Trend Following - Week in Review - June 20, 2025

“When the forest goes quiet, it's not peace. It's a warning.”

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend following.

After the violent reversals of last week, markets eased into a more balanced state. Volatility dropped. Energy remained strong. Softs collapsed. And metals held their ground. While the pace slowed, the message was clear: the trend environment is still unsettled, but systems are beginning to find their feet again.

This was not a week of chaos, but one of quiet sorting.

“Smouldering Moves, Sharper Lines”

Momentum continued in pockets. Energy surged once more, this time offering clearer participation for trend systems. Soft commodities broke apart. Grains stalled. Equities drifted without purpose. Currencies remained tangled in rangebound noise. Metals, on the other hand, held steady and offered stable contribution.

It was not an explosion. It was a slow burn that exposed where the real signals were and where the noise remained.

SG Trend Index Performance

• Month-to-date (as of June 19): +0.25%
• Year-to-date: -11.11%

(Previous week MTD: +1.50% | YTD: -10.00%)

The SG Trend Index gave back ground this week, slipping into mild retreat. Although last week's strong rebound lifted hopes, this week reminded us that the broader environment remains challenging. Year-to-date figures continue to reflect the tough terrain faced by trend-following systems.

TTU Trend Barometer: 45 Percent – Neutral

• Previous reading: 50 Percent
• 10-day rate of change: Rising Weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer edged lower from 50 percent to 45 percent, holding near the midpoint of the spectrum. Trend strength is still present but not widely distributed. Some sectors show strong directional movement, while others remain in limbo. The weak rise in the 10-day rate-of-change offers a hint of optimism, but caution is still warranted.

“Forty-five percent is not cold, but it is not quite warm enough to relax."

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

The largest moves this week came from opposite corners. Energy markets extended their rally. Softs crumbled. Bonds and metals added modest support. Most other asset classes offered little contribution, either positive or negative.

Asset Class Breakdown – Sorting the Field

• Energy: +4.78% (Previous: +6.87%)
  Natural gas and heating oil continued to climb. This time, systems were better positioned and captured more of the upside.
• Metals: +0.41% (Previous: +0.57%)
  A stable week for gold, platinum, and silver. Trends remained intact and supportive.
• Equities: -0.05% (Previous: -1.54%)
  Directionless. Markets moved sideways, offering little for trend models.
• Soft Commodities: -5.71% (Previous: -1.56%)
  The selloff deepened. Orange juice, cocoa, and coffee all broke down sharply.
• Grains: -0.08% (Previous: +1.12%)
  A flat week. Soybean oil held up, but most grain markets lost direction.
• Meats: +0.14% (Previous: -0.76%)
  A mild recovery. Livestock markets showed some stabilization.
• Bonds: +0.26% (Previous: +0.68%)
  Quiet and steady. A modest gain helped balance portfolios.
• Currencies: -0.68% (Previous: +0.34%)
  FX markets reversed. No clear trends emerged.
• Volatility Index: -2.69% (Previous: +13.59%)
  Volatility faded again, removing what little edge short-vol strategies had last week.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

This week’s market action delivered a mix of surprise rallies and sharp reversals. Energy contracts stole the spotlight with explosive gains, while previously trending sectors like meats and softs lost momentum. Below is a snapshot of the standout movers driving system outcomes.

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

• Natural Gas: +8.80 Percent – A strong breakout with broad trend system participation.
• Heating Oil, Gasoline, Brent Crude: +4 to +7 Percent – A continuation of last week’s surge, now with clearer structure.
• Soybean Oil, Wheat, Platinum – Markets that remained steady and contributed positively.

Top Losers

• Orange Juice: -13.86 Percent – A full collapse. Prior parabolic moves gave way to a sharp decline.
• Coffee, Cocoa: -9.00 and -7.81 Percent – Continued reversals. Former trend leaders now in freefall.
• Oats, Corn, Cotton – Grains and fibres were hit across the board.
• Silver, CAD, AUD – Weakness spread into metals and commodity-linked currencies.

Portfolio View - What the Moves Meant for Systems

• Energy: This time, the rally came with better system alignment. WTI, Brent, Heating Oil, and Gasoline all broke cleanly to the upside, and many models that had reversed or flipped long captured meaningful gains. Natural Gas, while less aggressive, maintained its strength. The difference this week was structure—trend followers had time to position, and the trend held.
• Metals: Still consistent, but more nuanced. Platinum continues to lead with vertical strength. Gold and Silver remain constructive, though showing minor pullbacks. Systems with long exposure across the complex still benefited, but short setups in the weaker metals like Palladium were also in play. Overall, a supportive sector, but with divergence emerging.
• Soft Commodities: A painful unwind for long-biased systems. Cocoa, Coffee, and Orange Juice broke lower in size, completing their transition from outlier leaders to deep corrections. Trend followers positioned short likely caught the reversal, but those still holding long were punished. The breakdown was broad and continues to accelerate.
• Grains: Mixed signals. Soybean Oil and Canola are trending higher and offered gains for long trades. But most other contracts—Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Oats—moved sideways or softened. Trend followers saw divergent outcomes depending on their exposure. The sector offered opportunity, but only in a few names.
• Equities: Still in drift mode. Most indexes are pausing near highs without follow-through. Trend signals remain weak and fragmented, with a few small short setups appearing in the Nasdaq and Nikkei. Overall, not hostile, but not helpful either.
• Volatility: The VIX bounced slightly, but not enough to generate signal. Short-vol setups lost their edge weeks ago, and this week offered little new. Trend followers are likely flat or holding minimal exposure.
• Bonds: Calm and modestly positive. The curve nudged higher, with all durations showing small gains. No breakouts occurred, but trend models with long exposure booked mild profit. Bonds acted as a stabilizer rather than a return engine.
• Currencies: Still lacking conviction. The US dollar fell again, but without coordinated strength across the majors. A few short setups against the dollar may have worked, but choppiness across AUD, NZD, and JPY made this space frustrating. Direction remains fragmented.
• Crypto: Bitcoin stayed elevated but rangebound. No clean breakout or reversal. Systems are likely flat or running with tight trailing stops. The signal remains muted.

Final Reflections – Trading the Space Between

Markets are not roaring, but they are not silent either. There is noise in some corners and structure in others. Systems that captured the energy surge or held onto metal exposure saw results. Others, particularly those in softs and FX, continued to struggle.

The SG Trend Index gave back part of its gains, showing how fragile this recovery remains. The TTU Trend Barometer held just under 50 percent, still within neutral but signaling that opportunity exists for those in the right places.

This is not a time for all-in conviction. It is a time for disciplined participation, focused on sectors showing real traction. Some trends are taking hold. Others are breaking down.

In these conditions, capital is not won through prediction. It is preserved through posture.

 

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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