Trend Following - Week in Review - November 28, 2025

“When the Tide Rebounds”

This Week in Trend – 28 November 2025

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the shifting structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following.
This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday 28 November 2025.

Markets staged a broad relief rally after last week’s turbulence. Metals surged, equities climbed, crypto rebounded and volatility collapsed. The tone shifted from stress to recovery. Yet the underlying trend structure did not strengthen and the barometer slipped again. The move reflects rotation rather than expansion, with opportunities concentrated instead of broad based.

One week ago the world looked very different. Markets were under pressure, volatility had surged and almost every major asset class was moving lower together. This week delivered the mirror image. A broad relief rally swept through metals, equities, crypto and parts of the agricultural complex, while volatility collapsed and energy stabilised. It was a rotation out of fear and into risk, and the tape carried a strong sense of recovery.

Yet beneath the surface, the trend environment did not strengthen. The TTU Trend Barometer remains neutral at 48 percent. This tells a different story from the price action. Trends exist, but they are not broadening. They are rotating rather than expanding. Systems saw profits in metals, crypto and equity indices, but the underlying opportunity set remains fragile.

The tension between price strength and weak structure defines this week’s landscape.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month to date (as of Nov 28): +0.92 percent
• Year to date: +0.02 percent
• Previous week: +0.06 percent MTD | −0.83 percent YTD

The SG Trend Index regained positive territory for the month and clawed back losses for the year. This lift was driven by powerful moves in precious metals, a broad rebound in equity indices and stronger flows in parts of the grains and meats complex. Bitcoin also added strong upward pressure after last week’s weakness.

The most interesting observation is the contrast with last week. The index improved, but not dramatically. This reflects the rotation like nature of the week. Many existing trends strengthened slightly, but few new ones emerged and several sectors remained noisy. The SG Trend Index now sits almost exactly flat for the year, a fitting representation of a market defined by alternating bursts of strength and stress.

TTU Trend Barometer

• Current reading: 48 percent – Neutral, easing slightly
• Previous reading: 48 percent
• 10 day rate of change: Falling weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer remains at 48 percent. Despite the broad recovery in prices, the underlying trend environment has not improved. Markets moved, but they did not align. Metals carried strong upside momentum and crypto delivered a sharp rebound. Equities climbed across the board. But outside these clusters, trend strength thinned and more markets sat in corrective or neutral states.

A barometer at 48 percent signals a balanced but delicate environment. Systems can find opportunities, but participation is narrow and the setup has not yet shifted into a broadly favourable regime.

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

• Volatility Index (−15.56 percent | prev +20.26 percent)
Volatility collapsed this week, reversing almost all of last week’s surge. The sharp decline in VIX signals a rapid shift away from defensive positioning. This drop supported risk assets, yet the fall in volatility also reflects how reactive and jumpy the current regime has become.

• Crypto (+7.60 percent | prev −9.66 percent)
Crypto delivered one of the strongest rebounds across the futures universe. Bitcoin jumped more than seven percent and reversed a large part of last week’s breakdown. Despite this surge, the medium term trend remains down. The move was powerful but corrective.

• Metals (+7.20 percent | prev −1.95 percent)
Metals were the clear stars of the week. Silver and platinum surged, gold advanced solidly and copper firmed. This sector remains one of the strongest structural trends and continues to offer clean opportunity for systematic long exposure.

• Soft Commodities (+4.03 percent | prev −3.42 percent)
Softs delivered a meaningful bounce after weeks of heavy liquidation. Cocoa, orange juice and sugar all moved higher, although the medium term structure is still dominated by downtrends. The rally eased pressure but did not reverse the broader declines.

• Equity Index (+3.71 percent | prev −2.33 percent)
Equities rallied across all major regions. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, DAX, Nikkei and Russell 2000 all posted solid gains. Despite last week’s deterioration, equity trends remain intact on a longer horizon, although they have become more volatile and less predictable.

• Meats (+2.79 percent | prev −1.88 percent)
Meats showed broad strength, with feeder cattle and live cattle leading. This helped stabilise an otherwise choppy part of the agricultural complex.

• Energy (+1.02 percent | prev −2.73 percent)
Energy stabilised but remained mixed. Crude oil held near recent lows, gasoline remained soft and heating oil drifted. Natural gas was the standout, rallying with strong momentum.

• Grains (+0.91 percent | prev −0.90 percent)
Grains delivered a mild positive week. Wheat was soft but soybeans, soybean oil and oats moved higher. The sector remains rotational rather than trending.

• Currencies (+0.77 percent | prev −0.84 percent)
FX saw modest strength in NZD, CAD and AUD. USD slipped, reflecting the broader risk on tone.

• Bonds (+0.15 percent | prev +0.46 percent)
Bonds held steady. Yields edged slightly lower, but the structure remains uneven across the curve.

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Summary

A complete reversal from last week. Metals, crypto, equities and softs all rallied, while the VIX fell more than fifteen percent. Energy stabilised, grains improved modestly and bonds held steady. The week produced a sea of blue across the asset class map, driven by a strong shift back into risk.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Silver +12.87 percent – Powerful Trend Extension
  Silver delivered the strongest move in the futures universe, breaking decisively higher and extending an already impressive multi-month uptrend.
• Platinum +10.46 percent – Momentum Reasserted
  Platinum followed silver with double-digit gains, reinforcing the metals complex as the strongest structural theme across trend portfolios.
• Orange Juice +8.74 percent – Relief Rally After Heavy Declines
  OJ finally bounced after months of intense selling. The move was sharp but remains countertrend. The downtrend is not broken.
• Bitcoin +7.60 percent – Short Term Rebound
  Bitcoin’s rally recovered a portion of its earlier breakdown. The medium-term trend is still weak, yet the week’s price action provided significant volatility for active models.
• Cocoa +7.58 percent – Oversold Bounce
  Cocoa surged almost nine percent, driven by short covering after a steep decline. Structural downtrend remains intact.

Top Losers

• VIX −15.56 percent – Volatility Fully Retraces
  The VIX fell sharply and gave back last week’s entire spike. This move set the tone for risk appetite across markets.
• Heating Oil −4.53 percent – Energy Remains Pressured
  Heating oil continued its downward slide. The complex remains one of the more challenging sectors for trend alignment.
• Rough Rice −3.30 percent – Agricultural Weakness Persists
  Rice slipped again and remains one of the weaker structures in the grain complex.
• USD −0.68 percent – Safe Haven Bid Unwinds
  The dollar softened as investors rotated back into risk assets.

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Summary

Leaders were dominated by metals and agricultural rebounds. Bitcoin added strong momentum. On the downside, volatility collapsed and energy remained uneven.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

Equities

Stock indices moved higher across all major regions. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Nikkei and DAX all advanced in a tight pattern. Despite last week’s stress, equities remain in broad uptrends, although the volatility of the past month has forced systems to moderate their long exposure. Stops have tightened and position sizes have become more measured. The market is trending upward but remains sensitive to rotations.

Metals

Metals were the primary engine of performance this week. Silver and platinum surged, gold added steady gains and copper remained firm. Systems are well aligned with these trends, with long exposure generating positive contribution. The sector continues to be one of the cleanest trend opportunities in the entire futures landscape.

Energy

Energy stabilised but remains muddled. Crude oil is still near year lows and gasoline is under pressure. Natural gas delivered strong upside momentum, yet the broader complex lacks unified direction. Trend exposure remains light or rotational.

Crypto

Crypto rebounded sharply and regained some of last week’s heavy losses. Bitcoin’s rally was strong but corrective. Systematic exposure remains cautious. Many models remain flat or lightly long.

Soft Commodities and Meats

Softs showed a relief rally, but the medium term remains dominated by declining trends in cocoa, sugar and orange juice. Meats were stronger, with feeder cattle and live cattle providing some upside contribution. Exposure remains selective.

Rates and FX

Fixed income was stable. The curve continues to chop sideways and long term trends remain uncertain. FX saw a mild rotation into risk currencies such as NZD and AUD. Trend exposure in currencies is low and remains diversified rather than directional.

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Summary

Trend portfolios benefited from long exposure in metals and from the rebound in equities and crypto. Soft commodities produced mixed signals and energy remained uneven. Rates and FX contributed little. Systems remained selective and cautious given the weaker underlying structure, despite the strong week of price action.

Final Reflections – When the Tide Rebounds

This week delivered relief and recovery across global markets, yet the deeper structure remains fragile. Price strength and trend strength diverged. Metals continue to anchor the opportunity set, while other sectors cycle through rotation. Systems must remain patient and disciplined as markets move through another transitional phase where momentum exists but alignment does not.

The fourth week of November delivered a broad recovery across global markets. Metals led decisively, crypto rebounded strongly, equities marched higher and volatility collapsed. The price action looked the opposite of last week and created a temporary sense of relief.

Yet the deeper picture is more complex.

The TTU Trend Barometer held at 48 percent. This shows that trend conditions have not improved. They have rotated. They have strengthened in some pockets and faded in others. Systems can still find opportunities, but the environment is fragile and selective rather than broad and powerful.

Three observations sum up the week:

1. Trend strength narrowed rather than broadened.
   Price action was strong, but trend structure weakened. This signals rotation rather than expansion.
2. Metals remain the structural anchor.
   They continue to offer the cleanest long trends across the futures universe.
3. Volatility collapsed, but risk does not feel resolved.
   The break lower in VIX suggests a shift in sentiment, yet the underlying market structure remains unsettled.

For now, the tide has rebounded, but not all currents are flowing in the same direction. Trend followers continue to rely on discipline, diversification and selective exposure as markets work through another transition phase in a complex and adaptive regime.

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List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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