TTU Trend Barometer
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Trend Following: Is it for you?
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And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar
00:37 – Show intro and risk disclaimer
01:33 – Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change
04:34 – The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking
06:39 – Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export
09:14 – Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem
12:02 – Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset
14:44 – America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism”
18:32 – Trump-era economic ideology: the coalition, “333,” and running the economy hot
23:06 – The Fed under Warsh: rates, QT, balance sheet politics, and liquidity consequences
28:21 – Portfolio reality: slow rotation, hidden tech exposure, and where diversification breaks
41:22 – Gold, reserves, and the end of inflation targeting as a defining shift

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening remarks and context
02:25 – Global uncertainty and growth expectations
05:00 – The K-shaped economy under scrutiny
08:12 – Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects
11:07 – Fed independence and political pressure
17:06 – The race to appoint the next Fed chair
26:35 – Productivity data and the AI narrative
35:51 – Labor market stall speed debate
39:56 – Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk
46:03 – Japan’s normalization and demographic myths
49:46 – Europe’s fiscal pivot and growth outlook
53:28 – Defense spending as an industrial catalyst
58:13 – China’s rebalancing challenge
01:00:29 – Optimism, overheating, and how the cycle may end

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Cold open and warning on a return to 19th century style imperialism
00:23 – Niels and Alan introduce Mark Blyth and set the macro context
02:24 – From Scottish childhood to monetarism and the politics of macro ideas
08:33 – Capitalism as hardware and software and the recurring crashes of each regime
15:32 – The slow death of neoliberalism and the rise of populist reactions
18:57 – Deficits, austerity, bond vigilantes and why the house is on fire anyway
23:49 – Affordability, grocery prices, housing and the disconnect in elite dashboards
29:02 – Generational conflict, asset concentration and the missing left response
35:42 – Aging, health care, migration and the politics of who does the caring
40:43 – Inflation myths, central bank limits and lessons from recent shocks
45:13 – Britain’s broken growth model, deindustrialization and the London problem
48:01 – Industrial policy, defence, housing and what a real project state would do
53:14 – Trump’s hemispheric vision, hydrocarbons, and a world of regional satrapies
59:03 – Dollar power, cheaper currency strategy and fragile growth built on tech valuations
01:02:33 – Long term outlook, risks, and the books that still explain the mess we are in

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Why unchecked booms become more dangerous over time
01:37 – Setting the stage for a new global macro regime
03:53 – From disinflation to persistent inflation pressure
07:10 – Supply side forces reversing after decades of support
12:07 – Debt accumulation and unintended policy consequences
13:03 – Why higher rates did not trigger an immediate crisis
18:53 – Debt dynamics and the problem of sustainability
19:57 – Tipping points and the psychology of market breaks
26:40 – What happens when trust in central banks erodes
35:51 – AI optimism and the risk of large scale malinvestment
39:44 – Lessons from financial history and false starts
41:08 – Why economic models failed to see this coming
48:32 – The dollar, fragmentation, and global currency shifts
57:56 – Europe’s opportunity and its unresolved risks
01:03:24 – Complexity, politics, and why forecasting breaks down

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions
00:44 – Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion
01:40 – Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives
02:24 – Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders
04:00 – Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it
07:02 – The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes
08:17 – Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump’s second term
10:06 – Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump 2.0
14:27 – The economic agenda redefining tariffs, reshoring and political constituencies
17:17 – Manufacturing limits, automation and long term structural realities
21:11 – Tariffs, tax politics and the competing factions within the Republican Party
21:50 – Deregulation, AI, Silicon Valley realignment and state influence
26:34 – The affordability crisis and political expectations around prices
31:23 – Prospects for Democrats in 2026 and shifting electoral dynamics
59:32 – A global lens on rising nationalism, new hegemons and the future of the EU

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening and disclaimer
02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus
06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly
11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base
16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing
22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects
25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs
27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt
29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences
33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China tactics
38:01 – Belt & Road 2.0: fewer loans, more influence
42:56 – Capital controls and the ceiling on RMB internationalization
49:00 – Hong Kong’s evolving financial role
50:54 – CCP control after the plenum; succession optics
53:47 – Taiwan scenarios and risk contours
55:51 – Plateau vs. precipice: what could still break
57:54 – Career advice for macro and China analysis

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction
03:12 – The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles
08:44 – Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes
13:47 – The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets
20:47 – Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system
27:33 – Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation
34:57 – The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk
41:40 – Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”
49:10 – Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle for supply
55:48 – Oil’s forgotten value and echoes of past energy cycles
01:00:19 – Gold, miners, and the new hierarchy of precious assets
01:07:23 – Helium, the next frontier, and closing reflections on a changing world

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 – Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld
05:26 – The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
08:14 – What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?
11:13 – Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?
18:42 – How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar
27:19 – Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?
29:50 – What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?
34:20 – A possible financial repression incoming?
36:25 – The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically
39:16 – A fork in the road for the Fed
47:19 – From problem to crisis
51:32 – Is Obstfeld optimistic about AI?
53:06 – The end of the neoliberal era – what comes next?
58:00 – Advice for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:24 – Introduction to Nicolas Dujovne
05:32 – Key reflections from Dujovne's former role as ministry of Treasury in Argentina
11:43 – How dollarization could change the overall dynamic of the economy
14:52 – How Dujovne's role as minister has shaped his investment process
16:56 – The state and outlook of emerging markets
21:13 – The relationship between central banks and emerging markets
23:33 – How the current globalization impact the investing landscape
27:43 – Evaluating the U.S from the lens of an emerging market investor
33:25 – How markets respond to fiscal dominance
37:16 – Are we going into a secular decline?
39:19 – How demographics impact emerging market investing
42:35 – Cheap manufacturing chains in emerging markets
44:17 – Finding investment opportunities in emerging market
46:45 – The maturity of emerging markets
48:14 – The preconditions for structural outperformance of emerging markets
51:08 – How important are commodities for emerging market trading?
52:48 – The energy demand for emerging markets
54:44 – Themes that will dominate the emerging market space in the coming years
56:12 – Advice for other emerging market investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 – Introduction to Anna Wong
03:57 – The current state of Fed
06:35 – A potential flare up in inflation
16:19 – Wong's read on the labour market
22:50 – Fed's inflation argument makes no sense
28:59 – The outlook of the housing market
31:15 – Is AI destroying the labour market?
34:20 – The future direction of the Fed and the potential candidates
40:10 – The Fed is losing its balance
48:43 – How increasing Trump representatives could impact the Fed
51:58 – How monetary policy will unfold going forward
54:43 – How we achieve a healthy level of debt and growth
58:47 – Trump wants a weak dollar
01:00:59 – Why Wong is optimistic about AI's impact on GDP growth

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 – (Re)Introduction to Louis Gave
03:45 – Gave's analysis of the current economic data
09:45 – What causes the weakening of the economy?
11:54 – The outlook for tariffs – will they eventually become stable?
16:16 – The future for inflation – will it become more persistent over time?
20:43 – The risk factors of energy markets
25:51 – Will we see a Fed cut in September?
26:58 – Powell – in or out?
31:13 – We are seeing a paradigm shift in the US Dollar
38:26 – The outcome of the AI revolution
43:03 – Deficits are like tequila shots
46:55 – We started an equity bull market in China – but one is involved
55:49 – The impact of tariffs on global macro

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 – Introduction to Steven Bell
05:37 – Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed?
10:27 – Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days?
13:11 – Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets?
16:48 – Tariffs disappearing? Forget it
21:41 – The economic impact of the recent CPI data
24:38 – How tariffs will impact workers and productivity
28:54 – Bell's outlook for inflation
32:15 – Do deficits even matter?
36:51 – How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be?
44:16 – Who is a likely replacement for Powell?
45:11 – An AI productivity boom
49:14 – Bell's outlook for the economy
56:32 – Navigating the consensus view on the dollar as an economist
01:01:06 – Macro advise for other investors