Trend Following - Week in Review - January 23, 2026

"Natural Gas Posts Historic Surge as Metals Extend Rally"

This Week in Trend – 23 January 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 23 January 2026.

The story of the week was natural gas's historic surge. The commodity rallied approximately +70% as an extreme Arctic outbreak drove heating demand expectations sharply higher—the largest weekly gain in records dating back to 1990. This extraordinary move propelled the energy complex to sector leadership despite modest gains elsewhere in the group.

Meanwhile, the metals complex continued its powerful rally for the third consecutive week. Silver surged another 16.63%, platinum exploded 19.4%, palladium leapt 12.39%, and gold added a substantial 8.44%. The breadth of strength across precious and industrial metals remains remarkable.

Equities reversed course decisively, with all seven tracked indices posting losses. The VIX surged 9.47%, reflecting rising uncertainty. Bitcoin declined 6.61%, retreating from its recent breakout. Trend conditions remained neutral but showed early signs of momentum improvement, with the TTU Barometer's rate of change turning positive.

This was a week of historic energy moves and continued precious metals strength.

SG Trend Index Performance

Month to date: +4.76 percent

Year to date: +4.76 percent

Last week:

Month to date: +4.97 percent

Year to date: +4.97 percent

The SG Trend Index pulled back slightly from last week's +4.97% to +4.76%, a modest 21 basis point decline. Despite this small retracement, the index remains comfortably positive for January, reflecting the continued contribution from metals and energy trends. The pullback likely reflects the mixed equity performance and some profit-taking in positions that had run hard in recent weeks. Importantly, the index remains well above the flat line, indicating that systematic trend-following strategies continue to capture opportunities in the current environment.

TTU Trend Barometer

Current reading: 45 percent

Previous reading: 45 percent

10-day rate of change: Rising Weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer held steady at 45%, remaining in the middle of neutral territory. The "Overall Trend Strength" indicator remains at "Neutral," but the reading maintains comfortable distance from the 40% threshold that would indicate a weak environment.

The silver lining is the rate of change. After weeks of decline and stabilisation, the 10-day rate of change has turned to "Rising Weakly." This is an important inflection—while the absolute level remains in the lower half of neutral, the direction of travel has shifted positive. This suggests that trend breadth may be beginning to expand rather than contract.

At 45% with a rising rate of change, the barometer describes an environment that is improving from the margin. The extreme moves in natural gas and metals are contributing to trend formation, but broader participation remains elusive. A sustained push above 50% would confirm genuine trend environment improvement.

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Asset Class	% Move	Prev
Energy	+15.42%*	+0.29%
Metal	+11.74%	+3.09%
Volatility Index	+9.47%	+3.06%
Currency	+1.83%	−0.05%
Grains	+1.52%	+0.08%
Meats	+0.79%	+1.02%
Bonds	+0.01%	−0.23%
Equity Index	−0.96%	+0.21%
Soft Commodity	−3.22%	+0.94%
Crypto	−6.61%	+5.81%
*Energy average uses corrected Natural Gas figure (~+70%) rather than erroneous Finviz data (+272%)

Source: Finviz.com

1. Energy (+15.42 percent | prev +0.29 percent): Energy surged this week, driven by natural gas's historic ~70% rally—the largest weekly gain since 1990. An extreme Arctic outbreak sent temperatures plunging across most of the US, sharply lifting heating demand expectations and triggering massive short-covering. Freeze-off risks in southern producing regions added supply concerns. Elsewhere, heating oil gained 9.82%, crude oil Brent rose 3.37%, WTI added 3.27%, and gasoline RBOB climbed 3.76%. The sector transformed from a modest contributor to sector leadership.
2. Metal (+11.74 percent | prev +3.09 percent): Metals extended their dominance for the third consecutive week. Silver surged another 16.63%, continuing its blistering rally. Platinum exploded 19.4%, palladium leapt 12.39%, and gold added a substantial 8.44%. Even copper, the laggard, gained 1.82%. The entire complex is in powerful uptrends with broad participation.
3. Volatility Index (+9.47 percent | prev +3.06 percent): The VIX surged nearly 10%, its largest weekly gain in months. This spike reflects the broad equity selloff and increasing uncertainty in risk markets. Elevated implied volatility signals defensive positioning and hedging demand.
4. Currency (+1.83 percent | prev −0.05 percent): Currencies strengthened broadly against the US dollar, which fell 1.96%. The NZD led with a 3.43% gain, followed by the AUD (+3.17%), CHF (+2.94%), and EUR (+2.01%). Dollar weakness was the dominant theme as risk sentiment shifted.
5. Grains (+1.52 percent | prev +0.08 percent): Grains posted solid gains with broad participation. Soybean meal rebounded sharply with a 3.48% gain after last week's collapse. Wheat added 2.36%, soybean oil rose 2.51%, and corn gained 1.41%. The sector reversed last week's divergence with more unified performance.
6. Meats (+0.79 percent | prev +1.02 percent): Meats continued their modest positive streak. Live cattle led with a 1.29% gain, feeder cattle added 1.0%, while lean hogs were essentially flat at 0.08%. The sector remains range-bound with limited trending behaviour.
7. Bonds (+0.01 percent | prev −0.23 percent): Bonds stabilised near unchanged after last week's decline. The 30-year bond gained 0.05%, the 5-year note rose 0.01%, the 10-year was flat, and the 2-year note slipped 0.03%. Yields have paused their recent rise, offering a respite for duration exposure.
8. Equity Index (−0.96 percent | prev +0.21 percent): Equities reversed last week's mixed gains with uniform losses. The Russell 2000 fell 0.73%, S&P 500 dropped 0.62%, DJIA declined 0.74%, and Nasdaq 100 edged down 0.03%. European indices underperformed: Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.23%, DAX dropped 1.65%, and Nikkei 225 lost 1.71%. The risk-off tone was global.
9. Soft Commodity (−3.22 percent | prev +0.94 percent): Softs reversed sharply lower, led by cocoa's devastating 17.04% collapse—the week's worst performer. Lumber continued its decline with a 2.71% loss, sugar fell 1.54%, and cotton dropped 1.27%. Orange juice (+4.34%) was the sole bright spot, while coffee declined 1.08%.
10. Crypto (−6.61 percent | prev +5.81 percent): Bitcoin gave back all of last week's gains and then some, falling 6.61%. The decline erased the breakout move and suggests the consolidation pattern may not yet be complete. The digital asset space faced headwinds alongside the broader risk-off environment.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Note: The Finviz chart displays an erroneous +272% for Natural Gas. The actual weekly gain was approximately +70%, which remains the largest weekly increase since 1990. The analysis below uses the corrected figure.

Source: Finviz.com

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

1. Natural Gas ~+70 percent

Natural gas posted its largest weekly gain since 1990, surging approximately 70% as an extreme Arctic outbreak drove heating demand expectations sharply higher. Forecasts for sustained below-normal temperatures through early February, combined with freeze-off risks in southern producing regions, triggered massive short-covering. Prices approached $5.50/MMBtu, levels not seen since December 2022.

2. Platinum +19.4 percent

Platinum exploded higher, joining the precious metals rally with conviction. The industrial metal's surge reflects both safe-haven flows and improving demand expectations. The move establishes platinum as a key participant in the 2026 metals theme.

3. Silver +16.63 percent

Silver extended its remarkable run for a third consecutive week, posting another double-digit gain. The metal has now gained approximately 50% in the first three weeks of January, validating the powerful uptrend. Chart structure remains impeccable with higher highs and higher lows.

4. Palladium +12.39 percent

Palladium reversed last week's decline with authority, surging over 12%. The move suggests the recent pullback was a buying opportunity within an emerging uptrend. All five tracked metals posted gains this week, a rare show of unanimous strength.

Top Losers

1. Cocoa −17.04 percent

Cocoa's collapse accelerated dramatically, plunging over 17% in a single week. The contract continues its brutal descent from the 2024 highs, now trading near $4,200 after peaking above $12,000. The downtrend shows no signs of exhaustion.

2. Bitcoin −6.61 percent

Bitcoin retreated sharply, erasing last week's breakout gains. The decline returns prices to the lower end of the recent range near $89,000. The failed breakout suggests more consolidation may be needed before the next leg higher.

3. Lumber −2.71 percent

Lumber continued its decline after last week's sharp reversal, giving back more of its recent gains. The sector remains in a challenging bottoming process with unclear trend direction.

4. USD −1.96 percent

The US dollar was the weakest currency, falling nearly 2% against the basket. Dollar weakness supported gains across most other currencies and commodities priced in dollars. The move reflects shifting rate expectations and risk sentiment.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

Energy

Energy positioning delivered exceptional returns this week, driven primarily by natural gas. The historic ~70% move rewarded long exposure handsomely, though position sizing typically limits the absolute contribution of any single commodity. Heating oil and crude oil longs added further contribution. The sector transformed from a modest contributor to the week's dominant driver alongside metals.

Metals

Metals remained the consistent performer for the third consecutive week. Long exposure across gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all contributed positively. The unanimous strength across the complex—with even copper posting gains—rewarded broad sector allocation. Silver's continued surge validated maintaining full trend-following exposure despite extended price levels.

Equities

Equity positioning faced headwinds as all tracked indices declined. Long exposure to Russell 2000 and S&P 500 generated modest losses, while European indices underperformed further. The rise in VIX suggests volatility strategies may have offered some offset. The broad-based weakness underscores the importance of diversification beyond equity beta.

Grains

Grains positioning contributed positively this week, reversing last week's challenges. Soybean meal's sharp rebound rewarded holders who maintained positions through the prior week's weakness. Wheat, corn, and soybean oil all added to gains. The sector's more unified behaviour simplified position management.

Soft Commodities

Soft commodity positioning faced significant challenges, with cocoa's collapse the primary detractor for long positions. Short exposure to cocoa, where held, delivered exceptional returns. Orange juice longs provided partial offset. The extreme divergence within the sector continues to demand careful position-level management.

Rates and FX

Rates exposure was essentially flat, with bonds stabilising near unchanged. Currency positions benefited from dollar weakness, with long exposure to NZD, AUD, and EUR all contributing. The clearer directional move in FX offered better opportunities than recent weeks' rangebound trading.

Crypto

Bitcoin's decline detracted from portfolio performance, giving back last week's gains. The failed breakout suggests the position may require patience as the consolidation pattern extends. Allocation to the digital asset space remains warranted given the broader trend structure, but short-term volatility persists.

Final Reflections – Natural Gas Posts Historic Surge as Metals Extend Rally

The fourth week of January delivered a historic energy move and continued validation of the precious metals theme.

Three observations define the week:

• Natural gas posted its largest weekly gain since 1990. A ~70% weekly move driven by Arctic weather and supply concerns is extraordinary by any measure. Forecasts for sustained below-normal temperatures through early February, combined with freeze-off risks in southern producing regions, triggered massive short-covering. This demonstrates that trend-following continues to capture extreme outliers when they occur.
• Metals remain the story of 2026. Silver's third consecutive week of double-digit gains (+16.63%) extends an already remarkable run. Platinum and palladium joined the party with massive moves. Gold added 8.44%. The entire complex is trending powerfully, rewarding systematic exposure.
• Equities reversed as defensive signals emerge. All seven equity indices posted losses, with the VIX surging 9.47%. This broad-based weakness, combined with rising volatility, suggests risk-off sentiment is building. The strength in gold and silver alongside equity weakness is a classic defensive rotation.

The TTU Barometer held steady at 45%, with the rate of change turning positive for the first time in weeks. This suggests that while trend breadth remains moderate, conditions may be improving at the margin.

Natural gas surges. Metals extend. The trend environment stabilises with improving momentum.

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List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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