TTU Trend Barometer
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Trend Following: Is it for you?
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U Got Options

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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Timestamps

00:00 – Introduction and why Kevin Warsh's arrival at the Fed matters
02:25 – Warsh steps into a divided Federal Reserve
05:13 – The debt problem and the pressures facing policymakers
07:52 – Can Warsh avoid another era of quantitative easing?
10:00 – Interest rates, inflation, and the limits of Fed policy
17:53 – Revisiting Arthur Burns and the lessons of the 1970s
23:02 – Treasury buybacks, debt monetization, and market stability
29:27 – Populism, demographics, and the future inflation outlook
37:34 – Is the Fed’s mandate shifting toward managing government debt?
43:06 – Sovereign wealth funds and the possibility of equity market intervention
45:56 – Would merging Treasury and the Fed end central bank independence?
49:59 – Has the Federal Reserve broken the natural business cycle?
51:22 – Final thoughts on crisis, reform, and America’s economic future

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Timestamps

00:00:03 – Introduction to the episode and trading floor setting
00:01:28 – Cem introduces Lyn Alden and frames the macro discussion
00:02:23 – Lyn outlines her framework and the rise of fiscal dominance
00:05:31 – Multipolar world and shifting reserve currency dynamics
00:06:20 – Why debt cycles lead to persistent fiscal expansion
00:13:42 – Debate on debt, modern monetary theory, and dollar privilege
00:18:29 – Populism, inequality, and political drivers of inflation
00:24:25 – Trade deficits, globalization, and domestic consequences
00:30:20 – What happens if dollar dominance weakens
00:34:16 – Comparing today to the 1940s vs the 1970s
00:41:47 – Democracy, authoritarian drift, and rule of law
00:44:17 – AI, productivity, and inflationary policy responses
00:56:08 – Lyn’s views on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto markets
01:03:34 – Debate on the long term sustainability of crypto
01:09:42 – Closing thoughts on power, money, and the macro outlook

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Timestamps

01:28 – Introducing Neil Howe and why this conversation matters now
03:37 – What the Fourth Turning is and how the cycle works
10:26 – “The Fourth Turning Is Here” and the practical question: what do we do?
16:42 – Rates, inequality, and why the last 40 years may not repeat
20:17 – Inflation as a crisis tool, not a forecasting error
26:43 – Options, convexity, and non-linear portfolios in regime change
33:31 – The surge into “non-correlated” assets and what it signals
39:39 – Market closures, devaluation, and the limits of buy-the-dip history
45:28 – Commodities as a missing portfolio leg and the volatility debate
48:12 – Howe’s ETF framework: themes, commodities, cash, and tail hedges
52:43 – Timing the crisis, geopolitics, and the authoritarianism question

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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Timestamps

00:00 – Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting
02:18 – Ben Hunt’s background and Epsilon Theory origins
04:11 – Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game
06:15 – Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis
08:18 – Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal
11:16 – Mapping meaning and truthy stories
15:00 – LLMs as operating systems, not oracles
18:01 – Giving money back and when models stop working
21:16 – Applying narrative tools beyond markets
24:10 – Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations
30:43 – Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care
33:29 – Dormant stories and volatility discovery
34:26 – The sell America narrative and capital flows
40:05 – Common knowledge and reflexivity
45:44 – Regime change, multipolarity, and narrative dominance

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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Timestamps

00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.
00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.
00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.
00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.
00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.
00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.
00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.
00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.
00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.
00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress.
00:37:48 – Euro FX vol: the paradox of cheap risk.
00:44:07 – Demographics and the quiet mathematics of decline.
00:47:46 – The “Hunger Games” for global savings begins.
00:52:57 – Lessons from 1997: FX and gold vol as survival trades.
00:56:11 – The anti-fiat portfolio—Bitcoin, gold, and long vol.
01:01:13 – Closing reflection on resilience as freedom.

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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Timestamps

00:00 – Opening and introductions
01:29 – Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI
03:10 – Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades
14:13 – Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies
21:20 – Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity
32:24 – Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations
39:44 – The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers
44:39 – Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility
56:06 – Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts
01:05:21 – Closing remarks and disclaimers

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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Timestamps

01:27 – Introduction to Vlad Tenev
05:11 – Big announcements from Robinhood
09:15 – Tenev's favorite commodities
12:13 – Lets talk about options!
18:20 – How AI can benefit options trading
21:56 – Short selling is coming to Robinhood
25:44 – The path to making Robinhood more resilient
28:02 – The great transfer of wealth
31:17 – How Robinhood differentiates themselves from other platforms
33:35 – Creating a broader army
37:23 – What is Robinhood most excited for going forward?

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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Timestamps

59:42 – Introduction to the series
02:21 – Where did options come from and where are we going?
10:20 – The purpose and mechanisms of the VIX decomposition tool
18:55 – The history of the VIX index
23:20 – The beginning of a volmageddon
26:24 – A comparison between 2 recent volatility events (August 2024 and April 2025)
35:03 – Key indicators for understanding risk in markets
42:23 – The current state of 0DTE options
50:29 – The optimal way of using VIX and hedge options

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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Timestamps

00:02 – Introduction to the UGO series
01:26 – Introduction to Rick Santelli
05:16 – The first trade Santelli ever made
06:32 – The historical performance of gold
08:39 – Why did Santelli move to interest rates?
10:28 – How technology impacts the way we invest
13:30 – A shadow Fed president
14:46 – How Alan Greenspan changed everything
18:47 – We are starting to pay the price of overspending
22:04 – Money printing – a daisy chain of a closed circuit
23:50 – How do we get out of debt and how does it end?
29:06 – How do you invest wisely in today's economy?
36:48 – Cost of credit: The lurking financial threat
39:03 – How young people should set themselves up for retirement

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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Follow Cem on X.

Timestamps

00:11 – Introduction… setting the stage
03:01 – Understanding Options and Market Dynamics
09:47 – Market Dynamics and the Role of Administration
11:41 – Market Volatility and Structural Changes in Trading
19:00 – The Impact of Structural Changes on Market Volume
26:13 – Understanding Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation
30:23 – The Impact of Interest Rates on Investment Strategies
34:21 – Understanding Zero DTE Options and Their Market Impact
39:50 – Economic Outlook: Tariffs and Interest Rates

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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Timestamps

02:01 – Introduction to Jim Bianco and Bianco Research
06:36 – The big macro picture view
16:02 – The financial inequality is at an all time high
22:51 – The power of generational wealth
24:07 – The imbalance of politics – something has to change
27:47 – Why we will see a major shift in how we invest soon
30:19 – How the economy is changing
36:10 – What defines a strong economy?
40:58 – What is Trump talking about?
45:36 – The outlook of the economy
53:33 – The core of the political problems in the US
55:16 – How to benefit from the current market volatility

by

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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Timestamps

02:04 – Introduction to Mike Green
07:39 – How and why 0DTE options have changed the investing landscape
17:23 – Implied volatility is changing – what does it mean for investors?
25:18 – How periods of relative stability impact investor behaviour
31:03 – The unwind of passives – is the system under pressure?
39:51 – What are prices actually telling us?
43:31 – Why this cycle might be different
48:52 – What makes a long lasting investor?
54:17 – A deep dive into passive flows
57:18 – Individualism in investing – are we becoming too separated?