Trend Following - Week in Review - July 4, 2025

“A bounce is not a breakout — but it’s a start.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome back to This Week in Trend, your pulse check on global futures and the state of systematic trend following.

Signs of life are returning to trend portfolios. After weeks of noise, the past few sessions brought something more substantial: follow-through. The trend environment improved meaningfully, with clean moves in grains, metals, and parts of the energy complex. Even though not every system may be fully on board yet, the ground underfoot feels a little firmer.

The market is still selective, but finally, some of the signals are sticking.

"Momentum Finds Its Feet"

It was a week of recovery and contrast. Grains surged across the board. Energy clawed back gains with strength in heating oil and crude products. Metals continued their positive drift. Meanwhile, softs crumbled, led by a collapse in cocoa, orange juice, and coffee. Equities added modestly, while bonds and vol were relatively quiet.

The backdrop has improved. Now it’s a question of timing. Can the models capitalize before the next twist?

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month-to-date (as of July 2): -0.11%
• Year-to-date: -10.09%

(Previous week MTD: +0.97% | YTD: -10.48%)

The SG Trend Index slipped slightly to start the new month, giving back some recent gains. Still, the broader trend structure is stabilizing. A neutral open to July, but the underlying environment appears healthier.

TTU Trend Barometer: 57 Percent – Strong Environment

• Previous reading: 50 Percent
• 10-day rate of change: Rising Moderately

The TTU Trend Barometer pushed decisively into “strong” territory this week, reaching 57 percent. That’s the highest reading in over a month. The rise reflects broadening participation across asset classes, and the return of directional structure in grains, metals, and energy.

“Fifty-seven means the machines are waking up."

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

The standout gains came from the grains complex, with solid support from metals and energy. Soft commodities were the major drag, offsetting much of the portfolio lift from other sectors.

Asset Class Breakdown – Reversals and Continuations

• Energy: +1.21% (Previous: -8.44%)
  A rebound in price, but structurally still range-bound. WTI and Brent charts show rallies failing near prior resistance zones. Heating Oil was the clear outlier with a clean upward breakout, but the broader energy trend remains murky.
• Metals: +1.28% (Previous: +3.14%)
  Trend signals are holding. Platinum surged into new highs, and gold remains near its peak. Copper and palladium look less convincing, but the overall metal complex continues to support long signals.
• Equities: +0.18% (Previous: +3.65%)
  Trend fatigue is creeping in. Despite small gains, charts like S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 are showing signs of stalling just below resistance. Nikkei and DAX rolled over, suggesting global breadth is narrowing.
• Soft Commodities: -3.39% (Previous: +1.53%)
  Charts confirm the carnage. Cocoa broke sharply lower with strong follow-through. Coffee and OJ remain in clear downtrends. No ambiguity here. The softs are back in a breakdown regime.
• Grains: +3.44% (Previous: -3.81%)
  A standout. Canola, oats, and corn all broke convincingly higher. Wheat was flat to weak, but the rest of the grain complex now exhibits trending structure. These are trend-worthy breakouts.
• Meats: +0.20% (Previous: +0.57%)
  The strength continues. Live and feeder cattle remain in sustained uptrends. Lean hogs pulled back but didn’t break structure. This sector remains a stealth leader.
• Bonds: -0.29% (Previous: +0.55%)
  Charts show indecision. Minor drift but no trend. Treasuries are consolidating in mid-range territory. Exposure likely minimal.
• Currencies: +0.25% (Previous: +1.00%)
  Some strength in EUR, GBP, and CHF, but not enough for clean trend conviction. The USD is drifting lower, but no dominant directional theme has emerged. Mixed signals across the board.
• Crypto: +0.60% (Previous: +0.60%)
  Bitcoin shows a consolidation just under its recent highs. No breakout yet, but the pattern supports long bias. Sideways action with an upward lean.
• Volatility Index: -0.54% (Previous: -10.77%)
  The VIX is sitting near year-to-date lows. Low and stable, confirming the risk-on backdrop but offering little for trend models.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Oats: +11.92% – Signalling a clean breakout from a period of congestion
• Heating Oil: +7.50% – Fuel-led rebound in energy
• Corn / Platinum / Canola: +4.2% / +4.1% / +3.8% – Strong upward movement
• Wheat / Soybean Oil / Crude Oil Brent: +3.7% / +3.5% / +2.6% – Grains and energy stand out
• Nasdaq 100 / Bitcoin: +0.68% / +0.60% – Modest tech and crypto strength

Top Losers

• Cocoa: -10.52% – Deep reversal after last week’s snapback
• Natural Gas: -9.41% – Trendless and volatile
• Coffee / Orange Juice: -5.82% / -5.25% – Softs turned south sharply
• Nikkei 225 / Rough Rice: -2.01% / -3.10% – Asia and Ags weighed on portfolios

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

• Energy: Mixed signals. Heating Oil gave a valid breakout, but WTI and Brent remain trapped in noisy ranges. Systems that re-entered longs likely only did so in Heating Oil. The rest still need confirmation.
• Metals: A consistent support zone. Platinum is the leader with a decisive breakout. Gold holds trend strength, and silver remains constructive. This sector continues to do the heavy lifting for trend portfolios.
• Grains: Now clearly trending. Oats, canola, corn, and soybeans all exhibit fresh breakouts. Models that rotated long last week are now seeing follow-through. One of the strongest clusters in the portfolio.
• Softs: Decisively broken. Cocoa, coffee, and orange juice are all rolling over sharply with trend-confirming volume. Short setups were likely entered or reinforced mid-week. A rare trend alignment in this often erratic sector.
• Equities: U.S. indices like S&P and Nasdaq are topping out near highs, but showing hesitation. The Nikkei and DAX broke down slightly. A turning point may be near. Some models may be tightening stops or preparing for reversals..
• Bonds: No clear bias. Choppy and stuck in consolidation. Systems with long bond exposure likely remained flat or modestly down this week.
• Currencies: Some directional hints in GBP, EUR, and CHF, but no major breakout. Weak USD helps but doesn’t create strong conviction yet. Most systems remain light in this space.
• Crypto: Bitcoin sits in a flag just below its highs. Trend followers may be holding positions from earlier entries but will need a fresh breakout to scale further. For now, it’s a quiet contributor.
• Volatility: Still in the basement. The VIX is inert, confirming the stable market tone but offering nothing trendable. Best left alone for now.

Final Reflections – The Ground Is Firming

This week felt different.

Not in the headline numbers… the SG Trend Index was flat, and many asset classes only moved modestly … but in the structure. The Trend Barometer jumped to 57. Grains broke cleanly. Metals held firm. Energy found traction in heating oil. And even as softs collapsed, they did so decisively, giving trend systems something tangible to work with.

Momentum is finding its feet, unevenly, selectively, but unmistakably.

We're not in full-blown breakout territory. Bonds are stuck. FX is mixed. Equities are pausing. But the weight of evidence is shifting. The signals are clearer. The participation broader. And the environment, finally, more trend-supportive.

For systematic traders, this is where patience pays. When noise gives way to structure, and structure becomes trend, the edge returns.

The footprints are forming. Let’s see where they lead.

 

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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