Trend Following - Week in Review - July 11, 2025

“The footprints are sticking.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your weekly pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

This past week offered more signs of structural improvement. While not a runaway breakout, there is evidence of traction. Metals continue to fire. Crypto surged. Meats quietly built momentum. Meanwhile, grains stalled after last week’s strength, and softs delivered a shock reversal — but this time, in the opposite direction.

The broad takeaway? Trend structure is returning, but participation is rotating.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month-to-date (as of July 10): +0.06%
• Year-to-date: -9.94%

(Previous week MTD: -0.11% | YTD: -10.09%)

A mildly positive start to July. The SG Trend Index clawed back some ground, and while not a breakout, it reflects the slowly stabilizing environment.

TTU Trend Barometer: 55 Percent – Strong

• Previous reading: 57 Percent
• 10-day rate of change: Rising Weakly

The Trend Barometer pulled back slightly to 55 percent but remains strong with a positive tilt. The improvement has paused, but trend conditions are still healthier than two weeks ago. The broader structure remains supportive — especially in metals, crypto, and parts of energy and meats.

“Fifty-five means the machines are still alert, just waiting for clarity.”

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

The standout gains came from the grains complex, with solid support from metals and energy. Soft commodities were the major drag, offsetting much of the portfolio lift from other sectors.

Asset Class Breakdown – Reversals and Continuations

• Energy: +2.03% (Previous: +1.21%)
  Follow‑through emerged in crude products. WTI, Brent, and Heating Oil rallied strongly off their bases. The breakout in Heating Oil from last week now has confirmation. Natural Gas stayed choppy.
• Metals: +6.73% (Previous: +1.28%)
  One of the strongest sectors again. Platinum, palladium, and silver surged. Gold remains trend supportive. This is a textbook example of a healthy trend cluster.
• Equities: –0.17% (Previous: +0.18%)
  Momentum slowed. U.S. indices paused just beneath highs, while the Russell 2000 rolled over. DAX and Euro Stoxx both declined. Equity trends are showing signs of fatigue across the board.
• Soft Commodities: +5.11% (Previous: –3.39%)
  A sharp turnaround. Orange Juice soared +31.5%, reversing last week’s carnage. Sugar, cocoa, and lumber also rose. Coffee was flat, but overall the softs delivered strong upside surprise.
• Grains: –3.53% (Previous: +3.44%)
  A full reversal. Canola, corn, and oats broke down hard. Soybeans and wheat extended their slides. A week ago, this sector looked trend‑ready. This week, trend signals likely stopped out.
• Meats: +2.66% (Previous: +0.20%)
  Steady climbers. Feeder and live cattle continue to grind higher. Lean hogs pulled back but remain in structure. This sector has become a silent contributor.
• Bonds: –0.41% (Previous: –0.29%)
  Still directionless. The entire curve drifted lower. 30‑year led the way down, with no real conviction across the board. Bonds remain a background player for now.
• Currencies: –0.58% (Previous: +0.25%)
  A muted but red week. USD ticked higher while EUR, JPY, GBP, and others weakened slightly. FX lacks trend conviction in either direction. Models likely remain lightly exposed.
• Crypto: +7.00% (Previous: +0.60%)
  Bitcoin rallied sharply from consolidation, closing near highs. This is one of the few clear trending assets right now. Long positions from earlier signals are paying off.
• Volatility Index: –5.57% (Previous: –0.54%)
  We don’t trade volatility directly, but we watch it closely. The VIX continued to grind lower this week, falling 5.57 percent and sitting near its lowest levels of the year. Despite mild weakness in equities, implied volatility remains subdued — reinforcing a stable, risk-on backdrop. For trend followers, low and falling volatility often precedes breakout conditions, especially when paired with directional moves in other assets. It’s not a signal in itself, but it tells us the waters are calm — and calm waters invite movement.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Orange Juice: +31.5% – Monster reversal, reclaiming trend ground
• Palladium / Copper / Bitcoin: +12.31% / +8.61% / +7.00%
• Platinum / Silver / Feeder Cattle: +6.55% / +5.37% / +5.26%
• Heating Oil / Crude Products: +4.06% to +3.41%

Top Losers

• Canola / Corn / Soybeans: –5.65% / –2.75% / –8.25% – Grains broadly reversed
• VIX: –5.57% – Continued collapse in implied volatility
• GBP / JPY / CAD: Modest currency declines
• Wheat / Oats / Soymeal: –9.00% / –8.50% / –2.38% – Trends invalidated

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

• Energy: Now trending. The follow‑through in Heating Oil is joined by WTI and Brent. Long positions initiated last week are likely performing. Natural Gas remains the exception with no clear trend.
• Metals: Still the portfolio’s core strength. Platinum and palladium broke higher with volume. Silver also made a decisive move. These charts are the definition of trending structure.
• Grains: An abrupt breakdown. Last week’s breakouts in corn, oats, and canola were all reversed. This is classic whipsaw terrain. Models were likely stopped out or reduced.
• Softs: Explosive upside. Orange Juice and sugar flipped from short candidates to long signals. Cocoa held its bounce. This sector continues to offer outsized moves — both ways.
• Equities: U.S. indices paused, and some like Russell 2000 reversed lower. DAX and Euro Stoxx slipped. Models likely tightened stops. This sector is approaching a potential turning point.
• Bonds: Lacking signal. All durations are in mid‑range consolidations. Treasuries remain choppy. Portfolio exposure likely flat or passive.
• Currencies: Mixed to slightly bearish. The USD edged higher but without force. No major breakout or breakdowns across pairs. Systems likely remain light or flat.
• Crypto: Clear breakout. Bitcoin moved strongly above resistance. Models long from prior entries may be adding. This is one of the few clean directional trades in the portfolio.
• Volatility: The VIX continues to decline, confirming risk‑on but offering no signal.

Final Reflections – Rotation and Structure

This week was about rotation, not retreat. Grains and equities faded, but crypto, metals, and softs stepped up. Structure is still present — just not in the same places as last week.

The TTU Trend Barometer slipped slightly to 55, reflecting some of this churn, but the big picture remains positive. The SG Trend Index inched forward. Charts are still providing clean entries in some sectors.

For systematic traders, this is a reminder that edge emerges in clusters. Stay with the strong. Exit the weak. Let the market tell the story, one breakout at a time.

 

 

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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