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29 The Systematic Investor Series ft Jesse Felder – March 31st, 2019

In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast.  Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about Passive Investing, his go-to timing tools, and if Value Investing can be applied to non-equity markets such as Gold.  We also ask Jesse: does he use the VIX index for hedging? What is a normal day is like for him?  Jesse tells us why he considers Trend Following a good forecasting tool, gives us his thoughts on predicting versus reacting to price moves, and also lets us know what he’s currently reading.

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Episode Summary

0:00 - Intro
1:50 - Weekly review
5:20 - Jesse reviews his background/influences
8:00 - Jesse describes his process
12:45 - Question from Francois: Would Jesse discuss his view we’re in/entering a bear market?
19:30 - Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on passive indexing
25:40 - Niels asks how float reduction impacts passive investing
28:00 - Jerry asks if ZIRP impacts valuation-based investing
30:10 - Niels asks Jesse how a transition to an inflationary environment will impact investing
34:40 - Moritz asks if/how Jesse applies the value approach to all asset classes
36:50 - Moritz asks if Jesse trades the VIX or otherwise hedges tails
Book reference: The Tao of Capital by Spitznagel
40:10 - Jerry asks Jesse’s thoughts on TF as a tool benefitting diversification
42:00 - Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on the market not broadly recognizing the evidence supporting Trend Following
47:20 - Jerry/Jesse/Niels discuss forecasting and TF
50:00 - Question from George: Why is knowing what’s happening fundamentally better than just responding to price (i.e. trend following)?
56:20 - Niels asks Jesse’s view on Tesla
1:00:20 - Moritz asks how Jesse spends a typical day
1:01:30 - Niels asks what Jesse is reading now
1:03:20 - Moritz asks about Jesse’s interests/hobbies
1:04:40 - Niels asks about following Buffett/Munger and shifts in markets today
1:08:45 - Niels asks if Jesse applies analog analysis to markets
1:11:50 - Niels asks Jesse’s recommendations on things to read/listen to to learn about investing
1:14:00 - Performance recap

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