Trend Following - Week in Review - January 2, 2026

“New Year, Old Rules”

This Week in Trend – 2 January 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 2 January 2026.

The first trading days of the new year delivered an immediate change in tone. The narrow leadership that defined late December fractured sharply, volatility reasserted itself selectively, and several of the strongest trends of the prior month experienced abrupt reversals.

Markets did not ease into January. They rotated.

What emerged was not disorder, but transition. Leadership shifted, prior winners gave ground, and capital rotated toward defensive and idiosyncratic pockets rather than broad directional alignment. The opening week served as a reminder that calendar turns do not soften exits, and persistence is always conditional.

SG Trend Index Performance

Month to date: 0.00 percent
Year to date: 0.00 percent

Last week:

• Month to date: +2.01 percent
• Year to date: +2.49 percent

As expected, the SG Trend Index reset to zero with the start of the new month and year. While this week’s price action was far from quiet, the index remains flat due to the early-month reset and the absence of sustained follow-through across the broader universe.

The contrast with last week is notable. December ended with performance driven by a highly concentrated metals complex under conditions of extreme volatility compression. January began with that same concentration unwinding sharply.

This was not a week of index-level trend expression. It was a week of recalibration.

TTU Trend Barometer

Current reading: 50 percent
Previous reading: 36 percent
10-day rate of change: Rising moderately

The TTU Trend Barometer rose decisively to 50 percent this week, pushing firmly into the neutral zone and approaching the threshold of a stronger trend environment. Unlike last week’s tentative improvement, this advance is now accompanied by a rising rate of change, signalling that trend participation is not only broader, but improving at the margin.

This shift suggests that recent rotation is beginning to resolve rather than persist. While leadership remains selective, more markets are transitioning from stabilisation into sustained trend conditions. The improvement reflects renewed alignment rather than simple redistribution.

At 50 percent, the barometer no longer describes a fragile environment. Instead, it points to early-stage trend rebuilding, where participation is expanding but conviction is still forming. This remains a regime that rewards discipline and patience, but it is no longer one defined by contraction.

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

• Volatility Index (−4.27 percent | prev −3.41 percent)
  Volatility compressed further, even as leadership rotated aggressively. This combination reflects controlled liquidation rather than stress-driven disorder.
• Crypto (+2.92 percent | prev −0.84 percent)
  Crypto rebounded modestly, led by Bitcoin. The move appears corrective rather than trend-forming, but it marks a pause in recent deterioration.
• Grains (−2.50 percent | prev +1.43 percent)
  Grains rolled over sharply. Weakness across corn, wheat, soybeans and oats reflects failed stabilisation attempts rather than fresh downside acceleration.
• Meats (+2.00 percent | prev −0.01 percent)
  Meats strengthened, led by feeder and live cattle. This remains a structurally resilient cluster, offering steady trend behaviour with low volatility.
• Bonds (−0.26 percent | prev +0.10 percent)
  Rates drifted lower across the curve. Trends remain shallow and range bound, offering persistence but little directional conviction.
• Energy (−0.75 percent | prev +1.89 percent)
  Energy softened. Natural gas reversed sharply after last week’s surge, while crude and refined products continued to lack cohesion.
• Metals (−8.62 percent | prev +13.62 percent)
  Metals experienced a violent reversal. Palladium, platinum, silver and gold all sold off heavily, marking a decisive break in December’s dominant leadership cluster.
• Soft Commodities (−0.44 percent | prev +1.94 percent)
  Soft commodities weakened modestly. Sugar, cocoa and cotton extended recent declines, while coffee’s stabilisation failed to develop further.
• Equity Index (−0.17 percent | prev +0.85 percent)
  Equities slipped slightly. Major indices remain structurally intact, but upside momentum has stalled.
• Currency (−0.36 percent | prev +0.63 percent)
  FX drifted lower, continuing to express balance rather than sustained directional bias.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Orange Juice +3.93 percent
  Orange juice extended its advance, continuing to express idiosyncratic strength within soft commodities.
• Feeder Cattle +3.71 percent
  Feeder cattle strengthened further, reinforcing the meats complex as a stable trend sleeve.
• Bitcoin +2.92 percent
  Bitcoin rebounded after recent weakness. Structure remains corrective rather than trend-aligned.
• Live Cattle +2.84 percent
  Live cattle followed feeder cattle higher, maintaining a persistent, low-volatility uptrend.

Top Losers

• Palladium −16.20 percent
  Palladium collapsed, decisively ending its December breakout and leading the metals reversal.
• Platinum −13.44 percent
  Platinum reversed sharply, confirming the loss of metals leadership.
• Silver −6.39 percent
  Silver broke down from its recent extension, erasing a large portion of last week’s gains.
• Gold −4.63 percent
  Gold rolled over, completing a coordinated metals unwind rather than an isolated correction.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

Equities

Equity positioning remained largely unchanged. Trends held structurally, but the absence of acceleration favoured patience over rotation.

Metals

Metals shifted from dominant contributor to primary drag. Long exposure faced sharp adverse movement, reinforcing the importance of disciplined exits and fixed risk sizing.

Energy

Energy exposure remained selective. The reversal in natural gas reduced recent gains, while crude and products continued to lack trend quality.

Soft Commodities and Meats

Meats provided positive contribution and structural stability. Soft commodities remained rotational, with selective opportunities but low cluster cohesion.

Rates and FX

Rates and currencies continued to offer limited opportunity. Positioning remained light due to shallow trends and weak persistence.

Crypto

Crypto exposure remained small. The rebound improved near-term structure but did not justify increased allocation.

Final Reflections – New Year, Old Rules

The opening week of January delivered a clean lesson in regime humility.

Three observations define the week:

1. Leadership can disappear faster than it forms.
   The metals unwind was swift and decisive, reminding us that even the strongest trends remain conditional.
2. Breadth is improving, but conviction is still forming.
   The rise in the TTU Trend Barometer reflects expanding participation, though leadership remains selective.
3. Volatility compression does not guarantee persistence.
   Even in calm conditions, exits matter. Stability does not prevent rotation.

This was not a breakdown week, nor a renewal week. It was a reset. For systematic trend followers, the message is unchanged as the calendar turns. Risk must remain small, patience must remain intact, and exits must be respected without interpretation.

The year may be new, but the rules are not.

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List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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