Trend Following - Week in Review - August 1, 2025

“The Pulse Fades, But Not Everywhere”

This Week In Trend

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your weekly pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

Momentum contracted this week, with weakness spreading across metals, equities, and soft commodities. Crypto stumbled. Volatility surged. Meats held firm, and bonds clawed out modest gains. While the broader environment softened, isolated signals still showed resolve.

The SG Trend Index rose a modest +0.45% month-to-date on its first day, but the YTD drag persists at -9.58%. The TTU Trend Barometer dipped sharply to 36 percent, reflecting a broad loss of trend structure and signalling a moderately weak environment.

It was a trickier week for systems. Some trends reversed. Others paused. But amid the noise, the map still showed islands of persistence.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month-to-date (as of Aug 1): +0.45%
• Year-to-date: -9.58%

(Previous week MTD: +2.00% | YTD: -8.19%)

A subdued start to the new month. Trend conditions weakened, and most systems likely treaded lightly.

TTU Trend Barometer: 36 Percent – Moderately Weak

• Previous reading: 59 Percent
• 10-day rate of change: Falling Moderately

The Trend Barometer dropped to 36 percent, falling below neutral. Fewer than 40 percent of markets are showing medium to strong trend conditions. This shift reflects a compression in price persistence, even as isolated trends remain.

“At thirty-six, the noise returns—but it’s not universal.”

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Metals and softs led the downside. Crypto and equities also reversed. Volatility exploded higher. Bonds and energy saw minor gains. Meats stood alone with near-flat performance, supported by cattle strength.

Asset Class Breakdown – Reversals and Continuations

• Energy: +0.30% (Previous: -3.58%)
  Crude held steady. Natural gas found footing. Not a strong bounce, but a shift from breakdown to pause.
• Metals: -6.89% (Previous: -0.45%)
  A washout. Gold collapsed, copper reversed, and silver crumbled. Heavy selling hit the sector hard.
• Equities: -3.19% (Previous: +1.30%)
  U.S. indices dropped sharply. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell lost altitude. Risk appetite waned.
• Soft Commodities: -5.32% (Previous: +0.46%)
  Orange juice and cocoa gave back recent gains. Trend signals here softened meaningfully.
• Grains: -2.75% (Previous: -0.76%)
  Another down week. Corn, wheat, and soybeans slipped again. Momentum is fading.
• Meats: +0.03% (Previous: +2.00%)
  Flat overall, but strength in live cattle and feeder cattle held up. Continuity remains.
• Bonds: +1.01% (Previous: +0.25%)
  The 30-year and 10-year rose again. Structure continues to build slowly. Long exposure likely held.
• Currencies: -0.80% (Previous: +0.47%)
  The dollar advanced modestly. AUD and GBP weakened. FX remains choppy and low-conviction.
• Crypto: -3.05% (Previous: -0.29%)
  Bitcoin dropped over 3 percent. The trend is intact but under pressure. Stops may be tightening.
• Volatility Index: +11.27% (Previous: -6.48%)
  VIX snapped higher. After weeks of compression, volatility roared back—raising alert levels for trend-followers.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• VIX: +11.27% – Volatility snapped higher amid trend disruption
• Lumber: +3.34% – Sharp rebound off oversold levels
• Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): +3.22% / +2.73% – Energy strength continued
• Gasoline RBOB: +2.12% – Followed oil strength
• 30-Year Bond / 10-Year Note / USD: +1.73% / +1.14% / +1.1% – Classic defensive rotation

Top Losers

• Orange Juice: -27.05% – Climactic reversal after parabolic run
• Copper: -23.2% – Major breakdown ends multi-month trend
• Platinum: -6.47% – Heavy selling in precious metals
• Wheat / Heating Oil / Coffee: -3.99% / -3.99% / -3.76% – Grains and energy reversed
• Russell 2000 / Soybeans / Nikkei 225: -4.16% / -3.34% / -3.51% – Equities and commodities under pressure

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

• Energy: Oil (WTI and Brent) posted solid gains, potentially triggering fresh long entries or adding to existing exposure. Natural gas continued to slide, likely flipping many models to the short side.
• Metals: Copper collapsed, giving up prior trend gains in a single week. Systems likely exited abruptly. Platinum and silver also weakened, suggesting the metals complex is back in unwind mode.
• Grains: Corn, soybeans, and wheat all declined, breaking recent rebounds. Models are likely scaling down or moving to the sidelines as trend signals weaken.
• Softs: Orange juice suffered a massive drawdown, erasing weeks of trend. Cocoa also turned negative. Coffee remains under pressure. The sector's prior strength has turned disorderly.
• Equities: U.S. indices pulled back, with the Russell 2000 notably weak. Nikkei and Euro Stoxx 50 also fell, suggesting global equity trends are cooling. Exposure likely reduced or risk-managed.
• Bonds: U.S. 30-year and 10-year notes continued upward, reinforcing long bias. The trend appears to be rebuilding across the curve, with systems re-engaging.
• Currencies: Mixed moves with slight USD strength. No strong, coordinated trend across majors. Systems likely remain cautious or underweight.
• Crypto: Bitcoin slipped, along with broader risk sentiment. Trend signals likely remain in place, but drawdowns may trigger tighter stops or reduced sizing.
• Volatility: VIX spiked over 11 percent, marking a dramatic reversal. This may shake out weaker breakout positions and prompt system re-evaluation, especially in risk-on assets.

Final Reflections – The Pulse Fades, But Not Everywhere

This week marked a clear shift in the trend environment. The TTU Trend Barometer slipped to 36 percent, reinforcing what the SG Trend Index also hinted — trends are losing cohesion. While volatility spiked and commodity weakness deepened, only a few themes held firm.

Energy offered selective strength, especially in crude oil, but metals and softs saw prior leaders like copper and orange juice unwind violently. Equities wobbled. Crypto paused. The environment has become more fragmented, more reactive.

For trend followers, this is not the time to force trades — it’s the time to manage exposure, follow process, and stay adaptive. The edges are thinner, but they haven’t vanished. They're just harder to catch.

Keep your discipline sharp. Let your stops breathe.

 

 

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document is directly solely to Accredited Investors, Qualified Eligible Participants, Qualified Clients and Qualified Purchasers. No investment decision should be made until prospective investors have read the detailed information in the fund offering documents of any manager mentioned in this document. This document is furnished on a confidential basis only for the use of the recipient and only for discussion purposes and is subject to amendment This document is neither advice nor a recommendation to enter into any transaction. This document is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any security or other financial instrument. This presentation is based on information obtained from sources that TopTradersUnplugged (“TTU”) (“considers to be reliable however, TTU makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information. TTU has not independently verified third party manager or benchmark information, does not represent it as accurate, true or complete, makes no warranty, express or implied regarding it and shall not be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses relating to its adequacy, accuracy, truth, completeness or use.

All projections, valuations, and statistical analyses are provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein. Such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may use one among many alternative methodologies that produce different results accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses should not be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate prediction of future events. There is no guarantee that any targeted performance will be achieved Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone

TTU is not and does not purport to be an advisor as to legal, taxation, accounting, financial or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. The recipient should independently evaluate and judge the matters referred to herein. TTU does not provide advice or recommendations regarding an investor’s decision to allocate to funds or accounts managed by any manager (“or to maintain or sell investments in funds or accounts managed by any manager, and no fiduciary relationship under ERISA is created by the investor investing in funds or accounts managed by any manager, or through any communication between TTU and the investor

In reviewing this document, it should be understood that the past performance results of any asset class, or any investment or trading program set forth herein, are not necessarily indicative of any future results that may be achieved in connection with any transaction. Any persons subscribing for an investment must be able to bear the risks involved and must meet the suitability requirements relating to such investment. Some or all alternative investment programs discussed herein may not be suitable for certain investors This document is directed only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such investment professionals. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely upon this document.

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

This document contains simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations AND SHOULD BE VIEWED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT ACCOUNT.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM OR OTHER ASSET.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those being shown.