despite a 3.75% slip. The equity indices split as they paused, the Nasdaq 100 and the Nikkei 225 pulling back hardest from records while the DJIA firmed 0.39% and the Russell 2000 0.75%. Soft Commodities led the few gains, Cocoa’s 20.25% surge carrying the sector average to +1.96% even as Orange Juice fell 6.74%, and Grains firmed on a sharp bounce in Rough Rice. The dollar firmed again, the USD index up 0.51% as the only gainer in its basket, Bonds rose across the curve with the long end leading, and Bitcoin extended its decline, slipping 4.91%.

Trend Indicators:   Barometer Firms to 55% at the Favourable Boundary, SG Trend Index Slips

TTU Trend Barometer: 55%, up from 45% last week, with the overall trend strength classification moving from Neutral up to Strong as the reading reached the 55% threshold, the line where Neutral gives way to a favourable environment. The 10-day rate of change reads Rising Weakly, firming from last week’s Falling Weakly pace as the weekly level rose. The five-week sequence now reads 32, 43, 43, 45, 55: the reading rose 10 points this week, lifting from the Neutral band it had held for the prior three weeks up to the favourable boundary.

The 10-point rise came as trend strength built on the downside rather than through a broad advance. The petroleum complex extended its breakdown, the precious metals deepened their decline, the equity indices rolled over from record territory and Bitcoin pressed lower, a set of sharp, persistent moves that lifted the share of markets generating medium-to-strong trends. The barometer measures whether markets are trending, not whether those trends match the ones a portfolio already holds or whether they point higher, so the rise reflects more markets moving with force, most of them lower, rather than any broadening of gains. Cocoa and Rough Rice ran the other way with large counter-trend bounces, and a handful of currencies and grains chopped, but on balance the count of strongly trending markets rose. The Rising Weakly rate of change runs with the weekly level this week rather than against it, the 10-day momentum firming only weakly alongside the rise, so the near-term read points mildly higher: at 55% the level now sits right at the favourable boundary rather than pressing against the Neutral edge from below.

SG Trend Index: -1.25% month to date for June and +9.03% year to date as of 26 June, compared with -0.80% MTD and +9.53% YTD at last week’s close. The index gave back roughly 0.50 of a percentage point on the year, a deeper move than the 0.10 of a point it shed the week before, and the June month-to-date figure extended to -1.25%. The give-back fits the week’s shape: the equity indices pulled back from records and the precious metals deepened their decline, moves that would have cost books positioned long in those trends, while the largest gains, Cocoa and Rough Rice, came as counter-trend bounces that a continuation book would not have fully held. The persistent short in the petroleum complex worked the other way and cushioned the net. This week the barometer firmed while the index slipped, the two pulling apart: the share of markets in medium-to-strong trends rose 10 points even as trend-follower performance edged lower. Rising trend strength sitting alongside a softer index is the divergence to note, and this week it is clear rather than mild, much of the new strength pointing in directions a long-biased continuation book was not carrying.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Index (-1.63% | prev +2.15%)

The advance paused after last week’s clean sweep, only two of seven contracts higher. The Russell 2000 led at +0.75% and the DJIA rose 0.39%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.40%, the Nikkei 225 3.21%, the S&P 500 2.23%, the DAX 1.43% and the Euro Stoxx 50 1.29%. The weekly charts keep the multi-month uptrend intact, the US indices and the Nikkei 225 still at or near record territory, so the week reads as a pullback from the highs rather than a turn. The split is worth noting: the megacap and Japanese indices gave back the most while the Dow and the small caps firmed, a rotation within the sector as it paused rather than a uniform retreat.

Energy (-3.18% | prev -3.65%)

The petroleum complex extended its decline for a third week, leaving Energy among the heaviest sectors on the board. Crude Oil Brent dropped 10.65% and Crude Oil WTI 8.73%, with Gasoline RBOB down 1.54% and Ethanol 0.53%, while Heating Oil rose 2.10% and Natural Gas 0.28% against the move. The weekly charts show crude pressing toward the lower part of its range as the spring spike unwinds in full rather than stabilising. The decline reads as a continuation lower, a move that has now run for three weeks and that a short position would have carried, with Heating Oil and Natural Gas the two contracts pulling the other way.

Metals (-5.54% | prev -2.48%)

The complex was the weakest sector on the board, all five contracts lower and the precious side leading. Silver fell 10.63%, with Palladium down 5.33%, Platinum 4.45%, Copper 3.75% and Gold 3.52%, the precious metals carrying the bulk of the decline. The weekly charts show the precious complex deepening the pullback that began in the spring: Silver has retraced a large part of its advance and Gold sits well off its winter high, so the move is starting to read as a sustained decline from the highs rather than a shallow pause, though both remain up on the year. Copper is the exception, holding near the top of its range despite the down week, its uptrend still the firmest in the sector.

Soft Commodities (+1.96% | prev +3.25%)

The sector led the board’s few gains, carried almost single-handedly by Cocoa. Cocoa surged 20.25%, with Sugar up 2.69% and Coffee 2.02%, while Lumber fell 2.34%, Cotton 4.13% and Orange Juice 6.74%. Three of six contracts rose, but Cocoa’s outsized move set the average. The weekly charts show Cocoa recovering a larger share of its long decline for a second week, a bounce now sizeable enough that it is beginning to look like more than a counter-trend pop, while Coffee and Sugar firmed modestly off lower levels. Orange Juice ran the other way, pressing toward new lows for its move, and Cotton and Lumber eased from firmer ground, so the split that has run through this sector held, with Cocoa carrying the weight on the upside.

Grains (+0.47% | prev -0.88%)

The sector firmed, the split flipping from the week before as the oilseeds and rice led and the cereals lagged. Rough Rice surged 8.32%, the largest move in the sector, with Soybean Oil up 2.03%, Canola 1.12%, Soybean Meal 0.96% and Soybeans 0.73%; on the other side Oats fell 4.63%, Wheat 3.95% and Corn 0.82%. The weekly charts show Rough Rice bouncing sharply off the lower end of a long decline, while the oilseeds firmed back toward the upper part of their ranges and Wheat and Oats eased after recent gains. The sector average of +0.47% sits on top of that two-way split, five contracts higher and three lower, Rough Rice and the firmer oilseeds outweighing the softer cereals.

Meats (+0.01% | prev +0.63%)

The sector finished essentially flat, the firmer Feeder Cattle offset by small declines elsewhere. Feeder Cattle rose 0.89%, while Live Cattle eased 0.32% and Lean Hogs 0.54%, the split that runs through this sector holding but tighter than the week before. The weekly charts keep both cattle contracts in the uptrends they have traced for months, Feeder Cattle near the top of its range, while Lean Hogs continued the decline that has pulled it well off its earlier highs. The sector average of +0.01% reflects the near balance between the firmer feeder cattle and the modest drag from live cattle and hogs, a quiet week that sits with the established trends in each.

Bonds (+0.47% | prev -0.07%)

The complex firmed across the curve, the long end leading. The 30 Year Bond rose 0.69%, the 10 Year Note 0.58%, the 5 Year Note 0.41% and the 2 Year Note 0.18%, a clean gradient with the long end firmer than the front and the sector average at +0.47%. That reverses the near-flat, mixed reading of the week before. The weekly charts show prices bouncing modestly off the lower part of the range the contracts have traced through the spring, a firming across the curve rather than a decisive turn, with the long end recovering the most.

Currencies (-0.64% | prev -0.86%)

The dollar firmed again while the non-dollar majors softened broadly, a continuation of the week before. The USD index rose 0.51%, the only gainer in the basket, while NZD led the decliners at -2.03%, with AUD down 1.71%, EUR 0.67%, CHF 0.66%, CAD 0.40%, JPY 0.10% and GBP 0.03%, leaving the sector average at -0.64%. The commodity-linked dollars took the heaviest losses, NZD and AUD the weakest, while GBP and JPY finished close to flat. The weekly charts show the USD index extending the recovery that began earlier in the spring, firming toward the upper part of its recent range, the majors giving back ground across the basket rather than through any single cross.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX rose 3.06% as the equity indices pulled back from records and implied volatility firmed off its recent lows, the index ticking up after weeks of drifting lower while equities climbed. Bitcoin fell 4.91%, extending the decline that has run for months and pressing toward the lower part of its range. The weekly chart keeps Bitcoin inside that downtrend, the contract tracking its own path rather than the equity tape: where the indices still sit near record territory despite this week’s pause, Bitcoin remains well below its late-2025 high and closer to its lows for the move. The weekly drop reads as a continuation of the established decline rather than a fresh break, the contract pressing lower within a trend already in place.

Top Movers

The two lists run in opposite directions by sector. The upside is scattered rather than concentrated this week, Cocoa and Sugar from Soft Commodities, Rough Rice from the grains, the VIX as volatility firmed, and Heating Oil the lone gainer in an otherwise falling energy complex. The downside is concentrated in Energy and Metals: Crude Oil Brent and Crude Oil WTI from the petroleum band and Silver and Palladium from the precious metals take four of the five places, joined by Orange Juice from the softs. Cocoa’s 20.25% gain was the largest single move in the dataset in either direction, a second strong week recovering a long decline, while Crude Oil Brent’s 10.65% drop led the downside as the petroleum band extended its breakdown and Silver fell almost as far. The contrast is the week in miniature: a handful of scattered, largely counter-trend gains against a heavy, persistent decline clustered in energy and the metals.

Portfolio View

The week was harder on continuation books than the prior one, and it cost more. The clearest directional contributor was again Energy: short exposure in the petroleum band was rewarded as crude extended its breakdown into a third week, and short crypto gained as Bitcoin slipped 4.91%. Against those, the equity indices pulled back from records, so long positioning that had ridden the uptrend gave back ground, and the precious metals deepened their decline, trimming long exposure that had carried the year’s advance, Silver and Palladium the heaviest. The sharp bounces in Cocoa and Rough Rice ran counter to the declines those contracts had been tracing, so any short held against them was hit, though Cocoa’s two-week surge is now large enough that a trend system may be turning long into it. The firmer dollar helped books positioned with the USD recovery. The net was a give-back of roughly 0.50 of a point on the year, deeper than the prior week, as the losses on the long equity and metals side outweighed the gains from the established energy and crypto shorts. The week favoured books holding short trends over those still positioned long for the equity advance.

Final Reflections

The defining feature of the week was a turn lower that lifted trend strength even as it cost trend followers. The heaviest, most persistent moves sat on the downside, the petroleum complex and the metals carrying lower and the long equity uptrend pausing from records, while the largest gains, Cocoa and Rough Rice, came as counter-trend bounces. The TTU Barometer firmed to 55%, reaching the favourable boundary after three weeks in Neutral, yet the SG Trend Index gave back roughly 0.50 of a point to +9.03% year to date and contract-level breadth stayed negative at 19 of 49 contracts higher against 30 lower, none unchanged. The market offered more trend strength than it did trend-follower reward this week: the new strength was real, but much of it pointed in directions a long-biased book was not yet carrying.

1. The barometer firmed even as most markets fell, a reminder that it measures the strength and persistence of trends, not the number of markets closing higher.

The five-week sequence (32, 43, 43, 45, 55) firmed to 55% this week, up 10 points and lifting from the Neutral band it had held for three weeks up to the favourable boundary, the 55% line where Neutral gives way to a favourable environment. It rose even as breadth stayed negative, just 19 of 49 contracts higher against 30 lower. The two measure different things: the barometer counts how strongly and persistently markets are trending, in either direction, not how many close higher, so a week with more decliners but sharper, more durable moves, Energy extending lower, the precious metals deepening their decline, the equity indices rolling over from records and Bitcoin pressing on, can lift the share of markets in medium-to-strong trends. The 10-day rate of change reads Rising Weakly, a modestly firmer momentum reading running with the higher weekly level, so the near-term tilt points mildly higher, with the level at 55% now sitting right at the favourable boundary.

2. The week’s largest gains were counter-trend, while its largest losses ran with developing or established trends, a distinction that shapes what is likely to persist.

Cocoa and Rough Rice produced the two biggest gains on the board, but both came against multi-month declines, counter-trend bounces rather than settled uptrends, though Cocoa’s second strong week is starting to look like more than a one-week pop. The crude complex and Silver produced the largest losses, and those moves ran with trends already in place or building: Energy has carried lower for three weeks, and the precious metals decline is deepening from the highs into something closer to a sustained move. For a trend follower the distinction is the point: a counter-trend bounce is the move most likely to fade, while an established or developing downtrend is the one more likely to continue. The clearest, most persistent trends this week sat on the downside, and that risk-off tilt, more than the breadth count, is what the week leaves behind.

One question frames the week ahead: Does the risk-off turn harden into a sustained trend as the equity indices roll over and the petroleum complex and metals extend lower, or does the long equity uptrend reassert itself and leave this week as a brief pause within it?

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document is directly solely to Accredited Investors, Qualified Eligible Participants, Qualified Clients and Qualified Purchasers. No investment decision should be made until prospective investors have read the detailed information in the fund offering documents of any manager mentioned in this document. This document is furnished on a confidential basis only for the use of the recipient and only for discussion purposes and is subject to amendment This document is neither advice nor a recommendation to enter into any transaction. This document is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any security or other financial instrument. This presentation is based on information obtained from sources that TopTradersUnplugged (“TTU”) (“considers to be reliable however, TTU makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information. TTU has not independently verified third party manager or benchmark information, does not represent it as accurate, true or complete, makes no warranty, express or implied regarding it and shall not be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses relating to its adequacy, accuracy, truth, completeness or use.

All projections, valuations, and statistical analyses are provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein. Such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may use one among many alternative methodologies that produce different results accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses should not be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate prediction of future events. There is no guarantee that any targeted performance will be achieved Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone

TTU is not and does not purport to be an advisor as to legal, taxation, accounting, financial or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. The recipient should independently evaluate and judge the matters referred to herein. TTU does not provide advice or recommendations regarding an investor’s decision to allocate to funds or accounts managed by any manager (“or to maintain or sell investments in funds or accounts managed by any manager, and no fiduciary relationship under ERISA is created by the investor investing in funds or accounts managed by any manager, or through any communication between TTU and the investor

In reviewing this document, it should be understood that the past performance results of any asset class, or any investment or trading program set forth herein, are not necessarily indicative of any future results that may be achieved in connection with any transaction. Any persons subscribing for an investment must be able to bear the risks involved and must meet the suitability requirements relating to such investment. Some or all alternative investment programs discussed herein may not be suitable for certain investors This document is directed only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such investment professionals. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely upon this document.

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

This document contains simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations AND SHOULD BE VIEWED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT ACCOUNT.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM OR OTHER ASSET.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those being shown.

“A Split Tape: Soft Commodities and Equities Lead, the Petroleum Complex Falls for a Second Week, and the Barometer Firms to 45% Within Neutral as the SG Trend Index Holds Near Flat”

This Week in Trend – 19 June 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 19 June 2026.

The week split by sector rather than lining up behind a single driver. Soft Commodities led the board, averaging +3.25% as Cocoa surged 11.56% and Coffee 7.01%, while the equity indices firmed again, the Nikkei 225 up 7.02% and the sector averaging +2.15% with all seven contracts higher. Against that, the petroleum complex fell further and the metals eased across the board, leaving Energy the weakest sector at -3.65% and the VIX down 8.47% as the equity recovery held. Crypto gave back the prior week’s bounce, Bitcoin slipping 0.27%, and contract-level breadth eased to 19 of 49 contracts higher, 28 lower and 2 unchanged, down from 26 higher the week before.

Inside the complex the moves ran in both directions. Soft Commodities and the equity indices carried the upside, the softs lifted by counter-trend bounces in Cocoa and Coffee and the indices extending an uptrend that has the US benchmarks and the Nikkei 225 near record territory. Energy was the heaviest sector again, Crude Oil WTI down 8.99% and Crude Oil Brent 7.74% as the petroleum band extended its breakdown, with only Natural Gas firmer at +2.50%. Metals eased across the board, Silver off 4.51% and the precious complex pulling back within a still-elevated uptrend, while Grains stayed split, Wheat up 3.15% against sharp declines in Soybean Oil and Canola. The dollar firmed, the USD index up 1.13% while the non-dollar majors softened together, Bonds finished near flat with the long end firmer than the front, and Meats rose on the strength of the cattle as Lean Hogs fell.

Trend Indicators:  Barometer Firms to 45% Within Neutral, SG Trend Index Holds Near Flat

TTU Trend Barometer: 45%, up from 43% last week, with the overall trend strength classification holding at Neutral for a third consecutive week. The 10-day rate of change reads Falling Weakly, easing from last week’s Rising Moderately pace even as the weekly level ticked higher. The five-week sequence now reads 45, 32, 43, 43, 45: the reading has firmed 2 points and returned to the 45 level it held five weeks ago, holding toward the middle of the Neutral band.

The 2-point firming came on a split tape rather than a broad trend. Soft Commodities led the upside as Cocoa and Coffee extended higher, the equity indices firmed behind the Nikkei 225, and the petroleum complex extended its decline, while crypto gave back last week’s bounce and the metals softened. The barometer measures whether markets are trending, not whether the trends match the ones a portfolio already holds, so a modest rise in the level reflects a small net increase in the share of markets generating medium-to-strong trends rather than any single break. Some trends persisted and firmed, Energy extending its decline and Soft Commodities breaking higher, while others faded as the equity bounce matured and crypto rolled over, and on balance the count of strongly trending markets edged up. The Falling Weakly rate of change cuts the other way, the 10-day momentum easing even as the weekly level rose, so the near-term read is mixed rather than one-way, though at 45% the level sits comfortably inside Neutral rather than pressing toward either boundary.

SG Trend Index: -0.80% month to date for June and +9.53% year to date as of 19 June, compared with -0.71% MTD and +9.63% YTD at last week’s close. The index gave back roughly 0.10 of a percentage point on the year, a far smaller move than the 2.27 points it shed the week before, and the June month-to-date figure deepened modestly. The shallow give-back fits a quieter week: the petroleum complex fell further and Soft Commodities broke higher, persistent moves that would have helped a continuation book, while crypto reversed last week’s bounce and parts of the metals and currency complexes chopped, trimming the net. This week the barometer firmed while the index slipped, the two moving apart again: the share of markets in medium-to-strong trends edged up even as trend-follower performance edged down. The scale of both moves is small, so the divergence is mild rather than a clear signal, but rising trend strength sitting alongside a softer index is the read to note.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Index (+2.15% | prev +1.87%)

The advance continued, with all seven contracts higher. The Nikkei 225 led at +7.02%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.31%, the Euro Stoxx 50 1.86%, the DAX 1.53%, the Russell 2000 0.97%, the S&P 500 0.78% and the DJIA 0.55%. The weekly charts show the multi-month uptrend still intact, the US indices and the Nikkei 225 sitting at or near record territory while the European indices hold their advance. This week’s gains ran with that trend rather than against it, a continuation of the recovery that began the week before rather than a fresh turn. Participation was complete, every index rising, with the Nikkei 225 the clear leader and the DJIA the laggard.

Energy (-3.65% | prev -3.75%)

The petroleum complex extended its decline, leaving Energy the weakest sector on the board for a second week. Crude Oil WTI dropped 8.99% and Crude Oil Brent 7.74%, with Heating Oil down 6.17% and Gasoline RBOB 1.50%, while Ethanol finished flat and Natural Gas rose 2.50% against the move. The weekly charts show crude pressing toward the lower part of its range for the move rather than stabilising. The decline reads as a continuation lower, a move that has now run for two weeks and that a short position would have carried, with Natural Gas the one contract pulling the other way as it firmed off its lows.

Metals (-2.48% | prev -0.91%)

The complex eased across the board, all five contracts lower. Silver led the decline at -4.51%, with Platinum down 2.57%, Palladium 2.09%, Copper 1.68% and Gold 1.55%, the base and precious sides moving lower together rather than splitting. The weekly charts keep the broader picture intact: the precious metals remain well up on the year and close to their winter and spring highs, so the week reads as a pullback within an established uptrend rather than a turn.

Soft Commodities (+3.25% | prev +0.92%)

The sector led the board, lifted by sharp moves in Cocoa and Coffee. Cocoa surged 11.56% and Coffee 7.01%, with Cotton up 4.33% and Lumber 2.18%, while Sugar fell 1.19% and Orange Juice 4.38%. Four of six contracts rose, and the two largest moves sat on the upside. The weekly charts frame the leaders as counter-trend bounces rather than fresh uptrends: both Cocoa and Coffee had been working lower from their late-2025 highs for months, and this week’s jumps recover part of that decline rather than turning it. Orange Juice and Sugar ran the other way, pressing toward new lows for their respective moves, so the split that has run through this sector for weeks held, with the upside carrying the larger weight this time.

Grains (-0.88% | prev -1.01%)

The sector stayed split, the cereal grains firmer and the oilseeds sharply lower. Wheat led the gainers at +3.15%, with Corn up 1.19% and Soybeans 0.76%, while Rough Rice finished flat; on the other side Soybean Oil fell 6.31%, Canola 4.12%, Oats 1.49% and Soybean Meal 0.20%. The weekly charts show the divide clearly: Soybean Oil and Canola broke down from the uptrends they had been carrying, the steepest moves in the sector, while Wheat firmed off the lower end of its range after a long decline. The sector average of -0.88% sits on top of that two-way split rather than a single direction, three contracts higher, four lower and Rough Rice flat, the oilseeds doing the heavier work on the downside.

Meats (+0.63% | prev -0.19%)

The sector firmed on the strength of the cattle. Feeder Cattle rose 1.93% and Live Cattle 1.63%, while Lean Hogs fell 1.66%, the split that has run through this sector holding with the cattle on the firmer side. The weekly charts keep both cattle contracts in the uptrends they have traced for months, Feeder Cattle near the top of its range, while Lean Hogs continued the decline that has pulled the contract well off its earlier highs. The sector average of +0.63% reflects the cattle outweighing the drag from hogs, a modest gain that sits with the established trends in each rather than against them.

Bonds (-0.07% | prev +0.35%)

The complex finished near flat, the long end firmer than the front. The 30 Year Bond rose 0.36%, while the 10 Year Note eased 0.17%, the 2 Year Note 0.22% and the 5 Year Note 0.24%, leaving the sector average at -0.07%. That tilt reverses a week earlier when the whole curve firmed together. The weekly charts show prices easing modestly from the prior week within the range the contracts have held, the small offsetting moves leaving no single direction across the curve.

Currencies (-0.86% | prev +0.11%)

The dollar firmed while the non-dollar majors softened broadly. The USD index rose 1.13%, the only gainer in the basket, while NZD led the decliners at -1.65%, with CAD down 1.41%, CHF 1.40%, GBP 1.38%, EUR 0.93%, JPY 0.73% and AUD 0.53%, leaving the sector average at -0.86%. The weekly charts show the USD index firming after the softer stretch that ran through the spring, a recovery rather than a decisive new trend, with the majors giving back ground evenly across the basket rather than through one cross.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX fell 8.47% as the equity recovery held and implied volatility eased back, the index drifting lower off the elevated readings of recent weeks while equities pressed higher. Bitcoin slipped 0.27%, giving back the small bounce of the prior week and holding near the lower part of the range it has traced since the winter. The weekly chart keeps Bitcoin inside the decline that has run for months, the contract tracking its own path rather than the equity tape: where the indices sit near record territory, Bitcoin remains well below its late-2025 high. The near-flat weekly move reads as consolidation within that downtrend rather than a turn, the contract neither extending the prior week’s bounce nor breaking to a fresh low.

Top Movers

The two lists run in opposite directions by sector. The upside is concentrated in Soft Commodities, with Cocoa, Coffee and Cotton taking three of the five largest gains, joined by the Nikkei 225 from the equity advance and Wheat from the firmer cereal grains. The downside is concentrated in Energy, Crude Oil WTI, Crude Oil Brent and Heating Oil taking three of the five places, joined by the VIX as volatility eased and Soybean Oil from the break in the oilseeds. Cocoa’s 11.56% gain was the largest single move in the dataset in either direction, a sharp bounce off a multi-month decline, while Crude Oil WTI’s 8.99% drop led the downside as the petroleum band extended its breakdown. The split is the week in miniature: the strongest moves clustered in two sectors pulling against each other, Soft Commodities higher and the petroleum complex lower, with the broader tape mixed in between.

Portfolio View

The week was kinder to continuation books than the prior one, though it still cost a little. The clearest directional contributor was again Energy: short exposure in the petroleum band was rewarded as crude extended its breakdown, while long positioning in the equity indices gained as the uptrend pressed on toward record territory. Against those, the sharp bounces in Cocoa and Coffee ran counter to the declines those contracts had been tracing, so any short held in the soft commodities was hit, and the pullback in the precious metals trimmed long positioning that had ridden the year’s advance. Short crypto sat roughly flat as Bitcoin barely moved, and the firmer dollar helped or hurt depending on which side of the recent range a system was positioned. The net was a shallow give-back, the SG Trend Index off about 0.10 of a point on the year, far less than the prior week, as the persistent moves in Energy and the equity indices largely offset the counter-trend jumps in the softs and the metals pullback. The week favoured books that held their established trends rather than those chasing the largest single moves.

Final Reflections

The defining feature of the week was not direction but concentration. The strongest trends sat at opposite ends of the board, Soft Commodities surging on Cocoa and Coffee while Energy carried lower, with much of the tape in between mixed and quiet. The TTU Barometer firmed to 45%, Neutral for a third consecutive week, the SG Trend Index gave back roughly 0.10 of a point to +9.53% year to date, and contract-level breadth eased to 19 of 49 contracts higher against 28 lower, with two unchanged. The market still offered opportunity, but increasingly through sector selection rather than broad participation: the strength sat in a few trends at the extremes rather than across the board.

1. The barometer firmed even as fewer markets advanced, a reminder that it measures the strength and persistence of trends, not the number of markets closing higher.

The five-week sequence (45, 32, 43, 43, 45) firmed to 45% this week, up 2 points and holding inside the Neutral band for a third consecutive week. It rose even as contract breadth narrowed, just 19 of 49 contracts higher against 26 a week earlier. The two measure different things: the barometer counts how strongly and persistently markets are trending, not how many close higher, so a week with fewer advancers but sharper, more durable moves, Energy extending lower and Soft Commodities breaking higher, can lift the share of markets in medium-to-strong trends. The 10-day rate of change reads Falling Weakly, a softer momentum reading sitting just under the firmer weekly level, so the near-term tilt is mixed rather than one-way, with the level at 45% holding toward the middle of Neutral.

2. The week’s largest gains were counter-trend, while its largest loss ran with the trend, a distinction that shapes what is likely to persist.

Cocoa and Coffee produced the two biggest gains on the board, but both came against multi-month declines, counter-trend bounces rather than fresh uptrends. Energy produced the largest loss, and that move ran with a downtrend already in place. For a trend follower the distinction is the point: a counter-trend bounce is the move most likely to fade, while an established trend that extends is the one more likely to continue. The strongest up moves this week were therefore the least dependable, and the clearest read sat on the downside, where Energy has become the dominant trend on the board. That asymmetry, more than the breadth count, is what the week leaves behind.

For trend followers, the week was not defined by whether markets rose or fell. It was defined by whether the moves were persistent enough to be captured. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

One question frames the week ahead: Does the breakdown in Energy harden into a sustained trend, or do the sharp bounces in Cocoa and Coffee and the firmer dollar signal a rotation that scatters the next set of trends across new sectors?

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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