Trend Following: Week in Review - July 24, 2026

"Crude Extends Its Breakout and the Energy Trend Holds, Bonds and the Dollar Run Cleanly, Metals Bounce Off Their Lows, the Barometer Edges to 52% and Stays Short of Favourable, and the SG Trend Index Recovers Strongly"

This Week in Trend – 24 July 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 24 July 2026.

The question that closed last week’s edition has an answer. Energy held its breakout and led the board again at +3.51%, Crude Oil Brent adding 9.85% and Crude Oil WTI 9.21% on top of the double-digit gains posted a week earlier, while Heating Oil rose 2.85%, Gasoline RBOB stalled at +0.09% and Natural Gas eased 1.37%. The rest of the commodity complex turned up behind it: Metals rose 1.38% as Silver gained 4.58% and Copper 1.48%, Grains firmed to +1.30% with Corn up 4.38%, Soybean Meal 4.09% and Canola 3.83%, the Meats recovered to +0.72% with all three contracts higher, and Soft Commodities edged to +0.35% as Lumber rose 3.07%. The financial sectors moved the other way, and they moved together. The Equity Indices eased 0.47% in a shallow pullback, Currencies fell 0.58% as the USD index rose 0.71% and six of the seven remaining contracts declined, Bonds dropped 0.81% across the curve with the 30 Year Bond off 1.51%, and Bitcoin fell 1.71%. The VIX dropped 4.67%, unwinding the jump it had made previously. Contract-level breadth held at 23 of 49 contracts higher, 26 lower and none unchanged, identical to the prior week’s count, yet the outcome for trend followers inverted.

Inside the complex the split ran along commodity and financial lines rather than rotating between sectors. Energy carried the board for a second week, though the advance narrowed to crude: Brent and WTI ran well clear while Gasoline RBOB flattened and Natural Gas fell, where all four petroleum contracts had moved as one a week earlier. Metals turned up across four of five contracts, Silver leading at 4.58% with Copper 1.48%, Gold 1.29% and Palladium 0.06% higher and Platinum off 0.52%. Grains firmed on a top-heavy advance, Corn, Soybean Meal, Canola and Soybeans all between 3.74% and 4.38% while Oats fell 4.09%, Wheat 0.70%, Soybean Oil 0.61% and Rough Rice 0.25%. Soft Commodities split three against three, Lumber up 3.07%, Orange Juice 2.57% and Cotton 1.72% against Cocoa off 2.84%, Coffee 2.03% and Sugar 0.40%, the two contracts that had spiked hardest now fading. The Equity Indices divided by region, the DAX up 0.99% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.80% while the five US and Japanese contracts all fell, the Nasdaq 100 heaviest at 1.71%. The dollar strengthened broadly, Bonds fell in a clean gradient with the long end weakest, and the Meats recovered modestly across all three contracts.

Trend Indicators:  Barometer Edges to 52% and Holds Inside Neutral, SG Trend Index Recovers Strongly

TTU Trend Barometer: 52%, up from 50% last week, with the overall trend strength classification holding at Strong as the reading advanced 2 points and settled again in the upper part of the Neutral band, stopping short of the 55% boundary into a favourable environment for a second consecutive week. The 10-day rate of change reads Rising Weakly, up from last week’s Neutral, the near-term pace turning higher but with little force behind it. The five-week sequence now reads 55, 64, 39, 50, 52: the reading has recovered 13 points across two weeks from the 39% trough, though the second of those advances was slight, and the barometer has now spent a fortnight approaching the favourable threshold without crossing it.

The 2-point rise came as the trends already running on the board held their shape rather than as new markets joined them. Breadth did not move at all, 23 of 49 contracts higher for a second week, so the modest increase in trend strength came from persistence rather than participation. Crude extended a move already two weeks old, Bonds fell across the curve in the same gradient they have traced for weeks, the dollar strengthened against almost the whole basket, and the grains complex pushed further up ranges it has climbed since the spring. Where the prior week’s reading rose 11 points on the size of a single sector’s move, this one advanced barely at all, and what separated the two weeks was not the level of the reading but what the moves on the board did to positions already held.

The barometer measures the share of markets generating medium-to-strong trends, not the direction those trends take, so a board where 26 of 49 contracts finished lower can still lift the reading. The weekly level added 2 points to 52% and remains inside the Neutral band, while the 10-day rate of change moved to Rising Weakly from Neutral: the near-term pace has turned higher, though only marginally, and neither measure describes conditions that changed much at all.

The count of markets trending decisively rose slightly as established moves firmed rather than broke. Bonds fell across all four contracts with every one sitting in the lower part of the range it has traced through the spring and summer, the dollar rose against six of the seven crosses in the basket, and the grains complex advanced on four contracts that are pressing the top of long climbs. At 52% the level sits three points below the 55% boundary and has now stalled twice in the same region, near enough that a single strong week would carry it across and equally near to slipping back toward the middle of the band. The Rising Weakly rate of change adds little to that picture, the near-term pace turning upward without much behind it.

SG Trend Index: +1.24% month to date for July and +10.47% year to date as of 24 July. That compares with -0.95% MTD and +8.09% YTD at the prior week’s close: the year-to-date figure added roughly 2.38 percentage points over the week, and July turned from a loss of 0.95% to a gain of 1.24% inside the month, a weekly return of close to 2.2% once compounding is accounted for. The gain sat with the trends that were already held rather than the ones that turned. Crude extended a breakout that was two weeks old by the close, so the books that had rotated into energy early were carried rather than chasing, Heating Oil adding 2.85% behind it. Bonds fell across the whole curve, the dollar strengthened against six of the seven crosses in the basket, and the grains complex pushed four contracts higher together, three positions that have been running for weeks and paid again without needing to be caught. The reversals that did occur were confined to markets that had already spiked and faded, Cocoa off 2.84% and Coffee 2.03%, moves too small to offset the rest. What makes the week worth studying is that the index produced this while the barometer advanced just 2 points and never left the Neutral band. Breadth did not change at all, 23 of 49 contracts higher for a second week, and the environment reading barely moved, yet the index went from giving back roughly half a point to adding well over two. The return did not come from a better environment. It came from the trends on the board being ones a book already carried.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Indices (-0.47% | prev -2.16%)

Across the Equity Indices, the pullback shallowed and split by region, the sector easing to -0.47% after the broad 2.16% decline of a week earlier. The DAX rose 0.99% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.80%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.71%, the Nikkei 225 1.17%, the Russell 2000 1.08%, the S&P 500 0.67% and the DJIA 0.48%. Where all seven contracts had fallen together previously, five fell and two rose this time, and the declines were a fraction of their earlier size. On the weekly charts every index in the sector remains inside the uptrend it has held since the spring, the DJIA near 52,100, the S&P 500 near 7,440 and the Euro Stoxx 50 near 6,290 all sitting close to the top of their ranges, with the Nasdaq 100 near 28,300 and the Nikkei 225 near 64,400 the two that have pulled back furthest from their highs. The sector reads as a shallow consolidation inside intact uptrends rather than a turn, the European contracts recovering first while the US megacaps and Japan continue to work off the ground they had pressed.

Energy (+3.51% | prev +9.55%)

Energy led the board for a second consecutive week at +3.51%, though the advance narrowed from the uniform run of a week earlier to a move carried by crude. Crude Oil Brent rose 9.85% and Crude Oil WTI 9.21%, both extending the double-digit gains they had already posted, with Heating Oil up 2.85% and Ethanol 0.40%, while Gasoline RBOB stalled at +0.09% and Natural Gas fell 1.37%. The tight four-contract cluster of the prior week gave way to a two-speed sector, crude accelerating while the refined products lagged. On the weekly charts the breakout has held and extended: WTI has recovered to around 90 and Brent to near 99, both back into the upper portion of the range they traded before the summer decline, and Gasoline RBOB near 3.42 sits close to the top of its own range, while Natural Gas near 2.88 remains in the lower part of its. The move that last week’s edition flagged as an open question has now run for a second week and reclaimed most of the ground given up since the spring, which is the difference between a spike and a trend.

Metals (+1.38% | prev -2.36%)

Metals ranked second on the board at +1.38%, a reversal of the 2.36% decline of a week earlier, with four of five contracts higher. Silver rose 4.58%, the largest gain in the sector, with Copper up 1.48%, Gold 1.29% and Palladium 0.06%, while Platinum fell 0.52%. The weekly charts are where the sector’s headline figure needs qualifying. Gold near 4,060, Silver near 58.50, Platinum near 2,000 and Palladium near 1,250 all sit close to the lows of declines that have run since February, so this week’s gains read as bounces off the bottom of those moves rather than a turn back upward, and the precious complex would need considerably more than a single week to break the pattern it has traced for months. Copper is the exception, holding near 6.34 and close to the top of the climb it has extended through the year, the one contract in the sector where this week’s gain continued a trend rather than interrupted a decline. A strong sector average resting on counter-trend bounces is the divergence worth carrying into next week.

Soft Commodities (+0.35% | prev -3.39%)

Soft Commodities recovered to +0.35% from the 3.39% fall of a week earlier, the sector splitting three against three. Lumber rose 3.07%, Orange Juice 2.57% and Cotton 1.72%, while Cocoa fell 2.84%, Coffee 2.03% and Sugar 0.40%. The two contracts that had produced the sector’s sharpest moves in either direction continued to unwind, Cocoa easing for a second week after its spike and Coffee alongside it. On the weekly charts Lumber near 654 sits close to the top of the steady climb it has built since the winter, the one contract in the sector holding a sustained trend, while Cocoa near 5,330 and Coffee near 314 are both fading spikes that had carried them well off their lows, and Orange Juice near 143 continues to sit at the bottom of the long decline it has traced all year, its 2.57% gain a small lift off the floor rather than a recovery. Cotton near 79.90 has worked back into the middle of its range. The sector average turned positive, but it rests on one trend and several partial retracements.

Grains (+1.30% | prev +1.92%)

Grains firmed to +1.30% on a top-heavy advance, four contracts running well clear while four eased. Corn rose 4.38%, Soybean Meal 4.09%, Canola 3.83% and Soybeans 3.74%, a tight cluster at the top, while Oats fell 4.09%, Wheat 0.70%, Soybean Oil 0.61% and Rough Rice 0.25%. The split of a week earlier persisted but the leaders changed hands, Corn and the soy complex taking over from Wheat and Soybean Oil while Oats extended its decline for a second week. The weekly charts show the complex in the firmest structural shape on the board: Canola near 824 has pushed to the top of a climb that has run since the winter, Soybeans near 1,239 and Soybean Meal near 331 sit close to their highs, Rough Rice near 14.00 is pressing the top of its range, and Corn near 464 has recovered most of the pullback it made in June. Only Oats near 328 is working lower, well off the peak it made in the spring. This is a sector where the weekly percentages and the chart structure agree, which is not true of Metals this week.

Meats (+0.72% | prev -1.45%)

The Meats turned up to +0.72% with all three contracts higher, ending the run of declines that had deepened over recent weeks. Live Cattle rose 0.82%, Lean Hogs 0.71% and Feeder Cattle 0.62%, an unusually even spread after weeks in which the cattle side and the hogs had moved apart. The weekly charts keep the sector inside the pullback it has been working through since the spring: Live Cattle near 222.60 and Feeder Cattle near 342 both sit well below the highs they made in May, and Lean Hogs near 89.00 has come off its own peak, so the three small gains read as a pause in a decline rather than the start of a recovery. What has changed is the direction of agreement, the split that ran through the sector for weeks closing as all three contracts turned up together, though the size of the moves leaves the longer pattern intact.

Bonds (-0.81% | prev +0.16%)

Bonds fell across the curve, giving back the small recovery of a week earlier with the long end weakest. The 30 Year Bond dropped 1.51%, the 10 Year Note 0.86%, the 5 Year Note 0.59% and the 2 Year Note 0.27%, a clean gradient running from the long end to the front and the sector average at -0.81%. The shape is the mirror of the recovery it followed, and larger: where the curve had firmed by 0.16% on average, it fell by five times that this time. The weekly charts put all four contracts at or near the lows of the ranges they have traced through the spring and summer, the 30 Year Bond near 109.80, the 10 Year Note near 108.30, the 5 Year Note near 106.10 and the 2 Year Note near 102.70, so this week’s decline continued an established move rather than starting one. Market pricing reflected a return to the rate path that had been in place before the prior week’s pause. Of every sector on the board this week, Bonds produced the most orderly move, four contracts falling in strict order of duration.

Currencies (-0.58% | prev +0.33%)

The basket weakened as the US dollar strengthened against almost all of it, reversing the soft turn of a week earlier. The USD index rose 0.71% while CHF fell 1.38%, GBP 0.96%, NZD 0.92%, JPY 0.89%, CAD 0.63% and EUR 0.59%, with AUD flat at +0.01%, leaving the sector average at -0.58%. The commodity dollars that had led the gains previously turned lower, CAD easing despite the continued energy advance, and the yen fell for a second week. The weekly charts show the USD index near 101.30 and close to the top of the climb it has built since the spring, with EUR near 1.1395, JPY near 0.6129, CHF near 1.2291 and CAD near 0.7116 all at or near the lows of their own ranges, so the move reads as a broad dollar trend rather than a rotation within the basket. AUD near 0.6975 is the one cross still holding close to its highs. This is among the more established trends on the board, and it paid again this week without needing to be caught.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX dropped 4.67% as implied volatility fell back, unwinding most of the 10.91% jump it had made a week earlier and returning toward the lower part of the range it has held through the summer, the weekly chart showing it near 19.25 after the spike faded. The move ran alongside the shallow pullback in the Equity Indices rather than against it, volatility easing while the indices consolidated inside their uptrends. Bitcoin fell 1.71%, reversing the gain it had posted previously and sitting near 64,070 on the weekly chart, close to the lows of the decline it has traced from its highs. Where Bitcoin had held firm while the Equity Indices fell a week earlier, it fell this time while they steadied, continuing to trade on its own footing rather than tracking broad risk appetite in either direction.

Top Movers

The two lists are narrower than a week earlier and both are drawn from a smaller set of sectors. The upside runs Energy, Metals, Grains: Crude Oil Brent and Crude Oil WTI taking the top two places with the only gains above 5% on the board, Silver third, and Corn and Soybean Meal filling out the list from the grains complex. The downside is led by the VIX unwinding its spike, Oats extending a decline now into its second week, Cocoa and Coffee fading the moves that had carried them off their lows, and the Nasdaq 100 falling 1.71%, a figure Bitcoin matched exactly. Crude Oil Brent’s 9.85% gain was the largest single move on the board this week, though it is a little over half the 15.91% it posted a week earlier, and the VIX’s 4.67% drop led the downside at less than half the size of the heaviest decline previously. The shape of the week sits in that compression: no move on either list reached double digits, and the board resolved into a set of smaller, more coherent trends rather than the violent rotations of recent weeks.

Portfolio View

The week did not rotate, and that is the whole of the story. The reminder in it is the one that recurs: portfolio returns depend less on how many markets trend than on whether the trends already held survive. This week they did, and the arithmetic makes the point plainly. Contract-level breadth was identical to a week earlier, 23 of 49 contracts higher against 26 lower, and the barometer advanced just 2 points without leaving the Neutral band, yet the SG Trend Index moved from giving back roughly half a percentage point to adding well over two. Neither the number of markets participating nor the strength of the environment they were trending in changed much at all. What changed was that the moves on the board were continuations of positions already carried rather than reversals against them. Crude extended a breakout into its second week, Bonds fell across the curve in the same gradient they have traced for weeks, the dollar strengthened against six of the seven crosses, and the grains complex pushed four contracts higher up ranges it has climbed since the spring. The clearest directional contributor was persistence itself: the same breadth reading produced opposite outcomes in consecutive weeks because in one the trends broke and in the other they held. A book positioned along the energy advance, short the curve and long the dollar needed to do nothing at all this week to be paid.

Final Reflections

The defining feature of the week was how little the environment readings moved and how much the returns did. The TTU Barometer advanced 2 points to 52%, holding in the upper part of the Neutral band and stopping short of the 55% boundary for a second consecutive week. Contract-level breadth did not move at all, holding at 23 of 49 contracts higher against 26 lower, none unchanged. Against that, the SG Trend Index added roughly 2.38 percentage points to reach +10.47% year to date, and July turned from -0.95% to +1.24% inside the month, a weekly gain of close to 2.2% set against a year-to-date figure of 10.47%. The environment barely changed. The outcome changed completely.

A week earlier a barometer reading in much the same place sat alongside the reversals that cost; this week it sat alongside the continuations that paid, and the books carrying them added to the year’s gain without having to catch anything new.

1. The environment reading barely moved and breadth did not move at all, yet the week paid. What separated it from the one before was the age of the trends on the board, not the strength of the environment.

The five-week sequence (55, 64, 39, 50, 52) advanced 2 points this week, a second consecutive rise that leaves the reading in the upper part of the Neutral band and short of the 55% boundary it has now approached twice without crossing. Breadth did not move at all, 23 of 49 contracts higher for a second week. Between them these two figures describe an environment that was, on any reading, close to unchanged. The returns were not. The SG Trend Index went from giving back roughly half a percentage point to adding well over two, a swing of nearly three points against an environment that shifted by two on a scale of a hundred. That gap isolates the cause. The count of markets trending decisively rose slightly because existing moves firmed and lengthened, not because new markets joined them: crude ran into its second week, Bonds fell across all four contracts in strict order of duration, the dollar strengthened against almost the entire basket, and four grains contracts advanced together. The 10-day rate of change reads Rising Weakly, up from the prior week’s Neutral, so the near-term pace has turned higher without much force behind it. The lesson is not that trend strength readings carry no information. It is that they describe how many markets are moving decisively and say nothing at all about whether those markets are the ones a book is already holding. This week they were, and that was the whole of the difference.

2. Metals produced the week’s divergence, ranking second on the board while the precious complex bounced at the lows of declines that remain intact.

Metals rose 1.38%, the second strongest sector average, with Silver up 4.58% as the third largest gain on the board. The weekly charts read differently. Gold near 4,060, Silver near 58.50, Platinum near 2,000 and Palladium near 1,250 all sit close to the lows of declines that have run since February, so the sector’s gains this week came from counter-trend bounces rather than trends turning back upward. Copper is the exception, holding near 6.34 and close to the top of a climb it has extended through the year, the one contract in the sector where the weekly figure and the chart structure agree. The distinction matters because a sector average cannot tell a bounce from a continuation, and a book positioned short the precious metals would have given ground this week without its trends being threatened. Grains offer the contrast: four contracts advancing at or near the top of long climbs, weekly percentages and chart structure pointing the same way. Where the two agree, the move is likely to be captured; where they diverge, the sector average is describing noise inside a trend rather than the trend itself.

One question frames the week ahead: Can the board hold the shape it found this week, with crude, the curve, the dollar and the grains all running in the direction they were already travelling, or does the bounce in the precious metals prove the leading edge of a broader turn against the positions that have just been paid? The answer will say less about where prices travel than about whether a market that has finally stopped rotating can stay still long enough for the trends to compound.

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List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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