TTU Trend Barometer
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Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 – Introduction to Keith McCullough
05:01 – From hedge fund to research
07:29 – Being a retail investor is an insult
09:56 – How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options
13:48 – Have stocks become more macro driven?
15:54 – Where are we currently in the 4 quads?
19:22 – The challenge of lag in macro signals
21:26 – McCullough's framework for monitoring signals
24:25 – When can herding be a distraction?
26:54 – The current market from a quad perspective
31:09 – Reassessing the narrative of the deficits
35:50 – The outlook of the dollar
38:16 – The (un?)importance of valuations
41:07 – How the state of China influences McCulloughs model and framework
43:15 – Getting on the right side of the K
45:12 – The market from the 3 pots perspective
48:33 – Developing a respect for the markets
52:07 – McCullough's advice for preserving your wealth
56:01 – McCullough's philosophy to investing
58:33 – McCullough's perspective on systematic trend following
59:50 – Advice for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:25 – Introduction to Steve Miran
05:53 – Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?
10:24 – How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work
15:26 – Treasury is not a market timer
17:39 – Getting lost in the Fed jargon
21:06 – What is driving the increasing yields?
24:38 – The refunding – Miran's expectations
27:26 – The state of the labour market
32:48 – How is Fed handling the economy at the moment?
34:21 – What is plausible range for the neutral rate?
37:07 – Is there a better way to run policy?
40:42 – The economic impact of the election outcome
45:54 – The challenges of regulatory policy
48:57 – Who will be the Treasury Secretary?
50:14 – Will a win for Trump mean bigger concerns for the deficits?
53:49 – The outlook for fixed income
56:07 – Geopolitical concerns
57:37 – Advice for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 – Introduction to Jason Furman
04:28 – The state of the economy
04:42 – Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
06:01 – Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
09:40 – The outlook for inflation
12:34 – A move in the right direction?
14:34 – Is the neutral rate a useful concept?
17:35 – The risk of being too sensitive to current data
21:05 – Is the shift towards transparency actually positive?
22:28 – Is the economy too complicated to forecast?
23:44 – Is the era of ultra low rates behind us?
26:46 – Furman's thoughts on the U.S deficits
28:29 – Has the Treasury managed the situation right?
31:34 – Will the political environment change due to larger acceptance to deficits?
34:46 – Will Powell and Trump be able to communicate?
36:32 – A win for Trump = the end of the Fed?
37:57 – Is the Fed in danger?
39:24 – Will the increasing debt levels cause quantitative easing?
40:54 – Productivity – reasons to be optimistic?
43:57 – Is AI a threat to employment?
45:25 – Furman's perspective on the industrial policy
49:33 – Are we going too far in the wrong direction?
51:06 – China's influence on the global economy
54:05 – The outlook of economical growth
55:38 – Is Europe in trouble?
57:12 – Advice for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:27 – Introduction to Louis Gave
03:50 – Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?
09:20 – Can China restore their foreign capital flow?
13:40 – The state of Chinese fiscal policy
19:12 – A flash point in Chinese overcapacity
24:14 – A commodity catalyst – reflation incoming?
28:46 – Will the U.S experience a recession soon?
36:48 – A fiscal crisis in the U.S?
40:32 – The economic challenges that France faces
43:09 – The state of the European economy
47:20 – Welfare states are falling apart
49:48 – The U.S. election – how will it impact investors?
54:00 – How Trump would handle the current global conflicts
56:59 – Trump interfering with the Fed
59:26 – A weak dollar = pressure on bonds?
01:00:05 – Still bullish on emerging markets?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:02 – How carry trading has evolved since “The Rise of Carry” was published
06:04 – How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis
09:12 – Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?
17:02 – Was SVB a lucky escape?
23:15 – S&P 500 – the essence of a carry trade?
30:16 – Short-term moves are being exacerbated
32:30 – VIX inversions and structural changes
34:23 – What are the characteristics of a carry trade?
37:58 – A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?
45:09 – How could you make money from a carry unwind?
49:13 – Will we ever get away from the Fed Put?
53:47 – A new way of treating the S&P 500
56:33 – How the carry regime impacts the economy
59:15 – The impact of geopolitics on carry

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 – Catching up
05:00 – What has happened since we last spoke?
12:58 – The state of the metal sector
22:06 – Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading
28:41 – Getting the timing right
42:51 – It's all about volatility
44:38 – Playing the long game
47:46 – Are investors positioning wrong?
52:40 – A carry trade bubble
54:29 – Why are many investors bullish on copper?
01:01:12 – Why are copper prices going down?
01:05:13 – Demographics – a bizarre kind of beast
01:08:40 – An over-demand of assets in China?
01:12:54 – Thoughts on the recent decline in oil
01:15:44 – What is the current level of the U.S strategic reserve?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:12 – Introduction to Michael Howell
03:15 – Howell's framework for looking at markets
06:32 – How Asian central banks impact U.S equities
09:17 – Do different types of liquidity have different effects?
12:17 – The last 15 years from a liquidity perspective
18:19 – Is liquidity the driver of the bond yield moves?
23:08 – Why has the quantitative tightening not been more disruptive?
32:44 – Is a debt crisis in sight?
39:48 – Howell's advice for allocating assets
42:45 – What has caused the reversal of the Yen?
48:02 – How to distinguish between capital flows and hedging activity
49:44 – Why are the G10 currencies so stable?
51:18 – A risk point on the radar
52:23 – The implications of the shift towards private credit financing
55:02 – A favorable environment for risk assets?
59:15 – Is Howell skeptical about the Chinese currency?
01:00:11 – The outlook of the liquidity cycle

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 – What has changed since our last conversation?
07:29 – Signs of weakness?
09:31 – The key indicators of weakness
12:15 – Are we actually becoming more wealthy?
15:26 – Assessing the savings rate
17:02 – Berezin's model for analyzing the economy
20:04 – Is the lag kicking in now?
22:00 – Challenges in the banking system
24:37 – Are we seeing a tail wind from fiscal support?
27:11 – Why Berezin thinks the stock market is 50% overvalued
29:26 – Are AI companies in trouble?
35:51 – The long term economic impacts of AI
37:46 – Boosts in inventories: A tipping point to the economy?
40:17 – Berezin's outlook for Fed policy
42:47 – Rate cuts = recession?
45:42 – The state and outlook of the U.S housing market
47:25 – An unsustainable budget outlook
50:44 – Will we see a strengthening of the dollar?
52:19 – An upside for the yen
53:53 – A collective cutting of rates
55:06 – Has globalization run its course?
56:40 – The structural outlook for commodities
58:51 – What should you focus on?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 – Introduction to Aswath Damodaran
03:30 – Nvidia – bullish or bearish?
04:47 – How AI will impact the economy
10:48 – How to make better valuations in AI and technology stocks
14:36 – How to distinguish AI stocks from each other
17:58 – A sticky market
22:40 – How should you act to the AI boom as an investor?
31:07 – Are value investor becoming obsolete?
35:49 – What is the equity risk premium?
40:28 – How much equity risk premium is enough?
45:08 – Dealing with macro shocks and timing the markets
50:01 – Inflation and its impact on stocks
51:51 – Don't rely on the P/E ratio alone
53:08 – The link between GDP and earnings
54:31 – The importance of investing globally
57:35 – Can assets with no cash flows be valued?
58:27 – Managing the risk
01:01:56 – Advice for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:45 – The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy
10:29 – Inflation expectations and the Trump trade
18:38 – What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?
27:10 – What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation
34:16 – It's all about getting the distribution right
46:26 – Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election
51:20 – What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?
55:38 – Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?
01:02:31 – A “Golden” idea

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 – Introduction to Adam Posen
05:45 – Was it all about luck?
07:40 – Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?
12:06 – Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?
13:56 – The political pressure on central banks
16:48 – The challenges of inflation targeting
23:47 – A micro-managing nightmare?
29:50 – What are the most important factors for policy makers?
35:16 – The lags of monetary policy
39:47 – How the structure of the economy impacts the monetary transmission mechanism
48:15 – Posen's view on the economy
51:07 – Are central banks inflating the debt away?
53:49 – A Fiscal crisis incoming?
01:00:10 – Artificial Intelligence – a game changer?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 – Introduction to Claudia Sahm
04:26 – The background behind the Sahm Rule
08:34 – Does the current data call for a recession?
12:37 – Putting the data together
18:16 – Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?
23:51 – What can we rely on as investors?
29:48 – What is unusual about this inflation cycle?
35:32 – The balance of the dual mandate
40:42 – The state of physical policy
45:32 – The growth picture from a long term perspective
50:32 – The positive sides of inflation
53:17 – Book recommendations and advice for other investors