TTU Trend Barometer
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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 – What does confidence mean to Peter?
04:38 – The feeling of vulnerability
06:19 – Being in the present
07:57 – Understanding the confidence map
12:08 – How to become confident
13:32 – Peter's advice for the younger audience
17:02 – Having confidence is not a constant
17:48 – Learnings from a traumatic experience
21:23 – Map it out
22:33 – Why is sentiment changing so quickly?
28:05 – The generational shift
30:49 – Is crypto the new Woodstock?
36:15 – Is the Fed losing the confidence of the markets?
42:57 – When does panic occur?
44:28 – Does it apply to markets as well?
48:34 – Thoughts on the current political situation
56:51 – Addressing major societal problems
02:03:56 – The challenges of fake news and media
02:06:14 – Process – an underrated advantage?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 – Introduction to Chen Zhao
06:19 – Why has the economy been so resilient?
11:20 – The typical electoral cycle?
16:44 – The outlook for inflation
19:27 – Concerns about stagflation – valid or not?
26:07 – Rates going back to zero?
28:48 – Achieving high sustained investment growth
31:01 – The effect of moving towards climate friendly production
32:57 – China – a deflationary force
38:38 – Bond yields – any surprises?
39:29 – Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?
42:07 – Have yields reached their peak?
42:54 – The situation in Europe
45:20 – Back to the 2010s?
46:36 – A global increase in spending?
47:37 – Concerns from a global risk perspective
51:00 – The Japanese economy
52:35 – The outlook for emerging markets
54:45 – Advice for other traders
55:59 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 – Introduction to Peter Berezin
05:35 – The current state of the U.S economy
10:14 – Where is inflation heading?
16:24 – A wrong prediction?
20:23 – How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?
24:39 – How has the economy withstood higher rates?
27:10 – What does Peter's models show us?
31:32 – Challenges in the credit space
33:33 – The implications of high valuations
36:08 – Potential weaknesses in the system
40:45 – Looking outside of the U.S.
44:43 – The outlook for currencies
47:03 – Emerging markets and the geopolitical situation in China
49:43 – How is Asia holding up?
52:08 – Are we going to see changes in the inflation target?
56:21 – The big picture view over the next decade
58:23 – Advice for new investors
59:37 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 – Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave
05:28 – Is the economy starting to crack?
10:40 – When is the recession coming?
13:13 – The outlook for inflation
18:36 – The problem with designification
21:18 – The challenges of Chinese economy
27:56 – Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?
31:31 – Looking beyond the U.S and China
36:12 – An epic boom in emerging markets
40:20 – The structural growth in China
43:28 – Middle East joining forces
46:53 – Dealing with the debt
50:43 – Inverted yield curve and the bond market
54:09 – How will AI affect the economy?
59:22 – Good advice and book recommendations
01:02:00 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 – The big macro picture
14:09 – The debt problem in China
20:39 – The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict
24:57 – Kao's view on supply and demand
31:17 – How does Fed power affect oil?
38:41 – A complicated dynamic
41:54 – Can we actually trust anyone?
45:29 – The shadow banking system and refinancing risk
48:53 – A structural problem
51:59 – Reimagining safe assets
58:27 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 – Introduction to Mika Kastenholz
09:25 – Working with econophysics
10:52 – Finding the perfect size
12:05 – Mika's view on naive sizing
13:19 – The macro perspective
16:27 – Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve
18:46 – A changing environment
21:01 – The impact of post 2008 regulations
23:29 – Hedging the autocallable structures
29:30 – Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage
31:42 – Swing options – a relic of the past?
33:30 – Has the depth of the markets decreased?
35:31 – How does cross margining work today?
36:51 – What happens with a large client trade?
38:59 – Dealing with regulations
42:51 – Are banks too focused on short-term dynamic risk management?
45:48 – What if every bank had the same risk limits?
48:15 – Are the banks aware of network effects?
50:13 – Is the complex systems push overstated?
54:09 – An anomaly that could be exploited?
57:06 – A confused market
59:19 – The outlook for the term premia
01:01:10 – Key takeaways from Niels

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:23 – Introduction to David Rosenberg
08:00 – Rosenberg's research process
11:56 – The importance of historical awareness
25:00 – Disruptions in the demand curve
31:16 – Getting the timing right
43:54 – The longer term trajectory
52:58 – Dealing with high debt levels
57:12 – A shift in the political landscape
01:00:56 – Learning more about global macro
01:05:02 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 – What has happened since our previous conversation?
06:03 – Making sense of the oil market
10:44 – Signs of a put on the oil market
16:38 – The situation with natural gas
25:13 – Has the gas situation been improved?
32:42 – Nuclear energy – is it a viable solution?
46:51 – The outlook for gold
52:51 – The mechanisms of the capital cycles
01:00:45 – The state of metals
01:04:18 – A metal crisis?
01:06:24 – Centralised commodities and rare earths
01:09:53 – Investing in rare earths
01:12:52 – Considerations for owning gold
01:16:58 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 – The big macro picture
04:37 – Inflation from a historical perspective
14:22 – Cycles and trends – how are they different?
18:23 – A sticky situation
21:53 – A wealth of trades?
26:58 – A secular reality
29:17 – The banking situation
35:16 – A build-up effect
38:58 – Buying Puts – A way to lose money?
41:02 – Cyclical vs Secular effects
46:38 – Inflationary pressure in Japan
54:45 – De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage
01:08:14 – The advantage of commodities
01:13:41 – Where is the world heading?
01:17:57 – Final thoughts

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:08 – The big picture macro view
08:27 – Fed selling Puts and Calls
12:54 – The lag effect
20:31 – The impact of change in demographics
29:49 – The state of the markets – Recession inbound?
38:47 – Sticky CPI – What is causing it?
46:12 – Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn?
49:41 – Are we looking at the right Asset Class?
52:26 – Is the equity rally about to end?
54:24 – The Unpinning of Volatility
57:40 – The coming Explosion of volatility
01:01:44 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:41 – Introduction to Rick Rule
04:16 – Financial experimentation and taking bets
16:35 – Commodities and the state of the economy
28:37 – Themes in resourcable markets
30:47 – Inflation – a political phenomenon?
38:57 – Are we seeing a change in ESGs?
44:26 – The pushback by the lower class
49:48 – Is owning gold becoming pointless?
56:14 – Central banks buying – a sign of demand?
01:00:40 – Finding convex ways to invest in gold
01:06:49 – Too much hype in the narrative?
01:11:57 – Being a contrarian
01:14:15 – Learn more about Rick and his work

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:19 – Introduction to Barry Eichengreen
08:17 – A potential misuse of history
11:26 – A lesson forgotten?
14:25 – Are things starting to break?
16:49 – A lesson learned
18:44 – Should we be concerned?
22:19 – Are crises inevitable?
24:32 – Is the dollar under threat?
30:10 – The need for safe assets
36:02 – The state of the Euro
39:39 – Making alliances
43:17 – A change in approach
45:18 – The “right” amount of debt
49:21 – A systemic problem
51:25 – Dealing with the debt burden
54:09 – Secular stagnation
55:48 – UK guilt yield levels
57:10 – Concerns for private sector debt
58:24 – Debt in the emerging world
01:00:45 – How and where to learn more?

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