Trend Following - Week in Review - April 25, 2025

"The waters have stilled, but the horizon remains unclear. In these moments, navigation depends not on certainty—but on the courage to continue."

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your window into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend-following.

Following last week’s tentative rebound, this week deepened the calm—but didn’t quite clear the air. Volatility collapsed. Equities led. Commodities rotated. There was movement, even momentum. But clarity? Still elusive.

We’re no longer reeling. We’re rebalancing—carefully, quietly, and in the fog.

“The Calm Deepens—But So Does the Uncertainty”

Markets extended their recovery this week, building on last week’s tentative rebound.
Volatility continued to collapse. Equities surged. Commodity trends shifted.

But beneath the surface, uncertainty still reigns.
The rally broadened—but leadership rotated rather than strengthened. Gains were real, but the foundation remains fragile.

What we witnessed this week wasn’t a surge into new territory—it was a continuation of cautious recalibration. Systems are adapting, rebalancing, and searching for durable signals—not charging ahead with conviction.

SG Trend Index Performance

• MTD (as of April 24): -5.72%
• YTD: -10.11%

The SG Trend Index improved for the second consecutive week, clawing back ground from earlier April losses.

Compared to last week’s small uptick, this week showed a more consistent grind higher—especially for managers exposed to equities and soft commodities.

It’s progress. But portfolios are still navigating a bruising environment, where resilience matters more than raw returns.

TTU Trend Barometer: 50% – Neutral, Gaining Traction

• Last week: 50%
• This week: 50%
• 10-day rate-of-change: Rising slightly

The barometer held steady at a neutral 50%, but the underlying rate of change turned mildly positive.

This hints at a subtle broadening of trend strength—particularly in equities and softs—after several weeks of narrowing signals.

This is not yet a “hot” trend environment.

It’s still a fragile rebalancing, stitched together by cautious participation, not exuberant conviction.

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

The chart above tells the story: equities dominate, volatility collapses further, commodities rotate—and trend strength becomes more selective.

• Equity Indexes: +4.66%
• Meats: +2.14%
• Soft Commodities: +1.98%
• Grains: +0.88%
• Bonds: +0.57%
• Metals: +0.36%
• Currencies: -0.26%
• Energy: -0.71%
• Volatility Index (VIX): -12.08%

Asset Class Breakdown – Rotation, Not Resurgence

Volatility Index: -12.08% (Prev: -15.52%)
Volatility plunged for the second straight week, removing a profitable volatility trend but stabilizing portfolios. The calm deepens—but aftershocks still loom.

Grains: +0.88% (Prev: +1.70%)
Grain markets were firmer but lacked conviction. Some improvement, but leadership remains absent.

Meats: +2.14% (Prev: +4.47%)
Momentum cooled but continued. Livestock markets remained supportive for systems positioned long.

Bonds: +0.57% (Prev: +0.39%)
Another modest bounce. Bonds remain trendless overall but are no longer exerting major drag on portfolios.

Energy: -0.71% (Prev: +2.99%)
A reversal week. Crude oil momentum stalled, and dispersion remains high across the energy complex. Nimble systems likely reduced exposure.

Metals: +0.36% (Prev: +6.22%)
A sharp slowdown from last week’s surge. Metals cooled, but the medium-term trend backdrop remains intact—especially for silver and gold.

Softs: +1.98% (Prev: +4.42%)
Soft commodities continued to lead selectively—particularly cocoa and coffee—even as broader momentum slowed.

Equity Index: +4.66% (Prev: +1.47%)
The standout asset class this week. Equities regained strong upward momentum, especially in technology and European indices. Systems exposed to equities captured meaningful gains.

Currency: -0.26% (Prev: +1.42%)
USD weakness paused. FX systems faced narrower opportunities, with many rotating to neutral or reducing exposures.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

To complement the rotation seen across asset classes, here’s a snapshot of standout contracts. The chart above captures the full range of weekly performance moves—and this week’s leaders came from both equity and commodity camps.

Top Performers:

• Cocoa: +13.56% – Explosive move higher. Cocoa remains the standout contract of Q2, pushing new highs amid ongoing supply stress.
• Coffee: +7.09% – Soft commodity strength persists. The rally is maturing but hasn’t exhausted.
• Nasdaq 100: +6.39% – Tech surge drives equity trend formation.
• Euro Stoxx 50 / DAX / Nikkei 225: +5.44%, +5.43%, +4.56% – Equities aren’t just a US story. Global equity markets joined the risk-on rotation.
• Canola / S&P 500 / Russell 2000: +4.43%, +4.51%, +3.87% – Broad equity participation adds to the strength of the rotation narrative.

Biggest Declines:

• Orange Juice: -13.27% – Last week’s top performer turned this week’s sharpest reversal. Illiquid and prone to volatility.
• VIX: -12.08% – Another week of volatility unwind. Fear is off the table—for now.
• Natural Gas: -6.76% – Whipsaws continue. A consistent source of pain for directional systems.
• Wheat / Palladium: -3.11%, -2.11% – Weakness across grains and metals emerges as previous momentum fades.
• Crude Oil (WTI & Brent): -1.31% / -1.55% – Energy paused. After two strong weeks, crude gave back gains.

Portfolio Observations

• Equities: This was the breakout week. Strong global equity participation suggests new trend potential—especially in tech and Europe.
• Soft Commodities: Still strong. Cocoa and coffee are standout contracts—outliers within the broader commodity landscape.
• Energy & Metals: The shine faded. Positions in crude and copper likely trimmed or stopped.
• Currencies: FX markets went quiet. The USD drifted sideways, reducing signal strength for trend-following systems.
• Volatility: A second week of collapse closed out short-vol trades. Calm helped portfolios—but reduced opportunity.

Final Reflections – The Calm Deepens, But So Does the Uncertainty

This week extended the market’s recovery—but not its clarity.

It was a calmer, more directional environment—but one defined by rotation, not resurgence.

The SG Trend Index improved again, trimming losses but still anchored in a deep YTD drawdown.

The Trend Barometer held at neutral, with only a faint uptick in trend conviction.

Equities took the lead, while metals and energy faded.

Volatility collapsed further, bringing welcome peace—but reducing opportunity.

This isn’t the start of a new regime. It’s a careful rebalancing—a transition from turbulence to stillness, where the risk lies in assuming too much too soon.

Systems are surviving. Some are adapting. But the environment remains ambiguous.

We’re not out of the fog. We’ve just stopped spinning.

And in this moment—where calm can be deceptive and trends remain tentative—discipline, not prediction, remains the edge.

The question isn’t whether the next trend will come. It’s whether you’ll still be standing when it does.

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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