Trend Following - Week in Review - January 9, 2026

“Metals Roar Back”

This Week in Trend – 9 January 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 9 January 2026.

The story of the week was redemption. After last week's violent reversal crushed the metals complex, precious metals staged an aggressive recovery, with silver, palladium, and platinum leading the entire futures universe. What looked like the end of a trend proved instead to be a shakeout before continuation.

Equities followed through on their stabilisation, with the Nikkei 225 surging nearly 5% and all major indices posting gains. Grains found footing after last week's selloff. Meanwhile, soft commodities remained mixed, with cocoa crashing another 9.5% even as orange juice rallied over 4%.

This was a week of trend reassertion, not rotation.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month to date: +1.96 percent
• Year to date: +1.96 percent

Last week:

• Month to date: 0.00 percent
• Year to date: 0.00 percent

The SG Trend Index advanced nearly 2% in the first full trading week of the year, a strong start that reflects the broad improvement in trend conditions across multiple asset classes. The metals recovery was the primary driver, but gains were supported by strength in equities and grains.

The contrast with last week is striking. What began as a reset has quickly transitioned into trend reassertion. Systematic strategies that maintained discipline through the volatility were rewarded as markets found direction.

TTU Trend Barometer

• Current reading: 36 percent
• Previous reading: 50 percent
• 10-day rate of change: Falling weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer fell sharply to 36 percent, dropping back into the weak environment zone. The "Overall Trend Strength" indicator now reads "Moderately Weak," a notable retreat from last week's neutral positioning.

This decline is surprising given the strong performance in metals and equities. It suggests that while headline moves were impressive, broad trend participation did not expand. The improvement remains concentrated rather than widespread.

At 36 percent with a falling rate of change, the barometer describes an environment where trends remain selective and fragile. This is a regime that continues to reward patience and discipline over aggressive positioning.

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

• Metals (+7.52 percent | prev −8.62 percent): Metals staged a dramatic comeback. Silver surged over 12%, palladium added nearly 11%, and gold pushed to new highs. Last week's reversal proved to be a correction within a trend, not a trend termination.
• Equity Index (+2.99 percent | prev −0.17 percent): Equities accelerated higher. The Nikkei 225 led with a 4.85% gain, while US indices followed through on last week's stabilisation. All major benchmarks posted positive returns.
• Grains (+2.54 percent | prev −2.50 percent): Grains reversed last week's decline. Rough rice led with a 6% surge, with canola, soybean meal, and wheat also contributing. The selloff appears to have found a floor.
• Crypto (+0.50 percent | prev +2.92 percent): Bitcoin posted a modest gain, consolidating after last week's rebound. Price remains rangebound near $90,000 with no clear directional bias.
• Meats (+0.39 percent | prev +2.00 percent): Meats posted modest gains, led by lean hogs. The sector continues to offer structural stability with low volatility trend behaviour.
• Volatility Index (+0.14 percent | prev −4.27 percent): The VIX stabilised after last week's compression, essentially unchanged. Volatility remains suppressed, consistent with risk-on positioning across equities.
• Bonds (+0.13 percent | prev −0.26 percent): Bonds were mixed but slightly positive on aggregate. The long end outperformed with 30-year bonds up 0.71%, while shorter maturities were fractionally lower.
• Energy (−0.28 percent | prev −0.75 percent): Energy was the most divergent sector. Gasoline RBOB led with a 4.52% gain, crude oil rallied over 2.5%, but natural gas collapsed 13.18%, dragging the sector into negative territory.
• Currency (−0.53 percent | prev −0.36 percent): The US dollar continued to strengthen, with all major currencies declining against it. CAD was the weakest, down 1.32%. FX trends remain shallow and directionless.
• Soft Commodity (−0.73 percent | prev −0.44 percent): Softs extended their weakness. Cocoa crashed another 9.52% and lumber fell 1.40%. Orange juice provided a bright spot with a 4.15% gain, but not enough to offset the broader decline.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Silver +12.36 percent: Silver roared back from last week's 6.39% decline, surging to new highs near $80. The metal led the entire futures complex and validated the underlying trend strength.
• Palladium +10.79 percent: Palladium recovered aggressively after last week's 16.20% collapse. The volatility remains extreme, but the trend structure has been restored.
• Platinum +6.59 percent: Platinum joined the metals rally, reclaiming much of the ground lost in last week's 13.44% selloff.
• Rough Rice +6.03 percent: Rough rice surged, providing idiosyncratic strength within the grains complex and emerging as a standout performer.

Top Losers

• Natural Gas −13.18 percent: Natural gas collapsed, erasing recent gains and dragging the energy sector into negative territory despite strength in crude and refined products.
• Cocoa −9.52 percent: Cocoa's decline accelerated, continuing what has become a persistent downtrend. The contract has fallen from over $12,000 to below $5,500.
• Lumber −1.40 percent: Lumber continued its grind lower, extending the weakness that has characterised the contract in recent months.
• CAD −1.32 percent: The Canadian dollar was the weakest major currency, reflecting continued US dollar strength and commodity-linked pressure.

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

Metals

Metals shifted from last week's primary drag back to a dominant contributor. Long exposure that survived the reversal was rewarded with aggressive follow-through. The volatility underscores both the opportunity and the risk inherent in concentrated positions.

Equities

Equity positioning contributed positively across all major indices. The broad-based rally validated existing long exposure and supports continued allocation.

Energy

Energy positioning faced mixed results. Crude oil and refined product longs performed well, but natural gas exposure faced significant adverse movement. The sector requires selective positioning given the divergent behaviour.

Grains

Grains contributed positively after finding stabilisation. Rough rice emerged as a standout, and the broader recovery suggests opportunities are developing.

Soft Commodities

Soft commodity exposure remained challenging. The continued weakness in cocoa reinforces the need for caution, though orange juice provided a positive offset.

Rates and FX

Rates and currencies continued to offer limited opportunity. Trends remain shallow and range-bound, keeping allocation light.

Crypto

Crypto exposure remained minimal. Bitcoin's rangebound behaviour near $90,000 does not yet justify increased allocation.

Final Reflections –  Metals Roar Back

The second week of January delivered a powerful reminder that trends can reassert as quickly as they correct.

Three observations define the week:

• Corrections are not terminations: Last week's metals reversal looked like the end of December's leadership. This week proved it was a shakeout. Discipline through drawdowns was rewarded.
• The trend environment remains challenging: Despite strong moves in metals and equities, the TTU Barometer fell to 36% with a weakening rate of change, indicating that broad trend participation remains elusive. Leadership is concentrated, not widespread.
• Divergence creates opportunity: Energy's split personality, crude strength versus natural gas weakness, and the ongoing collapse in cocoa demonstrate that selectivity remains essential.

This was a week of trend reassertion. For systematic trend followers, the message is clear: respect the process, trust the signals, and remember that the darkest hour often comes just before dawn.

The metals roared back. The trends are alive.

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List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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