Trend Following - Week in Review— July 3, 2026

"Risk Appetite Returns: the Equity Indices and Metals Rebound, Soft Commodities Lead Again as Orange Juice Surges, Volatility Collapses, and the Barometer Climbs to 64% and Very Strong as the SG Trend Index Slips Again"

This Week in Trend – 3 July 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 3 July 2026.

The week rebounded across most of the board, reversing much of the prior week's decline. Metals recovered to +2.46%, Silver up 5.26% and Palladium 4.27% as the precious complex bounced back, and the Equity Indices resumed their advance at +1.92%, the DAX up 4.46% and the Euro Stoxx 50 3.02% while the US indices firmed back toward record territory. Soft Commodities led the board again at +5.20%, this week carried by Orange Juice's 20.32% surge and Coffee's 8.97% rise rather than by Cocoa, which reversed to -4.02%. Bitcoin bounced 4.84% after months of decline and the VIX fell 8.18% as equities recovered, the largest single move on the board. Against the advance, Bonds eased across the curve at -0.69% and the Meats fell 1.47% as both cattle contracts rolled lower. Contract-level breadth flipped to 29 of 49 contracts higher, with 20 lower and none unchanged, against 19 higher, 30 lower and none unchanged the week before.

Inside the complex the leadership sat on the upside this week, a near mirror of the week before. The Equity Indices firmed across the board, all seven contracts higher, the European indices leading while the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 climbed back from last week's pullback and only the Russell 2000 and the Nikkei 225 lagged near flat. Metals rose across all five contracts, Silver, Palladium and Gold recovering the ground they had given up while Copper and Platinum firmed more modestly. Energy split: the refined products rallied hard, Heating Oil up 4.98% and Gasoline RBOB 4.50%, while the crude band stayed soft, Crude Oil WTI off 0.65% and Crude Oil Brent 0.87%, so the sector average of +1.22% masked a two-way move. Soft Commodities led on Orange Juice and Coffee even as Cocoa reversed sharply, and Grains finished near flat as Oats jumped 6.52% against declines in Soybean Oil and Rough Rice. The dollar softened, the USD index down 0.50% as the majors firmed, Bonds eased across the curve with the long end weakest, and the Meats fell as Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle both dropped more than 3%.

Trend Indicators:  Barometer Climbs to 64% and Very Strong, SG Trend Index Slips Again

TTU Trend Barometer: 64%, up from 55% last week, with the overall trend strength classification moving from Strong up to Very Strong as the reading pushed well past the 55% threshold and further into the favourable band. The 10-day rate of change reads Rising Weakly, unchanged from last week's pace even as the weekly level rose again. The five-week sequence now reads 43, 43, 45, 55, 64: the reading rose 9 points this week, extending the prior week's 10-point rise and lifting from the favourable boundary further into favourable territory.

The 9-point rise came as trend strength built on a broad recovery rather than the downside declines that had lifted it the week before. The Equity Indices resumed their advance from record territory, the precious metals rebounded, Bitcoin bounced and volatility collapsed, a set of firm, persistent moves that carried the share of markets generating medium-to-strong trends higher. The barometer measures whether markets are trending, not whether those trends match the ones a portfolio already holds or which way they point, so this week's rise reflects more markets moving with force, most of them higher, where last week's rise had reflected markets moving lower. Orange Juice and Coffee ran hard on the upside while Cocoa, Rough Rice and the cattle contracts reversed the moves they had made the week before, and a handful of grains and currencies chopped, but on balance the count of strongly trending markets rose again. The Rising Weakly rate of change holds at last week's pace even as the weekly level climbed, so the near-term read still points higher but at a weak, steady pace rather than an accelerating one: at 64% the level now sits well inside the favourable band rather than at its lower edge.

SG Trend Index: -0.74% month to date for July and +8.32% year to date as of 3 July, with June now closed. That compares with -1.25% MTD for June and +9.03% YTD at last week's close: the year-to-date figure gave back roughly 0.71 of a percentage point over the week, a slightly deeper move than the 0.50 of a point it shed the week before, and the new month opened at -0.74%. The give-back fits the week's shape less obviously than last week's did, because the market reversed: the Equity Indices climbed back from records and the precious metals rebounded, moves that would have helped books positioned long in those trends, yet the index still slipped. The cost sat in the reversals. Cocoa swung from a 20.25% surge to a 4.02% decline, Rough Rice from an 8.32% gain to a 1.19% fall, and both cattle contracts rolled from firm to sharply lower, so continuation exposure built during last week's moves was caught as those moves turned. The refined energy products ran hard against any short held in the complex, Heating Oil up 4.98% and Gasoline RBOB 4.50%, while the crude band stayed soft. This week the barometer firmed while the index slipped for a second week, the two pulling apart again, but the character changed: last week the new strength pointed lower, against long books; this week it pointed higher, yet the sharp week-over-week reversal whipsawed positions faster than the fresh trends could pay. Rising trend strength sitting alongside a softer index is again the divergence to note, and this week it reads as the cost of a turn rather than the direction of one.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Equity Indices (+1.92% | prev -1.63%)

The advance resumed after last week's pause, all seven contracts higher. The DAX led at +4.46% and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 3.02%, with the S&P 500 up 2.10%, the DJIA 1.83% and the Nasdaq 100 1.82%, while the Nikkei 225 and the Russell 2000 lagged near flat at +0.16% and +0.03%. The longer-term picture stays intact: the multi-month uptrend holds and the US indices are climbing back toward the record territory they had touched before last week's pullback, so the week reads as a resumption of the advance rather than a fresh breakout. The European indices led this week where the megacaps had led the pullback the week before, a rotation within the sector as it recovered, with only the small caps and the Nikkei 225 left behind.

Energy (+1.22% | prev -3.18%)

The sector firmed on a sharp split between the refined products and the crude band. Heating Oil rose 4.98% and Gasoline RBOB 4.50%, with Ethanol up 0.37%, while Crude Oil WTI fell 0.65%, Crude Oil Brent 0.87% and Natural Gas 1.04%. Zooming out, the refined products are bouncing off the lower part of their ranges while crude continues to press near the bottom of the decline it has traced for weeks, so the sector average of +1.22% sits on top of a two-way move rather than a broad recovery. The refined products ran against the persistent short in the complex this week, while the crude band stayed soft and Natural Gas eased, the split leaving the sector higher on average but far from uniformly firm.

Metals (+2.46% | prev -5.54%)

The complex rebounded, all five contracts higher and the precious side leading the recovery. Silver rose 5.26%, with Palladium up 4.27% and Gold 2.22%, while Platinum and Copper firmed more modestly at +0.28% and +0.27%. Structurally the precious complex is recovering a portion of the sharp decline it had made the week before, Silver bouncing off the level it had fallen to and Gold firming back from its pullback, though both moves read so far as a recovery within the larger pullback from the highs rather than a return to the earlier advance. Copper held near the top of its range and firmed with the sector, its uptrend still the firmest of the five.

Soft Commodities (+5.20% | prev +1.96%)

The sector led the board again, this week carried by Orange Juice and Coffee rather than Cocoa. Orange Juice surged 20.32%, the largest single move on the board, with Coffee up 8.97%, Sugar 5.32%, Lumber 0.40% and Cotton 0.19%, while Cocoa reversed to -4.02%. Five of six contracts rose, and the leadership passed from Cocoa, which had carried the sector the week before, to Orange Juice, which ran the other way from the new lows it had been pressing toward. The weekly charts show Orange Juice spiking hard off the bottom of a long decline and Coffee firming from lower levels, while Cocoa gave back part of its two-week surge, the reversal that had looked like it might be turning into more than a bounce stalling this week. The split that has run through this sector held, but the contracts on either side of it changed places.

Grains (+0.05% | prev +0.47%)

The sector finished near flat, the split flipping again as Oats led and the oilseeds and rice lagged. Oats jumped 6.52%, the largest move in the sector, while Soybeans, Canola, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn all eased in a tight band between -0.07% and -0.29%, and Rough Rice fell 1.19% and Soybean Oil 3.98%. On the weekly timeframe Oats is bouncing sharply higher while Soybean Oil rolled over from the firmer ground it had reached and Rough Rice gave back the sharp gain it had made the week before. The sector average of +0.05% sits on top of that two-way split, one large gainer against a cluster of small declines and two heavier ones, Oats carrying almost the entire sector on its own.

Meats (-1.47% | prev +0.01%)

The sector fell as both cattle contracts rolled lower and only Lean Hogs firmed. Feeder Cattle dropped 3.40% and Live Cattle 3.24%, while Lean Hogs rose 2.23%, the split that runs through this sector widening from the near balance of the week before. The weekly charts show the cattle contracts easing back from the top of the ranges they had held for months, a pullback from firm levels rather than a break of the longer uptrends, while Lean Hogs firmed off the lower ground it had fallen to. The sector average of -1.47% reflects the two cattle declines outweighing the hog bounce, a heavier week for the sector that pulled it from flat into the red.

Bonds (-0.69% | prev +0.47%)

The complex eased across the curve, the long end weakest. The 30 Year Bond fell 1.62%, the 10 Year Note 0.65%, the 5 Year Note 0.39% and the 2 Year Note 0.09%, a clean gradient with the long end softer than the front and the sector average at -0.69%. That reverses the firming across the curve of the week before. The weekly charts show prices easing back from the modest bounce they had made, giving up ground toward the lower part of the range the contracts have traced through the spring, with the long end leading the move lower as equities recovered and risk appetite firmed.

Currencies (+0.47% | prev -0.64%)

The dollar softened while the non-dollar majors firmed broadly, reversing the week before. The USD index fell 0.50%, with NZD leading the gainers at +1.25%, GBP up 1.18%, CHF 0.68%, AUD 0.65%, EUR 0.42% and JPY 0.17%, while CAD eased 0.11%, leaving the sector average at +0.47%. The commodity-linked dollars that had taken the heaviest losses the week before firmed this week, NZD and AUD both higher, while CAD was the lone decliner in the basket. The weekly charts show the USD index giving back part of the recovery it had made through the spring, easing from the upper part of its recent range as the majors firmed across the basket rather than through any single cross.

Volatility, Crypto: The VIX fell 8.18% as the Equity Indices recovered and implied volatility dropped back toward its lows, the largest single move on the board and a sharp reversal of the firming it had made the week before. Bitcoin rose 4.84%, bouncing after a decline that has run for months and firming off the lower part of its range. The weekly chart keeps Bitcoin inside that broader downtrend despite the bounce: where the Equity Indices sit back near record territory, Bitcoin remains well below its late-2025 high, so the weekly gain reads so far as a recovery within the established decline rather than a turn of it. The contract firmed with the broad risk-on tone this week, tracking the recovery in equities and metals more closely than it had during their pullback.

Top Movers

The two lists run in opposite directions by sector. The upside is led by the Soft Commodities, Orange Juice, Coffee and Sugar taking three of the five places, joined by Oats from the grains and Silver from the rebounding metals. The downside is more scattered: the VIX as volatility collapsed, Cocoa reversing its two-week surge, Soybean Oil from the grains, and both cattle contracts from the Meats. Orange Juice's 20.32% gain was the largest single move in the dataset in either direction, a sharp spike off the lows, while the VIX's 8.18% drop led the downside as equities recovered and implied volatility fell back. The contrast is the week in miniature: a broad, largely upside set of gains led by the softs and the rebounding metals against a smaller set of declines concentrated in volatility, the cattle and a pair of contracts reversing the moves they had made the week before.

Portfolio View

The week was a mirror of the prior one, and it cost continuation books in a different way. Where last week's declines had rewarded short exposure, this week the market reversed, and the reversal was the story. The Equity Indices climbed back from records, so long positioning that had been trimmed into last week's pullback was rewarded again, and the precious metals rebounded, helping long exposure that had carried the year's advance, Silver and Palladium the firmest. Against those, the sharp counter-moves cost: Cocoa swung from a 20.25% surge to a 4.02% decline and Rough Rice from an 8.32% gain to a 1.19% fall, so any position that had turned with those moves was caught as they reversed, and both cattle contracts rolled lower, trimming long exposure that had ridden their uptrends. The refined energy products ran hard against the persistent short in the crude complex, Heating Oil and Gasoline RBOB both up sharply, while the crude band itself stayed soft and cushioned the net. The clearest directional contributor cut both ways this week: the equity and metals recovery paid long books, but the abrupt reversal in the contracts that had led last week whipsawed positions faster than the fresh trends could pay. The net was a give-back of roughly 0.71 of a point on the year, a touch deeper than the prior week, as the cost of the turn outweighed the gains from the recovery. The week favoured books quick to turn with the reversal over those still positioned for last week's risk-off move.

Final Reflections

The defining feature of the week was a reversal that lifted trend strength again even as it cost trend followers a second time. The heaviest, most persistent moves sat on the upside this week, the Equity Indices resuming their advance, the precious metals rebounding, Bitcoin bouncing and volatility collapsing, while the largest declines, Cocoa, the cattle and Soybean Oil, came as reversals of the moves those contracts had made the week before. The TTU Barometer firmed to 64%, moving from Strong to Very Strong and pushing well inside the favourable band, yet the SG Trend Index gave back roughly 0.71 of a point to +8.32% year to date and opened the new month at -0.74%, even as contract-level breadth flipped positive at 29 of 49 contracts higher against 20 lower, none unchanged. The market offered more trend strength than trend-follower reward for a second week, but the reason changed.

Last week the new strength pointed lower, against long books; this week it pointed higher, yet the speed of the reversal whipsawed positions built for the week before.

1. The barometer firmed again, this time as most markets rose, the same reading driven by the opposite direction from the week before.

The five-week sequence (43, 43, 45, 55, 64) firmed to 64% this week, up 9 points and extending the prior week's 10-point rise, lifting from the favourable boundary well into favourable territory. It rose as breadth flipped positive, 29 of 49 contracts higher against 20 lower, where last week it had risen even as breadth stayed negative. The point holds either way: the barometer counts how strongly and persistently markets are trending, in either direction, not which way they point, so it can rise on a broad advance this week just as it rose on a broad decline the week before. The Equity Indices climbing from records, the precious metals rebounding, Bitcoin bouncing and volatility collapsing all fed the reading, a set of firm moves running higher where last week's had run lower. The 10-day rate of change reads Rising Weakly, unchanged from last week even as the weekly level climbed, so the near-term tilt still points higher but at a weak, steady pace, with the level at 64% now sitting well inside the favourable band. Rising trend strength says more markets are moving decisively; portfolio returns depend on whether those decisive moves are the ones a book already holds.

2. The week's largest moves were reversals, the gains and losses trading places with the week before, a pattern that costs trend followers even as it lifts the barometer.

Orange Juice and the rebounding metals produced the largest gains this week, while Cocoa, the cattle and Soybean Oil produced the largest declines, and several of those moves reversed the ones the same contracts had made the week before. Cocoa ran from a 20.25% surge to a 4.02% fall, Rough Rice from an 8.32% gain to a 1.19% decline, and the cattle rolled from firm to sharply lower, while the Equity Indices and the precious metals recovered the ground they had given up. For a trend follower the distinction is the point: a reversal is the move most likely to whipsaw a position established on the prior trend, and this week the market was full of them. The barometer reads the persistence of the new moves, so it firmed; the index reads the profit and loss of positions carried through the turn, so it slipped. The clearest, most persistent trends this week sat on the upside, but the speed with which they replaced last week's downside moves is what the week leaves behind.

One question frames the week ahead: does the recovery harden into a sustained trend as the Equity Indices push back to records and the metals extend their rebound, or does the whipsaw continue, last week's risk-off move and this week's risk-on reversal marking a market capable of trending hard in either direction without yet committing to one?

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List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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