Trend Following - Week in Review - June 6, 2025

“A Flicker, Not a Flame—But It's a Start”

This Week In Trend

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your lens into the evolving rhythms of global futures markets and the adaptive world of trend-following.

After weeks of trend breakdowns and systemic whiplash, the first full week of June delivered something different—not clarity, but possibility. A subtle shift is underway. Metals surged. Meats extended strength. Equities steadied. The storm hasn’t passed—but the skies are lighter.

Markets remain tentative. Systems remain cautious. But the tone has changed. Drawdowns are slowing. Signals are reforming. And some sectors are beginning to pulse with directional life again.

“A Flicker, Not a Flame…But It's a Start”

This week gave trend followers a hint of reprieve.

Metals lit up…platinum, palladium, and silver all staged double-digit rallies. Meats and grains offered supportive traction. Equities edged higher with greater balance. Even volatility stepped back again, reinforcing a calmer surface.

It’s not a full reversal. But systems leaning long in these sectors began to see traction. The question now: can this momentum build, or will it fade like so many recent sparks?

SG Trend Index Performance

MTD (as of June 5): +0.63%
YTD: -10.77%
(Last week MTD: -2.06% | YTD: -11.19%)

A flicker of green. The SG Trend Index finally posted a positive MTD return, breaking the string of drawdown weeks. It's only a mild recovery, but for trend followers still reeling from May’s reversals, it’s a welcome shift. Year-to-date losses remain heavy, but the bleeding has slowed.

TTU Trend Barometer: 36% – Moderately Weak

Last week: 43%
10-day rate-of-change: Rising Weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer slipped slightly from last week’s 43% to 36%, just below the neutral zone. But the 10-day rate-of-change continues to rise weakly, suggesting a bottoming process may be underway. We’re not out of the cold yet, but systems are no longer fully frozen.

“Below 40% is cold. At 36%, we’re still there… but warming from underneath.”

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

This week brought warmth back into the trend landscape. Metals surged on strong bullish momentum, with energy following close behind. Meats extended their quiet rise, and equities posted another modest gain. Volatility continued its collapse, dropping nearly 7%, and even grains and currencies turned slightly supportive.

The trend environment isn’t on fire… but it’s no longer frozen.

Asset Class Breakdown –From Flat to Flickering

• Metals: +6.92% (Last week: -2.62%)
  A full reversal and then some. Platinum, palladium, and silver led the charge, delivering standout gains across the board. From sharp correction to clear breakout in just one week.
• Energy: +4.64% (Last week: -2.98%)
  Back from the brink. WTI, Brent, and heating oil posted strong directional moves, reversing last week’s losses and signalling renewed trend potential.
• Meats: +3.47% (Last week: +0.72%)
  This quiet sector keeps climbing. Cattle and hogs continued their consistent drift upward, now gaining momentum week-on-week.
• Equities: +1.59% (Last week: +1.56%)
  Stable and steady. Tech and broad indices built on last week’s bounce. Not explosive, but systems tracking long are finally seeing follow-through.
• Grains: +1.07% (Last week: -0.51%)
  Wheat and oats led a subtle recovery, helping grains return to positive ground. Still mixed, but trend clarity is building.
• Currencies: +0.17% (Last week: -0.42%)
  A marginal gain after recent drift. FX remains muted, but this week's shift back into green territory is a small relief.
• Soft Commodities: -0.20% (Last week: -0.74%)
  Still under pressure. Coffee recovered, but sugar and cocoa dragged the complex lower. No trend resurgence here… yet.
• Bonds: -0.57% (Last week: +0.64%)
  Another turn. After last week’s bounce, bonds slid again as yields firmed. The chop continues in fixed income.
• Crypto: -0.07% (New this week)
  Minimal movement. Digital assets contributed little to trend environments, remaining subdued.
• Volatility Index (VIX): -6.85% (Last week: -8.81%)
  Volatility continues its retreat. The sharpest move of the week, but as the VIX sinks, so too does trend system opportunity in volatility-based models.

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

This week brought real leadership back to the board. The metals complex lit up, while grains and energy joined the charge. On the downside, sugar and cocoa extended their slide, and bonds fell back into chop. It’s still early—but the return of strong directional movers is a promising signal for trend systems.

Top Market Movers

Biggest Gainers

• Palladium: +13.96% – Exploded higher. A classic trend breakout after months of drift.
• Silver: +8.59% / Platinum: +7.63% – The metals rally was broad and powerful.
• Oats: +6.85% / Wheat: +5.96% – Surprise strength in grains, reversing last week’s drift.
• Heating Oil / Brent Crude / WTI: +4–5% – Energy snapped back hard after recent weakness.
• Lean Hogs: +3.33% – Quietly consistent. Momentum building.

Biggest Losers

• Sugar: -5.42% / Cocoa: -3.98% – Softs continue their correction phase. No stability yet.
• Bonds (e.g. 30Y, TLT): ~-0.5% to -1.0% – A soft fade, unwinding last week’s gains.
• Cotton: -1.91% – Another soft commodity under pressure.
• Volatility (VIX): -6.85% – Not a directional trade for most, but a signal of suppressed edge in short-term breakout systems.

Portfolio View - What the Moves Meant for Systems

• Metals & Energy: Clear directional moves benefited trend systems on both sides, long metals, short energy last week, then long energy this week. These sectors offered tradable structure at last.
• Meats: Persistent trends remain. Systems positioned either way have had clean entries, with upside momentum dominating this week.
• Equities: Trending higher again. Long equity systems remain engaged, with continued support across U.S. and global indices.
• Grains: A diverse landscape. Oats, wheat, and canola showed some upside potential, while corn and soybeans are stabilizing within broader ranges. Trend systems may be split between breakout and reversion signals across these instruments.
• Softs: More complex. Sugar, cotton, and coffee remain under pressure, favouring short trend signals. Orange juice shows early signs of long reversal, while cocoa and lumber are consolidating in no-man’s land.
• Bonds: Another whipsaw week. Directional conviction remains elusive… positions both long and short have struggled to hold gains.
• Currencies & Crypto: Directionless drift. Signals lacked follow-through, with most systems sitting neutral or taking minor noise-based trades.
• Volatility: Compressed again. Falling VIX continues to reduce breakout opportunities and limits the effectiveness of volatility-sensitive systems.

Final Reflections – Still Cold, But Cracking

This week didn’t break the drawdown—but it bent it.

After months of systemic stress and grinding reversals, something shifted. Trend followers aren’t out of the woods, but they’re no longer walking in circles. Key sectors like metals, energy, and meats finally gave directional signals with follow-through. Grains and equities joined in… tentatively, but with intent. Even the SG Trend Index found footing.

Yet the terrain remains uneven. Softs are fragmented. Bonds can’t decide. And the TTU Trend Barometer, while rising weakly, still hovers just below neutral. The edge is fragile. The signal-to-noise ratio is improving… but barely.

So what’s the message?

Patience is working. Structure is emerging. We’re not seeing fireworks, but we are seeing embers. And in trend following, that’s where fire begins.

 

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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