Q2 kicked off with an early sign of what many investors are fearing. A sell-off in both bonds and stocks at the same time. This of course is nothing new, we saw it during the financial crisis…but the truth is that it has not happened very often in the past 30+ years, mainly because the interest rate cycle has been going down.Read Full Post
As we wait for Spring to arrive in the northern hemisphere, the Bull market in equities cooled off during March, with many western markets dipping below the lows during the February “momentum crash”.
Trend followers has taken a lot of stick from uninformed investors who believe that this type of trading strategy would be able to provide a hedge for them during the 9 days of turbulence in late January and early February….find out how they responded in March…Read Full Post
February was the month where many market trends caught the flu and inflicted pain on many investors.
Personally, I caught this nasty bug as well…and right in the middle of the Olympic Games in PyeongChang. But that was in someways lucky, as I had a free pass to watch all the television I wanted…including the Olympic Games.
It’s fascinating to see people at their peak, do incredible things…and make it look so easy.
Watching all this sport, made me think…
what if Trend Following was any Olympic Sport…which one would it be?
What do YOU think?
It took me a while to come up with my favorite…
It had to be a sport that would visualize the courage it takes to invest in a strategy that thrives from uncertainty and volatility.
Where you don’t try to predict but rather accept “knowing what you don’t know” and allow your positions to flow with where the markets take you.
Where the twist and turns in performance from time to time can hit you with g-force acceleration or deceleration (as experienced in February).
…but I think I found the perfect sport to do just that.
Watch this short video and you will see what I came up with 🙂Read Full Post
I was shocked, but not surprised, to see that at this week’s industry conference in Miami, 86% of Allocators asked by the organizer were looking for managers with a track record of less than 5 years!
Are you kidding me…
This means that only 14% of Allocators were focused on the managers with real long-term experience in this industry.Read Full Post
We should all stop intentionally, knowingly, consciously limiting, restricting, constraining our portfolios, so that they become so dependent on bull markets in bonds and stocks in order to deliver a decent return…Read Full Post
As the Year draws to a close, I’m reminded that the last calendar quarter is very often the best when it comes to trend following performance…
AND…so far 2017 seem to follow this tradition!Read Full Post
When I wrote about Shrek in my last blog post and the relevant question of “When Are We There?”…I had no idea that what looked to be “Far Far Away” (meaning a return of strong trends)…was just around the corner.Read Full Post
This is one of those rare prolonged periods where the men are sorted from the boys when it comes to holding on to this kind of strategy.
But what is really interesting when you take a moment and look a little bit deeper, the apparent calm expressed by the Index of Fear (VIX) only tells part of the story.
After seven straight months of low readings in the Trend Barometer, August brought a glimmer of hope and what may be in stall for the true believers of trend following.
After a painful drought in Trends, August showed some signs of recovery. Not helped by the news cycle that unfortunately had a busy month with renewed terror in Europe and the Kim/Trump standoff.
Trend following can be quite a challenging utility, return profile, for investors to hold on to. Equities tend to go up, up, up, up, up and then kick you in the teeth and then recover and then go up, up, up. Managed futures have an opposite profile where they tend to make consecutive losses than have a very strong run that makes money. That’s intrinsically quite challenging for investors to hold onto, but it’s really valuable in the portfolio.Read Full Post