TTU Trend Barometer
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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

03:21 – Introduction to Demetri Kofinas
04:39 – The era of financial nihilism
11:44 – The birth of a radical optimism?
20:10 – The risk of not heeding the call
26:16 – The dark side of smoothing the business cycle
29:14 – What have we lost in the vacuum of consequence?
33:39 – The collapse of the social contract
38:25 – The importance of a unified narrative
47:16 – Technology – a driver of unity or disunity?
50:05 – The role of government in libertarianism
53:12 – How far are we from a fourth turning?
56:25 – Crisis is a perception relative to where you are

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:32 – A big picture framework – what has changed since our last conversation?
09:32 – Why are commodities so cheap today?
17:03 – Why is now the moment to go long?
31:04 – We are in a huge carry trade
47:04 – Commodities are taking over another role
51:15 – Where are the greatest opportunities in rare metals?
58:40 – It will end badly for millennials
01:04:09 – Conspiracy theories in the gold industry
01:06:55 – The outlook for the U.S energy market
01:14:02 – Europe is in a difficult energy spot

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:34 – A quick catch up since last conversation
02:13 – Dredge's key takeaways from 2024
08:58 – When did things really start to move for Dredge?
15:41 – Cem's analysis of the recent global macro environment
22:51 – What has driven the S&P volatility?
24:44 – Positioning is all that matters
29:31 – “Correlation is a bitch”
33:31 – Portfolio Manager in legal trouble for following an ESG strategy
37:57 – The difference between credit and vol investors
42:07 – The good outcome is a recession
45:36 – All the things that you are not worried about is driving your performance
48:49 – The state of interest rates and FX trading
57:24 – Is the Fed losing its grip on the economy?
01:03:46 – The outlook of markets – where are we heading?
01:09:18 – Risk is on your balance sheet, not in the future
01:16:14 – Dredge's perspective on structural products issuance
01:27:22 – The recession might come sooner than we think

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 – (Re)Introduction to Ed Yardeni
04:51 – How the incoming U.S. administration will impact the economy
07:55 – Has Trump fought back the bond vigilantes?
10:52 – Was the Fed cut unnecessary?
13:20 – Strange decisions from the Fed
16:14 – Will the Fed be true to their words?
17:57 – Will inflation become sticky?
19:29 – Yardeni's perspective on the neutral rate
22:27 – The roaring 20's scenario
25:46 – What is fuelling the productivity?
30:12 – The data behind productivity
31:58 – Is the U.S industrial advantage part of the productivity story?
33:20 – What can we learn from 80s and 90's productivity boom?
36:42 – How is international policy playing out in the U.S?
40:40 – Yardeni's outlook for the stock market
43:43 – Is a recession unavoidable?
45:40 – What happens to the economy when we enter a recession?
48:27 – Yardeni's perspective on bitcoin
52:19 – Why play with gold when you have crypto?
54:10 – Don't mess with the bond vigilantes
57:42 – Where can you following Yardeni's work?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:28 – Introduction to Paul Donovan
06:02 – The state of the European economy
09:19 – The notion of fairness is changing
13:55 – Can a new economic model emerge?
18:54 – Has Europe become Japanified?
22:21 – Should Europe worry about lacking behind on tech?
29:04 – An economic plague in the UK
34:02 – How can economists address the happiness of the people
38:15 – What have the cost of things stayed high?
44:32 – The potential for supply side economic
49:48 – Why tarifs are inflationary
52:21 – How bad can the tarifs war get?
56:18 – How tarifs could impact interest rates
59:00 – How will the rest of the decade look in terms of growth and inflation?
01:01:30 – Advice for other economists

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 – Introduction to Keith McCullough
05:01 – From hedge fund to research
07:29 – Being a retail investor is an insult
09:56 – How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options
13:48 – Have stocks become more macro driven?
15:54 – Where are we currently in the 4 quads?
19:22 – The challenge of lag in macro signals
21:26 – McCullough's framework for monitoring signals
24:25 – When can herding be a distraction?
26:54 – The current market from a quad perspective
31:09 – Reassessing the narrative of the deficits
35:50 – The outlook of the dollar
38:16 – The (un?)importance of valuations
41:07 – How the state of China influences McCulloughs model and framework
43:15 – Getting on the right side of the K
45:12 – The market from the 3 pots perspective
48:33 – Developing a respect for the markets
52:07 – McCullough's advice for preserving your wealth
56:01 – McCullough's philosophy to investing
58:33 – McCullough's perspective on systematic trend following
59:50 – Advice for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:25 – Introduction to Steve Miran
05:53 – Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?
10:24 – How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work
15:26 – Treasury is not a market timer
17:39 – Getting lost in the Fed jargon
21:06 – What is driving the increasing yields?
24:38 – The refunding – Miran's expectations
27:26 – The state of the labour market
32:48 – How is Fed handling the economy at the moment?
34:21 – What is plausible range for the neutral rate?
37:07 – Is there a better way to run policy?
40:42 – The economic impact of the election outcome
45:54 – The challenges of regulatory policy
48:57 – Who will be the Treasury Secretary?
50:14 – Will a win for Trump mean bigger concerns for the deficits?
53:49 – The outlook for fixed income
56:07 – Geopolitical concerns
57:37 – Advice for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 – Introduction to Jason Furman
04:28 – The state of the economy
04:42 – Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
06:01 – Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
09:40 – The outlook for inflation
12:34 – A move in the right direction?
14:34 – Is the neutral rate a useful concept?
17:35 – The risk of being too sensitive to current data
21:05 – Is the shift towards transparency actually positive?
22:28 – Is the economy too complicated to forecast?
23:44 – Is the era of ultra low rates behind us?
26:46 – Furman's thoughts on the U.S deficits
28:29 – Has the Treasury managed the situation right?
31:34 – Will the political environment change due to larger acceptance to deficits?
34:46 – Will Powell and Trump be able to communicate?
36:32 – A win for Trump = the end of the Fed?
37:57 – Is the Fed in danger?
39:24 – Will the increasing debt levels cause quantitative easing?
40:54 – Productivity – reasons to be optimistic?
43:57 – Is AI a threat to employment?
45:25 – Furman's perspective on the industrial policy
49:33 – Are we going too far in the wrong direction?
51:06 – China's influence on the global economy
54:05 – The outlook of economical growth
55:38 – Is Europe in trouble?
57:12 – Advice for other investors

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:27 – Introduction to Louis Gave
03:50 – Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?
09:20 – Can China restore their foreign capital flow?
13:40 – The state of Chinese fiscal policy
19:12 – A flash point in Chinese overcapacity
24:14 – A commodity catalyst – reflation incoming?
28:46 – Will the U.S experience a recession soon?
36:48 – A fiscal crisis in the U.S?
40:32 – The economic challenges that France faces
43:09 – The state of the European economy
47:20 – Welfare states are falling apart
49:48 – The U.S. election – how will it impact investors?
54:00 – How Trump would handle the current global conflicts
56:59 – Trump interfering with the Fed
59:26 – A weak dollar = pressure on bonds?
01:00:05 – Still bullish on emerging markets?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:02 – How carry trading has evolved since “The Rise of Carry” was published
06:04 – How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis
09:12 – Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?
17:02 – Was SVB a lucky escape?
23:15 – S&P 500 – the essence of a carry trade?
30:16 – Short-term moves are being exacerbated
32:30 – VIX inversions and structural changes
34:23 – What are the characteristics of a carry trade?
37:58 – A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?
45:09 – How could you make money from a carry unwind?
49:13 – Will we ever get away from the Fed Put?
53:47 – A new way of treating the S&P 500
56:33 – How the carry regime impacts the economy
59:15 – The impact of geopolitics on carry

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 – Catching up
05:00 – What has happened since we last spoke?
12:58 – The state of the metal sector
22:06 – Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading
28:41 – Getting the timing right
42:51 – It's all about volatility
44:38 – Playing the long game
47:46 – Are investors positioning wrong?
52:40 – A carry trade bubble
54:29 – Why are many investors bullish on copper?
01:01:12 – Why are copper prices going down?
01:05:13 – Demographics – a bizarre kind of beast
01:08:40 – An over-demand of assets in China?
01:12:54 – Thoughts on the recent decline in oil
01:15:44 – What is the current level of the U.S strategic reserve?