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Global Macro

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Today, we welcome back Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, to help us understand the global energy crisis and how we ended up in this situation. We discuss the outlook of the coming months and why we are in the beginning of a commodity super cycle, how the supply and demand side of the economy functions and what role the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plays in a global energy crisis. We also discuss the different types of energy commodities, how convergence will affect the energy market and how to take advantage of it, the history of energy and the importance of ensuring a continuous abundance of efficient energy, how nuclear power can be a viable solution to the energy crisis and much more.

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:01 – Heading into the winter
10:42 – Flood the market with oil…a good idea?
14:50 – Understanding the supply side
29:30 – Venezuela – A hot spot?
33:21 – Is the SPR in trouble?
40:12 – The role of the different energy commodities
42:51 – Why convergence and how to take advantage of it
51:56 – The end of energy abundance
59:57 – Is nuclear the future?
01:05:18 – Thanks for listening

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Today, we are joined by Michael Howell, Author and Managing Director of Crossborder Capital, for a conversation on how liquidity drives financial markets, based on his book, “Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity”. We address term premia and the impact it has on the economy, the off-shore market, how Central Banks have become the dominant players over the last decade and the capital war between China and the U.S. We also discuss what might happen if the global economy becomes divided into two worlds, where one is financed by the U.S. dollar and the other financed by the Chinese Yuan and the increasing networking risk and risk of crises within the financial system, the different types of liquidity and the recipe for creating a strong dollar and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Michael on LinkedIn and read his book.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:51 – Introduction to Michael Howell and his work
07:38 – How much debt is there globally?
14:08 – Why is longer-term treasuries desirable?
16:08 – The off-shore market 
19:56 – The capital war between China and the U.S.
41:37 – Is the financial system more fragile than we think?
50:10 – What if the 10-year bond yield blows out rapidly?
53:59 – What has happened with the offshore short-term market?
59:55 – The currency space and relative liquidity
01:02:31 – Comments on the current regime
01:08:18 – Key takeaways from Niels

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Today, we reflect on previous conversations with guests on the Global Macro series and how they have developed us as investors. We also discuss the historical framework of the Fed and their role and power in the economy, how 40 years of monetary policy and technological revolution have caused historic inequality and how recessions have been handled throughout history. Additionally, we address the consequences of ultra low interest rates and high inflation and why we might see a loss of credibility in the Fed going forward, the importance of finding an edge in your investment strategy. Lastly, we discuss the strength of the dollar, how investors should position themselves in the wake of a Fourth Turning and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:54 – Looking back on previous guests and how they have impacted our thinking
09:17 – Thoughts on the Fed and a historical perspective
21:11 – How much power and control does the Fed actually have?
31:02 – Low interest rates… a bubble maker?
40:03 – The inverted yield curve…a sign?
49:26 – Using volatility as a guide for equity markets
59:14 – What happens to the dollar?
01:04:13 – What should investors be considering at this point?
01:12:24 – Thanks for listening

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Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the past about inflation and advice for trading in an inflationary regime. Additionally, Darius explains how he and 42macro consider external factors, such as demographics and structural changes when trading and analyzing the markets and he describes the financial and political impact of approaching a new Fourth Turning. Lastly, we discuss portfolio construction and risk management frameworks, why it is important to be humble and honest about the uncertainty and unpredictability of the current state of the markets and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Darius on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:15 – Who is Darius Dale?
06:48 – Darius’s strategic perspective
10:38 – What will happen to the inflation going forward?
20:28 – Looking at the next 6-12 months
26:18 – What about the longer term?
31:39 – The historical perspective
39:33 – What Darius is telling investors right now
48:22 – Dealing with external factors
58:36 – Factor correlation and clustering
01:02:07 – Are portfolio construction models outdated?
01:10:30 – Thanks for listening

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Nathaniel Whittemore, aka NLW, creator and host on The Breakdown podcast, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the big power shifts and social changes that are taking place in the world right now, the limits of Central Banks to handle inflation, the future of Crypto and how it impacts the social dynamics of society. We also discuss the dark sides of Bitcoin, regulation of the Crypto space and its potential pitfalls and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Nathaniel on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:05 – How Nathaniel ended up creating The Breakdown
05:30 – Big power shifts taking place right now
08:22 – Is the FED losing control?
18:38 – The future of crypto
38:19 – The dark sides of Bitcoin
01:02:23 – A Bitcoin liquidation…could it happen?
01:07:13 – Regulating crypto…the pros and the cons
01:25:04 – Final thoughts

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In today’s episode, Peter Atwater, author and adjunct professor of Economics at William & Mary, joins us to discuss socionomics and why media is a great mirror of mood, how confidence in Central Banks relates to the level of interest rates, “stacked vulnerability” and how it runs the potential of creating exhaustion, inequality and the battle between the top and the bottom of society. We also discuss how the current inflation creates false expectations and why we might see a violent move in market prices, how deglobalization is a consequence of a change in social mood, ways to implement a more confidence driven decision making investment strategy and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:05 – Peter’s background
05:36 – Why socionomics is important to understand and follow
14:27 – How to determine Confidence in Central Banks
17:26 – Accumulated exhaustion, and what this means
25:35 – Crypto – a betrayal?
37:55 – Expected and Un-Expected Inflation – a sign of Scarcity
46:01 – A potential Massive Market Cycle Top?
51:33 – Heading towards deglobalization
01:02:54 – Global Fragmentation
01:12:24 – Confident decision making
01:16:21 – Thanks for listening

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In today’s episode, the dynamic duo Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf and Andreas Steno Larsen, join us to discuss all things Macro…from Central Banks and the reasons for the rising inflation, populism and how monetary policy has created inequality. We also get around demographics and how the shrinking labour force poses a threat to the economy, ESG and the impact it has on inflation, how a generational shift in politics can cause a taxation of the boomers, the 4th Turning and key mistakes to avoid as an investor and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Andreas on Twitter.

Follow Alfonso on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:15 – Setting the stage for our conversation
07:26 – Current Macro outlook…and how its evolved in recent months
13:47 – Populism & potential for Deflation
28:51 – Demographics & Labour force
53:05 – Central Bank policies
01:03:58 – Key mistakes to avoid
01:10:09 – Wrapping up

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Today, Grant Williams, creator of The Grant Williams Podcast, joins us to discuss the direction that the world is heading from a global macro perspective, the role of the Federal Reserve and how it has corrupted the price of money. We also touch on how the loss of faith in institutions is a key feature of the Fourth Turning, how inflation impacts inequality and how confidence in the Federal Reserve correlates with the level of interest rates, crypto currencies and the underlying problems of the technology, Central Banking 2.0 and what happens if a Central Bank buys all the bonds in a market, real estate and the potential dangers of the housing sector, the commodity super cycle and how it causes rising interest rates, and the fate and fortune of Elon Musk plus much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Grant on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
04:19 – Grant’s background
05:54 – The big global macro picture
16:08 – The role of the Federal Reserve today
25:16 – Inflation…the great equalizer or not
36:09 – Crypto and not so stable coins
44:06 – Central Banking 2.0
58:43 – The danger signs in Real estate
01:06:58 – The commodity super cycle
01:13:41 – Elon Musk…from Showman to Charlatan
01:19:04 – Thanks for listening

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Joseph Wang, former senior FED trader & known as the “Fed Guy”, joins us to discuss the credibility of the FOMC and what drives the neutral rate, Central Bank policies and the consequences of increased divergence, monetary policies and reducing liquidity to address the problems of inflation, de-globalization and how labour is no longer connected to corporate wellness, how the FED and other Central Banks have focused on the wrong things for the last few decades, exorbitant privilege and whether the FED is starting to lose control, safe assets and ways to preserve capital, cryptocurrencies, strength of the Dollar and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Joseph on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:13 – Joseph’s background
06:34 – Shocking FED Announcement
10:52 – Central Bank policies
14:11 – Monetary policies and liquidity
30:40 – FED paper suggesting they don't know where inflation comes from
40:03 – The wider consequences
45:45 – FED losing control?
53:55 – Safe assets and crypto
01:05:01 – What keeps Joseph up at night?
01:09:52 – Thanks for listening

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Pippa Malmgren, former White House Adviser, technology entrepreneur and economist, joins us in today’s episode to discuss warfare in space and the space race between the super powers and the push to declassify UFO related information, how Pippa stays optimistic in a world of conflict and how the instability threatens Western democracy. We also discuss what we now know about COVID & the Vaccines and how this relates to the FED, how money printing has created a situation of both artificial calm and social unrest, whether China plans to invade Taiwan and what China has learned from the invasion of Ukraine, how the demographics of China and Russia can inhibit their power of action, how the lack of nuance contaminates the public debate and divides the population, the future of democracy and decline of autocracy, innovation and the jobs of tomorrow and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Pippa on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
05:26 – Out-sourcing & Off balance sheet government activities
08:05 – Space warfare
15:00 – Optimism in an unstable world
20:00 – The Future of Western democracy
25:10 – Money printing and its consequences
27:55 – The Baltics and separating Germany from the Alliance
33:52 – The prospects of China invading Taiwan
46:40 – What we now know about COVID & the Risk of the FED making a huge mistake
57:16 – Democracy in decline?
01:11:14 – The jobs of tomorrow
01:19:10 – Thanks for listening

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Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins us in today’s episode to discuss ESG policies, the emerging energy crisis, and the new battle between the Climate-Green and the Nature-Green. We also dive into how the energy sector has evolved over time and the dark sides of renewable energy, why Moore’s Law does not apply to wind and solar energy, how cheap energy leads to distortion and malinvestment of energy, how the argument of human extinction skews the energy debate, nuclear energy and how it might be a solution to the climate crisis, how de-globalization has made the energy sector more vulnerable and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on LinkedIn.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
05:12 – Adam’s background & the history of Energy
13:58 – The Dark side of Renewable energy
29:11 – Moore’s Law
36:54 – Malinvestment and creative destruction
44:33 – The renewable energy debate
52:34 – Nuclear energy
01:04:54 – De-globalization and its consequences
01:09:42 – Link between energy prices and GDP
01:13:00 – Rounding off

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Today, Cem and I are joined by Izabella Kaminska, former Editor of Financial Times Alphaville and Founder of The Blind Spot, to discuss the war of information and mis-information, the aftermath of Covid 19, how the media contributes to a segmentation of society, the group-think phenomenon, how shifts in culture has an impact on economics and how the war between Russia and Ukraine affects the global economy. We also discuss the power balance between the Western and the Russian economy, the dollar standard and the factors that contribute to undermine the dollar, isolationism and what de-globalization will look like, the energy crisis and how ESG is becoming increasingly important and perhaps leading to the rise of nuclear technology and much more.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Izabella on Twitter.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
02:45 – About Izabella and her journey
06:27 – Autocracy vs. Democracy
15:50 – Covid19…the aftermaths
22:00 – Media Segmentation Theory
31:34 – 2022 Economics
49:50 – Western vs. Russian economy
56:31 – Shift in commodities
01:07:25 – Deglobalization
01:18:55 – Nuclear technology
01:24:41 – Prepping for the worst
01:28:34 – Rounding off

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