Trend Following: Week in Review - September 4, 2026

“Energy Sweeps the Board as Returns Catch Up with Trend Strength”

This Week in Trend – 4 September 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, our weekly examination of the evolving structure of global futures markets and what that structure means for systematic trend followers. This edition covers market conditions through the US close on Friday, 4 September 2026.

This was a week in which the same amount of trend did a great deal more work. Energy gained 5.95% with all six contracts higher. Crude Oil WTI rose 9.69% and Crude Oil Brent 9.28%, the two largest advances on the board, followed by Heating Oil at 6.85% and Gasoline RBOB at 5.39%. Breadth barely moved for it, improving only from 21 of 49 contracts higher to 24, with 24 lower and the S&P 500 finishing exactly where it started. Elsewhere Bitcoin added 3.02%, Meats 0.74% after five consecutive weeks lower, and Currencies 0.32%. The declines were more numerous but far smaller. Bonds fell 0.30%, Equity Indices 0.50%, Grains 0.67% after last week’s sweep, Soft Commodities 0.91%, Metals 1.37% for a second consecutive week and the VIX 3.95% for a seventh. The average move across the board rose from 0.43% to 2.24%, more than five times the previous week, while the spread between best and worst narrowed from 18.30 percentage points to 16.61.

Last week’s report left three questions open. Could Grains hold seven contracts at or near chart highs? Would Metals continue the February declines they had just resumed? And would the dollar move the entire currency basket for a third consecutive week? The answers were mostly, yes and no. Grains fell 0.67% with four of eight contracts lower, and Wheat gave back 6.38% of the 12.12% it had added a week earlier, although the rest of the complex held its levels. Metals fell for a second week with four of five contracts lower. The currency basket scattered, four higher and four lower, after two weeks of moving as a single bloc. The development none of those questions anticipated came from Energy, which had spent the previous week surrendering its rebound and this week produced the largest gain any multi-contract sector has recorded in the current sequence.

Trend Indicators: Barometer Holds at 55% and the Rate of Change Strengthens, SG Trend Index Posts the Largest Weekly Gain of the Sequence

TTU Trend Barometer: 55%, unchanged from last week. The reading holds at the 55% mark that separates Neutral from a favourable environment, and the overall classification is again given as Strong. This is the first week in the current sequence that the reading has not risen, and it follows four consecutive advances. The 10-day rate of change has strengthened rather than faded, moving back to Rising Moderately after slowing to Rising Weakly a week ago. The five-week sequence now stands at 34, 39, 50, 55 and 55. All 25 points gained since the late July low have been held, and the reading still sits 3 points above the 52% that preceded that collapse.

Here is the interesting part, and it sits underneath a number that did not move. Over the three weeks in which the Barometer climbed 21 points to reach 55%, the SG Trend Index added 2.59 percentage points in total. This week the Barometer added nothing at all and the index added 2.04, close to as much as those three weeks combined. The reading stopped rising at precisely the point the return figure caught up with it.

There is no contradiction in that. The Barometer measures how widely persistence is distributed. The return figure measures what that persistence paid. For four weeks those two things moved apart, with distribution improving much faster than payment followed. This week they converged. Energy supplied five of the ten largest gains on the board, Bonds fell across all four maturities, Coffee extended a fall running since spring and the VIX declined for a seventh week. Six markets can travel enormous distances without changing how widely persistence is spread across forty-nine, which is why the reading held rather than rose. What they can do is pay.

The sector data explains why the reading held rather than moving in either direction. Working against it, Grains fell 0.67% with four of eight contracts lower after a week in which all eight rose, Currencies produced four gains and four declines after two weeks of coordinated movement, and Equity Indices turned lower with four of seven contracts down and the DAX retreating 2.05% from the chart high it reached a week earlier. Three sources of persistence weakened at once. Working for it, Energy put all six contracts higher, Bonds fell across all four maturities with the decline growing steadily with maturity, Metals fell for a second week with four of five lower, Coffee extended the fall it has traced since spring and the VIX declined for a seventh week. Persistence left some parts of the board and arrived in others. At 55%, the Barometer is describing an environment that changed its composition without changing its size.

SG Trend Index: +0.59% month to date for September and +11.73% year to date as of 4 September. August has closed and the year-to-date figure has risen from +9.69% to +11.73%, a fourth consecutive weekly advance and a gain of 2.04 percentage points, the largest weekly improvement in the sequence this report has tracked. Set against the Barometer, the pattern is now hard to miss. Three weeks ago a 5 point rise coincided with roughly 1.70 percentage points of year-to-date improvement. Two weeks ago an 11 point rise coincided with only 0.32. Last week a 5 point rise coincided with 0.57. This week the Barometer did not move at all and the index added 2.04. Trend strength describes the persistence available. Return records the persistence a portfolio was actually positioned to capture, and positions take time to establish before they pay.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Indices (-0.50% | prev +0.23%)

Equity Indices fell 0.50% after a single week higher, with four of seven contracts lower, two higher and one unchanged. The DAX lost 2.05% and Euro Stoxx 50 1.52%, while the DJIA fell 0.27% and the Russell 2000 0.03%. The Nasdaq 100 added 0.25% and the Nikkei 225 0.10%, and the S&P 500 finished exactly where it started. The European pair supplied almost the entire decline. The DAX near 26,082 has stepped back from the chart high it reached a week earlier, and Euro Stoxx 50 near 6,405 has slipped from the upper end of its range. The American indices barely moved at all. The S&P 500 near 7,715, Nasdaq 100 near 29,523, DJIA near 53,275 and Russell 2000 near 2,974 all finished within a few tenths of a percent of last week’s levels and remain close to recent peaks. The Nikkei 225 near 65,799 is unchanged in practice and still well above the level from which its advance began. A pullback confined to two contracts, with the other five stationary, does not disturb the structure. It does interrupt a fortnight in which the sector moved largely as one.

Energy (+5.95% | prev -1.57%)

Energy gained 5.95% with all six contracts higher, the largest weekly gain produced by any multi-contract sector in the current sequence and larger than the 5.63% Grains recorded a week earlier. Crude Oil WTI rose 9.69% and Crude Oil Brent 9.28%, the two largest advances on the board, followed by Heating Oil at 6.85%, Gasoline RBOB at 5.39%, Natural Gas at 3.01% and Ethanol at 1.46%. A week ago the petroleum complex had surrendered the ground that carried it beyond the origin of the July decline, and this report noted that two weeks of recovery had not become three. That reading did not survive the week. WTI near 91.22 and Brent near 95.85 have reclaimed that ground and pushed above the levels that contained them through July and August, and both now sit at the upper end of the ranges traced since the spring. Heating Oil near 4.5470 and Gasoline RBOB near 3.1998 moved with them. Natural Gas near 2.9390 has posted a third consecutive gain and continues to lift off the lows of the decline running since February, although that larger structure is still intact. Ethanol near 2.0800 extends the slow climb traced since spring. This was the one sector where participation, amplitude and direction all agreed.

Metals (-1.37% | prev -0.72%)

Metals fell 1.37%, a second consecutive decline, with four of five contracts lower. Palladium lost 2.97%, Silver 1.53%, Platinum 1.53% and Gold 1.18%, while Copper rose 0.35%. The roles have reversed from a week ago, when Palladium was the sector’s only gainer at 5.83% and the other four all fell. Gold near 4,477, Silver near 66.82 and Platinum near 1,828.50 have each drifted a little lower without doing anything decisive, and all three remain well below the February highs they failed to recover a fortnight ago. That failure, rather than this week’s small declines, is still the dominant feature of the sector. Palladium near 1,400 has given back part of the two week climb from its lows. Copper near 6.67 was the only contract higher and continues to hold the firmest upward structure in the sector. Two consecutive sector declines built from established downtrends persisting, rather than from any single large move, are worth more to a positioned portfolio than the size of the numbers suggests.

Soft Commodities (-0.91% | prev +0.25%)

Soft Commodities fell 0.91%, and once again the average hides the sector. Orange Juice rose 7.69%, the third largest gain on the board, while Sugar added 2.90% and Lumber 1.89%. Against them Cocoa fell 6.92%, Cotton 5.53% and Coffee 5.51%. Three higher, three lower, and a 14.61 percentage point spread inside a sector that finished less than a point from where it started. Composition matters far more than the average here. Orange Juice near 155.05 has bounced off the lower end of a decline that has run most of the year, the second time in three weeks it has interrupted that fall, and the larger downward structure is untouched. Cocoa near 6,175 has given back a substantial part of the two week rebound that carried it above 6,600, leaving the range it cleared last week back in question. Cotton near 86.43 has stepped back from the upper end of its chart after a climb running since June, a pullback rather than a break. Coffee near 292.90 fell for a second week and extends the decline traced since spring, the one contract in the sector whose weekly move continued something already in place. Sugar near 18.02 has resumed its advance and reached the highest level on its chart. The sector scattered again, and in different directions from last week.

Grains (-0.67% | prev +5.63%)

Grains fell 0.67% after a week in which all eight contracts rose, with the sector splitting four and four. Rough Rice gained 2.09%, Soybeans 1.69%, Soybean Meal 1.66% and Corn 0.05%, while Wheat fell 6.38%, Soybean Oil 2.73%, Oats 1.60% and Canola 0.15%. Wheat supplied most of the sector decline on its own, giving back roughly half of the 12.12% it had added a week earlier. The question left open last week was whether seven contracts at or near chart highs could hold those levels. Most of them did. Soybeans near 1,310.25, Soybean Meal near 347.90 and Rough Rice near 15.84 all finished higher than a week ago and remain at the upper end of their charts, while Canola near 820.90 and Corn near 536.75 are unchanged in practice and Corn is still pressing the highest level on its chart. Wheat near 752.75 has come off its high but sits far above the levels it occupied through the summer. Only Oats near 367.50 and Soybean Oil near 68.77 gave back ground of any size. A sector that gains 5.63% and then loses 0.67% has not reversed. It has paused, and the pause was concentrated in the contract that had run furthest.

Meats (+0.74% | prev -1.26%))

Meats gained 0.74%, ending five consecutive weeks of decline, with all three contracts higher. Feeder Cattle rose 1.15%, Live Cattle 0.58% and Lean Hogs 0.49%. The size of the move is the point. Three small gains after five weeks of falls do not undo the falls. Live Cattle near 213.15 and Feeder Cattle near 320.75 sit only marginally above the lows they reached a week ago, and the steep declines traced from the spring highs remain entirely intact on both charts. Lean Hogs near 82.25 has done the same. This is the shape a pause takes inside a downtrend: participation without amplitude, three contracts with none of them moving more than 1.15% in a week when the board average was 2.24%. A week ago Meats were described here as one of the least dramatic sectors on the board and one of the most useful. A week of very small gains does not change that description.

Bonds (-0.30% | prev +0.04%)

Bonds fell 0.30% with all four contracts lower, the first uniform configuration the complex has produced in the five weeks this report has tracked. The 30 Year Bond lost 0.49%, the 10 Year Note 0.38%, the 5 Year Note 0.25% and the 2 Year Note 0.06%. The declines grew steadily with maturity, which is the first coherent shape the curve has shown across that period. The levels matter more than the sizes. The 30 Year Bond near 108.66, 10 Year Note near 107.56, 5 Year Note near 105.55 and 2 Year Note near 102.58 have each moved to or near the lowest levels on their charts, extending declines that have run across all four maturities since the winter. After a month of contributing neither return nor much information, Bonds have quietly done both. The moves are small. They are also the clearest example on the board this week of an established structure extending itself without drama, and for a portfolio carrying short exposure across the curve the week was a useful one.

Currencies (+0.32% | prev -0.67%)

Currencies gained 0.32% and, for the first time in three weeks, did not move as a bloc. JPY rose 2.46%, AUD 0.64%, CAD 0.46% and EUR 0.23%, while the US Dollar Index fell 0.51%, NZD 0.49%, CHF 0.15% and GBP 0.12%. Four higher and four lower, after two consecutive weeks in which seven of the eight crosses moved together. The single dollar factor that had been organising the basket stopped organising it. JPY supplied the largest move in the sector and one of the ten largest gains on the board, and it is the one worth examining. JPY near 0.6404 has been the weakest currency in the basket all year, tracing a decline from above 0.6900 that has run almost without interruption. A 2.46% gain lifts it off the lows of that decline and no further. The structure it is moving against is months old and remains in place. The Dollar Index near 99.12 has given back most of last week’s rise and stays inside the range that has contained it all year. AUD near 0.7204 holds the firmest structure in the basket and sits at the upper end of its chart. EUR near 1.1619, GBP near 1.3517, CAD near 0.7230 and NZD near 0.5882 are all range bound. Three weeks ago the basket moved as one on dollar weakness, then as one on dollar strength, and this week not as one at all. That is a sector losing a common factor rather than finding a trend.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX fell 3.95%, a seventh consecutive weekly decline, and near 16.25 sits at the lower end of its range for the year. The usual relationship did not appear this week. The VIX fell while four of seven Equity Indices also fell and a fifth finished unchanged, the reverse of the pattern noted here a week ago. Seven weeks of falling volatility alongside equity indices that have stopped rising is a divergence worth watching rather than explaining. Bitcoin rose 3.02% to near 79,890, a second small move following the 21.86% surge of a fortnight ago and the 1.64% give back that came after it. Bitcoin has now spent three weeks travelling very little distance in either direction, and the decline from above 120,000 remains the dominant feature of its chart.

Top Movers

The two halves of the table have separated again. The five largest gains range from 9.69% to 5.39%, while the five largest declines range from 6.92% to 3.95%. Composition tells the more useful story. Four of the five gainers are Energy contracts, and the fifth, Orange Juice, is bouncing off the lows of a decline that has run most of the year. On the other side, Cocoa, Wheat and Cotton were all pressing chart highs a week ago and are now stepping back from them, while Coffee extends a fall running since spring and the VIX is in a seventh week of decline. A week ago eight of the ten largest moves extended a structure already in place. This week the balance is much finer. Energy supplied the distance. Coffee and the VIX supplied the duration. Both are persistence, and a trend follower cares about the difference.

Portfolio View

The Barometer held at 55% while the SG Trend Index rose 2.04 percentage points to +11.73% year to date. For the first time in the current sequence the environment reading stood still and the return figure did the moving, after four weeks in which trend strength climbed faster than returns followed. The explanation is in the composition. Energy gained 5.95% with all six contracts higher and supplied four of the five largest moves on the board. Bonds fell across all four maturities, Metals fell for a second week, Coffee extended a decline running since spring and the VIX fell for a seventh. Against that, Grains stopped after a week in which all eight contracts rose, the currency basket lost the common factor that had moved it for a fortnight, and Equity Indices turned lower. The portfolio did not need many markets to trend this week. It needed the right markets to travel. Energy did exactly that. Persistence changed address, concentration increased, and returns improved sharply. Nothing about those three observations is inconsistent. They are three different descriptions of the same market. The week was strongly directional in Energy and across the curve in Bonds, and much less so anywhere else.

Final Reflections

Last week the highest Barometer reading of the sequence arrived in its quietest week. This week the same reading arrived in the loudest. The Barometer held at 55% while the SG Trend Index improved from +9.69% to +11.73% year to date. The average move across the board rose more than fivefold, from 0.43% to 2.24%. Two consecutive weeks have now produced an identical trend strength reading from completely different markets underneath, and only the return figure separated them. Counting how many markets are trending and measuring how far they have travelled are different exercises.

Energy made the point this week from the opposite end to the one Meats made it from last week. Six contracts higher, the two crudes up more than 9% each, and a sector average larger than any multi-contract sector has produced in this sequence. The Barometer barely registered it, because six contracts out of forty-nine is not breadth however far they travel. The return figure registered very little else.

1. The largest weekly return in the sequence arrived in the first week trend strength did not rise. That is not a contradiction. It is what a lag looks like.

The five-week sequence now reads 34, 39, 50, 55 and 55. The Barometer has held all 25 points it gained from the late July low, still sits 3 points above the 52% that preceded that collapse, and its 10-day rate of change has strengthened back to Rising Moderately after slowing a week ago. Across the three weeks it spent climbing to this level, the SG Trend Index added 2.59 percentage points in total. In the one week it stopped climbing, the index added 2.04. The Barometer measured the distribution. The return figure measured the distance. Both readings were accurate, and they were never measuring the same thing.

2. Last week’s largest gains became this week’s largest declines, and the sector that had stalled became the sector that led.

A week ago Wheat, Cocoa, Oats and Soybean Meal supplied four of the five largest gains on the board, with Grains putting all eight contracts higher and seven at or near chart highs. This week Wheat and Cocoa are the two largest declines and the sector has split four and four. Over the same fortnight Energy went from surrendering its rebound to producing the largest sector gain in the sequence. Neither reversal required a change in the underlying structures. Wheat still sits far above its summer range and Cocoa far above its spring lows. What changed was the pace. The largest number on a performance table remains a poor guide to where a trend portfolio actually made or lost its money.

This week was a useful reminder of what trend following actually harvests. Not forecasts. Not breadth for its own sake. Not the number of green boxes on a screen. Persistent movement. Sometimes that persistence is spread across dozens of markets. Sometimes six Energy contracts do most of the heavy lifting. The Barometer held. Returns surged. Both were right. Trend strength did not increase this week. The trends that mattered simply travelled a very long way.

The week ahead is therefore about whether this week’s concentration broadens or fades. The Barometer sits at 55% for a second week, holding at the threshold of a favourable environment, with its rate of change strengthening back to Rising Moderately. Energy has pushed the petroleum complex above the range that contained it through July and August, and the question is whether a fourth week extends that or repeats the stall of a fortnight ago. Bonds have produced their first uniform move across the curve in five weeks, small but coherent, with all four maturities at or near chart lows. Grains have paused rather than reversed, with most contracts still near their highs and Wheat the single exception. The currency basket has lost the dollar factor that organised it for a fortnight, and JPY has bounced off the lows of a decline months in the making without disturbing it. In each case the question is the same one it always is: does the structure persist? For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

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List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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