Trend Following: Week in Review - August 28, 2026

“Grains Sweep the Board, Breadth Narrows Sharply, Metals Resume Their Decline, and Trend Strength Reaches the Favourable Threshold”

This Week in Trend – 28 August 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, our weekly examination of the evolving structure of global futures markets and what that structure means for systematic trend followers. This edition covers market conditions through the US close on Friday, 28 August 2026.

This was a much quieter week than the last. It may also have been a better one for trend followers. Grains supplied almost all of the movement, gaining 5.63% with all eight contracts higher. Wheat led at 12.12%, followed by Oats at 9.02% and Soybean Meal at 6.86%. Nothing else came close. Soft Commodities added 0.25%, Equity Indices 0.23% and Bonds 0.04%, three averages near enough to zero to tell us very little. The declines were more numerous. Currencies fell 0.67% as the US Dollar Index rose 0.94% and every other cross in the basket dropped. Metals lost 0.72%, Meats fell 1.26% for a fifth consecutive week, Energy gave up 1.57% after two weeks of gains, Bitcoin eased 1.64% and the VIX fell 3.24% for a sixth. Breadth narrowed from 31 of 49 contracts higher to 21. The average move across the board fell from 1.97% to 0.43%, while the spread between best and worst contracted from 25.94 percentage points to 18.30.

The useful part is what happened underneath those smaller numbers. Last week’s report left two questions open: could Energy extend its rebound for a third week, and could Metals clear their February highs? Neither happened. Energy fell 1.57%, with WTI down 4.20% and Brent down 5.48%, giving back the ground that had carried both beyond the origin of the July decline. Gold, Silver and Platinum turned lower again after a single week of retracement. Bitcoin surrendered just 1.64% after the previous week’s 21.86% surge. In other words, several of the counter-trend moves that dominated last week simply stopped. The structures beneath them remained. Meanwhile, the only sector that moved with real force, Grains, moved in the direction its charts had already been pointing for a fortnight.

Trend Indicators: Barometer Adds 5 Points to Reach 55% and the Rate of Change Slows, SG Trend Index Advances for a Third Week

TTU Trend Barometer: 55%, up from 50% last week. The 5 point gain carries the reading to the 55% mark that separates Neutral from a favourable environment, and the overall classification is given as Strong. This is the highest level in the current sequence and the first time in it that the reading has reached the threshold. The 10-day rate of change remains positive at Rising Weakly, slowing from Rising Moderately, a third consecutive positive reading. The five-week sequence now stands at 30, 34, 39, 50 and 55. The 22 points lost in the late July collapse have not only been recovered but exceeded, with the reading now sitting 3 points above the 52% that preceded the fall.

Here is the interesting part. The Barometer reached the highest reading in the sequence during the quietest week of it. Breadth fell from 31 of 49 contracts to 21. The average move across the board dropped from 1.97% to 0.43%, roughly a fifth of the previous week’s. The spread from best to worst narrowed from 25.94 percentage points to 18.30. Fewer markets moved, and those that did moved much less. The Barometer rose anyway.

There is no contradiction in that. The Barometer measures the proportion of markets generating medium-to-strong trends. It is about persistence, not the size of this week’s move, and it does not care whether that persistence points up or down. Breadth tells us how many markets moved. Amplitude tells us how far. Neither tells us whether those moves reinforced something already in place. That distinction explains the week.

The sector data makes the point. Grains gained 5.63%, with all eight contracts higher and seven at or near the highest levels on their charts. At the other end, four of the largest declines on the board came from markets that had risen a week earlier and then resumed the falls those rallies interrupted: Orange Juice, Brent, WTI and Silver. Currencies moved as a coordinated bloc for a second week, this time with the dollar strengthening. Meats declined for a fifth week and the VIX for a sixth. At 55%, the Barometer is calling the smallest week of the sequence its strongest because much more of the movement was persistent.

SG Trend Index: +1.66% month to date for August and +9.69% year to date as of 28 August. The month-to-date figure has risen from +1.13% and the year-to-date figure from +9.12%, marking a third consecutive positive week. The comparison with the Barometer remains instructive. Two weeks ago a 5 point rise in the Barometer coincided with roughly 1.70 percentage points of year-to-date improvement. Last week an 11 point rise coincided with only 0.32. This week another 5 point rise coincided with 0.57. The same change in the environment can produce very different portfolio outcomes. Trend strength describes the persistence available. Return records the persistence a portfolio was actually positioned to capture.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Indices (+0.23% | prev -1.87%)

Equity Indices added 0.23% after a single week lower, with five of seven contracts higher. The DAX led at 1.67%, followed by Euro Stoxx 50 at 0.45%, the DJIA at 0.43%, the S&P 500 at 0.40% and the Nasdaq 100 at 0.35%. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.24% and the Russell 2000 lost 1.48%. Last week’s uniform decline looked more like a pause inside an established structure than a break, and this week did nothing to disturb that reading. The DAX near 26,615 has pushed to the highest level on its chart. The S&P 500 near 7,724.75, Nasdaq 100 near 29,509.50 and DJIA near 53,590 remain close to recent peaks, while the Nikkei 225 near 65,845 is still well above the level from which its advance began. The Russell 2000 near 2,977.40 remains the laggard, although it too sits toward the upper end of its range. The magnitude was negligible. For a portfolio carrying long exposure, the direction was useful.

Energy (-1.57% | prev +4.43%)

Energy fell 1.57% after two consecutive advances, with the petroleum complex accounting for the decline. WTI lost 4.20% and Brent 5.48%, Heating Oil fell 2.99% and Ethanol 0.99%, while Natural Gas rose 2.19% and Gasoline RBOB 2.07%. Last week’s question was whether the rebound had enough persistence to become something more than an interruption of the July decline. This week supplied an answer for now. WTI near 83.44 and Brent near 88.29 have surrendered the ground that carried them beyond the origin of that decline and sit back inside it. Heating Oil near 4.2421 has slipped from the upper end of its range. Two weeks of recovery did not become three. Natural Gas near 2.8810 has posted a second consecutive gain and lifted from the lows of a decline running since February, but the larger structure remains intact. Ethanol near 2.0100 continues the slow climb traced since spring.

Metals (-0.72% | prev +4.33%)

Metals fell 0.72% with four of five contracts lower. Silver lost 3.63%, Gold 3.22%, Platinum 2.18% and Copper 0.41%, while Palladium rose 5.83%. Last week’s report noted that the recovery in Gold, Silver and Platinum had not yet cleared the February highs. It still has not. Gold near 4,504.10, Silver near 67.09 and Platinum near 1,833.50 all turned lower before recovering those levels, leaving the declines from February as the dominant structure. Palladium near 1,446.03 is the exception, adding a second consecutive gain as it climbs from its lows. Copper near 6.64 fell only marginally and continues to hold the firmest upward structure in the sector. This is a useful reminder of why weekly percentage moves can mislead. A 0.72% sector decline built from established downtrends resuming can matter more to a positioned trend portfolio than the previous week’s 4.33% counter-trend rise.

Soft Commodities (+0.25% | prev +3.79%)

Soft Commodities gained 0.25%, an average that conceals almost everything that happened underneath it. Cocoa surged 10.18% and Cotton added 3.43%, while Orange Juice fell 6.18%, Coffee 3.04%, Lumber 2.63% and Sugar 0.28%. Two contracts higher, four lower, and a 16.36 percentage point spread inside a sector that finished almost where it started. Cocoa near 6,636 has now risen for a second week and cleared the range that contained its rebound, although the decline from last year’s highs still dominates the chart. Cotton near 91.46 continues the climb that began in June and holds the firmest structure in the sector. Sugar near 17.56 paused after reaching the highest level on its chart and gave back very little. Orange Juice near 145.30 resumed its fall toward the lower end of its range, while Coffee near 312.60 turned lower again inside the decline running since spring. A week ago the sector moved together. This week it scattered.

Grains (+5.63% | prev +1.97%)

Grains gained 5.63% with all eight contracts higher, a third consecutive advance and the largest weekly gain produced by any multi-contract sector in this report’s recent record. Wheat led at 12.12%, followed by Oats at 9.02%, Soybean Meal at 6.86%, Corn at 5.51%, Soybeans at 3.91%, Canola at 3.08%, Rough Rice at 2.61% and Soybean Oil at 1.91%. The important part is where they finished. Wheat near 783.50, Corn near 536.25, Oats near 373.50, Soybean Meal near 342.70, Soybeans near 1,287.75, Canola near 823 and Rough Rice near 15.58 are all at or pressing the highest levels on their charts. Only Soybean Oil near 70.71 remains inside a decline, recovering ground rather than extending a rise. A fortnight ago Grains were best described as the absence of a fall. Last week several contracts began pressing chart highs. Now seven of eight are doing it together. This was the one place on the board where participation, amplitude and persistence all lined up, and very likely where much of the week’s trend-following return was earned.

Meats (-1.26% | prev -0.84%)

Meats fell 1.26%, a fifth consecutive decline, although the internal picture loosened for the first time in three weeks. Live Cattle lost 2.85% and Feeder Cattle 2.20%, while Lean Hogs rose 1.27%. Live Cattle near 211.83 and Feeder Cattle near 316.75 both extended to fresh lows for the move and continue the sustained downward slopes traced since spring. Lean Hogs near 81.90 interrupted its own decline without changing the larger shape. This remains one of the least dramatic sectors on the board and one of the most useful. Five weeks of decline, with two of three contracts still pushing to new lows, is exactly the sort of move a systematic trend position is built to hold. It does not need a headline to matter.

Bonds (+0.04% | prev -0.15%)

Bonds edged up 0.04%, which after two small declines amounts to a third consecutive week of almost nothing. The 30 Year Bond gained 0.75%, while the 10 Year Note fell 0.14%, the 2 Year Note 0.18% and the 5 Year Note 0.26%. The long end was the only positive point on the curve, giving the complex a fourth distinct configuration in four weeks. The charts offer little more. The 30 Year Bond near 109.63, 10 Year Note near 108.11, 5 Year Note near 105.95 and 2 Year Note near 102.76 all sit toward the lower end of the ranges traced through spring and summer, with the shorter maturities closest to their lows. Bonds have now spent a month contributing neither return nor much information.

Currencies (-0.67% | prev +0.80%)

Currencies fell 0.67% as the US Dollar Index rose 0.94% and every other cross in the basket declined. NZD lost 1.27%, CHF 1.15%, CAD 1.08%, EUR 0.90%, GBP 0.89%, JPY 0.75% and AUD 0.26%. It was last week’s configuration with the sign reversed: one common factor moving seven markets together, this time through dollar strength rather than weakness. That coordination is more interesting than the direction. The Dollar Index near 99.63 has recovered most of the previous week’s fall but remains inside the range that has contained it all year. EUR near 1.1590, GBP near 1.3534, CAD near 0.7196 and NZD near 0.5916 are similarly range bound. AUD near 0.7161 lost the least and retains the firmest structure in the basket, while JPY near 0.6254 remains the weakest. Two coordinated weeks pointing in opposite directions do not make a trend. They do tell us the basket has begun responding to one common force rather than eight separate stories.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX fell 3.24%, a sixth consecutive weekly decline, and near 16.90 sits in the lower half of its summer range and close to this year’s lows. This week the usual relationship reappeared: the VIX fell while five of seven Equity Indices rose. Bitcoin eased 1.64% to near 77,930, surrendering only a small part of the previous week’s 21.86% surge. That surge was the most expensive single counter-trend event for a positioned portfolio last week. Its partial reversal this week is a useful reminder that the size of a move tells us nothing about its persistence. The decline from above 120,000 remains the dominant feature of Bitcoin’s chart.

Top Movers

The two halves of the table are far closer in size than they were last week, when the gains reached 21.86% and the largest decline was only 4.08%. This week the five largest gains range from 12.12% to 5.83%, while the five largest declines range from 6.18% to 3.24%. But composition matters more than symmetry. Three of the five gainers are Grains contracts extending advances into chart highs. Palladium is in a second week of climbing from its lows, while Cocoa is rebounding inside a longer decline. The downside tells the more useful story. Brent, WTI and Silver were all among last week’s five largest gainers, Orange Juice rose 4.25% alongside them, and all four have now resumed the falls those moves interrupted. The VIX is in a sixth week of decline. Of the ten largest moves on the board, eight extended a structure already in place. Last week that count was three.

Portfolio View

The Barometer added 5 points to reach 55% and the SG Trend Index improved for a third week to +9.69% year to date. Both moved in the same direction, and the Barometer reached the threshold that designates a favourable environment for the first time in the current sequence. It did so during the week with the least movement. That is the point. Grains put all eight contracts higher, with seven at or near chart highs. Gold, Silver, Platinum, Brent, WTI and Orange Juice resumed declines interrupted for one week. Meats fell for a fifth week and the VIX for a sixth. Last week was loud and largely counter-trend, yet the SG Trend Index improved by only 0.32 percentage points. This week was quiet and much more aligned with existing structure, and it improved by 0.57. Less happened. More of what happened mattered.

Final Reflections

The strongest trend reading of the sequence arrived in its quietest week. The Barometer rose 5 points to 55%, while the SG Trend Index improved from +9.12% to +9.69% year to date. Breadth, average movement and the spread between best and worst all fell sharply at the same time. That is not an anomaly to explain away. It is the distinction between movement and persistence made visible.

Meats made the point more plainly than any indicator. A fifth week of decline, two of three contracts pushing to new lows, and not a single headline figure in sight. It has been one of the least dramatic sectors on the board for more than a month and one of the most useful for just as long. Spectacle and usefulness are different things. Trend following gets paid for the second.

1. The smallest week produced the highest Barometer reading. That tells us what the Barometer is actually measuring.

The five-week sequence now reads 30, 34, 39, 50 and 55. The Barometer has recovered the 22 points lost in late July and moved beyond the 52% reading that preceded the fall. Its 10-day rate of change remains positive, although it has slowed to Rising Weakly. Last week’s 50% sat alongside a great deal of counter-trend movement. This week’s 55% sits alongside Grains at chart highs, Metals and Energy resuming established declines, and Meats extending a five-week fall. Far less movement, but much more of it persistent. This time the return figure agreed.

2. Last week’s most expensive moves became useful again without needing an equally dramatic reversal.

A week ago Bitcoin, Platinum, Silver, WTI and Brent supplied the five largest gains on the board, with four running against structures months in the making. This week Silver, WTI and Brent are among the five largest declines, Platinum has turned lower again, and Bitcoin has given back a small part of its advance. Nothing spectacular was required. The interruptions simply stopped. The grain complex did something even simpler: eight contracts advanced, seven into or near chart highs, along a direction already visible for a fortnight. The largest number on a performance table remains a poor guide to where a trend portfolio actually made or lost its money.

The week ahead is therefore less about forecasting direction than watching persistence. The Barometer sits at 55%, at the threshold of a favourable environment, with its rate of change still positive but slowing. Grains now have seven contracts at or near chart highs. Metals have returned to the February declines after a one-week interruption. The dollar has moved the entire currency basket for two consecutive weeks, albeit in opposite directions. In each case, the question is the same: does the structure persist? For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity remains directional, but not directionally biased.

---

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document is directly solely to Accredited Investors, Qualified Eligible Participants, Qualified Clients and Qualified Purchasers. No investment decision should be made until prospective investors have read the detailed information in the fund offering documents of any manager mentioned in this document. This document is furnished on a confidential basis only for the use of the recipient and only for discussion purposes and is subject to amendment This document is neither advice nor a recommendation to enter into any transaction. This document is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any security or other financial instrument. This presentation is based on information obtained from sources that TopTradersUnplugged (“TTU”) (“considers to be reliable however, TTU makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information. TTU has not independently verified third party manager or benchmark information, does not represent it as accurate, true or complete, makes no warranty, express or implied regarding it and shall not be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses relating to its adequacy, accuracy, truth, completeness or use.

All projections, valuations, and statistical analyses are provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein. Such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may use one among many alternative methodologies that produce different results accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses should not be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate prediction of future events. There is no guarantee that any targeted performance will be achieved Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone

TTU is not and does not purport to be an advisor as to legal, taxation, accounting, financial or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. The recipient should independently evaluate and judge the matters referred to herein. TTU does not provide advice or recommendations regarding an investor’s decision to allocate to funds or accounts managed by any manager (“or to maintain or sell investments in funds or accounts managed by any manager, and no fiduciary relationship under ERISA is created by the investor investing in funds or accounts managed by any manager, or through any communication between TTU and the investor

In reviewing this document, it should be understood that the past performance results of any asset class, or any investment or trading program set forth herein, are not necessarily indicative of any future results that may be achieved in connection with any transaction. Any persons subscribing for an investment must be able to bear the risks involved and must meet the suitability requirements relating to such investment. Some or all alternative investment programs discussed herein may not be suitable for certain investors This document is directed only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such investment professionals. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely upon this document.

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

This document contains simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations AND SHOULD BE VIEWED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT ACCOUNT.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM OR OTHER ASSET.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those being shown.