TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED Q2 2025 REVIEW

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It’s been a lively few months on Top Traders Unplugged. Between unpredictable markets, unexpected policy shifts, and some bold new ideas in macro and volatility, the second quarter of 2025 gave us plenty to explore. And that’s exactly what we’ve done.

There’s been a growing sense that we’re in a transition period. Inflation hasn’t disappeared, growth looks fine on the surface, but under the hood things are changing. Labor markets are tighter than they appear, trade patterns are shifting, and investor behavior is adapting to a world where old assumptions no longer hold. In response, we’ve advocated for less focus on calling the next move and more on understanding the structure underneath it all.

Here’s a look back at what we covered, what we learned, and how we plan on moving forward.

The News That Kept Us on Our Toes

One of the big headlines this quarter was tariffs. The White House’s decision to hike tariffs on Chinese goods, especially electric vehicles and tech inputs, didn’t come out of nowhere, but the market reaction suggested it still caught people off guard. On the podcast, we explored how this fits into a broader shift toward economic nationalism and what that means for inflation, margins, and supply chains.

At the same time, we saw mixed signals from the economy. April kicked off with a sharp reversal in trend positions. Equities collapsed, commodities sold off, bonds lost ground, and volatility spiked. For systematic strategies, it was a reminder of how quickly positioning can get punished when the regime changes. By late May and early June, we started to see a bit of stabilization. Trend followers found footing again as metals, grains, livestock and equity markets picked up. Still, the message was clear. This is a market driven by shifting narratives, which is not what trend following is built for.

We also spent time looking at structural shifts in how markets function. The rise of zero-day options, algorithmic trading, and volatility-sensitive strategies is changing how and when price moves happen. Intraday activity now plays a bigger role in driving market outcomes. It’s no longer just about fundamentals or valuation. Flows and positioning matter more than ever. That’s a different kind of market, and it requires a different kind of playbook.

So, what should investors take away from all this? First, don’t assume the future will look like the past. A lot of the standard models and frameworks are under pressure and likely won’t work as they did in the past. Second, risk management needs to be proactive and continuous. Relying on historical patterns or fixed allocations isn’t enough. And third, diversification has to go beyond the usual asset class split stocks and bonds because old correlations are breaking apart.

We’ve entered a period where the old rules aren’t holding up. Passive investing still has a role, but relying entirely on set-it-and-forget-it strategies is looking riskier by the day. Being flexible, adaptable, and willing to rethink assumptions will be the most valuable tool any investor can bring into the second half of the year.

Key Conversations from the Quarter

This quarter, we had several conversations that challenged conventional thinking and tied directly into the themes we’ve seen playing out in real time in markets and the economy.

One of the most thought-provoking episodes this featured Demetri Kofinas, the sharp and deeply inquisitive host of Hidden Forces. He joined us to explore a theme that echoed through several conversations this quarter: the power of the stories we tell ourselves about how markets work. He pushed us to question long-held assumptions about price discovery, inflation, and even the idea of market efficiency at a time when investor behavior seems increasingly driven by narratives rather than fundamentals.

While many have been focused on the negative effects of Trump’s trade policies, we had a conversation on the podcast that explored how they might actually work in Europe’s favor, a dynamic the guests called “MEGA: Make Europe Great Again.” Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels, both from BNP Paribas Fortis, offered a nuanced take on how shifting trade flows, capital allocation, and geopolitical realignment could give Europe a new strategic edge. They unpacked the ripple effects of tariffs, the evolving energy landscape, and how these forces are quietly rebalancing global power.

Kenneth Rogoff (former Chief Economist at the IMF and Professor at Harvard) offered a sober take on the long-term status of the U.S. dollar. He walked us through why trust in U.S. institutions is central to the dollar’s global standing. As more countries test alternatives and diversify reserves, his message about the slow erosion of confidence hit home.

Echoing many of Rogoff’s concerns, Barry Eichengreen, professor at UC Berkeley and a leading authority on global currencies, made the case that the biggest threat to the dollar isn’t coming from abroad but from within. He pointed to rising debt, political gridlock, and growing doubts about U.S. institutions as signs that confidence in the dollar is starting to slip. While the shift won’t happen overnight, he explained how these slow-moving cracks are already pushing some countries to look for alternatives. It was a timely and grounded reminder that trust, once lost, is hard to rebuild.

The final guest of Q2 was Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO of Unlimited, who brought the conversation full circle by focusing on the risks investors tend to overlook until it’s too late. He talked about the disconnect between what markets appear to price in and the structural shifts happening beneath the surface. It was a sharp reminder that good performance isn’t always a sign of a solid foundation, and that true resilience comes from questioning the assumptions behind your models.

Perhaps the most exciting development this quarter was the launch of our U Got Options series recorded on the floor of the Cboe, and hosted by Cem Karsan. The first three episodes set a high bar. So far, we've featured Mike Green, Jim Bianco, and Ben Eifert; three voices with very different vantage points on how options and volatility are influencing broader markets. Across these conversations, we covered the mechanics of zero-day options, the interaction between policy and positioning, and how structural changes in volatility are challenging long-held assumptions.

Of course, the episodes mentioned above are just a handful from a packed quarter. We’ve had so many rich and varied conversations, and each one has added something valuable to the way we think about markets today. A huge thank you to all our incredible co-hosts who helped make these conversations possible - Alan Dunne, Kevin Coldiron, Moritz Seibert, Rob Carver, Richard Brennan, Mark Rzepczynski, Kary Kaminski, Yoav Git, Cem Karsan, and Nick Baltas. Their insights have shaped every episode and brought real depth to the discussions.

What’s Next?

As we move into the second half of 2025, a few things are clear. The macro environment remains uncertain, but it’s no longer just about recession forecasts or rate cut odds. We’re now looking at the bigger shifts: how global trade is changing, the new dominance of fiscal policies, how political fragmentation affects markets, and how financial products are adapting.

We’ll keep asking the hard questions across our core shows: what’s actually driving returns? Where are the risks we’re not seeing? And how do you build portfolios that don’t just survive, but evolve?

If the last few months are any indication, the rest of the year won’t slow down, and we’ll be here for it.

Stay tuned!

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This is based on episodes on Top Traders Unplugged, a bi-weekly podcast with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders and thought leaders in the world. Sign up for our Newsletter or subscribe on your preferred podcast platform so that you don't miss out on future episodes.