Trend Following - Week in Review - May 9, 2025

“When the forest goes quiet, it's not peace—it's a warning.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend-following.

After April’s sharp volatility and tentative recovery, the first week of May offered a quieter, more measured tone. Markets didn’t surge—but they didn’t stumble either. Instead, we saw a cautious continuation of rebalancing, with trend signals beginning to stabilize.

The environment remains ambiguous, but systems are adjusting—seeking clarity not in the noise, but in the underlying patterns.

“Divergence Returns—With Bite”

The second week of May brought more churn than clarity.

Energy markets lit up. Metals bounced. But softs cracked further, and grains followed them lower. Equities held modestly firm—but the leadership looked different.

This wasn’t a broad-based rally or a broad-based retreat. It was a patchwork—and trend systems are feeling every stitch.

SG Trend Index Performance

• MTD (as of May 8): -1.29%
• YTD: -10.49%
  (Last week MTD: -0.40% | YTD: -9.69%)

The SG Trend Index slipped further into drawdown territory. What looked like stabilization last week has proven short-lived, with losses resuming across several sectors. Momentum has not vanished—but it’s offering little shelter from this trendless churn.

TTU Trend Barometer: 36% – Moderately Weak

• Last week: 48%
• 10-day rate-of-change: Falling Moderately

The TTU Trend Barometer continued its slide, falling from 48% to 36%—below the neutral threshold. Trend strength has decayed again, confirming what systems already feel: a weakening trend environment that lacks sustained direction across most markets.

"Below 40% is cold. And this week? The thermometer dropped."

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Asset Class	This Week	Last Week	Δ
Volatility Index	-2.37%	-3.82%	↑ less decline
Grains	-1.32%	+0.88%	↓ reversal
Meats	+0.38%	+2.14%	↓ slowing
Bonds	-0.33%	+0.57%	↓ reversal
Energy	+3.04%	-1.01%	↑ sharp rebound
Metals	+2.22%	-1.45%	↑ reversal
Soft Commodities	-0.98%	-2.81%	↑ lesser pullback
Equity Index	+0.45%	+3.21%	↓ tapering
Currency	-0.35%	-0.15%	↓ slight weakening

This week’s standout shifts came from Energy and Metals, which flipped sharply from negative to positive momentum. Meanwhile, Grains, Meats, and Bonds reversed last week’s gains. Volatility continued to fall—but with diminishing payoff potential.

Asset Class Breakdown – Fractured Terrain

• Energy: +3.04% (Prev: -1.01%): A sharp turnaround. Crude oil and natural gas delivered strong moves, finally providing clean breakouts after weeks of whipsawing.

• Metals: +2.22% (Prev: -1.45%): Gold, platinum, and silver rallied, restoring life to long trades that looked under threat just one week ago.

• Equities: +0.45% (Prev: +3.21%): Gains slowed. The tech-led bounce moderated, and leadership rotated into broader, more cyclical names.

• Soft Commodities: -0.98% (Prev: -2.81%): Still retreating, though the selloff softened. Cocoa, coffee, and sugar are giving up their trend-leading status.

• Grains: -1.32% (Prev: +0.88%): A clean reversal. Corn and wheat broke lower, dragging down systems leaning long.

• Meats: +0.38% (Prev: +2.14%): Slower progress. Livestock trades that worked for weeks are showing signs of fading momentum.

• Bonds: -0.33% (Prev: +0.57%): Another week, another direction. Bond markets remain erratic—tough terrain for trend systems.

• Currencies: -0.35% (Prev: -0.15%): FX drifted further into stasis. There’s little conviction in the majors right now.

• Volatility Index: -2.37% (Prev: -3.82%): Volatility keeps fading—but the edge is gone. Short-vol profits are behind us, and trend followers are now watching for the next catalyst.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Gains

• Crude Oil (WTI): +4.75% – Breakout move after prior chop. Energy bulls finally got paid.
• Gasoline RBOB / Nat Gas / Brent Crude: +4.52%, +4.33%, +4.23% – Broad-based surge across the energy complex.
• Heating Oil: +3.93% – Momentum returned to refined fuels.
• Cocoa / Sugar / Platinum: +3.64%, +3.6%, +3.52% – Soft commodities made a brief comeback—but may still be in transition.
• Gold / Silver: +2.65%, +1.93% – Precious metals bounced. Systems positioned long saw moderate gains.

Biggest Market Declines

• Orange Juice: -10.17% – The outlier breaks. After a parabolic run, OJ finally got squeezed.
• Corn / Wheat / Ethanol: -4.1%, -4.05%, -3.5% – Grains cratered. Long trades unwound aggressively.
• VIX: -2.37% – Continued calm. Short-vol trades are out of juice.
• Softs & FX–Cotton (-2.47%), NZD (-0.59%), AUD (-0.51%) – Rotation into metals and energy came at the expense of prior leaders.

Portfolio View - What the Moves Meant for Systems

• Energy & Metals: The stars of the week. Trend followers positioned long enjoyed clear signals and solid gains.
• Grains & Softs: Under pressure. A reversal from prior strength puts these sectors back into uncertainty.
• Equities: Still up but losing steam. The sharp April rally has cooled into slower movement.
• Volatility: Eased again. Calm is no longer your friend—it’s your constraint.
• Currencies & Bonds: Dead weight. Few trends, and fewer payoffs.

Final Reflections – A Fog with Flashes

We’re not in a quiet market—but we’re not in a coherent one either.

This week revealed what happens in the in-between: where some trends reignite while others die quickly. Where energy booms, and grains bust. Where volatility is low, but direction isn’t obvious.

The SG Trend Index weakened again. The TTU Trend Barometer fell to 36%, dipping below neutral. Trend followers aren’t out of the game—but the plays are fewer, the edges thinner.

Systems must now walk with care. It’s not about pouncing—it’s about positioning. Because while this week lit a few fires, most of the terrain remains shrouded in fog.

And in fog, clarity doesn’t shout.

It whispers.

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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