TTU Trend Barometer
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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

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Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 – The big macro picture
04:37 – Inflation from a historical perspective
14:22 – Cycles and trends – how are they different?
18:23 – A sticky situation
21:53 – A wealth of trades?
26:58 – A secular reality
29:17 – The banking situation
35:16 – A build-up effect
38:58 – Buying Puts – A way to lose money?
41:02 – Cyclical vs Secular effects
46:38 – Inflationary pressure in Japan
54:45 – De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage
01:08:14 – The advantage of commodities
01:13:41 – Where is the world heading?
01:17:57 – Final thoughts

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:08 – The big picture macro view
08:27 – Fed selling Puts and Calls
12:54 – The lag effect
20:31 – The impact of change in demographics
29:49 – The state of the markets – Recession inbound?
38:47 – Sticky CPI – What is causing it?
46:12 – Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn?
49:41 – Are we looking at the right Asset Class?
52:26 – Is the equity rally about to end?
54:24 – The Unpinning of Volatility
57:40 – The coming Explosion of volatility
01:01:44 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:41 – Introduction to Rick Rule
04:16 – Financial experimentation and taking bets
16:35 – Commodities and the state of the economy
28:37 – Themes in resourcable markets
30:47 – Inflation – a political phenomenon?
38:57 – Are we seeing a change in ESGs?
44:26 – The pushback by the lower class
49:48 – Is owning gold becoming pointless?
56:14 – Central banks buying – a sign of demand?
01:00:40 – Finding convex ways to invest in gold
01:06:49 – Too much hype in the narrative?
01:11:57 – Being a contrarian
01:14:15 – Learn more about Rick and his work

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:19 – Introduction to Barry Eichengreen
08:17 – A potential misuse of history
11:26 – A lesson forgotten?
14:25 – Are things starting to break?
16:49 – A lesson learned
18:44 – Should we be concerned?
22:19 – Are crises inevitable?
24:32 – Is the dollar under threat?
30:10 – The need for safe assets
36:02 – The state of the Euro
39:39 – Making alliances
43:17 – A change in approach
45:18 – The “right” amount of debt
49:21 – A systemic problem
51:25 – Dealing with the debt burden
54:09 – Secular stagnation
55:48 – UK guilt yield levels
57:10 – Concerns for private sector debt
58:24 – Debt in the emerging world
01:00:45 – How and where to learn more?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:19 – SPR – What and why?
06:27 – Why crude and not refined products?
09:34 – How is the SPR used?
13:54 – Trading oil
19:54 – The goal of the SPR market
23:04 – How inventory drives oil price
28:29 – The effect of inventory restocking
29:43 – Theory vs. practice
33:28 – The mega energy companies
36:00 – Distortion in oil markets
41:20 – Can volatility be profitable?
47:35 – No specs = steeper or flatter?
50:11 – Advice on using the data
52:37 – Understanding signals in the oil market
59:17 – Dollar Wrecking Barrell
01:01:44 – Oil vs. gold and gas
01:09:07 – What makes money in high vol regimes?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:36 – Introduction to David
05:43 – A touchy subject
12:48 – The Tic Tac incident
19:37 – The Navy ships incident
24:17 – What is Area 51?
27:03 – What happened in Mosul, Iraq?
28:29 – The New York Times article
30:41 – Who is Bob Lazar and why is he important?
34:40 – Connections in the UFO network
38:40 – Alfred O'Donnell & EE&G
41:50 – Are they saving us from ourselves?
43:20 – From rockstar to UFO researcher
48:47 – The importance of Jay Stratton
51:58 – Whistleblower protection laws
55:04 – The Wilson Davis memo
57:18 – What about other parts of the world?
01:02:11 – What's up with the balloons
01:04:25 – Why is this happening now?
01:09:35 – The best piece of evidence?
01:11:57 – What are being impacted?
01:16:58 – What keeps David up at night?
01:19:03 – Why not?
01:21:10 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:46 – Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science
09:42 – The major players in the energy markets
12:56 – Speculative vs. commercial
18:43 – Forecasting the flow
25:02 – What has caused spikes in nat gas?
27:15 – Financial flows in commodity markets
30:22 – Risk considerations
32:14 – The relationship between fundamentals and price action
34:28 – Measuring demand
36:09 – The findings from Ferguson's research
39:46 – Oil on water supply vs land supply
41:33 – The impact of the dollar changes
45:33 – Measuring expectations
48:00 – The state and future of Ferguson's business
53:49 – Key takeaways from Niels

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 – Introduction to Shapiro & Hirst
09:22 – Where lies the uncertainty?
11:01 – The ultimate impact on markets
15:32 – Reflecting on Peter Zeihan's work
25:17 – Can we rely on Chinese data?
34:34 – The problems with Chinese real-estate
36:56 – Xi Jinpings geopolitical ambitions
40:35 – Can China still influence global growth?
46:51 – The relationship between Russia and China
48:50 – Are we heading towards deglobalization?
54:19 – A disruption in global commodities
01:04:49 – A bad outlook for equities?*
01:07:57 – Are we forgetting Latin America?*
01:10:08 – A shift in equities?
01:12:18 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:31 – Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context
07:15 – Are people over-fixated on data?
09:04 – Is Geopolitical analysis useless?
16:43 – Making assumptions
19:38 – The challenges with data
28:36 – Indicators of volatility
32:26 – Quantifying the fundamental value
37:02 – Having an edge in oil
45:27 – Understanding the CRT Report
49:17 – Oil price – a play on the dollar?
52:27 – An indicator for the state of the world
57:06 – How are oil and natural gas related?
01:00:58 – Fertilizer's impact on natural gas
01:02:43 – The research perspective
01:04:32 – Key takeaways from Niels

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:35 – Introduction to Jeff Currie
04:18 – A new kind of inflation?
08:41 – Policy and what drives inflation
15:41 – The outlook for the demand side
22:45 – Short term position and the commodity space
28:11: – Disruptions in infrastructure
31:17 – The rise of OPEC
33:32 – Status on the strategic oil reserve
34:20 – Volatility in oil
39:45 – Are we running out of metal?
44:12 – The situation with gas
48:15 – What is the solution?
50:12 – Problems with agriculture
53:54 – Dealing with global warming
59:44 – Profiting from the commodity super cycle
01:01:54 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:00 – About Dave and his work
06:04 – Are big pension funds failing?
11:21 – A fragile world
19:54 – How Dave thinks about liquidity
25:20 – What does cheap actually mean?
34:23 – What might be next for volatility
41:43 – The next Korean ship builder?
46:19 – Is forecasting pointless?
51:00 – Improve your convexity = improve your life
59:37 – What is cheap today?
01:13:14 – Time for some outrageous predictions
01:18:49 – Thanks for listening

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro
03:07 – The state of agriculture
10:10 – How Sunspots are affecting the earth?
15:22 – What drives the climate?
19:00 – Why are the winds over the Pacific so significant?
21:18 – The World is moving into a new phase
27:39 – Predicting the weather?
36:10 – Positioning risk and classification
44:56 – The impact of currencies
49:08 – Weather Volatility – good or bad?
50:41 – Assisting the farmers
55:15 – Investing in agriculture
01:01:36 – Great Summary from Hackett
01:08:33 – Key takeaways from Niels

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