Global Macro

The number of people moving from Chinese Suburbs, urbanization if you will, a massive, massive secular trend, was coming to an end… You pile the trade war into this preexisting dynamic, in 2019, and you end up with the global economy headed for recession. At the same time, you had leverage, of course, in a very, very bad place.

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Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke were fighting, and fighting, and fighting for this two percent target for years but it wasn’t until Alan Greenspan left the Fed that they were able to actually implement it.

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The Fed is doing a lot for the top 1%. The Fed is helping private equity not get buried in some very bad investments that they have made. They’re helping the wealthy stay wealthier.

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The one thing that I will give J. Powell credit for is holding the line on negative interest rates. It’s clear from listening to everybody on the committee and every district president that there is unity and a cohesive solid front against negative interest rates.

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At the end of the day, so the dollar ripped 82 to 104 and that moved crushed middle American jobs and really, I think it partially cost Hillary Clinton the election… I think the Trump camp has learned that you really can't have a runaway dollar heading towards an election. You really want that dollar down and that will help whatever is left of middle America.

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The inflation camp, every one of them is pegging it on twelve to eighteen months from now. Whereas, the deflation camp is pretty high conviction that we're going to have a problem near-term.

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I just don't think that the White House really wants to have a problem with China in the last two, three months before the election.

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Tesla is at close to three hundred (billion), so Tesla would come in at anywhere between twelve and ten in terms of the S&P 500. So it would come in, basically, in the top twelve companies which has never happened before.

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Most of that money that was conjured out of thin air by central banks didn't go to Main Street to provide more money in the pocket of the average consumer, it went to put more money in the pocket of the average investment banker to buy more assets.

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If you are China and Russia, first of all, you don't care about votes because you rule through fear and intimidation, not through democracy. What you care about is shifting power from the west back to the east.

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The current system, which is more cronyism than capitalism, the people of the world are pissed off. They're sick of it. I think that what we'll see over the next ten years is a major change.

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I think that we'll eventually see the emergence of a digital currency that really gives the U.S. dollar a run for its money for the title of Global Reserve Currency. That's going to be what changes the Fed's ability to get away with what it has been doing.

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I operate off this really fundamental thesis of manipulation: anytime somebody steps into a freely functioning system, like nature, for example, when man steps into nature and they start manipulating that, there is always a consequence of some sort that has to balance that manipulation out.

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To be quite honest with you I don't know how anything is going to outperform bitcoin based on my opinions of how I think it's going to perform in the coming year and a half. I don't know how anything can outperform that simply because the market cap is so low.

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The fixed income market is completely manipulated.

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Every single thing on the planet has to be sold in order to come up with dollars to adjudicate the differences of the trades and the differences of opinions and the impairment that happened on the balance sheets.

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The U.S. just hit post Second World War highs (for unemployment), and if you don’t, post Great Depression highs. The point is that we are starting in an economic hole which is, arguably, much, much deeper than many of our peers. And that is in virtue of the fact that we have a super flexible labor market.

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As the economy starts to recover, that’s when we will come out with old fashioned QE.” I’m like, “Jesus, what’s that? Is that another 80 billion a month, trillion a year?” And the answer is, “Almost certainly.

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(That) is the day that you are presented with the option of handing your bitcoin over in the same way that you did with gold in the ‘30s or trying to keep hold of it and if you’re caught ending up in a big dark hole with a bloke called Bubba who calls you Shirley.

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There was this little bloke called Martin Luther who hung around as all the Catholic priests fled out to their country properties when we had the black death, who stayed and helped. Guess what? That was the cycle high of Catholicism. That was a relatively big turning point in History. Pandemics kind of do that.

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