Trend Following - Week in Review - August 29 , 2025

“Fragile Floor, Outliers Fade”

This Week in Trend – 29 August 2025

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your weekly pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

The TTU Trend Barometer eased to 30 percent, down from last week’s 32, leaving conditions firmly in “very weak” territory. Breadth remains thin. A few markets delivered strong moves—natural gas, hogs, and precious metals—but broader participation faded. Crypto, softs, and equities weighed heavily, reminding us that dispersion cuts both ways.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month-to-date (as of Aug 29): +2.89%
• Year-to-date: -7.43%
  (Previous week: +1.74% MTD | -8.46% YTD)

August closed in positive territory, lifted by energy, metals, and livestock trends. Still, the YTD drawdown remains steep, reflecting how isolated outliers cannot offset weakness across the broader complex.

TTU Trend Barometer

• Current reading: 30 percent – Very Weak
• Previous reading: 32 percent
• 10-day rate of change: Rising weakly

At just 30 percent, fewer than a third of markets show medium-to-strong trend strength. The floor is fragile.

“At thirty, the floor is fragile—and the roar of outliers has faded into scattered whispers.”

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

Asset Class Breakdown – Reversals and Continuations

• Meats: +1.91% – Cattle and hogs extended clean upward trends.
• Metals: +1.20% – Silver and gold surged; copper steadied.
• Bonds: +0.07% – Flat to positive, steady diversification.
• Currencies: +0.16% – Majors quiet, USD rangebound.
• Volatility Index: +0.31% – VIX edged higher, reversing last week’s crush.
• Grains: -0.57% – Corn, wheat, and oats gained, soybeans mixed, canola weak.
• Energy: -0.66% – Nat gas rallied, but crude products dragged.
• Soft Commodities: -1.37% – Cocoa, cotton, lumber, and sugar fell; coffee gained modestly.
• Equities: -0.99% – US indices softened, with Nasdaq and Nikkei hardest hit.
• Crypto: -7.91% – Bitcoin collapse drove the week’s biggest losses.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Natural Gas: +7.71% – Explosive rebound from deep lows.
• Lean Hogs: +4.17% – Meats complex extended gains.
• Rough Rice: +3.25% – Bounced sharply after prior week’s collapse.
• Silver: +3.03% – Precious metals strength broadened.
• Gold: +2.86% – Another week of steady buying.

Top Losers

• Ethanol: -10.14% – Steep collapse capped the energy complex.
• Bitcoin: -7.91% – Heavy downside break in crypto.
• Lumber: -6.66% – Continued structural weakness.
• Soybean Oil: -5.97% – Oils complex under pressure.
• Canola: -5.85% – Agricultural weakness widened.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

• Energy: Nat gas longs dominated, crude steady, but products and ethanol dragged.
• Metals: Gold and silver strong; palladium lagged.
• Grains: Corn and wheat gains offset soy oils weakness.
• Softs: Coffee firmed, but cocoa, lumber, cotton, and sugar dragged.
• Meats: Long cattle and hogs remain portfolio leaders.
• Bonds: Provided modest, stable diversification.
• Equities: Global indices softened, led by Nasdaq (-1.3%) and Nikkei (-1.9%).
• Currencies: Quiet week, no conviction shifts.
• Crypto: Bitcoin losses offset commodity strength.
• Volatility: VIX ticked higher, easing pressure on breakouts.

Final Reflections – Fragile Floor, Outliers Fade

This week was a quieter study in fragility. Last week’s roar of coffee and cattle gave way to muted outliers. Natural gas and metals offered strength, but crypto, softs, and equities dragged portfolios back. With the TTU Barometer at 30 percent, breadth remains absent.

For trend followers, the lesson is timeless: robust portfolios cannot rely on breadth in weak environments—they survive by catching the rare outliers that persist, even when the floor beneath remains fragile.

 

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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