Trend Following - Week in Review - December 19, 2025

“Thawing Breadth, Fragile Conviction”

This Week in Trend – 19 December 2025

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 19 December 2025.

This week marked a clear shift in tone from last week’s violent rotation toward something more constructive. While conviction remains uneven, trend breadth improved modestly, and price action began to show signs of persistence rather than pure shock and reversal.

Metals emerged as the dominant leadership cluster, volatility compressed sharply, and several equity and rate markets held their structure rather than breaking down. Energy remained fragile, grains continued to struggle, and crypto retreated, but the overall picture was no longer one of disorder. Markets began to move with greater internal consistency across asset classes.

The improvement was not dramatic, but it was meaningful. For the first time in several weeks, structure started to catch up with price.

SG Trend Index Performance

Month to date: +0.53 percent
Year to date: +1.00 percent

Last week:
• +0.32 percent MTD
• +0.79 percent YTD

The SG Trend Index extended its recovery this week, adding to both December and year-to-date gains. Unlike last week, where returns were achieved amid abrupt reversals and narrow participation, this advance was supported by cleaner leadership and reduced interruption.

Metals were the primary contributor, delivering strong and persistent trends across multiple contracts. At the same time, falling volatility reduced drag from whipsaw environments, allowing existing positions to compound rather than churn.

The index did not surge, but the character of returns improved. This was less about speed and more about continuity. Gains were earned through persistence rather than rescue rallies.

TTU Trend Barometer

Current reading: 48 percent
Previous reading: 45 percent
10 day rate of change: Rising weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer rose to 48 percent, remaining within a neutral regime while continuing its gradual recovery from recent lows. This represents the strongest breadth reading in recent weeks and suggests that more markets are beginning to stabilise into emerging trend structures, though confirmation remains incomplete.

The improvement reflects broad participation rather than a single dominant theme. Metals, select equity indices, parts of the rates complex and some soft commodities all contributed positively. Importantly, this lift occurred without a volatility spike, suggesting trend formation rather than stress-driven displacement.

While 48 percent remains firmly within neutral territory, the direction of travel matters. The rising but weak rate of change suggests that trend conditions are attempting to improve rather than deteriorate.

This is an environment where opportunity is expanding, but discipline remains essential. Early regime transitions are still vulnerable to rotation.

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

• Volatility Index (−7.17 percent | prev −3.26 percent)
  Volatility fell sharply, reinforcing the shift away from stress and shock. This compression supports trend persistence, particularly for slower systems that struggled during recent whipsaw conditions.
• Crypto (−2.81 percent | prev +0.81 percent)
  Crypto rolled over again. Bitcoin failed to hold prior gains and remains trapped in a choppy, corrective structure. Trend signals weakened further.
• Grains (−1.51 percent | prev −2.49 percent)
  Grains remained under pressure. Structure across soy, wheat and related markets continues to degrade, offering little in the way of sustained directional opportunity.
• Meats (+0.96 percent | prev +1.30 percent)
  Meats continued to behave constructively. Live cattle and feeder cattle remain structurally sound, though momentum has moderated. This cluster continues to act as a stabilising sleeve.
• Bonds (+0.30 percent | prev −0.24 percent)
  Rates posted modest gains and held structure. While trends remain slow and range bound, downside pressure eased and persistence improved slightly.
• Energy (−1.76 percent | prev −7.35 percent)
  Energy remained fragile. While the pace of decline slowed, crude and refined products failed to reassert leadership. Natural gas stabilised but remains volatile and structurally vulnerable.
• Metals (+8.54 percent | prev +2.91 percent)
  Metals dominated the week. Silver, platinum and palladium all extended strong upside trends, with copper holding firm and gold remaining well supported. This was the cleanest and most coordinated leadership across the futures universe.
• Soft Commodities (+0.81 percent | prev +4.40 percent)
  Softs were mixed. Orange juice extended higher again, while coffee and cocoa sold off sharply. The cluster remains rotational, though selective trends persist.
• Equity Index (+0.04 percent | prev −0.59 percent)
  Equities stabilised. Major indices held their uptrend structures despite limited weekly progress. The absence of breakdown is notable given recent volatility.
• Currency (−0.37 percent | prev +0.26 percent)
  Currencies drifted lower and remain largely directionless. FX continues to express balance rather than conviction.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Orange Juice +21.42 percent
  Orange juice extended its rebound, confirming that last week’s surge was not purely a one-day squeeze. Trend strength remains extreme, though volatility is elevated.
• Palladium +16.39 percent
  Palladium continued its powerful advance, reinforcing metals leadership. Structure is now firmly trend-aligned.
• Platinum +14.38 percent
  Platinum extended its breakout, maintaining one of the cleanest trends across all asset classes.
• Silver +8.69 percent
  Silver accelerated higher, adding momentum to an already well-defined uptrend.

Top Losers

• Coffee −7.61 percent
  Coffee broke sharply lower, reversing prior stabilisation and reinforcing its volatile, mean-reverting character.
• VIX −7.17 percent
  Volatility continued to compress, supporting trend persistence elsewhere.
• Cocoa −6.83 percent
  Cocoa resumed its decline after last week’s rebound, confirming ongoing instability.
• Soybean Oil −4.39 percent
  Soybean oil weakened further, adding to the broader grain complex deterioration.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

Equities

Equity exposure remained largely intact. While weekly gains were small, uptrend structures across major indices were preserved. This favours patience over rotation.

Metals

Metals were the primary positive contributor. Multiple contracts delivered sustained upside with minimal interruption. This cluster now represents the clearest expression of trend alignment in the portfolio.

Energy

Energy remained a source of uncertainty rather than opportunity. Trend exposure was reduced or rotated as leadership failed to re-establish itself. Dispersion across models remained elevated.

Soft Commodities and Meats

Soft commodities were mixed and rotational. Orange juice remained exceptional, while coffee and cocoa punished late positioning. Meats continued to provide steady, low-drama contribution.

Rates and FX

Rates stabilised modestly, improving persistence but not yet offering strong trend signals. FX exposure remained light and balanced.

Crypto

Crypto exposure was minimal. Trend signals deteriorated further, reinforcing caution.

Final Reflections – Thawing Breadth, Fragile Conviction

This week marked an important transition. Markets did not explode higher, but they stopped fighting themselves. Breadth improved modestly, volatility compressed, and leadership became more visible, though still uneven.

Three observations define the week:

1. Breadth is attempting to improve.
   The move toward the high forties on the TTU Trend Barometer suggests that fewer markets are breaking down simultaneously, even if broad trend alignment has yet to emerge.
2. Metals have assumed leadership.
   This is the cleanest and most durable trend cluster currently available.
3. Energy remains unresolved.
   Without energy confirmation, regime shifts remain fragile.

This is not yet a full trend renaissance. But it is no longer a market defined by violence without follow-through. Structure is beginning to assert itself. For systematic trend followers, this is the phase where patience, consistent sizing and respect for exits begin to matter again.

The market is warming. The only question now is whether it can hold.

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List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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