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Systematic Investor

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Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Andrew on X.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introducing the Systematic Investor series
01:17 – AI disruption and systematic investing
06:52 – The shifting perception of US risk
09:21 – Winter Olympics and market metaphors
12:59 – Hedge funds versus private equity
19:23 – 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation
22:17 – Why CTAs did not fully capture gold
29:48 – Short term versus long term trend models
35:27 – Letting risk run versus investor palatability
44:43 – The problem with liquid alternatives
51:21 – Product design versus fiduciary duty
59:06 – QIS, innovation and investor sophistication
01:04:41 – Model risk and the myth of risk premia
01:10:51 – Hopes for a trending year ahead

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Rob on LinkedIn.

Read Man Group's Paper.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
03:56 – Freaky Friday in precious metals
04:29 – How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework
10:25 – When volatility forces position reduction
12:38 – Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets
16:25 – Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse
22:28 – Dislocations across assets beyond metals
24:54 – Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions
31:33 – Discretionary versus systematic decision making
34:03 – Trend barometer and market breadth update
37:34 – Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL
41:18 – Correlation versus volatility predictability
45:13 – MAN Group paper on market selection
58:36 – What investors really want from trend following

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Read Katy Kaminski's paper and the Meketa paper.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
00:39 – Weather disruptions and market perspective
02:31 – Precious metals and extreme commodity moves
04:28 – Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts
07:43 – Replication versus full CTA diversification
09:47 – Liquidity differences across metals
12:03 – Metals leading trend performance in 2026
15:01 – Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits
20:13 – Media attention and the return of trend following
23:29 – Research insights on speed and dispersion
31:44 – Trend speed and timing tradeoffs
40:59 – Market concentration and narrow universes
43:19 – Volatility estimation as a hidden driver
50:41 – Crisis alpha and regime change
59:53 – Geopolitical risk and future research themes

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Read Yoav's Eras Tour paper.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction and series context
01:08 – Inflation back on the radar
02:38 – Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives
06:56 – Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation
08:52 – Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves
10:48 – Trend performance and early 2026 conditions
11:30 – Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends
17:26 – The all weather portfolio problem
18:18 – Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns
22:39 – Commodity trend as a defensive building block
27:01 – Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead
30:04 – What commodity trend really means
33:35 – Institutional resistance to commodities
43:51 – Allocation stability versus macro forecasting
45:23 – Fixed income trends, carry, and autocorrelation

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction and welcome
01:05 – A disrupted start to 2026
03:10 – Narratives, information, and price formation
07:06 – Why stories often fail to move markets
09:31 – Recurring themes and market attention
10:59 – Strong early conditions for trend following
12:01 – Dispersion across strategies in 2025
15:06 – Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year
18:42 – Speed versus universe in trend design
23:17 – Why recent outperformance can mislead
31:08 – Institutional views on trend following
40:21 – Nonlinear time series momentum research
50:30 – Autonomy of trend and crisis behavior
56:35 – What theory explains about trend robustness
59:00 – Closing thoughts and next episode

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening and the start of 2026
03:21 – A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following
08:55 – Why coordination fades and imbalances persist
12:41 – Early market signals and unusual positioning
14:34 – 2025 in review, concentration and recovery
17:36 – Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following
23:00 – Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking
28:37 – Brakes and acceleration, trading the now
40:58 – The future as unfinished, not hidden
49:54 – Prediction versus participation
53:53 – Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility
01:02:49 – Predetermined response and process control
01:05:30 – Closing reflections and looking ahead

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening and recap of the year end roundtable format
02:05 – Introducing AI in systematic investing and total portfolio approaches
04:00 – Will TPA meaningfully increase allocations to CTAs or just rebrand 60/40
06:30 – Practical uses of AI in research, coding and client communication
08:50 – Process stability in changing regimes and the temptation to “fix” models after pain
12:00 – When, if ever, model changes are justified versus pure overfitting
16:00 – What really causes CTA drawdowns and why “nothing happening” is so costly
20:00 – Communicating long and shallow drawdowns to committees that want simple villains
24:00 – High volatility and leveraged trend products for the retail and ETF audience
28:00 – Capital efficiency, portable alpha and how higher rates change the game
32:00 – Is dispersion in CTAs healthy diversification or a barrier to broader adoption
36:30 – Outrageous predictions for 2026 in rates, equities, vol and trend following
41:00 – Final reflections, investor takeaways and invitation for listener questions

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
02:24 – Setting the agenda for the year-end group discussion
06:04 – Return dispersion and the shock around Liberation Day
10:41 – Market selection versus trend speed as performance drivers
15:17 – Volatility adjustment and why mid-speed models struggled
21:11 – The rapid growth of non correlated assets
26:40 – Liquidity limits and reflexive effects of large inflows
31:23 – Is dispersion healthy or a hurdle for allocators
37:17 – Investor behavior versus strategy outcomes
42:56 – Are model design choices ever truly obvious
46:22 – Objectives, factor exposure, and what investors really buy
50:49 – Dispersion as differentiation or classification problem
57:07 – Evaluating managers in a world of randomness
01:02:02 – How much data is enough to judge performance
01:11:05 – Closing remarks and preview of part two

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on X.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
00:49 – Geopolitical tensions beneath the surface of markets
02:07 – Extreme bullish sentiment and record low cash levels
04:12 – Margin use, positioning, and why this setup is fragile
06:07 – Why the VIX fails as a true fear indicator
11:48 – Buffett’s concentration and risk management through quality
16:27 – Leverage, Sharpe ratios, and misunderstood diversification
21:02 – Trend following performance and late year positioning
23:48 – Positioning, reflexivity, and market microstructure
28:25 – Volatility traps and convexity before stress events
31:06 – Asymmetric opportunities in gold, FX, and bond volatility
37:17 – Populism, inequality, and long cycle market behavior
45:31 – Why 60/40 is a product of a falling rate era
54:47 – Key lessons from 2025 and structural market shifts
01:07:32 – Political cycles, midterms, and forward looking risks

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Mark on LinkedIn.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor series
00:23 – Market context and recent CTA performance
02:41 – Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut
03:12 – A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals
06:48 – Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty
08:31 – Signal versus noise in systematic trading models
11:22 – Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals
13:10 – Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets
16:30 – Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility
19:29 – Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation
22:47 – Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets
28:07 – Bubble dynamics, leverage and wealth effects
36:51 – Credit markets, AI investment and systemic risk
41:07 – Momentum, trend following and persistent market behavior
54:36 – Total portfolio approach and adaptive asset allocation

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on X.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
00:23 – Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week
01:27 – Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets
03:33 – Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure
05:53 – Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?
06:33 – Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to
08:55 – Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap
11:11 – How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances
12:16 – November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain
13:35 – World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and Trend index line-ups and cutoffs
21:02 – Tariffs, AI capex, rising long rates and the changing bond landscape
29:28 – Is this really a 1990s-style productivity boom or something riskier?
33:52 – Why traditional versus alternative is the wrong lens for portfolios
38:30 – Inside Alan’s Adaptive Portfolio and the 40/40/20 risk framework
47:48 – Behavioural traps and the chronic under-allocation to true diversifiers
53:34 – Tail risks, fiscal dominance and what most portfolios are missing
56:59 – Adaptive versus 60/40: drawdowns, compounding and implications for retirees
01:01:42 – Implementation, return stacking and Morningstar’s leverage label problem
01:05:54 – Closing reflections, next week’s episode and final risk reminders

by

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital .

IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Andrew on X.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday
01:14 – Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/40
03:38 – Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios
05:44 – Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs
08:25 – Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future
09:22 – Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback
10:59 – November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles
12:55 – How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day”
16:05 – Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really being delivered
18:16 – Targeting “space beta” plus cost savings: is complexity in CTAs adding or destroying value?
22:14 – Indexing the replication strategy and using swaps: Simplify’s new “low” headline fee ETF built on Andrew’s index
30:49 – The fee and cost debate: headline fees, trading costs, swaps and what investors should really ask
34:33 – Implementation costs, incentive fees and tax efficiency versus simple fee labels
45:08 – A better story for managed futures: from black box trend to “cloudy crystal ball”
51:22 – How trend taps local information: “someone knows something” and prices as detectors
58:03 – Takeaways from the Stockholm roundtable: short vs long term, exotic markets and heterogeneity
01:01:07 – Alpha-beta separation, core CTA beta vs high-conviction managers and where the space is heading
01:03:44 – Closing thoughts: civilized disagreement, common mission and why every portfolio needs this exposure