Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the past about inflation and advice for trading in an inflationary regime. Additionally, Darius explains how he and 42macro consider external factors, such as demographics and structural changes when trading and analyzing the markets and he describes the financial and political impact of approaching a new Fourth Turning. Lastly, we discuss portfolio construction and risk management frameworks, why it is important to be humble and honest about the uncertainty and unpredictability of the current state of the markets and much more.
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00:00 - Intro
03:15 - Who is Darius Dale?
06:48 - Darius’s strategic perspective
10:38 - What will happen to the inflation going forward?
20:28 - Looking at the next 6-12 months
26:18 - What about the longer term?
31:39 - The historical perspective
39:33 - What Darius is telling investors right now
48:22 - Dealing with external factors
58:36 - Factor correlation and clustering
01:02:07 - Are portfolio construction models outdated?
01:10:30 - Thanks for listening