TTU Trend Barometer
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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged
01:24 – Introducing Doug King and his background
04:49 – From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities
07:05 – Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven
09:50 – Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades
10:45 – Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity
13:46 – Electrification and where long term excitement may lie
15:37 – Defining edge in commodities trading
18:12 – Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals
20:23 – Concentration, themes, and risk limits
22:34 – Risk budgets, drawdowns, and volatility control
26:35 – Margin stress, squeezes, and market dysfunction
30:43 – Defining trades in oil and nickel
35:54 – Linking physical trading to hedge fund insight
43:00 – Discipline, noise, and surviving as a commodity trader

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Read more about David.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 – Introduction to part 2
02:57 – Anecdotes from Druz' time working with Ed Seykota
06:46 – The best trader the world has ever seen
17:13 – The optimal bed size
21:24 – What Druz learned from working with Seykota
24:42 – Key lessons for managing drawdowns
26:54 – How does one gets to become an apprentice of Ed Seykota
31:58 – Living with Ed Seykota
34:16 – Seykota's 10.000 dollar cookie mania

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Read more about David.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:11 – Introduction to Dave Druz
13:50 – Druz' time in the Commodities Corporation
19:14 – How did Druz discover trend following?
23:57 – The core philosophy behind Druz' trend following strategy
28:08 – Who wins and loses in the markets?
37:37 – Determining hedging flows in commodity markets
41:03 – Managing money in trend following
43:40 – How does Druz size a position and get out of it?
45:16 – Coping with a high level of volatility
50:23 – Mitigate drawdown or take the ride?
55:20 – Put your affection on portfolio selection
58:19 – Mastering systems
59:50 – Druz' approach to market selection
01:08:33 – Sizing signals optimally
01:12:43 – A new way of running an investing business
01:19:24 – Creating a personalized portfolio with an edge
01:28:36 – Why Tactical is no longer a business

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 – Introduction to Mike Azlen
04:00 – What are Carbon Markets and how do they function?
13:32 – How Carbon Markets work in different countries
16:35 – The complexities of carbon offsets – viable or just a scam?
21:58 – Is Carbon Capture a viable solution to the climate crisis?
25:44 – Why is there a risk premium in compliance carbon markets?
29:31 – The difference between spot and physical permits
32:35 – Why is the funding premium so large in California?
33:49 – The investment philosophy behind Carbon Cap Management
36:56 – It's all in the EUAs
40:50 – The positive impact of Carbon Cap Management
45:39 – Wrapping up

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Read more about AG Capital.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 – Introduction to Asim Ghaffar and AG Capital
06:48 – What defines a great hedge fund?
12:13 – How do you find clients as a hedge fund?
18:32 – Creating world class in-house operations
25:32 – Ghaffar's framework for building portfolios
35:05 – How Ghaffar differs from a classical trend follower
39:16 – Why Ghaffar enforces a fixed number of positions
41:40 – What is so cool about stocks?
46:16 – Why Ghaffar sometimes decreases an exposure
51:36 – How Ghaffar approaches gold
54:05 – Why AG Capital stays away from Bitcoin
01:01:54 – Is China actually more democratic than the US?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:08 – Introduction to Corey Hoffstein & Adam Butler
09:06 – How Hoffstein and Butler see the trend following industry going forward
12:24 – The possibilities and constraints of trading ETFs
20:52 – The philosophy behind their trading strategy
27:26 – How they calibrate their model to accommodate markets changes
32:03 – How they incorporate replication in their strategy
35:50 – Their process behind capturing beta
46:42 – The benefits of adding a longer tail for markets
49:25 – How much volatility can trend followers tolerate?
54:23 – How they maintain balance in their trend following portfolio
57:37 – Implementing different types of return streams

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:08 – Introduction to Calculo Capital
03:53 – The state of today's commodity markets
10:35 – Commodity performance numbers
11:34 – What is driving the increased performance in the precious metal markets?
15:35 – How the commodity performance impacts the way Calculo Capital is trading
16:48 – Why do Calculo Capital only focus on commodity markets?
18:12 – What kind of commodities do they trade and why?
19:50 – What is a supply/demand imbalance and how do you spot it?
21:23 – It's all about price
24:49 – How they find the optimal trading position
28:57 – How they apply machine learning in their trading
32:16 – How they execute trades
33:48 – What has attracted Ole Hansen into investing in Calculo Capital?
39:51 – Why is Calculo Capital based in Denmark?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 – Introduction to Nickel Digital and how they found their way to crypto
08:10 – A trip down memory crypto lane
12:25 – Why is the basis still so wide on crypto?
15:07 – The state of alpha in the crypto space
18:23 – What kind of portfolio does Nickel Digital run?
19:56 – How they take advantage of automation to carry out a 24/7 365 trading strategy
22:24 – How they manage the managers
25:22 – How they approach netting cost
27:40 – Their process for paying managers
30:59 – Their manager onboarding process
38:41 – Why traders make more money at Nickel Digital than anywhere else
40:52 – What is the average sharpe ratio in the crypto space?
43:19 – The tech backbone – how Nickel Digital is connected to exchanges
46:08 – FTX collapse – The most stressful period for their business
49:46 – How they manage price and risk in 24 hours/day markets
54:06 – How crypto differ from regular markets
57:09 – The pitfalls of trading crypto
01:02:35 – What is their long term vision for Nickel Digital?

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:17 – Introduction to Bill Gebhardt
06:35 – No pain, no gain
08:40 – Why are they called 10Dynamics?
10:08 – What is their philosophy behind how markets work?
12:24 – Are the signals that they run based on trend following?
13:47 – How they handle the operational complexity of their system
18:15 – How they assess the validity of their data
20:39 – Exploring the technical details behind the execution of their system
22:39 – How they approach trading times
25:07 – Combining short and long term trading
26:52 – How they avoid overfitting and underfitting
30:58 – How Gebhardt implements his experience from the energy space
33:54 – How many markets do they trade?
35:50 – Accessing the domestic futures markets
36:56 – Why are single name equities so special to 10Dynamics?
41:08 – How they approach VIX futures
43:39 – Their perspective on replication strategies

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Learn more about J8 Capital.

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

16:16 – Introduction to Tillmann Sachs, Vishal Sharma and J8 Capital Management
04:06 – Why did they start J8 Capital?
05:09 – What got them interested in a systematic approach?
09:12 – The story behind the J8 Global Absolute Return Strategy
13:53 – Multiple different systems or one big system?
16:25 – Why don't they incorporate equities in their strategy?
21:36 – Managing risk in arbitrage strategies
24:44 – Their perspective on going long term VIX
26:34 – How you valuate risk when putting multiple systems together
29:59 – Is the best benchmark for them a multistrat hedge fund?
33:04 – How does Sharma's short term systematic system work?
37:58 – What is Redwood's correlation to the short term traders index?
38:17 – How Sharma is trading the markets
41:17 – How is Sharma's strategy performing?
44:28 – How Sharma runs and maintains a 24 hours a day process
46:36 – The future direction of J8 Capital

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 – Introduction to Jerome Callut
03:52 – Why they use non-trend following models
08:42 – What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model?
09:57 – The 3 categories of their trading system
11:11 – Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders
15:35 – An example of how they handle flow
18:35 – Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade?
21:51 – Exploiting the skid marks in the markets
23:53 – Category 2: Relative value and spread trading
29:37 – Collecting the roll down yield
31:12 – Is Callut also engaging in a short VIX positioning?
36:59 – Proactive and reactive management
38:33 – What could happen after Volmageddon?
40:42 – How they implement reactive management
41:37 – Category 3: Macro trades
46:37 – What role does automation play at DCM Systematic?
48:36 – How they implement AI and machine learning
53:38 – A work in progress
54:46 – Working with a moving target

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IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:30 – Introduction
03:59 – Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis
06:34 – Can trading be taught?
08:50 – The story behind the trading rules
12:32 – What characterises Eckhardt Trading?
13:44 – How did their perception of risk change over the years?
22:01 – Why they focus on short term trading
27:25 – How they use volatility in their trading
32:49 – Do they utilize other methods than trend following?
34:05 – Why do they avoid trade summary statistics?
40:26 – How they control overfitting and underfitting
45:37 – How they use “the gauntlet” to test systems
49:12 – How many markets do they trade and why?
53:57 – Why they don't trade single stocks
56:28 – Their view on replication strategies
01:05:23 – Evaluating the success of systems
01:08:02 – What are the most important things to avoid when designing trend following systems?
01:08:47 – The future of trend following
01:11:11 – Criticise ideas, not people