TTU Trend Barometer
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Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 – Introduction to Adam Posen
05:45 – Was it all about luck?
07:40 – Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?
12:06 – Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?
13:56 – The political pressure on central banks
16:48 – The challenges of inflation targeting
23:47 – A micro-managing nightmare?
29:50 – What are the most important factors for policy makers?
35:16 – The lags of monetary policy
39:47 – How the structure of the economy impacts the monetary transmission mechanism
48:15 – Posen's view on the economy
51:07 – Are central banks inflating the debt away?
53:49 – A Fiscal crisis incoming?
01:00:10 – Artificial Intelligence – a game changer?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 – Introduction to Claudia Sahm
04:26 – The background behind the Sahm Rule
08:34 – Does the current data call for a recession?
12:37 – Putting the data together
18:16 – Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?
23:51 – What can we rely on as investors?
29:48 – What is unusual about this inflation cycle?
35:32 – The balance of the dual mandate
40:42 – The state of physical policy
45:32 – The growth picture from a long term perspective
50:32 – The positive sides of inflation
53:17 – Book recommendations and advice for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:49 – Introduction to Robert Spalding
03:38 – What did General Spalding learn from flying B-2 airplanes?
08:44 – Who is Spalding's criticism aimed towards?
10:33 – A visionary perspective
15:37 – TikTok – The ultimate weapon?
21:37 – Is the West as “bad” as China?
30:49 – How do the West compete on a level playing field against autocracy?
42:28 – Spalding's view on the conflict between China and Taiwan
54:29 – How hot can a cold war get?
58:31 – Is there no way back?
01:00:51 – The vulnerability of infrastructure and data

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:42 – What Bob learnt from working close to Ray Dalio?
04:24 – The secret to Bridgewaters success
07:17 – Elliott's perspective on the current global macro framework
10:46 – The outlook for interest rates
15:31 – Is inflation here to stay?
20:48 – The outlook for asset allocation
25:48 – The role of demographics
30:04 – A collective memory
32:53 – Advice for achieving a balanced and diversified portfolio
36:37 – Elliott's approach to diversification
42:22 – How to get access to alternative markets
46:24 – What drove Elliott intro replication?
51:45 – Why the majority of investors are invested in the wrong way
57:15 – The state of the global exchange rate markets
01:00:44 – Are US stocks trading as Cem exptected into the June Opex?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 – Introduction to Garry Gerstle
05:50 – Understanding political order and neoliberalism
12:04 – How important are the economic principles in dismantling the neoliberal order?
20:06 – What will drive the new political order?
29:01 – How the West's approach to China has changed
36:19 – Do banks have too much power?
43:34 – Is the U.S deficit a constraint going forward?
47:24 – The 4 freedoms of neoliberalism
53:34 – The challenges of the technological evolution
01:02:16 – Thoughts on how the election might end up

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:39 – Christian's current big picture macro framework
07:22 – The role of volatility in inflation
12:20 – Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?
21:02 – What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?
27:37 – A scary situation in Europe?
32:16 – How election periods affect the economy
40:22 – A wall of worry
43:30 – Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce volatility
48:03 – A push-pull effect
51:41 – Is trend following the solution?
54:39 – The optimal portfolio in 2024
01:01:04 – A time of opportunity?
01:03:49 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 – Marko's current macro framework
07:20 – Moving towards a multi-polar world
14:43 – How is now different from back in the days?
23:36 – Trump landing the deglobalization plane
31:48 – The election – a macro black hole
36:47 – The new world from a non-US perspective
44:18 – What happens with Ukraine?*
49:50 – An increased risk for bigger global conflicts?
56:15 – Creating strong relationships
01:02:50 – Will China invade Taiwan in the next 5 years?
01:05:30 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 – Introduction to Tor Svelland
06:18 – How have commodity markets evolved?
09:19 – More opportunities in commodity markets?
11:32 – Why Tor started his own firm
14:15 – Tor's outlook for the commodity markets
17:10 – What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?
20:09 – Are we in a super cycle?
22:55 – Translating trends into trades
24:47 – Which markets will benefit from the energy transition?
26:55 – A slow transition
31:14 – The temperature of the global economy
35:21 – Where will we see signs of recession?
39:13 – Is disinflation a major trend?
41:14 – How extreme can it get?
42:42 – How will Europe meet its energy demands going forward??
45:13 – How the defense spending will impact markets
47:07 – Taking advantage of the spikes in markets
51:06 – How volatility sellers affect markets
52:56 – Additional observations in the commodity markets
55:18 – Putting it all together
56:52 – Why has gold miners been so slow?
58:27 – Private capital taking over?
59:20 – Advice for other investors
01:00:30 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:31 – Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff
05:21 – Are we heading back to “normal”?
11:17 – Will China become an inflationary force?
14:30 – Is China still investable?
17:05 – A Chinese confidence crisis
18:45 – The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective
23:13 – What is going on in the oil market?
25:45 – What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?
27:57 – The move towards nuclear energy
29:55 – U.S vs. Europe vs. China
33:12 – How to position for the next 20 years
35:12 – Why is Sokoloff a fan of gold?
39:13 – A move away from the dollar
44:50 – Understanding the gold market
49:05 – How will AI impact the economy?
51:30 – India – the next China?
53:34 – How will the decarbonization evolve?
55:38 – Sokoloff's favorite contrarian calls
57:50 – Sokoloff's process for generation ideas
59:24 – Advice for other investors
02:02:03 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:39 – Introduction to Frances Donald
06:39 – What caused a pivot from the central banks?
13:10 – Why were they wrong about their forecast?
20:43 – Where are the weak spots?
23:58 – Does recession calls even matter?
27:34 – Frances' outlook for the economy
39:21 – Are we heading into a structural shift?
51:04 – Will things change in the next administration?
53:33 – Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?
59:35 – Advice for the other investors
01:01:15 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 – Looking back on our last conversation
07:55 – Are markets looking too good to be true?
14:04 – The importance of long volatility and owning convexity
24:41 – Why is volatility compression normalizing?
31:35 – A system under pressure
38:48 – How is now different to the 1970's?
42:09 – Can deglobalization be a good thing?
53:00 – Where is the debt problem going?
01:04:25 – Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin
01:09:08 – How Dredge is carrying out volatility selling

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 – Introduction to Gregory Peters
05:15 – What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?
06:28 – Peters' perspective on the state of global macro
11:44 – Peters' response to the inverted curve
15:30 – Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?
19:36 – Japanese investors in a tough spot
22:11 – Financial repression and domestic bias
24:11 – The yield is destiny
27:28 – What range are we operating in?
28:43 – Will inflation be stickier than we expect?
33:03 – The impact of a changing globalization
35:42 – Analyzing the poor productivity numbers
38:05 – The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy
42:54 – China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio
44:27 – Opportunities in emerging markets
46:47 – Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function
49:13 – How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?
51:29 – The possibilities of recession
56:19 – Advice for other investors
57:59 – Thanks for listening