Is it wise to adjust position-size according to recent volatility? Can back-testing a Trend Following strategy end up as just being a form of curve-fitting? We discuss the merits of Long-Term evidence over Recency Bias, the importance of Sharpe Ratios, the significance of price gaps, and whether leverage is a necessity for all CTAs. You…Read More
Often, a Trend following strategy is described as being a ‘Black Box’, as if something bad was going on. So it was refreshing to hear Scott Foster talk about Trend Following as being in fact, a ‘White Box’, or a ‘Transparent Box’, in comparison to other algorithmic strategies, which are often embraced by investors to…Read More
One of Wall Street’s Most Popular Trading Strategies Is Now Failing
Machines that decide when to buy and sell are struggling to keep up with central banks and Donald Trump.
Remember this headline from Bloomberg on March 1?
Well…as we close the month of March, it sure looks like this journalist got his timing right…Read More
In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast. Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about…Read More
“This is where the populism intercedes with the market risks. I think people look at these risks as independent risks, so they’re not looking at them and how they interrelate with the ecosystem of financial products, as well.” – Chris Cole (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures…Read More
On today’s show, we give our thoughts on ‘Evidence-Based Investing’, David Harding’s latest comments on Trend Following, how much is too much ‘Open Risk’, as well as answering: what are some of the ‘Trend Commandments’? Also, we discuss whether it’s safe or not to buy after a big upside price break or sell after a…Read More
“I think the idea is that the math of quantitative easing really matters. It’s all about the shift at the margin.” – Dan Stone (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group and the Managed Funds Association. On today’s episode, which took place…Read More
Discussion points this week include, Volatility vs Risk, the differences between Trading and Investing, Zero Hedge’s comment about CTAs & Trend Followers being useless, and the NY Times article on high market skepticism while prices continue to go up. Also, should CTAs be used as a tool just for ‘Crisis Alpha’, or something more? Can…Read More
Is it more profitable to be longer-term? When is Trend Following the wrong strategy to use? Should you ‘ease’ into a trade, or go all in, and how should you adjust position size? Other talking points include where to trade Single Stock Futures, how to include Options into a Trend Following strategy, as well as recent…Read More
Would you believe somebody if they told you they had been very successful in the investment world, by looking at the just markets once a week? Everything, and everyone, seems to be getting increasingly more short-term in their nature, so it seems counter-intuitive that you can run an actively managed trading strategy by only checking…Read More