Cracking the Code & Watch this Space…

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• Extraterrestrial life is no longer a punchline to a joke about flying saucers: It’s a distinct possibility. But recent revelations about the American government’s knowledge of UAPs is vague at best.
• Does the U.S. have proof in the form of an extraterrestrial craft? What could this mean for the global economy?
• Nelson Rangel, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Curacao-based Raven Capital B.V., anticipates the effects of such a disclosure in his investments.

In the era of disclosure, the Pentagon's revelations about extraterrestrial intelligence are intriguing but underwhelming.

On August 22, several members of the U.S. Congress, including Tim Burchett, Anna Paulina Luna and Jared Moskowitz, sent a letter to Inspector General Thomas A. Monheim of the United States Intelligence Community (IC IG). Their letter accused the Pentagon of a “cover-up” meant to obfuscate information about unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAPs), commonly known as UFOs. 

The congressional representatives requested that the Inspector General investigate claims that military officials are withholding information from Congress about UAPs following a hearing last month. The letter specifically asked which officials or facilities are involved in the investigation of these phenomena.

A few days later, Monheim responded: “As a matter of discretion, IC IG notes that it has not conducted any audit, inspection, evaluation or review of alleged UAP programs within the responsibility and authority of the DNI [Director of National Intelligence] that would enable this office to provide a fulsome response to your questions,” he wrote. 

Burchett, Paulina Luna, Moskowitz and four other House representatives led a bipartisan hearing about UAPs in July, which found only that … well, we need more information from the government. (Paulina Luna has said that senior military officials “stonewalled” the group’s questions.)

“This is just wild stuff to me,” says David Dorr, host of our newest series on Top Traders Unplugged, Galactic Macro. “It’s why I’m so fascinated with the topic — and I [definitely] think it’s relevant to macro.”

Our guest Nelson Rangel, CIO at Curacao-based Raven Capital B.V. is a true macro thinker, and an investment manager with a global — and some might say universal — perspective. Born in Venezuela, he began trading commodities and equities out of his dorm room in college. Twenty-five years later, he manages a multimillion-dollar portfolio based on deep analysis of global markets across a wide range of asset classes.

On a Galactic Macro installment of Top Traders Unplugged, Nelson joined David to talk about economic cycles; the economies of the BRICS nations as well as those in Latin America and China; the state of the U.S. dollar; and much more. Read on for a recap of his fascinating conversation with David about UAPs and his framework for understanding the possible impact of extraterrestrial intelligence on our world.

Senators seek ‘non-human intelligence’ 

It seems that the possibility of life beyond Earth animates everyone from progressives to MAGA Republicans. The recent House of Representatives hearing was must-see TV for UFO enthusiasts, but arguably the “cooling saucer” of Congress made a bolder move. 

In a 64-page amendment to the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, a bipartisan group of senators proposed the UAP Disclosure Act of 2023. If passed, the act — which mentions non-human intelligence 22 times — would mandate transparency about UAPs among government agencies throughout their history. As Defensescoop notes, “For the Department of Defense, such records could date back to the days when its enterprise was known as the Department of War.”

“This is something straight out of a sci-fi movie,” says David, who notes that Nelson was the first colleague he had in the investing space who he talked to about UAPs and their implications for the world of finance. He asks Nelson how he thinks these developments will play out.

As a fellow Gen Xer, “we grew up with Star Wars,” Nelson replies. “So we are obviously more open … than other generations to consider these things.” 

But he notes that the “level of disclosure, and the speed with which disclosure is taking place at the high levels of government,” led to his own evolution on the issue. While he was once a casual fan of “ancient aliens” TV shows and the like, now he is “somebody who actually needs to start thinking and considering these things to fulfill his fiduciary responsibility with his investors.”

Nelson’s three-pointed thesis

Nelson is currently working on a UAP-focused thesis and, “as evidence comes in, and further disclosure or contact takes place, I will be looking to build upon that thesis,” he says.

As of right now, it’s a framework with three legs. 

The first one is deflation. “It doesn't matter if they are coming from another galaxy, another dimension or from inside our planet,” Nelson says. “It is clear that [extraterrestrials will likely be] a more technologically advanced race. So any ‘peaceful’ — and I highlight the word peaceful, put it in the quotes and draw a big circle around it in red — contact implies a transfer of technology.”

He posits that any new technologies we could learn from extraterrestrials would be “the most deflationary force in the universe.” 

“Think about the quantum leaps we could, or we would, make in energy production, space mining, food production and medicine,” he adds. “We could see decades of deflation, or at least disinflation.”

The second point of his thesis is “perhaps less friendly,” he says. 

“In my country, we have a saying: It’s not the same thing to call the devil than to see him walk in the door. What that means [in this case] is that we don’t know how a relationship between an alien race and humans will evolve.” 

Armed and outrageous

To which “devil” does Nelson refer? In a word: guns. Historically, as humans on this planet, our track record for maintaining peace is fairly dismal. 

“There has never been contact between a horrible and a less-horrible civilization on planet Earth without eventually some shots being fired,” Nelson says. “If you think about it, a city is like a microcosm of a state; a state is a microcosm of a country. A country is a microcosm of a planet. So I think it follows that our planet must be a microcosm of the universe.”

Because we have good people and bad people here on Earth, “the notion that everybody out there in the universe is good just seems naive to me,” he adds. “So I think upon further disclosure or actual contact, people will arm themselves to protect their families. And that has obvious implications for gun manufacturers.” 

But before you call your broker, consider Nelson’s third point: “Legal chaos for defense contractors.”

He cites one of the key takeaways from a landmark press conference at the National Press Club in June: Dr. Steven Greer, the world’s foremost expert on UAPs, told the audience that “a legal team has been assembled by victims’ families … to help prosecute RICO crimes related to UFO cover[ups],” Nelson recalls. 

The crimes Greer talked about in that presentation “make Al Capone look like Mickey Mouse,” Nelson says. 

RICO, risk and reward

Indeed, Al Capone just might blush at the list of wrongdoings Greer alleges. 

“We're talking about things like treason against the United States, mass murder, torture, bank fraud, money laundering, kidnapping, you name it,” Nelson continues. “The list is too long right now for me to remember. … But depending on who did what, I can see at least two major defense contractors either going bankrupt, or getting nationalized under the weight of significant litigation.” 

The upshot for investors? Those who hold stock in these kinds of companies “are taking on massive litigation risk after 80 years of crimes,” he says.

Nelson reiterates that his thesis is a work in progress, and some of it might be hard to prove or even to hear. But if he’s right, the fallout won’t just affect Lockheed Martin, Boeing and RTX stockholders. 

Curious to learn more? Look to the skies … and then watch this space.

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This is based on an episode of Top Traders Unplugged, a bi-weekly podcast with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders and thought leaders in the world. Sign up to our Newsletter or Subscribe on your preferred podcast platform so that you don’t miss out on future episodes.