Trend Following - Week in Review - April 18, 2025

Welcome to This Week in Trend, where we explore the pulse of futures markets and the ever-evolving terrain of trend-following. After last week’s systemic rupture, this week brought relief—not in the form of resolution, but restoration.

Volatility cooled. Commodities surged. Portfolios found their footing.
But if you're expecting clarity—you may need to wait a little longer.

“The Compass Still Works, But the Fog Hasn’t Lifted”

Markets regained some footing this week after last week’s violent rupture, but clarity remains elusive. Volatility collapsed, and strong directional moves returned—especially across commodities—yet trend-followers remain wary. The rally was real but not reassuring. Gains were made, but not universally.

What we witnessed wasn’t a regime shift—it was a recalibration. Systems survived the shakeout and are now reorienting—guided not by certainty, but by resilience.

SG Trend Index Performance

• MTD (as of April 17): -5.86%
• YTD: -10.25%

Improved slightly from last week’s MTD of -6.43% and YTD of -10.79%

This was the first positive week of April for many trend-following portfolios. The gains weren’t sweeping, but they were real. Managers who maintained commodity exposure—or re-engaged early—saw welcome relief. For others, it’s still a slow march out of a bruising drawdown. The terrain is stabilizing—but footing remains uneven.

TTU Trend Barometer: 50% – Neutral, and Cooling

• Last week: 55%
• This week: 50%
• 10-day rate-of-change: Falling moderately

The barometer confirms what many are feeling: despite strong directional movement in some sectors, the overall trend environment has softened. Pockets of opportunity exist, but the system-wide signal is blunted.

This is not a “risk-on” surge—it’s a fragile rebalancing.

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

The chart above tells the story: blue dominates, volatility collapses, and trend strength resurfaces—if unevenly.

• Metals: +6.22%

• Soft Commodities: +4.42%

• Meats: +4.47%

• Energy: +2.99%

• Volatility: -15.52%

Asset Class Breakdown – Recovery, But Not Redemption

Grains: +1.70% (Prev: Mixed)

Oats and soybean oil contributed, but the sector lacked follow-through. Improvement, but not leadership.

Meats: +4.47% (Prev: Slight Recovery)

Lean hogs and live cattle accelerated. Systems tuned to shorter-term signals benefited from breakout confirmations.

Bonds: +0.39% (Prev: -2.89%)

A modest bounce. Long bonds remain trendless—unreliable as diversifiers or trend sources.

Energy: +2.99% (Prev: -1.97%)

Crude surged, gas tanked. Dispersion remains high, but there was upside for nimble systems.

Metals: +6.22% (Prev: +4.88%)

Silver, gold, copper, and platinum extended gains. This is now the strongest, most consistent trend cluster of the month.

Softs: +4.42% (Prev: Mixed)

Orange juice and coffee led the charge. Illiquid, yes—but indicative of a broader commodity trend pulse.

Equity Index: +1.47% (Prev: +3.40%)

Momentum faded. Most systems remain flat or lightly positioned. Still trend-neutral.

Currency: +1.42% (Prev: +2.71%)

USD weakness persists. FX systems may have rotated short USD, but conviction is limited outside that theme.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

To complement the asset class shifts, here’s a snapshot of standout contracts. Refer to the chart above for the full spectrum of 1-week market performance.

Top Performers:

• Orange Juice: +15.95% – Illiquid but impressive. Trend presence across softs is building.
• Coffee: +9.46% — Reinforces momentum in the soft commodity complex.
• Crude Oil (WTI & Brent): +8.5% / +7.14% — Energy strength reemerges.
• Copper: +8.5% – Industrial signals driving hard asset strength.
• Silver & Gold: +5.81% / +5.15% — Safe-haven demand persists.

Biggest Declines:

• VIX: -15.52% — A full unwind of last week’s fear trade.
• Natural Gas: -8.69% — Remains volatile and disconnected.
• USD: -1.42% — Downward pressure continues across most pairs.
• Sugar, Soybean Meal, Nasdaq 100 – Minor drops, but directionally consistent with the dollar decline.

Portfolio Observations

• Commodities: Clear leaders—especially metals, energy, and softs.
• Equities & Bonds: Still trend-neutral. Most systems remain light or flat.
• Currencies: Helped by USD weakness, but trends remain narrow.
• Volatility: Its collapse brought stability, but also removed a profitable trade.

Final Reflections – The Compass Still Works, But the Fog Remains

After last week’s systemic reversal, this week gave portfolios a chance to breathe, rebalance, and recover.

It wasn’t a regime shift—but it was a pause in the drawdown.

• The SG Trend Index improved but remains deeply negative YTD.
• The Trend Barometer dipped, revealing fragility beneath surface gains.
• Commodities reasserted leadership, while volatility collapsed.

This is not yet a trend resurgence. It’s a recalibration. A holding pattern. A cautious step forward.

The storm may have passed—but we’re still flying through clouds. And in this kind of weather, survival is still the strategy.

The next trend will come. The question is—who will be positioned when it does?

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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