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00:00 - Intro
02:58 - Introduction to Michael Gayed
06:05 - What did Michael learn from the Great Recession?
13:37 - Using the S&P instead of realized volatility
17:21 - Treasuries - A safe asset?
23:22 - A mixed picture in terms of risk
26:39 - Why Lumber instead of Copper?
30:13 - Is the (inversion of the) yield curve still valid?
31:53 - What about the asset class cycle?
34:34 - Higher rates = increased economic activity?
37:27 - Being persistent is key
39:34 - Will yields come in very sharply?
42:02 - The problem of the inflation narrative
45:31 - Allocating to ETFs and funds
48:48 - The sad side to the business
58:26 - Key takeaways from Niels