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Today, we are joined by Cameron Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, who has a really unique background. We address how she allocate and construct her portfolios in a highly unstable and inflationary environment and why she prefesr to play on the smaller side of funds. We also discuss the importance of valuations and how it can help forecast long term returns and how she analyzes earnings and liquidity to understand and navigate an uncertain macro environment, the outlook for inflation and how the Fed might act to combat the economic instability as well as their process of recruiting external managers. Lastly, we discuss how narratives impact the markets and the importance of knowing the source of your returns, how to approach long-term investment to avoid buying at the top and selling at the bottom, as well as some sound advice for aspiring CIOs and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Cameron on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:10 – Introduction to Cameron and her work at NewEdge Wealth
08:01 – Navigating in a tough environment
14:31 – Their approach to asset allocation
21:31 – The historical perspective
29:56 – Getting comfort in an uncertain macro environment
41:20 – Is high inflation here to stay?
48:33 – What it will take for the Fed to call victory?
53:18 – Bottom-Up or Top-Down?
01:00:39 – Dealing with individual investors
01:06:36 – Advice for aspiring CIOs
01:12:53 – Key takeaways from Niels

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Today, we are joined by Jason Morrow, Deputy CIO at Utah Retirement Systems, for a conversation on how portfolio management is carried out at a large pension fund. We discuss how Morrow approaches the objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio and the realized volatility over time, how they manage the challenges of an inflationary environment and balance their portfolio to mitigate risk, how they find the right mix of public and private equities and their approach to absolute return strategies. We also address the process of assembling a team of managers and evaluating quant strategies, how to mitigate behavioural biases when selecting manager, cultivating talent as a CIO and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Jason on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:35 – Introduction to Jason Morrow
08:02 – Investment objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio
13:21 – How does inflation affect URS's portfolio?
20:27 – Building and balancing the portfolio
24:29 – Public vs. private equities
31:22 – Using multiple asset allocating strategies
38:06 – Their approach to selecting managers
41:15 – Evaluating quant strategies
45:51 – Behavioural biases in manager selection
50:27 – Return expectations setting for alts
55:42 – Mastering the role as a CIO
01:01:13 – Book recommendations and key advice for listeners
01:05:53 – Key takeaways from Niels

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Bilal Hafeez, Founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, joins us today to discuss the current state of the markets and how we are possibly heading into a new regime and why FED Funds may hit 8%. We address the economic outlook of the near future and how the FED will deal with the challenges of inflation and increasing interest rates, how technology has taken over parts of the labour force and how Covid-19 has changed the way people and companies work, how demographics impacts inflation and the growth problems that China currently experiences. We also discuss how the future for asset allocation looks and how the sanctions against Russia impacts the economy around the world. Lastly, Bilal explains his process and approach to making research and recommends books that have been influential to him.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Bilal on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:03 – Introduction to Bilal Hafeez
07:51 – How does the community respond to the current environment?
10:43 – FED Funds & the economic outlook of the next 6-12 months
23:17 – An inflation story
29:39 – Demographics – Is it inflationary or dis-inflationary?
35:20 – What is next for asset allocation
44:03 – Should we worry about the sanctions against Russia?
51:58 – Lessons learned from previous crises
55:16 – Bilal’s research process and approach
01:02:36 – Book recommendations
01:06:01 – Key takeaways from Niels

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In this episode, we discuss:

  • How to build strong multi-asset portfolios for your clients
  • How using CTAs and Trend Followers can help mitigate risk
  • How manager selection is like a dating process
  • How to make good decisions as a team
  • How to be well prepared for the next crises

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Hugo on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:18 – Introduction to Hugo’s work and investing strategy
18:32 – From correlation focused to trading oriented strategies
24:50 – Being allocated to trend followers
28:35 – Challenges of staying invested
30:23 – Being a chef and a critic
39:41 – Making decisions and having a plan
53:09 – People who have inspired Hugo
59:31 – Thanks for listening

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In this episode, we discuss:

  • How asset allocation is handled by a successful public pension fund like Fairfax County Retirement System
  • How they manage risk and create balance in their portfolios
  • How instability in the markets has shaped their strategy
  • How they look at return expectations
  • The (brave) move into digital assets
  • Manager selection
  • Skills and challenges of being a CIO

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katherine on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

0:00 – Intro
03:05 – Overview of Fairfax County’s asset allocation strategy
14:27 – How has the current market affected their strategy?
19:35 – The growth of risk mitigation strategies
28:42 – Expectations of returns
37:02 – What scenario keeps Molnar and Spellar awake at night?
39:38 – Digital assets
51:05 – Manager selection
58:00 – Skills and challenges of being a CIO
01:04:30 – Advice on becoming a better trader
01:08:08 – Thanks for listening

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In this episode, we discuss:

  • The philosophy of David Swensen and the Yale Model
  • How the role of hedge funds has changed over the years
  • The bet Seides made with Warren Buffett
  • Asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome
  • What Seides has learned from doing his podcast
  • The importance of leadership and time management
  • The difficulty of making a good decision in the heat of the moment
  • The future of crypto currencies and digital assets

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Ted on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:23 – Ted’s background
07:35 – How Seides deviates from Swensen in his approach
10:36 – The Yale Model and the end of 60/40
15:55 – Is it more difficult to be a hedgefond allocator now?
23:03 – Asset allocation vs. manager selection
31:35 – What has Seides learned from doing his podcast?
39:58 – Learning by doing vs. learning from courses etc.
41:22 – What has Seides learned from interviewing CIOs and Allocators?
43:35 – What constitutes good and bad governance?
49:14 – Ted’s perspective on crypto currencies and digital assets
51:55 – Macro trends in the coming years
53:39 – Reflection on the success of Ted’s podcast
57:47 – How Ted’s role has evolved
01:01:21 – Thanks for listening

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In this episode, we discuss:

  • How assets are managed in the private space vs. institutional space
  • Biases in asset allocation and how to overcome them.
  • Using Alpha, Beta and other investment strategies
  • Due diligence and things to avoid in the process
  • The risks of manager selection and what it takes to be a good manager.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Chris Schelling on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:23 – About Chris’s background and role at Venturi
12:45 – Disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard
17:54 – How the industry has evolved over the years
21:56 – Is private equity less risky?
23:43 – Is liquidity being more or less valued than it should be?
27:39 – Alpha, Beta and mapping strategies into categories
32:37 – Dispersion and persistence of returns
36:30 – Setting objectives and making decisions
40:14 – Overcoming biases
44:20 – Dealing with randomness
47:33 – Important skills as a manager
54:29 – Timeframe for analysing a manager’s performance
57:46 – Things to avoid in the due diligence process
01:00:14 – Risks within manager selection
01:03:00 – How much experience do you need?
01:05:09 – Advice for working with asset allocation and manager selection
01:06:12 – Book recommendations

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In this episode, we discuss:

  • What the 60/40 portfolio will look like in the next decade
  • The surprise of markets ability to trend
  • The value of Risk Mitigation, but how it’s not enough
  • Insights to the inflationary period in the UK under Nigel Lawson
  • Why this time feels different
  • Lessons from the 1987 Crash

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Alan Higgins on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:05 – Alan’s background and current role
04:44 – Risk premium and fixed income
24:33 – Setbacks and drawdowns
26:45 – Inflation
35:06 – Interest rates, bonds and dividends
43:22 – Asset allocation and portfolio construction
46:18 – Alan’s role at Eighteen48 Partners
48:33 – David Swensen and the Yale Approach
50:15 – Risks of private equity strategies
52:16 – Good vs. bad investment processes
55:00 – Managing investment teams
56:52 – Book recommendations
01:01:06 – Summary by Niels

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In this episode, we discuss:

  • The outlook for inflation
  • Achieving high performance consistently
  • How to re-allocate a portfolio accordingly
  • Mean variance optimisation
  • Whether this time is different
  • Selecting the right manager
  • Simplifying complexity for better understanding

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:30 – Elizabeth’s background and history in the investment world
04:55 – Elizabeth’s perspective on today’s markets
06:52 – Managing a public fund versus a private fund
08:14 – Performing above expectations
09:38 – The current outlook for inflation
11:31 – How to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation
13:57 – Fixed income versus real assets
14:51 – Categorising asset classes effectively
19:56 – The limits of mean variance optimisation
21:59 – Using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making
24:09 – Whether this time is different
25:25 – Difficulties in the manager selection process
28:35 – Choosing between macro and systematic investors
30:08 – The pitfalls of investing with macro traders
32:40 – Investing in a manager who includes crypto in their portfolio
34:34 – Allocating between systematic and discretionary managers
36:45 – How to screen for a good money manager
40:44 – How to respond when a manager is underperforming
43:48 – Process over outcome
47:04 – Working with consultants
52:27 – Lessons from a leadership coach
57:00 – Simplifying complex ideas for better communication 
01:00:28 – Advice for aspiring allocators

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In this episode, we discuss:

  • Ever-changing market correlations
  • Strategic asset allocation
  • Responding to interest rate changes
  • Achieving utility maximisation
  • Mean variance analysis
  • Portfolio diversification
  • Treasury bonds
  • High performance teams
  • Simplifying complexity

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Sebastien on LinkedIn or at T. Rowe Price & get his book Beyond Diversification.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:52 – Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry
07:45 – How Sebastien’s book came about
09:39 – Current view on the markets
13:37 – How to position portfolios for the year ahead and beyond
18:41 – The current outlook for equities and the sectors within
19:43 – Investing in a rising interest rate environment
24:06 – Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets
27:04 – Approaches to strategic asset allocation
33:24 – Defining and achieving utility maximisation
37:48 – The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis
41:49 – Using scenario analysis
47:41 – Distributions during different market regimes
55:12 – How to properly diversify a portfolio
58:51 – The durability of treasury bonds
01:05:18 – Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams
01:07:58 – Achieving a state of ‘flow’
01:10:58 – Simplifying complex financial topics

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In this episode, we discuss:

  • Better education around capital allocation
  • Allocating capital throughout various market cycles
  • How to define an ‘alternative investment’
  • How actively we should manage a portfolio
  • Traditional versus alternative investments
  • The difficulties in the manager selection process
  • Being a great behavioural investor as an allocator
  • Difficult conversations with clients
  • Advice for aspiring capital allocators

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Phil on Twitter or at Savant Wealth Management & get his book The Allocators Edge.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:44 – How 2022 has been for allocators so far
03:13 – Phil Huber’s journey into investing
05:46 – Why Phil wrote a book on capital allocation
09:00 – The typical clients, and types of portfolios that Phil deals with
12:07 – The 60 / 40 portfolio and how it became so popular
18:49 – Adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles
22:37 – Defining ‘alternative investments’
30:27 – Choosing which strategies to invest in, and when to choose these strategies
37:45 – The extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed
39:36 – Traditional versus alternative investments
40:04 – The challenges of manager selection
49:51 – Cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator
53:09 – The importance of courage
54:55 – Managing difficult conversations with clients
01:01:68 – Advice for aspiring asset allocators

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