Trend Following - Week in Review— March 20, 2026

"Energy Surges as Metals Collapse and Equities Slide Further"

This Week in Trend – 20 March 2026

Welcome to This Week in Trend, your weekly view into the evolving structure of global futures markets and the behaviour of systematic trend following. This edition covers conditions through the close of US markets on Friday, 20 March 2026.

Energy surged to its third consecutive week of strong gains, once again the dominant sector across all 49 assets. Heating oil led with a gain of 14.79%, the single best performer of the week. Sugar added 9.26%, coffee jumped 8.63%, and crude oil Brent gained 8.77%. Gasoline RBOB advanced 8.05%. The energy sector averaged +5.60%, extending its run as the primary positive contributor. Feeder cattle gained 2.20% and live cattle added 1.77%. Cotton rose 2.22% and soybean meal gained 1.64%. Currencies were mixed but broadly positive, with the euro up 0.96% and sterling up 0.62%.

Metals suffered a historic collapse this week. Silver crashed 14.36%, the worst performer across all 49 assets. Gold fell 9.62% and copper lost 6.64%. Palladium declined 8.51% and platinum dropped 3.51%. Every metal finished sharply lower, producing a sector average of -8.53%, the worst sector of the week by a wide margin. Orange juice plunged 18.97%, the single worst performer across all 49 assets. Equity indices extended their decline: the DAX fell 4.47%, Nikkei 225 dropped 3.82%, and Euro Stoxx 50 lost 3.70%. The S&P 500 declined 1.90%, Nasdaq 100 fell 2.05%, and the DJIA dropped 2.33%. Grains were broadly negative, with soybeans falling 5.22% and oats losing 4.85%. Bitcoin declined 1.55%.

The trend environment remained constructive despite a turbulent week. The TTU Barometer remained at 57%, maintaining its position in "Strong" territory and registering a 10-day rate of change of "Rising Weakly." This is a meaningful improvement, reflecting the broadening of energy trends and the contribution of currency and soft commodity gains. The SG Trend Index stands at -1.83% month-to-date and +6.81% year-to-date, reflecting the continued drag from metals and equities in systematic portfolios. Energy's three-week run continues to be the primary positive driver, but the barometer's 57% reading, supported by a rising rate of change, signals that the trend environment is improving more broadly.

Energy surged for a third straight week. Metals collapsed. Equities fell further. Orange juice imploded. But the barometer held at 57%, remaining in "Strong" territory with a rising rate of change. The energy complex is generating powerful multi-week trend signals, metals are establishing a clear downtrend, and the barometer's resilience at 57% with a rising rate of change is the most important signal for systematic managers this week.

---

SG Trend Index Performance

Month to date: -1.83 percent

Year to date: +6.81 percent

Last week:

Month to date: -1.53 percent

Year to date: +7.13 percent

The SG Trend Index moved from -1.53% to -1.83% month-to-date, a further decline of 0.30 percentage points as metals' historic collapse and continued equity weakness overwhelmed the positive contribution from energy. The year-to-date reading of +6.81% represents a modest pullback from last week’s +7.13%, confirming that the violent metals reversal is creating meaningful headwinds for systematic portfolios even as energy continues to deliver. March remains negative month-to-date, with the trajectory showing incremental deterioration rather than the stabilisation seen last week.

This week’s dynamic is dominated by two opposing forces of extraordinary magnitude. Energy delivered a third consecutive week of powerful gains, with heating oil surging 14.79% and the sector averaging +5.60%, generating strong trend signals across the petroleum complex. Against this, metals suffered a collapse of historic proportions: silver down 14.36%, gold down 9.62%, copper down 6.64%, palladium down 8.51%. The sector average of -8.53% represents a violent unwinding that is creating severe drawdown in long metals positions built over prior months. Systematic portfolios with established long energy and long metals exposure are experiencing a dramatic internal divergence: energy gains providing meaningful positive contribution while metals losses compress or eliminate recent profits in that complex.

The year-to-date reading of +6.81% remains a strong foundation built during January and February. The March month-to-date figure of -1.83% confirms the corrective character of the month so far, with metals' collapse this week accelerating the deterioration from last week’s -1.53%. The barometer’s revised reading of 57% is the most constructive signal in the report: energy trends are generating genuine breadth and the rate of change is rising weakly, suggesting the trend environment is improving even as the metals reversal creates short-term portfolio pain. The year-to-date cushion remains substantial, and the strong environment supports continued systematic positioning with disciplined risk management.

---

TTU Trend Barometer

Current reading: 57 percent

Previous reading: 57 percent

10-day rate of change: Rising Weakly

The TTU Trend Barometer held at 57%, maintaining its position in "Strong" territory and registering a 10-day rate of change of "Rising Weakly." The rate of change improvement from last week’s "Falling Weakly" to "Rising Weakly" confirms that trend breadth is actively expanding even as the headline reading holds steady. The barometer has now recovered from its February low of 43%, risen to 61%, pulled back to 55%, then 57%, and now stabilised at 57% with rising momentum, a pattern that reflects genuine trend participation building across a growing number of markets.

The barometer’s reading of 57% reflects the combination of three consecutive weeks of strong energy trends and the broadening contribution of currency and soft commodity signals. Energy is the dominant driver: heating oil at +14.79%, crude oil Brent at +8.77%, gasoline RBOB at +8.05%, and the sector averaging +5.60% for the third consecutive positive week, the petroleum complex is generating trend signals across multiple timeframes that are providing strong breadth. Currencies added a positive contribution this week, with the euro, sterling, and NZD all advancing modestly. Meats were marginally positive. The metals collapse at -8.53% and the equity decline at -2.85% are eroding signals, but energy’s sustained strength and the contribution from other sectors are providing more than sufficient breadth to hold the barometer at 57% with a rising rate of change.

At 57% with a rising rate of change, the barometer sits above the 55% threshold in "Strong" territory and is moving in the right direction. The "Rising Weakly" rate of change is a meaningful positive shift from last week’s "Falling Weakly" reading and signals that trend breadth is actively improving. The critical question is whether energy’s dominance can sustain the barometer if metals weakness broadens or deepens. This week’s evidence suggests the answer is yes: even with metals averaging -8.53% and equities declining across all major indices, the barometer held its ground. The environment is classified as strong, and at 57% the classification sits just above the 55% threshold, with rising momentum as the key supporting signal.

The barometer’s trajectory over recent weeks tells a story of recovery and resilience: from 68% in late January, declining to 43%, recovering to 61%, then oscillating between 55% and 57%, and now holding at 57% with a rising rate of change. The pattern shows a trend environment that absorbed violent sector rotation without breaking below the 55% threshold and is now reasserting itself on the upside. If energy continues to strengthen, currencies build on this week’s positive contribution, and grains stabilise, the path toward 65% and beyond is open. The "Rising Weakly" momentum at 57% is a more important signal than the headline number alone: the barometer is moving in the right direction even if it has not yet extended to new recovery highs. Systematic positioning remains fully warranted.

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favorable trend environment.

---

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finviz.com

Energy (+5.60 percent | prev +8.21 percent)

Energy extended its extraordinary run to a third consecutive week of powerful gains, with the sector averaging +5.60% and once again leading all sectors. Heating oil surged 14.79% to 4.6715 on the weekly chart, the best performer across all 49 assets and its third consecutive week among the top movers. Crude oil Brent gained 8.77% to 109.55, building on the prior two weeks of strong advances. Gasoline RBOB rose 8.05% to 3.3092 and crude oil WTI added a modest 0.20% to 98.09. Ethanol gained 2.93% to 1.9300. Natural gas declined 1.15% to 3.0960, the only energy contract in the red and the continued outlier in an otherwise uniformly bullish petroleum complex.

The weekly charts across the energy complex paint a picture of sustained multi-week trending. Heating oil at 4.6715 is extending a powerful breakout candle above recent highs with strong volume confirmation, pushing to levels not seen in over a year. Crude oil Brent at 109.55 has cleared 100 and is building on that breakout with a third consecutive green weekly candle. Gasoline RBOB at 3.3092 is in confirmed uptrend territory on the weekly chart. WTI at 98.09 is consolidating near the 100 level after its prior advance, the weekly candle modest but constructive. Three consecutive weeks of broad petroleum gains are now generating strong multi-week trend signals across all timeframes that systematic strategies are designed to capture. Natural gas at 3.0960 remains the outlier, its chart showing a volatile structure that continues to frustrate clean trend signals.

Bonds (-0.73 percent | prev -1.01 percent)

Bonds were modestly negative for a third consecutive week, with losses more contained than in prior weeks. The 30-year bond fell 1.15% to 112.63 on the weekly chart. The 10-year note declined 0.62% to 110.53 and the 5-year note slipped 0.39% to 107.80. The 2-year note was the most resilient, falling just 0.17% to 103.51. The weekly charts show the bond complex continuing to drift lower against the backdrop of persistent energy-driven inflationary pressure, with Brent crude now above 109 reinforcing the narrative that rates face continued upward pressure.

For systematic trend-following systems, three consecutive weeks of bond declines are establishing a clear short-term downtrend across the yield curve. The 30-year bond at 112.63 is the weakest contract and the leading indicator of the complex’s directional bias. The 2-year note’s relative resilience at 103.51 reflects the market’s assessment that near-term rate expectations are better anchored than the long end. Whether the energy complex’s sustained strength translates into a more durable inflationary narrative that keeps long-duration bonds under sustained pressure will be a defining question for fixed income positioning in the weeks ahead. The current chart structure supports short or flat bond exposure rather than long.

Soft Commodity (+0.23 percent | prev +1.61 percent)

Soft commodities produced a sharply bifurcated week, with the sector average of +0.23% masking extraordinary divergence between the strongest and weakest contracts. Sugar gained 9.26% to 15.63, the second-best performer across all 49 assets, extending its recovery from multi-year lows. Coffee surged 8.63% to 311.15, the third-best performer of the week and a dramatic reversal after weeks of sustained decline. Cotton rose 2.22% to 67.34 and lumber added 1.50% to 609.50. Cocoa fell 1.27% to 3245.0, continuing its corrective drift. Orange juice collapsed 18.97% to 160.70, the worst performer across all 49 assets by a wide margin, erasing multiple weeks of prior gains in a single session.

Orange juice’s 18.97% collapse is the dominant story in soft commodities this week and one of the most extreme single-week moves across all 49 assets. The weekly chart at 160.70 shows a violent reversal candle wiping out the prior week’s advance and then some, returning to levels that precede the recent recovery attempt. For systematic strategies that established long positions on the prior week’s breakout, this represents a painful stop-out. Coffee’s 8.63% surge to 311.15 is the sector’s most constructive development: the weekly chart shows a powerful reversal candle emerging from deeply oversold territory, potentially signalling the end of the multi-month downtrend that has been a persistent source of counter-trend pressure. Whether this is genuine reversal or a relief bounce will be confirmed in coming weeks. Sugar’s 9.26% gain to 15.63 adds to the soft commodity’s positive signals. For systematic strategies, coffee and sugar are generating nascent long signals while orange juice’s crash creates a confused picture for that market.

Metal (-8.53 percent | prev -3.18 percent)

Metals suffered a historic collapse this week, with every contract declining sharply and the sector producing an average of -8.53%, the worst sector performance of the week by a wide margin. Silver crashed 14.36% to 67.81, the worst performer across all 49 assets after orange juice. Gold fell 9.62% to 4492.0 on the weekly chart, a violent reversal from the record highs reached in recent weeks. Copper lost 6.64% to 5.3020. Palladium declined 8.51% to 1414.50 and platinum dropped 3.51% to 1920.10. Every metal finished sharply lower, with no resilience anywhere in the complex.

Three consecutive weeks of metals declines, culminating in this week’s historic collapse, have created a clearly established short-term downtrend across the entire precious metals complex. Silver at 67.81 has given back an extraordinary portion of its prior advance in just three weeks, the weekly chart showing a pattern of accelerating losses. Gold at 4492.0, while still above its longer-term moving averages, has now fallen sharply from the highs and the weekly chart structure is showing meaningful deterioration. The 9.62% decline is Gold’s largest single-week loss in the current data set and a significant technical event. Copper at 5.3020 and palladium at 1414.50 are both in confirmed short-term downtrends. For systematic trend-following systems, the sustained metals weakness is compressing, and in many cases reversing, the profitable long positions built during earlier months. The scale of this week’s losses means some systems will be generating short signals in metals, particularly silver and palladium, where the downtrend is most clearly established.

Meats (+0.51 percent | prev -2.09 percent)

Meats recovered to a marginally positive week, with the sector averaging +0.51% and reversing last week’s broad decline. Feeder cattle led with a gain of 2.20% to 346.68 on the weekly chart, the stronger performer of the cattle pair. Live cattle added 1.77% to 233.30, extending its recovery from the corrective lows. Lean hogs declined 2.46% to 91.35, the only detractor in the complex and continuing its established downtrend. The weekly charts for both cattle contracts show tentative recovery candles building after last week’s weakness. Feeder cattle at 346.68 is showing a more constructive structure, while live cattle at 233.30 is stabilising near recent lows. Lean hogs at 91.35 continues to make lower lows on the weekly chart, with no sign of reversal emerging. For systematic strategies, cattle is beginning to generate tentative positive signals while lean hogs remains a source of negative pressure.

Grains (-2.24 percent | prev +1.25 percent)

Grains reversed their six-week positive streak with a broadly negative week, the sector averaging -2.24% as selling pressure spread across most contracts. Soybeans led the decline at -5.22% to 1160.50 on the weekly chart, the worst performer in the complex. Oats fell 4.85% to 356.00, a sharp reversal after last week’s 10.34% surge. Soybean oil declined 2.86% to 65.63 and wheat dropped 3.01% to 595.75. Canola fell 1.81% to 726.10 and rough rice declined 2.46% to 11.13. Corn slipped 0.37% to 466.25. Soybean meal was the sole positive performer, gaining 1.64% to 328.00, the only bright spot in an otherwise uniformly negative week for the complex.

The end of the six-week positive streak in grains is a significant development for systematic trend-following systems that had been building on the sector’s consistent positive contributions. Soybeans at 1160.50 produced a meaningful reversal candle on the weekly chart, erasing the prior week’s gains and raising questions about the durability of the recovery structure. Oats at 356.00 has given back a large portion of last week’s 10.34% surge, the weekly chart showing a volatile spike-and-reversal pattern that is less constructive than the prior steady advance. Wheat at 595.75 has now declined for two consecutive weeks. Soybean meal’s +1.64% to 328.00 remains the most constructive chart in the complex, with the weekly structure still showing a reasonable uptrend. For systematic strategies, one negative week does not break a trend, but the breadth of this week’s declines across seven of eight contracts warrants close monitoring in the week ahead.

Equity Index (-2.85 percent | prev -1.19 percent)

Equity indices extended their decline for a third consecutive week, with losses broadening and accelerating in several markets. The sector averaged -2.85%, the second weakest sector of the week behind metals. The DAX fell 4.47% to 22420.0 on the weekly chart, the worst equity performer of the week. Nikkei 225 dropped 3.82% to 51075.0 and Euro Stoxx 50 lost 3.70% to 5403.0. The Nasdaq 100 declined 2.05% to 24217.0 and the DJIA fell 2.33% to 46110.0. The S&P 500 declined 1.90% to 5988.50 and the Russell 2000 lost 1.67% to 2467.20. The VIX fell 3.84% to 25.20, a modest easing of volatility that provides some limited relief even as the underlying equity markets continue to deteriorate.

The weekly charts across equity indices show three consecutive weeks of corrective candles establishing a clear and deepening short-term downtrend in all major markets. The DAX at 22420.0, Nikkei at 51075.0, and Euro Stoxx 50 at 5403.0 are all showing accelerating weakness this week, with European and Asian markets leading the decline. The S&P 500 at 5988.50 has now broken below the 6000 level that had provided support, a potentially significant technical development on the weekly chart. The Russell 2000 at 2467.20 continues its pattern of weakness, with small-cap indices confirming the broader market’s directional trend. The VIX at 25.20 remains elevated despite this week’s marginal decline, confirming that market anxiety persists. For systematic trend-following systems, three consecutive weeks of declines across all major equity indices are generating increasingly strong negative signals, and the breadth of this week’s sell-off adds conviction to those signals.

Currency (+0.27 percent | prev -0.78 percent)

Currencies were broadly positive this week, the sector reversing the prior two weeks of weakness and averaging +0.27%. The euro led with a gain of 0.96% to 1.1620 on the weekly chart, the strongest major currency of the week. Sterling added 0.62% to 1.3338 and NZD gained 0.49% to 0.5850. CHF rose 0.14% to 1.2808 and JPY advanced 0.13% to 0.6327. AUD gained 0.08% to 0.7015. CAD was the lone decliner, falling 0.07% to 0.7315, a marginal move in the context of the week. The USD gave back some of last week’s recovery, declining modestly as the broad dollar strength of the prior two weeks partially unwound.

The weekly charts across currency pairs show a constructive reversal from the prior two weeks of USD strength. The euro at 1.1620, sterling at 1.3338, and NZD at 0.5850 are all showing positive weekly candles that partially reverse the recent downtrend. For systematic managers who built long non-dollar positions during the USD’s extended prior downtrend, this week’s recovery is welcome relief after two weeks of losses. Whether this represents a genuine resumption of the dollar downtrend or merely a consolidation pause within the USD’s broader recovery will become clearer in coming weeks. The currency sector’s positive contribution this week is a meaningful diversifier against the week’s losses in metals, equities, and grains.

Bitcoin declined 1.55% to 70155.0 on the weekly chart, a modest continuation of the established downtrend. The weekly chart at 70155.0 shows the price consolidating near the lower end of its recent range, with the broader structure of lower highs and lower lows remaining intact from the highs of earlier in the year. For trend-following systems, the weekly chart structure continues to lean negative after multiple months of declining prices, and a single modest decline confirms rather than disrupts that picture. No reversal signal is apparent at current levels.

Volatility Index (-3.84 percent | prev -2.21 percent)

The VIX fell 3.84% to 25.20 this week, a modest easing from last week’s elevated reading. At 25.20, implied volatility remains elevated by historical standards, and the weekly chart shows the VIX consolidating in the mid-20s range rather than returning to the low-volatility regime that prevailed through much of 2025. The decline in the VIX coincided with continued equity market weakness, which is atypical: falling equity prices usually push the VIX higher. This divergence may reflect declining hedging demand or position unwinding rather than genuine market calm. For systematic strategies, a VIX above 25 continues to signal an elevated-volatility environment where position sizing discipline and risk management remain priorities.

---

Performance Highlights – This Week’s Market Leaders & Laggards

Source: Finviz.com

Top Market Movers

Top Gainers

1. Heating Oil +14.79 percent

Heating oil surged 14.79% to 4.6715 on the weekly chart, the best performer across all 49 assets for the week. This is the third consecutive week that heating oil has ranked among the top performers, cementing its role as a primary trend-following signal within the energy complex. The weekly chart at 4.6715 shows a powerful continuation candle extending the prior two weeks of extraordinary gains, with price now at levels well above all relevant moving averages. Three consecutive weeks of heating oil gains confirm genuine multi-week trend momentum rather than a volatility event. For systematic strategies, the contract is generating strong signals across all standard trend timeframes.

2. Sugar +9.26 percent

Sugar gained 9.26% to 15.63 on the weekly chart, the second-best performer across all 49 assets and the standout mover among soft commodities this week. The chart at 15.63 shows a powerful reversal candle building from deeply depressed levels, with the recovery from multi-year lows gaining momentum. Sugar’s 9.26% gain follows recent weakness and represents a potential change of character for a market that has been in a sustained downtrend. For systematic strategies, the weekly chart structure is becoming more constructive, and the magnitude of this week’s move may be generating early positive trend signals on shorter timeframes.

3. Coffee +8.63 percent

Coffee surged 8.63% to 311.15, the third-best performer across all 49 assets and a dramatic reversal after months of sustained decline. The weekly chart at 311.15 shows a powerful bullish candle emerging from oversold territory, potentially signalling the end of the prolonged downtrend that had made coffee a persistent counter-trend drag in systematic portfolios. The magnitude of the move, 8.63% in a single week, is significant and consistent with trend reversal rather than a routine bounce. For systematic managers, this is a market to monitor closely: if the weekly chart follows through positively in coming weeks, coffee could transition from a source of short signals to a genuine long opportunity.

4. Crude Oil Brent +8.77 percent

Crude oil Brent gained 8.77% to 109.55 on the weekly chart, the fourth-best performer across all 49 assets and its third consecutive week of strong gains. Brent at 109.55 has now built a sustained three-week uptrend that is one of the most clearly defined trend structures across all 49 markets. The weekly chart shows three consecutive green candles of meaningful size, with each week reinforcing the prior week’s directional signal. For systematic trend-following strategies, three consecutive weeks of gains in a liquid global benchmark like Brent crude represents exactly the kind of sustained directional movement that generates high-conviction long signals. The energy trend is real, broad, and continuing.

Top Losers

1. Orange Juice -18.97 percent

Orange juice collapsed 18.97% to 160.70 on the weekly chart, the worst performer across all 49 assets and one of the most extreme single-week moves in the current data set. The weekly chart at 160.70 shows a devastating reversal candle that wipes out multiple weeks of prior gains in a single session. This is a market that has now experienced a violent spike followed by an equally violent reversal, a pattern that is highly destructive for systematic trend-following systems that entered long positions on the breakout. For systematic managers, the weekly chart structure is now confused and the appropriate response is caution. The magnitude of the reversal, nearly 19% in a single week, generates a stop-out signal on all standard trend timeframes.

2. Silver -14.36 percent

Silver crashed 14.36% to 67.81 on the weekly chart, the second-worst performer across all 49 assets and by far the most significant mover among the metals complex. The weekly chart at 67.81 shows an extraordinary bearish candle that accelerates the established three-week downtrend in the precious metals complex. Silver at 67.81 has now given back a substantial portion of its prior multi-month advance, and the rate of decline is accelerating. For systematic strategies, three consecutive weeks of silver declines culminating in this week’s 14.36% crash are generating strong short signals, and the weekly chart structure provides technical justification for those signals. The scale of the reversal from recent highs is now significant enough to challenge the longer-term uptrend structure.

3. Gold -9.62 percent

Gold fell 9.62% to 4492.0, the third-worst performer across all 49 assets and the largest single-week decline for the metal in recent history. The weekly chart at 4492.0 shows a powerful bearish candle that is the most significant technical deterioration gold has experienced after its extended multi-month advance. Despite the severity of this week’s decline, gold at 4492.0 remains above its longer-term moving averages, and the broader uptrend established through 2025 and early 2026 is not yet definitively broken on the weekly chart. However, three consecutive down weeks and a 9.62% decline in a single session represent a meaningful shift in market character. For systematic strategies, the weekly structure is deteriorating rapidly and long positions face increasing drawdown pressure.

4. Palladium -8.51 percent

Palladium declined 8.51% to 1414.50 on the weekly chart, the fourth-worst performer across all 49 assets and its third consecutive week of meaningful losses. The palladium weekly chart at 1414.50 shows an accelerating downtrend, with each of the past three weeks printing lower and the rate of decline increasing. From recent highs, palladium has given back a substantial portion of its prior advance. The weekly chart structure of lower highs and lower closes over three weeks is generating strong short signals for systematic strategies. For managers who maintained long palladium exposure through the three-week correction, the cumulative drawdown is now significant. The chart provides no clear support levels at current prices, and the downtrend remains intact.

---

Portfolio View - Positioning and Impact

Energy positioning was the primary positive contributor for a third consecutive week. Long heating oil exposure gained 14.79%, long crude oil Brent added 8.77%, and long gasoline RBOB contributed 8.05%. Long ethanol added 2.93%. Natural gas was the only detractor within energy at -1.15%. The energy sector average of +5.60% confirms that petroleum long positions remain the most reliable positive contributor in systematic portfolios across the past three weeks. Three consecutive weeks of energy gains are now generating strong multi-timeframe trend signals, and the quality of those signals is improving with each additional week of confirmation.

Metals positioning was the week’s primary detractor by an extraordinary margin. Long silver exposure lost 14.36%, the largest single-contract loss across all 49 assets. Long gold gave back 9.62%, long palladium declined 8.51%, long copper lost 6.64%, and long platinum fell 3.51%. The sector average of -8.53% means the metals complex inflicted severe losses on systematic portfolios with established long exposure. Three consecutive weeks of metals weakness, culminating in this week’s historic collapse, represent a defining challenge for trend-following managers. Managers who had already reduced metals exposure in response to prior weeks’ signals limited their losses; those maintaining full long exposure faced exceptional drawdown this week.

Equity positioning was negative across all major regions for a third consecutive week, with losses deepening. Short or flat equity exposure provided relief this week, while long positions continued to generate drawdown. The DAX fell 4.47%, Euro Stoxx 50 lost 3.70%, and Nikkei 225 dropped 3.82%, making European and Asian long exposure particularly costly. The S&P 500 declined 1.90% and the DJIA fell 2.33%. The Russell 2000 lost 1.67%. Three consecutive weeks of equity declines across all major indices are generating increasingly strong negative signals, and systematic strategies that have reduced or reversed equity exposure are being rewarded. The VIX’s modest decline of 3.84% to 25.20 provided a small positive for any volatility-related short positions.

Bonds positioning was a modest negative contributor for a third consecutive week, though the losses remained contained compared to energy and metals. Long 30-year bond exposure lost 1.15%, the 10-year note declined 0.62%, and the 5-year note fell 0.39%. The 2-year note was nearly flat at -0.17%. The sustained but moderate bond weakness reflects the inflationary backdrop created by energy’s continued strength. Three consecutive down weeks in bonds are establishing clear trend signals, though the magnitude of losses remains manageable compared to the violent moves in metals and equities.

Grains positioning was a negative contributor this week, ending the six-week run of positive contributions. Long soybeans lost 5.22%, long oats fell 4.85%, long soybean oil declined 2.86%, and long wheat dropped 3.01%. Long canola fell 1.81% and long rough rice declined 2.46%. The only positive contribution came from soybean meal at +1.64%. Systematic managers who maintained full long exposure to the grains complex after six positive weeks faced their first meaningful reversal. One negative week does not break a trend, but the breadth of losses across seven of eight contracts warrants monitoring.

Currency positioning was a positive contributor this week, reversing two weeks of losses. Long euro exposure gained 0.96%, long sterling added 0.62%, long NZD contributed 0.49%, and long JPY added 0.13%. Long AUD gained 0.08%. CAD was the only detractor at -0.07%. The currency sector’s +0.27% average provided welcome diversification against the week’s losses in metals, equities, and grains. Bitcoin’s -1.55% decline was a minor detractor for any long crypto exposure. Soft commodity exposure produced a sharply bifurcated result: sugar +9.26% and coffee +8.63% were major positive contributors, while orange juice’s -18.97% collapse created severe drawdown for any long exposure established on last week’s breakout.

---

Final Reflections: Energy Surges as Metals Collapse and Equities Slide Further

The third week of March delivered the most dramatic sector divergence of the year so far. Energy extended its extraordinary run for a third consecutive week, with heating oil surging 14.79% and the sector averaging +5.60%. Metals suffered a historic collapse, with silver crashing 14.36%, gold falling 9.62%, and the sector averaging -8.53%. Equities declined across all major markets for a third straight week. And through it all, the TTU Barometer held at 57%, maintaining its position in "Strong" territory while the 10-day rate of change shifted from "Falling Weakly" to "Rising Weakly." The divergence between the violence of individual sector moves and the barometer's quiet resilience is the week's defining tension.

Three observations define the week:

1. Energy's three-week run is now generating the strongest and most sustained trend signals in the portfolio.

Heating oil at +14.79%, Brent crude at +8.77%, and gasoline RBOB at +8.05% confirm that the petroleum complex's strength is deepening rather than fading. Three consecutive weeks of broad-based energy gains, with Brent now above 109 and heating oil at 4.6715, represent exactly the kind of sustained directional movement that trend-following strategies are built to capture. The signals being generated across the energy complex this week are among the highest-conviction in the portfolio. For managers with established long energy exposure, three weeks of meaningful gains are compounding into substantial cumulative returns. The natural gas exception at -1.15% is the only blemish in an otherwise exceptional sector performance.

2. The metals collapse is historic in magnitude, and three weeks of losses are creating a new and significant trend in the opposite direction.

Silver's 14.36% crash, gold's 9.62% decline, palladium's 8.51% fall, and copper's 6.64% loss represent a reversal of historic proportions. Three consecutive weeks of metals losses, culminating in this week's extraordinary selloff, have created a clearly established short-term downtrend across the entire complex. For systematic managers, this raises a fundamental positioning question: the same trend-following systems that generated long signals during the prior advance are now generating short signals in metals after three weeks of consistent decline. Whether those short signals are acted upon depends on individual system parameters, but the directional bias of the weekly charts is now clearly negative in precious metals. The cumulative drawdown from peak long positions is significant and growing.

3. The barometer at 57% with a rising rate of change is a constructive reading, and it matters that momentum is rising despite the carnage in metals.

The TTU Barometer held at 57% despite silver crashing 14.36%, gold falling 9.62%, equities declining across all major indices, and grains breaking a six-week positive streak. That the barometer held its ground in the face of such broad sector weakness tells you everything about the power of energy's trend contribution. The rate of change shift from "Falling Weakly" to "Rising Weakly" is an additional positive signal, confirming that trend breadth is actively expanding rather than simply holding. The SG Trend Index at -1.83% month-to-date and +6.81% year-to-date reflects the real portfolio impact of the metals collapse, but the barometer's 57% reading confirms that energy trends, combined with constructive contributions from currencies and meats, are providing sufficient breadth to hold and improve the overall trend environment. The strong environment supports continued systematic positioning, and the rising rate of change suggests conditions may improve further if energy continues to build.

Energy builds for a third week. Metals collapse. Equities slide further. Grains break their streak. But the barometer holds at 57% with rising momentum. The trend environment is stronger than the week's headlines suggest.

---

 

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

Important Disclaimers

This document is directly solely to Accredited Investors, Qualified Eligible Participants, Qualified Clients and Qualified Purchasers. No investment decision should be made until prospective investors have read the detailed information in the fund offering documents of any manager mentioned in this document. This document is furnished on a confidential basis only for the use of the recipient and only for discussion purposes and is subject to amendment This document is neither advice nor a recommendation to enter into any transaction. This document is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any security or other financial instrument. This presentation is based on information obtained from sources that TopTradersUnplugged (“TTU”) (“considers to be reliable however, TTU makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information. TTU has not independently verified third party manager or benchmark information, does not represent it as accurate, true or complete, makes no warranty, express or implied regarding it and shall not be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses relating to its adequacy, accuracy, truth, completeness or use.

All projections, valuations, and statistical analyses are provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein. Such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may use one among many alternative methodologies that produce different results accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses should not be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate prediction of future events. There is no guarantee that any targeted performance will be achieved Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone

TTU is not and does not purport to be an advisor as to legal, taxation, accounting, financial or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. The recipient should independently evaluate and judge the matters referred to herein. TTU does not provide advice or recommendations regarding an investor’s decision to allocate to funds or accounts managed by any manager (“or to maintain or sell investments in funds or accounts managed by any manager, and no fiduciary relationship under ERISA is created by the investor investing in funds or accounts managed by any manager, or through any communication between TTU and the investor

In reviewing this document, it should be understood that the past performance results of any asset class, or any investment or trading program set forth herein, are not necessarily indicative of any future results that may be achieved in connection with any transaction. Any persons subscribing for an investment must be able to bear the risks involved and must meet the suitability requirements relating to such investment. Some or all alternative investment programs discussed herein may not be suitable for certain investors This document is directed only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such investment professionals. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely upon this document.

This document and its contents are proprietary information of TTU and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without TTU’s prior written consent.

This document contains simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations AND SHOULD BE VIEWED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT ACCOUNT.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM OR OTHER ASSET.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those being shown.