Can we just be real for a minute?
2018 was a roller coaster of a year…and one of those years where you could easily feel a bit sick to your stomach when you looked at the performance of your investments.
(at least it was for most trend followers)…but lately even hardcore equity bulls have felt the pain, just like bond investors did until a couple of months ago. Indeed 2018 will be remembered by many investors for its lows, rather than its highs.Read Full Post
Since 1999, the 3 best months of performance for managed futures, represented by the SG Trend Index, have been November, December and January… but as November did not live up to this reputation, let’s see if December and January can make up for this.Read Full Post
Last months post was headed “Calm before the Storm?”…and little did I know, that only a few days in to October, the storm would be blowing across many markets, but in particular Equities and Energies.
With the BOJ accelerating their extreme monetary policies and the FED putting on the breaks…this storm could get bigger…Read Full Post
As the FED delivered its anticipated rate hike during the last week of the month (the eighths since December 2015), the month of September was in many respect a relatively quiet month for most markets.
As “usual” the US stock markets made a new all-time high, and as “usual” European markets struggled to keep up with this trend.Read Full Post
…it may be worth remembering that in 2009 when Central Banks were trying to save the financial system…Emerging Markets were part of the solution…however today, I fear that they are part of the problem.Read Full Post
US indices are within striking distance of new highs and Apple moved within a whisker ($65bn to be precise) of being valued at $1,000,000,000,000.
So all is good you would think…right?
Well not if you were long Facebook and GAM Holding stocks, as both firms saw their shares tumble by 20%…in one day!
Does this “contradiction” reveal a bigger problem in financial markets?Read Full Post
Like in any major negotiation, there will be good days and bad days…and over here in Europe…the BREXIT negotiations seem like a perfect example of this.
When I look at the performance of CTA’s during the month of June, there were a lot of these good days and not so good days…but in the end the Bulls prevailed.Read Full Post
Mamma Mia…with record temperatures being recorded in many places in Europe during May…the Italian Bond market set its own records.
What started out as a bit of a rumble in emerging markets…has now moved much closer to the heart of Europe.Read Full Post
Q2 kicked off with an early sign of what many investors are fearing. A sell-off in both bonds and stocks at the same time. This of course is nothing new, we saw it during the financial crisis…but the truth is that it has not happened very often in the past 30+ years, mainly because the interest rate cycle has been going down.Read Full Post
As we wait for Spring to arrive in the northern hemisphere, the Bull market in equities cooled off during March, with many western markets dipping below the lows during the February “momentum crash”.
Trend followers has taken a lot of stick from uninformed investors who believe that this type of trading strategy would be able to provide a hedge for them during the 9 days of turbulence in late January and early February….find out how they responded in March…Read Full Post