Trend Following: Week in Review - August 14, 2026

"Energy Snaps Back, Grains Find Their Feet, Metals Stall, and Trend Strength Begins to Rebuild"

This Week in Trend – 14 August 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, our weekly examination of the evolving structure of global futures markets and what that structure means for systematic trend followers. This edition covers market conditions through the US close on Friday, 14 August 2026.

The week was narrower than the last, but far more decisive where it mattered. Energy surged 5.33% and led the board, with all six contracts higher. Heating Oil jumped 9.75%, Gasoline RBOB 6.66%, Brent 5.95% and WTI 5.40%, reversing the weakness that had defined the sector over the previous fortnight. Grains followed at +2.66%, with seven of eight contracts advancing and Wheat, Canola, Corn and Oats each gaining more than 4%. Equity Indices added 0.82%, extending their advance with six of seven markets higher. Elsewhere, momentum faded. Metals were essentially flat at -0.05% after the previous week’s 6.52% surge, Bonds slipped 0.11%, Currencies 0.14% and Soft Commodities 0.23%. Bitcoin fell 1.66%, Meats lost 2.17% with all three contracts lower, and the VIX dropped 8.43%, the largest decline on the board. Overall breadth narrowed to 31 of 49 contracts higher, down from 34 the week before.

The more interesting story sits beneath those headline numbers. Last week, several young moves appeared to be breaking free. This week, most failed their first test. Metals went from a clean five-contract sweep to a mixed three-up, two-down result. Palladium surrendered roughly half of its previous 7.56% gain. Sugar, after exploding 12.21% through its range, managed only another 0.91%. Cocoa reversed from +6.83% to -2.07%, while Soft Commodities changed internal leadership yet again. By contrast, the established moves kept working. Equity Indices advanced for a fourth week, the VIX declined for a fourth, Meats fell for a third, and Bitcoin resumed its broader decline after a one-week interruption. Grains strengthened materially. Energy was the exception: a violent reversal of a two-week fall, rather than either a new trend proving itself or an old one extending. That distinction matters. The biggest move on the board was not necessarily the move a trend-following portfolio was positioned to profit from.

Trend Indicators:  Barometer Recovers 5 Points to 39% and the Rate of Change Turns Positive, SG Trend Index Turns Up

TTU Trend Barometer: 39%, up from 34% last week. The overall classification remains Moderately Weak, but the reading is now only one point below the 40% threshold for Neutral. More importantly, the 10-day rate of change has turned to Rising Weakly from Falling Moderately, its first positive reading since the sharp deterioration three weeks ago. The five-week sequence now stands at 50, 52, 30, 34, and 39. Nine of the 22 points lost in the collapse have been recovered.

There is an important wrinkle in that recovery. The Barometer rose 5 points even as market breadth narrowed from 34 advancing contracts to 31. Last week, trend strength and breadth improved together. This week they separated. Fewer markets rose, yet more markets were producing sufficiently persistent movement to register as meaningful trends.

That is not a contradiction. The Barometer measures the proportion of markets generating medium-to-strong trends. It does not measure how many markets rose, nor does it care whether those trends point up or down. A market can fall persistently and strengthen the reading. Equally, a large number of markets can rise modestly without doing much for it. This week both the level and the short-term rate of change improved, and for the first time since the collapse they are pointing in the same direction.

The source of that improvement is visible in the sector data. Energy moved as a block, with all six contracts higher and four gaining more than 5%. Grains put seven of eight contracts higher, with four gaining more than 4%. Those were concentrated, forceful moves. Against them, the Metals sweep stalled and Sugar barely extended its breakout. At 39%, the Barometer remains in a weak environment, but only just. The more significant change is the positive 10-day rate of change. Trend strength is no longer merely sitting near the bottom of the range. It has begun to rebuild.

SG Trend Index: +0.83% month to date for August and +8.80% year to date as of 14 August. The year-to-date figure has risen from +7.10% a week ago, an improvement of roughly 1.70 percentage points and the first positive week after two negative ones. For the first time in three weeks, the trend environment and trend-following returns improved together. Crucially, much of the payoff came from moves that were already established: the VIX extended its decline, Meats fell again, Bitcoin resumed falling, and Equity Indices and Grains continued higher. Energy was the notable exception, reversing sharply against the short-side move that had developed over the previous fortnight. This was not a week in which a crop of new trends suddenly appeared. It was a week in which enough existing trends persisted to pay.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Indices (+0.82% | prev +3.61%)

Equity Indices advanced another 0.82%, with six of seven contracts higher, although the pace slowed sharply from the previous week’s 3.61%. The Nikkei 225 led with a 3.60% gain, followed by the Russell 2000 at 1.09% and Nasdaq 100 at 1.03%. The S&P 500 gained 0.32%, the DAX 0.25% and Euro Stoxx 50 0.09%, while the DJIA slipped 0.64%. The weekly charts remain constructive across the complex, with most indices at or near new highs. This is still the sector where price action and trend structure agree most clearly. The move is an extension of an established advance, not a rebound within a larger decline. The weekly gain was smaller, but the underlying structure barely changed.

Energy (+5.33% | prev -3.95%)

Energy produced the week’s most dramatic reversal, rising 5.33% after two consecutive declines. Every contract advanced. Heating Oil gained 9.75%, the largest move anywhere on the board, followed by Gasoline RBOB at 6.66%, Brent at 5.95%, WTI at 5.40%, Natural Gas at 2.67% and Ethanol at 1.53%. Four of the five largest gains across the entire futures complex came from Energy. Yet the charts demand some restraint. WTI near 82.40 and Brent near 88.82 have recovered much of the ground lost over the previous fortnight, but both remain well below their spring highs. Natural Gas has bounced from the bottom of a decline without yet changing its broader structure. Heating Oil is the stronger exception, while Ethanol continues to hold its own climb. For a trend follower, the distinction is critical: a 5.33% sector gain can still be painful when it arrives as a reversal against the position most likely already held.

Metals (-0.05% | prev +6.52%)

Metals went nowhere after the previous week’s spectacular 6.52% rise. The sector finished at -0.05%, with Silver up 2.53%, Gold 0.85% and Copper 0.33%, offset by Platinum at -0.15% and Palladium at -3.83%. The clean five-contract sweep disappeared immediately. Palladium alone surrendered roughly half of its prior 7.56% gain. The weekly charts tell much the same story. Gold, Silver and Platinum have retained most of last week’s recovery, but have not materially extended it and remain within broader declines from their February highs. Palladium has rolled over again. Copper remains the exception, pressing to the highest level on its chart and preserving the sector’s clearest upward structure. Last week raised the possibility that the precious-metal complex was beginning to change character. This week failed to confirm it.

Soft Commodities (-0.23% | prev +1.60%)

Soft Commodities slipped 0.23% on an even three-up, three-down split, continuing a pattern of internal reversal rather than sector-wide direction. Orange Juice gained 1.75%, Sugar 0.91% and Cotton 0.47%, while Cocoa lost 2.07%, Lumber 1.90% and Coffee 0.51%. Once again, leadership changed hands. Orange Juice moved from the sector’s largest decline last week to its largest gain this week. Sugar held above its recent range break, but after the previous week’s 12.21% surge, a 0.91% follow-through is consolidation rather than acceleration. Cocoa gave back part of its rebound, Lumber declined for a third week and Coffee eased after its sharp recovery from the lows. Three consecutive weeks have produced three different internal configurations. The sector continues to move, but it has yet to organise itself into a durable collective trend.

Grains (+2.66% | prev +0.40%)

Grains were one of the week’s clearest developments. The sector gained 2.66%, its strongest week in months, with seven of eight contracts higher. Wheat rose 5.47%, Canola 5.01%, Corn 4.56% and Oats 4.18%. Soybean Oil, Soybeans and Soybean Meal also advanced, while Rough Rice fell 1.76% as the lone exception. More important than the average was the scale and coherence of the move. Four contracts gained more than 4%, compared with none above 3% a week earlier. The charts broadly support the improvement. Canola has pushed to a new chart high, Wheat is pressing toward the upper end of its range, Corn continues to recover from its July low, and the soybean complex has firmed. Grains had spent weeks looking less weak without becoming convincingly strong. This week, for the first time, the complex began to look like something more than the absence of a decline.

Meats (-2.17% | prev -1.18%)

Meats fell 2.17%, extending their decline for a third consecutive week, and this time all three contracts participated. Feeder Cattle lost 3.09%, Live Cattle 2.84% and Lean Hogs 0.58%. The internal divergence visible last week has disappeared. Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle have both broken lower from their recent pullbacks, while Lean Hogs remains deep in the decline that began above 105 in May. The significance is not the size of the weekly fall so much as the increasing coherence of the move. All three contracts are now travelling in the same direction, and they are doing so with persistence.

Bonds (-0.11% | prev +0.54%)

Bonds eased 0.11% after a single positive week, with the duration gradient reversing yet again. The 2 Year Note gained 0.08% and the 5 Year Note 0.03%, while the 10 Year Note slipped 0.06% and the 30 Year Bond fell 0.49%. That is almost the mirror image of the previous week, when the long end led the rebound. Across the weekly charts, the complex has returned toward the lower end of the ranges traced through spring and summer. The important point for trend followers is that the smaller move carries the greater structural significance. Last week’s 0.54% gain interrupted the prevailing decline. This week’s modest 0.11% loss moved back with it.

Currencies (-0.14% | prev +0.24%)

Currencies slipped 0.14% after two positive weeks as the US Dollar Index gained 0.14%. CAD rose 0.40%, GBP 0.25% and AUD 0.21%, while EUR fell 0.02%, NZD 0.14%, CHF 0.74% and JPY 1.20%. The yen, which had been the strongest cross in each of the previous two weeks, became the weakest. That reversal is characteristic of a complex still lacking broad directional structure. The Dollar Index remains trapped inside the range that has dominated the year, while EUR, GBP, CAD and NZD are similarly range-bound. AUD remains relatively firm, CHF has resumed its decline, and JPY continues to display the weakest underlying structure in the basket. A small negative sector average is therefore less important than the larger message: most currency markets still offer little sustained trend to capture.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX fell 8.43%, the largest decline on the board and its fourth consecutive weekly fall. Near 15.60, it is back toward the lower end of its summer range. The decline has also accelerated, with weekly falls of 5.86%, 6.15% and now 8.43% across the last three weeks, while Equity Indices have continued higher. Bitcoin moved the other way, falling 1.66% after a single positive week. Near 63,055, it has returned toward the lower end of the decline from above 120,000. Last week’s bounce interrupted that structure. This week the broader downward move resumed.

Top Movers

Energy dominates the upside table, supplying four of the five largest gains. Heating Oil leads at +9.75%, followed by Gasoline RBOB, Brent, Wheat and WTI. The downside is led by the VIX at -8.43%, followed by Palladium, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle and Cocoa. The contrast between the two sides is revealing. Much of the upside came from reversal: Energy had been falling for two weeks, and two of this week’s top gainers appeared among the previous week’s largest losers. The downside, by contrast, was dominated by persistence. The VIX extended a four-week decline, Meats extended a three-week decline, and Palladium and Cocoa resumed weakness after brief rallies. Headline magnitude belonged to the reversals. Trend-following payoff was more closely aligned with the continuations.

Portfolio View

This was the first week in several where the trend environment improved and trend-following returns improved with it. The Barometer rose from 34% to 39%, its 10-day rate of change turned positive, and the SG Trend Index advanced from +7.10% to +8.80% year to date. Yet breadth narrowed from 34 advancing contracts to 31. That apparent contradiction gets to the heart of the week. Trend following is not paid because many markets move. It is paid when the moves already held persist far enough to matter. The VIX fell for a fourth week. Meats fell for a third. Bitcoin resumed its decline. Equity Indices and Grains extended higher. Bonds moved back with their broader decline. Those were moves a diversified trend portfolio could already have been carrying. Energy, despite producing the week’s largest gains, was more likely a cost because it reversed sharply against the preceding decline. Metals provided the opposite lesson: last week’s striking sweep generated almost no follow-through. Participation narrowed, but persistence improved. For a trend follower, that distinction is everything.

Final Reflections

The defining feature of the week was not the size of any individual move. It was the return of alignment. The TTU Trend Barometer rose 5 points to 39%, the 10-day rate of change turned positive, and the SG Trend Index improved to +8.80% year to date. For the first time in three weeks, the environment reading and the realised outcome moved together. Breadth did not. Only 31 of 49 contracts advanced, down from 34 the week before. That separation is useful because it reminds us that breadth, trend strength and trend-following returns are related, but they are not the same thing.

A week ago, the Barometer rose alongside broader participation while trend-following returns deteriorated. This week, the Barometer rose more strongly, participation narrowed, and returns improved. The relationship has inverted in the space of seven days. Markets are not obliged to make our indicators agree neatly with one another.

1. Trend strength improved while breadth narrowed. Fewer markets rose, but more markets moved with enough persistence to matter.

The five-week Barometer sequence now reads 50, 52, 30, 34 and 39. Two consecutive recoveries have reclaimed 9 of the 22 points lost in the collapse, leaving the reading just one point below Neutral. Yet breadth fell from 34 advancing contracts to 31. Energy and Grains explain much of the divergence: both moved with unusual force and internal coherence. Meanwhile, the three apparent changes of state highlighted last week all struggled for follow-through. Metals went from five contracts higher to a mixed result, Sugar added only 0.91% after its 12.21% breakout, and Bonds surrendered their one-week rebound. None of those moves explains the Barometer’s recovery. The improvement came from markets moving more decisively, not from more markets moving. That is the distinction worth carrying forward.

2. Energy delivered the week’s largest gains, yet for an established trend-following book, it may have been the week’s clearest source of pain.

Energy swung from -3.95% to +5.33%, a 9.28 percentage-point reversal. All six contracts rose, with Heating Oil up 9.75%, Gasoline RBOB 6.66%, Brent 5.95% and WTI 5.40%. But the charts still place much of that move inside the decline of the previous fortnight. A portfolio carrying short exposure into the week would have absorbed the reversal rather than celebrated the headline gain. Compare that with the VIX, Meats and Grains. Their weekly moves were smaller, but they extended structures already in place and therefore had a much greater chance of being captured. This is one of trend following’s least intuitive truths: the biggest market move is not necessarily the biggest portfolio opportunity. Direction without persistence can be noise. Persistence is what converts movement into something a systematic trend follower can own.

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity remained directional, but never directionally biased.

The week ahead therefore turns on a simple boundary. The Barometer sits at 39%, one point below Neutral, with its rate of change positive for the first time since the collapse. Does the recovery cross 40%, or stall at the threshold? Energy will be important. A second strong week would begin to make its reversal look more durable; a failure would make it resemble last week’s Metals sweep. Grains may be even more revealing. They are the one complex where a fresh improvement in the numbers is also being confirmed by the charts. If that persists, the recovery in trend strength will have something more substantial beneath it.

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List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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