TTU Trend Barometer
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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:31 – Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context
07:15 – Are people over-fixated on data?
09:04 – Is Geopolitical analysis useless?
16:43 – Making assumptions
19:38 – The challenges with data
28:36 – Indicators of volatility
32:26 – Quantifying the fundamental value
37:02 – Having an edge in oil
45:27 – Understanding the CRT Report
49:17 – Oil price – a play on the dollar?
52:27 – An indicator for the state of the world
57:06 – How are oil and natural gas related?
01:00:58 – Fertilizer's impact on natural gas
01:02:43 – The research perspective
01:04:32 – Key takeaways from Niels

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:35 – Introduction to Jeff Currie
04:18 – A new kind of inflation?
08:41 – Policy and what drives inflation
15:41 – The outlook for the demand side
22:45 – Short term position and the commodity space
28:11: – Disruptions in infrastructure
31:17 – The rise of OPEC
33:32 – Status on the strategic oil reserve
34:20 – Volatility in oil
39:45 – Are we running out of metal?
44:12 – The situation with gas
48:15 – What is the solution?
50:12 – Problems with agriculture
53:54 – Dealing with global warming
59:44 – Profiting from the commodity super cycle
01:01:54 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:00 – About Dave and his work
06:04 – Are big pension funds failing?
11:21 – A fragile world
19:54 – How Dave thinks about liquidity
25:20 – What does cheap actually mean?
34:23 – What might be next for volatility
41:43 – The next Korean ship builder?
46:19 – Is forecasting pointless?
51:00 – Improve your convexity = improve your life
59:37 – What is cheap today?
01:13:14 – Time for some outrageous predictions
01:18:49 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:07 – The state of agriculture
10:10 – How Sunspots are affecting the earth?
15:22 – What drives the climate?
19:00 – Why are the winds over the Pacific so significant?
21:18 – The World is moving into a new phase
27:39 – Predicting the weather?
36:10 – Positioning risk and classification
44:56 – The impact of currencies
49:08 – Weather Volatility – good or bad?
50:41 – Assisting the farmers
55:15 – Investing in agriculture
01:01:36 – Great Summary from Hackett
01:08:33 – Key takeaways from Niels

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:56 – Introduction to Marco Papic
10:35 – Is geopolitical analysis even valid?
14:23 – Go to the insiders if you want geopolitical analysis?
21:04 – How can geopolitical analysis be exploited like investment constraints?
25:42 – What actually causes recessions?
32:33 – Using constraints based analysis
37:15 – What is the median voter theory?
40:33 – Are median voters controlled by media?
45:24 – The role of Bayesian analysis
53:02 – Papic’s take on spread trades
59:13 – Is the dollar overvalued?
01:03:46 – Predicting an invasion
01:09:20 – A strengthening of the Baltic states
01:17:08 – Key takeaways from Niels

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:58 – Introduction to Simon Hunt
06:30 – The process of Hunt’s work
13:12 – Hunt’s global macro view
20:52 – Are we approaching a 3rd World War?
27:56 – What will happen to interest rates?
29:43 – What about equities?
33:22 – Is it all about to crash?
34:33 – A commodity super cycle?
41:13 – The relationship between the different currencies
43:21 – How Hunt currently invest
45:12 – What keeps Hunt up at night?
46:49 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:12 – Introduction to William White
04:38 – Discussing White’s paper about monetary policies
10:32 – What has driven the inflation to this point?
23:05 – Inflation targeting – a great succes? 
33:18 – Are we seeing the right policy?
40:33 – The debt problem
52:24 – Has central bank credibility been undermined?
58:18 – Seduced by their own billions
01:03:33 – A weaponization of the dollar
01:10:12 – What about Europe?
01:19:03 – White’s recommendations for aspiring economists
01:24:39 – Key takeaways from Niels

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Follow Adam on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:06 – The highlights of the previous conversation on energy supply
13:02 – Adam’s perspective on the demand side
21:57 – Blame it on the inflation?
29:11 – The opportunities of a divided world
36:50 – Has demand actually decreased? 
42:40 – What can go wrong in regards to the election?
51:00 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:58 – Introduction to Michael Gayed
06:05 – What did Michael learn from the Great Recession?
13:37 – Using the S&P instead of realized volatility
17:21 – Treasuries – A safe asset?
23:22 – A mixed picture in terms of risk
26:39 – Why Lumber instead of Copper?
30:13 – Is the (inversion of the) yield curve still valid?
31:53 – What about the asset class cycle?
34:34 – Higher rates = increased economic activity?
37:27 – Being persistent is key
39:34 – Will yields come in very sharply?
42:02 – The problem of the inflation narrative
45:31 – Allocating to ETFs and funds
48:48 – The sad side to the business
58:26 – Key takeaways from Niels

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Adam on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:01 – Heading into the winter
10:42 – Flood the market with oil…a good idea?
14:50 – Understanding the supply side
29:30 – Venezuela – A hot spot?
33:21 – Is the SPR in trouble?
40:12 – The role of the different energy commodities
42:51 – Why convergence and how to take advantage of it
51:56 – The end of energy abundance
59:57 – Is nuclear the future?
01:05:18 – Thanks for listening

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Michael on LinkedIn and read his book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:51 – Introduction to Michael Howell and his work
07:38 – How much debt is there globally?
14:08 – Why is longer-term treasuries desirable?
16:08 – The off-shore market 
19:56 – The capital war between China and the U.S.
41:37 – Is the financial system more fragile than we think?
50:10 – What if the 10-year bond yield blows out rapidly?
53:59 – What has happened with the offshore short-term market?
59:55 – The currency space and relative liquidity
01:02:31 – Comments on the current regime
01:08:18 – Key takeaways from Niels

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:54 – Looking back on previous guests and how they have impacted our thinking
09:17 – Thoughts on the Fed and a historical perspective
21:11 – How much power and control does the Fed actually have?
31:02 – Low interest rates… a bubble maker?
40:03 – The inverted yield curve…a sign?
49:26 – Using volatility as a guide for equity markets
59:14 – What happens to the dollar?
01:04:13 – What should investors be considering at this point?
01:12:24 – Thanks for listening

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