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I was shocked by what I learned at Context Miami 2018…

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Frankly after almost 30 years in the CTA business, it takes quite a bit to shock me, when it comes to how this industry operates. Nevertheless, on my recent trip to Miami where I was attending the two big industry conferences…I have to admit, I learned something that I had not expected. and no…I’m not…

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Market Trends for January 2018

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I was shocked, but not surprised, to see that at this week’s industry conference in Miami, 86% of Allocators asked by the organizer were looking for managers with a track record of less than 5 years!

Are you kidding me…

This means that only 14% of Allocators were focused on the managers with real long-term experience in this industry.

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Market Trends for December 2017

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We should all stop intentionally, knowingly, consciously limiting, restricting, constraining our portfolios, so that they become so dependent on bull markets in bonds and stocks in order to deliver a decent return…

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Market Trends for November 2017

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As the Year draws to a close, I’m reminded that the last calendar quarter is very often the best when it comes to trend following performance…

AND…so far 2017 seem to follow this tradition!

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Market Trends for October 2017

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When I wrote about Shrek in my last blog post and the relevant question of “When Are We There?”…I had no idea that what looked to be “Far Far Away” (meaning a return of strong trends)…was just around the corner.

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Shrek & Managed Futures…Are We There Yet?

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Remember back in 2001 when the first Shrek movie came out? I bet if you are a parent…you had to watch this movie more than once. I know I did. One of my favorite scenes in the movie is the when Dunkey keeps asking “Are we there yet“! And in a funny way this scene reminds…

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Market Trends for September 2017

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This is one of those rare prolonged periods where the men are sorted from the boys when it comes to holding on to this kind of strategy.
But what is really interesting when you take a moment and look a little bit deeper, the apparent calm expressed by the Index of Fear (VIX) only tells part of the story.

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Market Trends for August 2017

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After seven straight months of low readings in the Trend Barometer, August brought a glimmer of hope and what may be in stall for the true believers of trend following.
After a painful drought in Trends, August showed some signs of recovery. Not helped by the news cycle that unfortunately had a busy month with renewed terror in Europe and the Kim/Trump standoff.

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Market Trends for July 2017

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Trend following can be quite a challenging utility, return profile, for investors to hold on to. Equities tend to go up, up, up, up, up and then kick you in the teeth and then recover and then go up, up, up. Managed futures have an opposite profile where they tend to make consecutive losses than have a very strong run that makes money. That’s intrinsically quite challenging for investors to hold onto, but it’s really valuable in the portfolio.

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Market Trends for June 2017

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As the drought in the Dakotas intensified, so did the drought in trends so far this year…leaving some trend followers close to their worst drawdowns…which typically means that…Better Times are Ahead!

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