TTU Trend Barometer
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Trend Following: Is it for you?
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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged
01:57 – Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed
05:15 – Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s
11:39 – How quickly could AI actually boost productivity?
15:47 – Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data?
18:56 – Does AI change how we should think about the economy?
21:41 – AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust
26:18 – Why bond yields could have further to rise
31:13 – When higher interest rates might actually be good news
33:17 – US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium
37:04 – China and the return of global economic imbalances
42:11 – How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world
48:50 – Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China
52:01 – Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen
58:33 – Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change next

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else
01:05 – Introducing Marvin Barth
04:46 – From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve
09:09 – Has central banking become too confident in its own models?
16:25 – Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean
18:15 – Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy
25:56 – Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity?
31:25 – Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system
35:31 – Is there another way out for the US economy?
40:29 – The big debate over populism and inequality
47:39 – Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits
57:59 – Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations
59:46 – Austerity versus monetizing the debt
01:02:06 – How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets
01:11:26 – Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics
09:30 – The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets
15:38 – Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading
21:57 – China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets
31:23 – Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected
37:13 – China's long term energy transition and global demand implications
43:59 – Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals
48:12 – The outlook for oil markets over the coming months
58:25 – Gold, investor positioning and what could trigger the next rally
01:02:59 – Strategic government investment and the future of critical commodities
01:09:22 – Why energy remains the biggest opportunity in the AI boom
01:11:53 – Final thoughts on where commodity markets go from here

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Why the Fed's balance sheet deserves far more scrutiny
00:57 – Brendan Greeley's journey from journalism to monetary history
06:36 – How studying financial history changed his view of economics
11:38 – The hidden difference between big money and small money
17:43 – How the dollar existed before the United States
26:40 – Why the dollar became the world's reserve currency
29:36 – The birth of the Eurodollar market and offshore money creation
34:53 – What really supports the dollar's global dominance
40:09 – Could global finance split into competing currency blocs
44:21 – Has the Federal Reserve become too powerful
50:01 – Why QE, the Fed's balance sheet and future reforms matter
52:53 – Brendan Greeley's essential book recommendation

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Why Pippa believes the future is far more optimistic than most expect
01:05 – Reuniting after four years and revisiting major geopolitical themes
03:11 – Digital finance, transparency and the changing role of the US Treasury
06:40 – Ukraine, foreign policy and the debate over hidden funding networks
12:01 – Why Pippa believes the world is moving toward a superpower rapprochement
22:17 – The US dollar, China and competing visions of global leadership
30:49 – Lessons from history, diplomacy and the search for lasting peace
39:38 – Nuclear energy, AI and the race toward technological abundance
45:48 – Populism, inequality and whether AI will widen or close the wealth gap
55:32 – How societies can prepare for an AI driven future
58:10 – Greenland, the Arctic and the strategic battle for space infrastructure
01:04:20 – Pippa's father, diplomacy and the lessons that shaped her worldview
01:09:28 – Non human intelligence, AI and the profound questions facing humanity

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Michael Pettis warns that the real trade reckoning may still lie ahead
01:07 – Introduction to Michael Pettis and his background in finance and economics
06:34 – Why trade imbalances are ultimately driven by income imbalances
09:59 – Germany’s Hartz reforms and the roots of European imbalances
17:22 – Competitiveness versus productivity and the hidden costs of wage suppression
27:48 – China’s growth model and why rebalancing has proved so difficult
35:54 – Who will absorb China’s trade surplus if the US closes its deficit?
40:24 – Can the United States successfully reindustrialize?
45:31 – Why Europe may eventually turn toward protectionism
52:17 – The US deficit, global capital flows and the burden of dollar dominance
01:01:50 – Why the renminbi is unlikely to replace the dollar
01:10:45 – Historical trade imbalances and how painful adjustments unfold
01:16:21 – What Japan’s experience reveals about China’s future
01:21:02 – Final reflections on debt, globalization and economic adjustment

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Hari warns about a fragile financial system dependent on a handful of decision-makers
01:06 – Niels introduces Hari’s new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm
03:00 – Why passive investing may weaken the link between fundamentals and prices
08:40 – The key assumptions behind the model
12:49 – How passive adoption accelerated structural market changes
15:11 – Cem explains why markets may now drive the economy rather than reflect it
23:38 – Can policymakers control a complex financial system?
27:03 – How passive flows amplify mega-cap concentration
31:22 – The changing role of dispersion, volatility and positioning
41:04 – What the model suggests about instability at high passive ownership levels
46:21 – Why 2022 may have been a warning sign
51:55 – Inflation, government intervention and the limits of market control
55:33 – What could trigger a systemic break?
01:07:28 – Political and demographic pressures beneath the system
01:10:43 – Hari’s portfolio implications: stay long, hedge smartly and own inflation sensitivity

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Stablecoins, financial stability, and uncertain impact
01:00 – David Beckworth’s path into macroeconomics
05:43 – How central banks should respond to supply shocks
08:56 – Why policymakers struggle to separate supply vs demand
11:58 – Inflation expectations and post-COVID sensitivity
14:46 – Are central banks over-reliant on flawed inflation models?
18:49 – AI as a positive supply shock: hype vs reality
22:00 – Productivity booms, deflation, and policy challenges
25:11 – Kevin Warsh, AI optimism, and the Fed’s future direction
29:33 – QE, QT, and the long-term impact on financial markets
33:28 – The “ratchet effect” and why the Fed can’t shrink easily
37:59 – Liquidity: abundant or an illusion?
41:38 – Are markets addicted to central bank liquidity?
44:21 – Fiscal dominance and the long-term risk to central banks
53:54 – Stablecoins, dollar dominance, and global demand
59:10 – Private credit and the evolving financial system
01:00:49 – Books, learning, and building a career in macro

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Why Philip Diehl believes investors should “buy the dip” in gold
01:14 – Philip’s career from public policy to the U.S. Mint
06:08 – What U.S. Money Reserve does and why physical gold matters
08:08 – The forces behind gold’s powerful multi-year rally
13:08 – Central bank buying, dollar risk, and portfolio diversification
19:05 – Why some central banks may sell gold during stress
22:18 – Chinese demand, cultural memory, and the role of retail buyers
28:32 – Why Philip does not see Bitcoin as “digital gold”
32:44 – Physical gold versus ETFs and the question of ownership
37:10 – How retail investors behave during gold bull markets
41:16 – Portfolio allocation and the changing case for gold
45:52 – Why Philip expects gold to outperform equities over the next decade
48:15 – Why today’s gold market is not a repeat of the 1970s
52:21 – Gold miners, production limits, and rising extraction costs
55:58 – Fort Knox, revaluing U.S. gold reserves, and political reality
59:24 – Lessons from Philip’s career and how to learn more about gold

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:13 – Introduction and framing the confidence discussion
02:53 – The K shaped world and rising vulnerability
04:43 – Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom
06:48 – Confidence and policymaker decision making
09:27 – From hubris to desperation in global systems
12:23 – Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives
17:05 – Leadership confidence and timing of conflict
19:09 – Affordability crisis and consumer pressure
22:43 – War priorities vs economic priorities
25:53 – Control, drafts, and growing tension
29:11 – Authoritarian drift and system constraints
33:51 – Speed of crises in a connected world
39:22 – Overconfidence and blindness to risk
48:15 – Powerlessness as the trigger for change

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:38 – Introducing Steen Jakobsen
03:45 – From trading floors to outrageous predictions
06:32 – Dollar hedging and regime shift signals
08:06 – Davos as a macro catalyst
12:11 – The K shaped U.S. economy
14:50 – State capitalism and fiscal dominance
17:30 – What could invalidate the bearish dollar view
21:37 – Fed independence and policy credibility
24:49 – AI productivity or structural disinflation
27:56 – The modern Soviet analogy
31:21 – Democracy, debt and slow breakdown
33:18 – What could finally trigger market stress
37:08 – Commodities and tangible asset repricing
47:02 – Gold as a debasement signal

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar
00:37 – Show intro and risk disclaimer
01:33 – Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change
04:34 – The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking
06:39 – Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export
09:14 – Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem
12:02 – Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset
14:44 – America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism”
18:32 – Trump-era economic ideology: the coalition, “333,” and running the economy hot
23:06 – The Fed under Warsh: rates, QT, balance sheet politics, and liquidity consequences
28:21 – Portfolio reality: slow rotation, hidden tech exposure, and where diversification breaks
41:22 – Gold, reserves, and the end of inflation targeting as a defining shift