TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED Q1 2025 REVIEW

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The first few months of 2025 have felt more like a full year’s worth of drama crammed into a quarter. Geopolitical tensions are simmering. Inflation is still lurking. And the markets? Well, let’s just say they’ve been anything but predictable. At Top Traders Unplugged, we’ve had a front-row seat to it all, covering the chaos and digging into what it all means with some of the sharpest minds in the industry.

Through January, February, and March, we’ve tackled the big questions: Is the global economy entering a new phase of instability? Are we witnessing the early signs of a structural shift in markets? How do we prepare — not just financially, but mentally — for a world that’s becoming more uncertain by the day? We have kept these questions front and center.

In this quarterly wrap-up, we’re taking a step back to reflect on the key themes, the hard-hitting conversations, and the macro forces shaping markets today. If you’ve been tuning in, you already know it’s been a ride. If you’ve missed a few episodes, now’s your chance to catch up.

A Storm of Headlines and a Rising Tide of Uncertainty

There’s no polite way to say it: the news cycle lately has been exhausting. By March, it already felt like we’d lived through a year’s worth of headlines. You can see it in the volatility charts, hear it in central bank speeches, and feel it in the headlines. Everything feels unusually interconnected, and we are seeing feedback loops forming between geopolitics, markets, technology, and policy in real time.

Donald Trump’s return to the tariff playbook has reignited a full-blown conversation about protectionism and trade wars. His proposed across-the-board tariff — along with whispers of even harsher measures on Chinese goods — has investors, policy analysts, and corporate executives dusting off their 2018 game plans. Only this time, the global supply chain is even more fragile, and the political climate more charged.

Then there’s the market’s relationship with uncertainty. Not the abstract kind — the real, messy, nerve-wracking uncertainty that forces investors to rethink everything. With central banks signaling mixed messages, bond markets flashing warning signs, and volatility simmering just beneath the surface, confidence in traditional playbooks is starting to waver.

Tech remained a tale of two cities. On one side, AI and automation continued to attract massive investment and speculative fervor. On the other, regulators around the world stepped up their scrutiny, raising questions about what growth in this space will look like in a more tightly governed environment. Meanwhile, volatility products and structured options strategies saw increased interest as market participants looked for ways to trade and protect themselves in an increasingly reflexive and fragmented market landscape.

Of course, we have to speak about gold. After years of drifting in and out of the spotlight, it’s firmly back on the radar. With central banks continuing to hoard the metal and investors hedging against fiat uncertainty, gold prices are inching toward all-time highs. This is a broader signal about confidence, or the lack thereof, in monetary regimes around the world.

The macro picture also includes tensions brewing in Eastern Europe, new fault lines in the Middle East, and rising concerns about economic warfare. We're seeing currencies, capital flows, and even commodity trade become chess pieces in a broader geopolitical game. The implications for investors are enormous and still largely unpriced.

All of this has created a moment where narratives shift fast, and trust is becoming a scarce commodity. It’s exactly the kind of environment where thoughtful investing matters most.

A Heavy-Hitting Start to the Year

We launched 2025 with a bang, as is tradition, by bringing together two heavyweights of global macro thinking: Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan. Their episode, The Market Risk Nobody’s Watching, was both a crowd favorite and a sobering reality check.

The duo warned that investors relying on historical correlations and old playbooks could be blindsided if those relationships break down under stress. In an environment of rising interest rates, such structures could introduce a kind of latent fragility. The conversation even raised the possibility of a looming monetary regime shift reminiscent of the late 1990s, driven by today’s unique mix of geopolitical tension and domestic policy shifts.

Dave warned of the quiet, creeping risks that often go unnoticed until they explode. Cem, meanwhile, pointed to reflexivity in markets and how engineered narratives (especially from policy circles) can give investors a false sense of security. If you missed this one, go back and listen. It sets the tone not just for the quarter, but possibly for the year.

When Commodities Speak, Listen

In March, we had Adam Rozencwajg back on the show for an episode we called Doomsday Clock Ticks: Are We Close to a Monetary Shift? With a title like that, this episode had a sense of urgency – and it delivered. Before you panic, the “doomsday clock” analogy wasn’t about nuclear war, but it painted a vivid picture of how close we might be to a tipping point in markets.

As always, Adam brought deep insights into the raw materials driving the real economy. He laid out a compelling argument for why certain commodities are severely underpriced. And more provocatively, he suggested we could be on the cusp of a systemic shift in how value is stored and exchanged globally.

He made the case that we're on the brink of a monetary inflection point driven not just by inflation, but by resource scarcity, geopolitical fragmentation, and eroding confidence in fiat systems. Whether or not you buy his full thesis, the logic is hard to ignore. This was one of those episodes that leaves you staring at your portfolio a little differently.

Wealth Beyond Numbers

Not every highlight was about bracing for doom and gloom. This episode with author William Green was a heartfelt exploration of wealth in the broader sense. Amid the market mayhem of Q1, Green’s return to TTU was a timely reminder of the human side of investing.

He shared wisdom from his years interviewing legendary investors, underlining that true riches aren’t just measured in portfolio returns. The discussion ventured into the principles of living a fulfilling life: the freedom that financial security can grant, the importance of nurturing relationships and personal growth, and the value of staying grounded and humble no matter how successful you become.

He talked about autonomy, meaning, peace of mind — the parts of the portfolio that don’t show up in a quarterly statement but matter just as much. The broader appeal of Green’s message was essentially how to be “rich” not just in dollars, but in life experience and purpose.

Power Plays and the Politics of Money

If any episode lived up to the word “unfiltered,” it was this one. Cem Karsan returned to offer a frank analysis of how today’s political undercurrents are driving market outcomes. A major theme here was the idea of an “engineered” recession – could policymakers actually welcome a mild downturn to tame inflation or achieve other aims?

Cem weighed in on U.S. policy maneuvers, arguing that some economic pain might not be accidental but rather a calculated trade-off. The episode then zoomed out to international power plays: Europe’s ramp-up in defense spending, Turkey’s economic struggles and increasingly important geopolitical role, and more.

The big takeaway was that in 2025’s complex landscape, markets and politics are entwined like never before. This episode gave a candid rundown of global hot spots and the likely economic ripple effects, delivered in Karsan’s signature straight-talking style.

Economic Warfare: The New Battlefield

One of the most intellectually provocative episodes of the quarter came from former U.S. State Department advisor Edward Fishman. As someone deeply involved in crafting sanctions during the Obama administration, Edward brought a rare insider’s view into how economic weapons are now used in lieu of military ones.

Fishman, having authored a new book called “Chokepoints” on this very topic, explained how the U.S. leverages its dominance in global finance and tech to put pressure on countries like Russia, Iran, and China. Perhaps the most eye-opening insight was that these tactics are here to stay.

It was a timely discussion as Q1 saw plenty of examples of this “war by other means,” and it equipped the TTU community with a framework to interpret such news going forward.

Say Hello to “U Got Options” — Our New Series!

It wouldn’t be a proper Q1 wrap without a nod to the exciting launch of our new series: “U Got Options”, hosted by none other than Cem Karsan. The first episode featured Mike Green, and it hit the ground running.

Cem and Mike unpacked the growing dominance of options flows — especially 0DTEs — and how this new wave of reflexive trading is reshaping intraday price action. But more than that, they looked at what it means for the bigger picture: liquidity, market structure, and even democracy itself.

This isn’t your typical options podcast. It promises to dig deeper into derivatives, positioning, and the nuances of market mechanics in a way that few others can. If the first episode is anything to go by, U Got Options is going to be essential listening for anyone trying to understand where markets are going and why.

And So Much More…

Of course, there were other standout moments this quarter. Our discussions with Rob Carver, Graham Robertson, and Yoav Git on CTAs were equal parts educational and practical. Alan Dunne’s insights on ETFs and commodity distortion sparked a lot of debate. And the showdown between Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel on CTAs vs. ETFs added some friendly fire to the mix.

Each episode brought something different to the table — fresh ideas, new angles, bold predictions — and we’re proud of the diversity of thought we’ve been able to showcase this quarter.

Looking Ahead

If the first three months of 2025 have taught us anything, it’s that certainty is a luxury no one can afford. We have also been reminded that markets don’t operate in a vacuum. They’re shaped by politics, by policy, by people, and increasingly, by forces that don’t follow neat economic models. That’s why at Top Traders Unplugged, we’re doubling down on what we do best: honest conversations, diverse perspectives, and a relentless focus on the truth, however uncomfortable it might be.

As the world gets noisier and more uncertain, we’re committed to cutting through that noise. You can always count on us to ask the hard questions and chase the real answers.

Stay with us!

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This is based on episodes on Top Traders Unplugged, a bi-weekly podcast with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders and thought leaders in the world. Sign up for our Newsletter or subscribe on your preferred podcast platform so that you don't miss out on future episodes.