TTU Trend Barometer
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on X.

Follow Patrick on LinkedIn.

Timestamps

00:00 – Why investors tend to get into strategies too late
00:53 – Introducing Patrick Welton
02:36 – From medicine to professional trading
04:33 – Commodities Corporation and lessons from Paul Tudor Jones
11:17 – How managing outside money changes everything
15:26 – Why volatility targeting became important for managed futures
19:53 – Should managers give investors what they actually want?
25:33 – The four S’s of building a trading system
30:53 – Replication and whether cheaper really means better
34:59 – Where trend following returns actually come from
41:15 – Why short-term trading requires a different kind of edge
45:21 – Have multi-strategy funds changed trend following?
49:52 – The biggest misconceptions about trend following
55:09 – How do you know when a strategy has reached capacity?
58:27 – Market regimes, robustness and the importance of staying the course

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on X.

Timestamps

01:40 – Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career
03:01 – From tennis to trading and early market exposure
06:10 – Opening range breakout and early momentum edge
08:04 – Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time
14:21 – The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets
17:53 – Are markets changing or just the participants
20:34 – Liquidity events and large player behavior
24:14 – The role and limits of technical analysis
32:44 – Model decay and adapting systematic strategies
39:17 – Execution as a primary source of edge
40:40 – AI, automation, and the future of trading
51:18 – Effort vs result and the meaning of volume
56:56 – Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Jeff on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on X.

Timestamps

00:00 – Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda
04:09 – From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence
09:32 – Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation
14:48 – Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification
19:55 – Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression
25:21 – What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha
30:44 – Trend as a systematic return stream and why BlackRock entered the ETF trend space
35:58 – Breadth, capacity and why market selection matters more than cocoa
41:12 – Defensive alpha explained using a credit lens on equities and crisis behaviour
46:27 – Execution, implementation alpha and using BlackRock’s liquidity river
51:39 – Constraints of wrappers, leverage limits and designing strategies for ETFs
56:54 – Growth of liquid alternatives, 50 30 20 and replacing the old 60 40 mindset
01:02:10 – Equity concentration, big tech, AI and the need for uncorrelated return streams
01:07:32 – Whole portfolio thinking, total portfolio approach and final takeaways

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Artem on X.

Check out these resources about farmland investing.

Timestamps

02:24 – A recap on our previous conversation
06:22 – What has changed about their strategy since our last conversation (in 2020)?
10:28 – How does farmland investing actually generate income?
12:32 – How does farmland investing work and operate?
15:28 – Geopolitical volatility – How FarmTogether deals with tariffs
19:00 – How different types of crops carries different types of risk
23:22 – A deep dive into the volatility behind farmland investing
27:40 – What is a fair level of volatility to expect from farmland investing?
30:49 – The tech side of agriculture – where are we heading?
33:58 – Major changes in agriculture on the horizon
40:22 – How much money has been allocated to farmland investing today?
41:58 – Are institutions sleeping on farmland investing?
43:40 – Liquidity and fees – what can you expect from farmland investing?
46:00 – Sustainability and profitability – 2 sides of the same coin
49:08 – How FarmTogether deals with drought and limited water supplies
52:26 – How political pressure impacts agriculture
56:12 – Are we entering an agricultural supercycle?
58:56 – How the billionaires are approaching farmland
01:00:26 – The most important question(s) to ask in farmland investing
01:03:59 – The biggest challenge for family offices today

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Razvan on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Timestamps

01:28 – Introduction to Razvan Remsing and Aspect Capital
06:50 – A critical time for portable alpha products
18:25 – The evolution of the sophistication of investors
25:44 – Why trend following is the magic sauce to your portfolio
33:07 – Are investors sleeping on portable alpha strategies?
37:07 – The state of the CTA space from a global macro perspective
45:14 – The total portfolio approach
52:48 – Razvan's perspective on replication strategies
58:14 – Key advice for working with clients

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Graham on LinkedIn.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Timestamps

04:02 – Introduction to Yoav Git
06:16 – The background behind Graham, Rob and Yoav's relationship
12:15 – What is common about people working at Man AHL?
15:47 – Should you focus on single or multi asset classes?
24:58 – The state and outlook for fixed income and
29:47 – Liquidity and how it plays a role in alternative markets
36:09 – Are investors misunderstanding liquidity?
37:28 – How do you actually measure and think about liquidity?
39:50 – Why are CTAs not widely represented in portfolio?
49:14 – How to understand and master execution
58:01 – Research and technology in systematic trading
01:02:36 – “My love for you is like a magnitude 6 earthquake, your sharpe ratio makes me
tremble in size”
01:05:00 – Are we at a turning point for trend following?

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow William on X and read his book.

Timestamps

01:42 – Catching up since our last conversation
07:22 – The importance of having connection and belonging along the path
13:51 – The power of friendships
20:21 – A key component to achieve success
22:20 – The pitfalls of becoming successful
26:47 – How psychology influences investment decisions and how to overcome biases
34:23 – Common biases among successful investors
41:10 – How we can broaden our perspective to include happiness in our perception of wealth
51:45 – Advice to become a healthy successful investor
56:58 – How to set yourself up to survive economic downturns
01:05:00 – How successful investors avoid being taken out of the game
01:11:15 – How successful investors use AI in their investment strategies
01:15:31 – How we can use storytelling to demystify complex financial topics
01:25:25 – Green's advice for other investors
01:31:53 – How different will the future actually be from the past?
01:38:57 – How do you identify ideas and lessons that really matters

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Todd on LinkedIn.

Timestamps

02:24 – Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital
05:43 – A global macro perspective
09:45 – How has the industry evolved?
13:51 – Are investors under-allocated to trend?
17:11 – Trend following – a return enhancer?
20:37 – The correlation between stocks and bonds
25:27 – The path to offer multible strategies
29:47 – Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors
33:26 – Are CTAs threatened by replication strategies?
39:11 – How are allocations funded now?
42:28 – CTAs – competitors or a different allocation?
44:44 – Does capping the beta make sense?
49:21 – Are investors becoming too difficult?
52:49 – Todd's view on the use of artificial intelligence
58:13 – Has trend following changed because of AI?
01:02:53 – Excitement and concerns for 2024

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Chesapeake Capital.

Timestamps

02:58 – Introduction to Chesapeake Capital
07:02 – Jerry's key trend following learnings
12:54 – Jerry's investment philosophy
17:02 – Being evolutionary without too much tinkering
22:09 – Advice on running a trend following program
26:48 – Their process for selecting parameters
32:15 – What does an improvement look like…if not a higher Sharpe?
39:25 – The role of volatility in the trend following process
44:41 – The challenges of working with clients
48:51 – What if everyone was a trend follower?
54:21 – Can you be a good manager without using stops?
57:05 – Why are the other CTAs “wrong”?
01:04:33 – Trend following disagreements
01:06:42 – Excitements for the future
01:08:23 – Final thoughts

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about EMC Capital Advisors.

Timestamps

02:19 – Introduction to EMC Capital Advisors
07:30 – Their investment philosophy
10:30 – What differentiates them from their peers?
12:33 – The key to succes
14:06 – Their approach to open equity
17:22 – Staying true to trend following
20:13 – Improving the risk adjusted profile
23:15 – An evolving system
28:19 – Slow or fast?
30:44 – Being aware of volatility
32:44 – Trend following vs. momentum
37:19 – “The technical logic of the system”
40:05 – An adaptive process
43:58 – How they reach their goals
45:46 – Pros and cons of adding more markets
50:11 – How they manage risk
57:23 – How have markets changed over time?
01:00:03 – Trend following disagreements
01:03:53 – What is he excited for this year?
01:06:30 – Thanks for listening

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Metori Capital Management.

Timestamps

02:17 – Introduction to Metori Capital Management
04:08 – Their investment philosophy
09:47 – An alternative view on Sharpe
18:44 – Adding value to a trend following program
21:08 – Signal filtering and embedding correlations
24:46 – The better technique and right timeframe
27:35 – Selecting and changing parameters
30:18 – Their view on replication
32:50 – Advice on evaluating and selecting managers
35:48 – Benefiting from alternative markets
39:30 – The risk of alternative markets
41:29 – Looking beyond China
42:18 – Incorporating ESGs with alternative markets
45:20 – Overcoming investors' trend following barriers
49:39 – The role of trend in a multi-asset portfolio
53:47 – Are risk mitigation strategies going out of fashion? 
55:49 – Too much money in trend following?
58:57 – Trend following disagreements
01:00:56 – Expectations for 2023
01:02:55 – Thanks for listening

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management.

Timestamps

02:16 – Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management
03:46 – Their investment philosophy
10:00 – A period of challenges
13:26 – Believing in change
15:45 – Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about?
23:02 – Looking back in time
30:42 – The role of short-term trading
38:56 – What drives short-term trading?
42:47 – Being smart with execution
46:09 – Dealing with the downsides
53:53 – Studying the markets
55:49 – The dangers of machine learning
58:41 – Capacity and liquidity in short-term strategies
01:05:33 – Short-term trading disagreements
01:08:00 – Thanks for listening