TTU Trend Barometer
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Trend Following: Is it for you?
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Global Macro

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Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions
00:44 – Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion
01:40 – Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives
02:24 – Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders
04:00 – Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it
07:02 – The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes
08:17 – Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump’s second term
10:06 – Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump 2.0
14:27 – The economic agenda redefining tariffs, reshoring and political constituencies
17:17 – Manufacturing limits, automation and long term structural realities
21:11 – Tariffs, tax politics and the competing factions within the Republican Party
21:50 – Deregulation, AI, Silicon Valley realignment and state influence
26:34 – The affordability crisis and political expectations around prices
31:23 – Prospects for Democrats in 2026 and shifting electoral dynamics
59:32 – A global lens on rising nationalism, new hegemons and the future of the EU

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening and disclaimer
02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus
06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly
11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base
16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing
22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects
25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs
27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt
29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences
33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China tactics
38:01 – Belt & Road 2.0: fewer loans, more influence
42:56 – Capital controls and the ceiling on RMB internationalization
49:00 – Hong Kong’s evolving financial role
50:54 – CCP control after the plenum; succession optics
53:47 – Taiwan scenarios and risk contours
55:51 – Plateau vs. precipice: what could still break
57:54 – Career advice for macro and China analysis

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction
03:12 – The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles
08:44 – Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes
13:47 – The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets
20:47 – Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system
27:33 – Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation
34:57 – The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk
41:40 – Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”
49:10 – Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle for supply
55:48 – Oil’s forgotten value and echoes of past energy cycles
01:00:19 – Gold, miners, and the new hierarchy of precious assets
01:07:23 – Helium, the next frontier, and closing reflections on a changing world

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 – Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld
05:26 – The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
08:14 – What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?
11:13 – Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?
18:42 – How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar
27:19 – Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?
29:50 – What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?
34:20 – A possible financial repression incoming?
36:25 – The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically
39:16 – A fork in the road for the Fed
47:19 – From problem to crisis
51:32 – Is Obstfeld optimistic about AI?
53:06 – The end of the neoliberal era – what comes next?
58:00 – Advice for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:24 – Introduction to Nicolas Dujovne
05:32 – Key reflections from Dujovne's former role as ministry of Treasury in Argentina
11:43 – How dollarization could change the overall dynamic of the economy
14:52 – How Dujovne's role as minister has shaped his investment process
16:56 – The state and outlook of emerging markets
21:13 – The relationship between central banks and emerging markets
23:33 – How the current globalization impact the investing landscape
27:43 – Evaluating the U.S from the lens of an emerging market investor
33:25 – How markets respond to fiscal dominance
37:16 – Are we going into a secular decline?
39:19 – How demographics impact emerging market investing
42:35 – Cheap manufacturing chains in emerging markets
44:17 – Finding investment opportunities in emerging market
46:45 – The maturity of emerging markets
48:14 – The preconditions for structural outperformance of emerging markets
51:08 – How important are commodities for emerging market trading?
52:48 – The energy demand for emerging markets
54:44 – Themes that will dominate the emerging market space in the coming years
56:12 – Advice for other emerging market investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 – Introduction to Anna Wong
03:57 – The current state of Fed
06:35 – A potential flare up in inflation
16:19 – Wong's read on the labour market
22:50 – Fed's inflation argument makes no sense
28:59 – The outlook of the housing market
31:15 – Is AI destroying the labour market?
34:20 – The future direction of the Fed and the potential candidates
40:10 – The Fed is losing its balance
48:43 – How increasing Trump representatives could impact the Fed
51:58 – How monetary policy will unfold going forward
54:43 – How we achieve a healthy level of debt and growth
58:47 – Trump wants a weak dollar
01:00:59 – Why Wong is optimistic about AI's impact on GDP growth

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 – (Re)Introduction to Louis Gave
03:45 – Gave's analysis of the current economic data
09:45 – What causes the weakening of the economy?
11:54 – The outlook for tariffs – will they eventually become stable?
16:16 – The future for inflation – will it become more persistent over time?
20:43 – The risk factors of energy markets
25:51 – Will we see a Fed cut in September?
26:58 – Powell – in or out?
31:13 – We are seeing a paradigm shift in the US Dollar
38:26 – The outcome of the AI revolution
43:03 – Deficits are like tequila shots
46:55 – We started an equity bull market in China – but one is involved
55:49 – The impact of tariffs on global macro

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 – Introduction to Steven Bell
05:37 – Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed?
10:27 – Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days?
13:11 – Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets?
16:48 – Tariffs disappearing? Forget it
21:41 – The economic impact of the recent CPI data
24:38 – How tariffs will impact workers and productivity
28:54 – Bell's outlook for inflation
32:15 – Do deficits even matter?
36:51 – How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be?
44:16 – Who is a likely replacement for Powell?
45:11 – An AI productivity boom
49:14 – Bell's outlook for the economy
56:32 – Navigating the consensus view on the dollar as an economist
01:01:06 – Macro advise for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:58 – Revisiting the Income Driven Expansion
12:30 – Inflation Dynamics and Economic Policy
15:31 – The Dynamics of Labor and Immigration
27:58 – Strategic Decoupling and Its Implications
32:04 – The Economic Implications of Manufacturing in China
42:13 – Economic Growth and Market Dynamics
48:28 – The Evolving Landscape of Investment Strategies
53:25 – Understanding Alpha Strategies and Portfolio Diversification
01:01:10 – The Dynamics of Hedge Fund Strategies and Correlation
01:09:34 – Global Macro Trends and Financial Decoupling

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:16 – Introduction to Barry Eichengreen
03:51 – The Future of the Dollar: Concerns and Predictions
14:29 – Fiscal Challenges and Policy Responses
33:04 – Analyzing Economic Policies and Their Impacts
49:18 – Global Economic Perspectives: Trade Wars and Currency Alternatives
56:46 – The Future of Global Currency Systems

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 – Introduction to Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh
09:21 – What kind of feedback do they get from clients?*
13:04 – Stocks for the long run?
17:41 – Is the US losing its grip on its economy?
24:08 – Are indicies becoming more crucial for portfolios?
25:39 – Ranking equity markets according to risk
27:22 – How often should we expect economic collapses?
29:13 – The surprising outcomes of bonds
34:00 – Bonds – are we returning to 1999?
38:31 – Which asset classes are the optimal inflation hedges?
40:47 – Where do most of their returns come from?
41:56 – How they approach the evolving interest rate landscape
43:49 – The state of Bitcoin and alternative assets
49:59 – Key insights to factor investing
54:38 – Is value investing becoming structurally more challenged?
55:48 – Performance expectations in the major asset classes
57:36 – Advice for constructing a solid long term portfolio

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:21 – Introduction to Demetri Kofinas
04:39 – The era of financial nihilism
11:44 – The birth of a radical optimism?
20:10 – The risk of not heeding the call
26:16 – The dark side of smoothing the business cycle
29:14 – What have we lost in the vacuum of consequence?
33:39 – The collapse of the social contract
38:25 – The importance of a unified narrative
47:16 – Technology – a driver of unity or disunity?
50:05 – The role of government in libertarianism
53:12 – How far are we from a fourth turning?
56:25 – Crisis is a perception relative to where you are