It wasn’t just Halloween that scared investors in the month of October. News of economic strength increased expectations of central bank actions to raise interest rates and drove bond futures down throughout the month.Read Full Post
It turned out that the Trend Barometer managed to pick the low point to perfection, and performance of many trend followers started to stabilize in the days following this low point, which not surprisingly coincided with the FED and ECB officials being active on the airwaves.Read Full Post
The month of August kept its recent reputation of trend-less markets. In fact, August has in 4 of the last 5 years proven to be rather lack-luster when it comes to trends and trend following performance. So no surprise there!
Neither did Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen drop any surprises in her August speech and so now we wait for the September meeting with anticipation…but let’s not forget that despite the repeated intentions to raise rates, officials have skipped a hike at all five meetings this year.Read Full Post
We have seen it plenty of times in the past, where after a huge gain in trend following performance, markets reverse and a good portion of the gains are given back.
Whilst there is nothing unusual or concerning about this type of situation, it is often a reason why many investors find it hard to fully embrace trend following as part of their portfolio. They clearly prefer the steady stream of gains…until the big washout occur, that hurts so much that they ignore these unrealized losses and hope for a recovery.Read Full Post
We hear it so often…things have changed, you can’t use history as a guide for the future….
Well, the month of June would appear to have reminded many investors of WHY for one investment strategy in particular, history is a good guide and should be considered when investing for the future.
May could well turn out to be a very interesting month for people analyzing CTAs, in their quest to find a place to invest their money.
WHY do I say that?
Well because I have a feeling that managers with too much dependence on a few sectors, probably found May to be a tough month to get through.Read Full Post
Commodities took center stage in April with a big shift in “trend sentiment” compared to the beginning of the year, where most commodities fell steadily.
This may well turn out to be a big divider in performance of CTAs and trend followers, as those with very diversified portfolios and a healthy allocation of risk towards commodities, should have found April a more challenging month than financial-only or financial-heavy managers!Read Full Post
Yellen & Draghi saves the world…but spoils it for CTAs Investors in “traditional” assets and hedge funds cheered as Captain Yellen and her Co-Pilot (Draghi) once again decided that the world needed another injection of speed whilst maintaining the same course of action we have seen in recent years, namely QE and ZIRP. However, if…Read Full Post
Coco-Bonds spooked the markets…but not CTAs It is fair to say that investors had plenty of things to worry about in February and we were reminded about the days from 2008, where you were not quite sure if your bank was in trouble. This time around, we learned of a new instrument…Coco-Bonds! Clearly the banks…Read Full Post