Trend Following - Week in Review - March 28, 2025

Welcome to "This Week in Trend", where each week, we cover key movements and trends in the futures markets, offering insights on commodities and indices shaping the economy. From price surges to notable declines, we provide an overview of the factors driving these changes. Stay informed about the latest developments and navigate the market with confidence. Join us weekly to explore the dynamic world of futures trading and the trends that matter most.

"Volatility Roars Back, Trend Signals Stumble Further"

Trend-following conditions weakened again this week, with the TTU Trend Barometer falling to 30%, down slightly from last week’s 32%. While not a dramatic shift, the drop reinforces the message that trend conditions remain soft and uncertain. For trend-followers, the environment continues to lack sustained momentum and breadth.

The SG Trend Index also moved lower, posting -1.20% MTD and -4.20% YTD, compared to -0.52% MTD and -3.55% YTD last week. The drawdown continues to deepen, suggesting recent market whipsaws have made life difficult for systematic traders.

The biggest shift this week was a dramatic reversal in volatility, with the VIX Futures jumping 9.44% after last week’s 6.57% decline. That snapback may reflect mounting unease in equity and commodity markets, both of which saw renewed weakness. Equities were down sharply at -2.21%, while soft commodities dropped -2.54%, led by an outsized plunge in orange juice. Meanwhile, metals continued their ascent, gaining 1.72%, offering trend-followers a brief glimmer of consistency.

TTU Trend Barometer: 30% (Last week: 32%)

• 10-day rate of change: Falling Slightly
• Trend conditions: Weakening Further

The TTU Trend Barometer’s decline reinforces the choppy, uneven nature of current market trends. The market remains in a low-conviction state, with fewer instruments generating reliable follow-through. Patience and risk control remain paramount.

The Top Traders Unplugged (TTU) Trend Barometer is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage of markets with medium to strong trends. Similar to a thermometer, where 0 degrees Celsius equates to freezing, a TTU Trend Barometer reading below 40% indicates a “cold” environment for trend-following, while readings above 55% signal a “hotter,” more favourable trend environment.

Weekly Asset Class Snapshot

Source: Finwiz.com

As March draws to a close, markets delivered a sharp reversal in tone, with volatility roaring back, equities tumbling, and soft commodities plunging. The trend-following environment deteriorated further, with the Trend Barometer slipping to 30%. Energy and metals continued to show some strength, while grains and meats moved sideways. This divergence highlights a market struggling to find consistent leadership, with macro crosscurrents adding pressure.

Equities: -2.21% (Previous week: +0.40%)
Equity markets were hit hard this week as concerns over stretched valuations, geopolitical tensions, and the resilience of interest rates weighed on sentiment. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 both posted sharp losses. Renewed uncertainty about future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, coupled with rising volatility and weak forward guidance from major firms, contributed to the risk-off tone. The retreat suggests that last week's modest bounce lacked conviction and follow-through.

Energy: +1.13% (Previous week: +1.47%)
The energy complex held firm, with oil markets supported by tighter inventory data and ongoing geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Brent crude continues to consolidate above key support levels, benefiting from OPEC+ signalling continued production discipline. While momentum has slowed slightly, trend-followers remain engaged in long-side positions, especially as the broader commodity complex falters.

Metals: +1.72% (Previous week: -0.37%)
Metals turned decisively higher, with silver rebounding sharply and gold hitting multi-week highs amid rising safe-haven demand. A softening U.S. dollar and elevated geopolitical risk helped reverse last week’s profit-taking. Industrial metals like copper and palladium also edged higher on renewed China stimulus hopes. The move likely re-engaged medium- and long-term trend-followers.

Grains: -0.15% (Previous week: +0.42%)
Grains softened slightly as planting season began in the Northern Hemisphere. Mild weather and stable global inventory forecasts capped any upside. Corn and soybean meal were among the weaker performers this week. Traders remain cautious as the market balances early season optimism with concerns over global trade and shifting demand patterns.

Meats: -0.25% (Previous week: +0.82%)
The meats sector took a breather after recent gains, with cattle prices dipping on easing export demand and rising feed costs. While not a dramatic move, the weakness reflects the choppy nature of the current trend environment. Traders are watching grain input prices closely, which may affect feedlot margins in coming weeks.

Soft Commodities: -2.54% (Previous week: +1.52%)
Softs reversed sharply, led by a -15% collapse in orange juice and continued pressure in sugar and coffee. The outsized move in orange juice followed a failed retracement attempt, with bearish technical momentum taking hold again. Coffee and sugar faded as supply fears eased. Cocoa remained the outlier with continued strength, but overall softness weighed on the group.

Currencies: -0.02% (Previous week: -0.21%)
Currency markets were largely flat, with the U.S. dollar stabilizing as expectations for a June Fed rate cut were dialed back. Yen and euro volatility picked up slightly, but FX remained rangebound overall. From a trend-following perspective, most major FX pairs continue to lack directional follow-through.

Volatility Index (VIX Futures): +9.44% (Previous week: -6.57%)
Volatility made a dramatic return after last week’s plunge, with the VIX surging nearly 10%. The reversal signals rising nervousness amid falling equities, weak breadth, and renewed geopolitical concern. As is often the case, such volatility spikes emerge abruptly and can mark inflection points. Trend systems don’t typically trade the VIX directly, but its behavior remains a key sentiment indicator.

Bonds: +0.03% (Previous week: +0.37%)
Bonds were flat this week, with yields stuck in a tight range. Traders continue to reassess the timing of rate cuts amid a resilient economy and sticky inflation prints. The Treasury curve remains relatively flat, with no new momentum signals for trend-followers in fixed income.

Key Takeaways

• Volatility surged, reversing last week's collapse and raising the risk temperature across assets.
• Equities sold off, highlighting a fragile macro backdrop and fading optimism around Fed policy.
• Metals gained, with gold and silver benefiting from safe-haven flows.
• Soft commodities plunged, driven by sharp drops in orange juice, coffee, and sugar.
• Energy held its ground, continuing to trend positively on the back of geopolitical tensions and tight supply.

Top 10 Bear and Bull Price Moves

Here's a detailed analysis of the key market movers for the week.

What’s Moving Up

VIX Futures: +9.44%

​The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), often termed Wall Street's "fear gauge," experienced a notable 9.44% increase this week. This uptick reflects heightened market uncertainty, primarily driven by renewed inflation concerns and apprehensions surrounding potential trade tariffs. Recent reports indicate that a hotter-than-expected inflation reading, coupled with weak consumer sentiment, has intensified fears of an economic slowdown. Additionally, the anticipation of new tariffs under the "Trump tariff Liberation Day" has further unsettled investors, contributing to the VIX's rise. ​

From a trend-following perspective, while the 9.44% weekly move in VIX futures is significant in isolation, it remains relatively subdued compared to the elevated volatility levels observed in recent months. Trend-following strategies typically do not engage directly with the VIX due to its mean-reverting nature and lack of persistent directional trends. However, the VIX serves as a crucial sentiment indicator for U.S. equities. A rising VIX often signals increased market anxiety, prompting trend-followers to exercise caution with long equity positions and consider risk management adjustments. Conversely, a declining VIX may indicate a more stable market environment, potentially supporting bullish equity trends. Therefore, while not a direct trading instrument for trend-followers, the VIX's movements provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential shifts in equity market dynamics.

Soybean Oil: +7.59%

Soybean oil prices surged by 7.59% this week, influenced by several global factors:​

1. Argentine Farmers Delaying Soybean Sales: In Argentina, the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, farmers are selling their soybean crops at the slowest pace in a decade. As of March 19, only 8.4 million tons of the 2024/25 soybeans had been sold, approximately 17-18% of the expected harvest. This hesitation is driven by expectations of a weakening peso and potential tax relief from the government. The reduced sales have tightened global soybean supply chains, exerting upward pressure on soybean oil prices. ​
2. Trade Tensions and Tariffs: China's recent imposition of additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 15% on various U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, has disrupted trade flows. This action, a response to new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, has led to market uncertainties and contributed to the volatility in soybean oil prices. ​
3. Competing Vegetable Oil Markets: Indonesia's plan to increase its biodiesel mandate from a 35% to 40% blend of palm oil-based fuel is expected to tighten global palm oil supplies. This policy shift could lead to higher demand for alternative oils, such as soybean oil, thereby influencing its price dynamics. ​

Trend-Following Perspective:

• Short-Term Trend Followers: The sharp 7.59% increase may have triggered exit signals for those holding short positions, leading to potential losses.​
• Medium-Term Trend Followers: This price surge challenges existing bearish positions, necessitating a reassessment of strategies and risk management approaches.​
• Long-Term Trend Followers: While the long-term downtrend may still be intact, the recent price movement could prompt caution and a reevaluation of market conditions.​

In summary, the recent spike in soybean oil prices, driven by supply constraints and trade disruptions, presents challenges for trend-following strategies, particularly those with bearish positions. Traders should remain vigilant, considering both technical signals and fundamental developments in the market.

Canola: +7.28%

Canola prices experienced a notable increase of 7.28% this week, influenced by several key factors:​

1. Chinese Tariffs on Canadian Canola Products: China imposed a 100% tariff on imports of Canadian canola oil and meal, effective March 20, 2025. This action disrupted trade flows and led to price volatility in the canola market. 
2. Supply Chain Disruptions: The tariffs have caused significant disruptions in the supply chain, leading to price volatility in the canola market. ​
3. Biofuel Sector Contraction: Uncertainty in biofuel policies and trade tensions have led to a contraction in the North American biofuels sector. This contraction has impacted the demand for canola oil, a key feedstock for biofuel production, thereby influencing canola prices. ​

Trend-Following Perspective:

• Short-Term Trend Followers: The sharp 7.28% price increase may have triggered exit signals for those holding short positions, leading to potential losses.​
• Medium-Term Trend Followers: This price surge challenges existing bearish positions, necessitating a reassessment of strategies and risk management approaches.​
• Long-Term Trend Followers: While the long-term downtrend may still be intact, the recent price movement could prompt caution and a reevaluation of market conditions.​

The recent spike in canola prices, driven by trade policy changes and supply chain disruptions, presents challenges for trend-following strategies, particularly those with bearish positions. Traders should remain vigilant, considering both technical signals and fundamental developments in the market.

Silver: +3.98%

Silver prices have experienced a significant uptick, rising by 3.98% this week and contributing to a year-to-date increase of approximately 19.11%. This positive momentum is particularly beneficial for trend-following strategies that have maintained long positions in this asset.​

Causal Factors Behind the Price Increase:

1. Record High Gold Prices: Gold has reached unprecedented levels, surpassing $3,000 per ounce for the first time. Given the historical correlation between gold and silver, the latter often follows gold's lead, attracting investors seeking alternative precious metals. ​
2. Safe-Haven Demand: Persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have bolstered silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Investors are increasingly turning to precious metals to hedge against market volatility and potential downturns. ​
3. Industrial Demand: Silver's extensive industrial applications, particularly in electronics and renewable energy sectors, continue to drive demand. The metal's use in photovoltaic solar panels and 5G technology underscores its critical role in modern industries. ​

Trend-Following Perspective:

• Short-Term Trend Followers: The recent 3.98% price increase may have triggered buy signals, encouraging the initiation of long positions to capitalize on the upward momentum.​
• Medium-Term Trend Followers: The sustained uptrend over recent weeks aligns with medium-term strategies, likely resulting in the maintenance or addition of long positions.​
• Long-Term Trend Followers: The consistent appreciation in silver prices supports long-term bullish positions, reflecting a favorable environment for trend-following strategies.​

The 3.98% increase in silver prices presents favourable conditions for trend-following strategies across various time horizons, with the current market dynamics supporting sustained bullish positions.

Cocoa: +3.63%

Cocoa futures experienced a notable increase of 3.63% this week, reflecting ongoing volatility in the market. This movement presents mixed outcomes for trend-following strategies (TF):​

• Long-Term Trend Followers: Those maintaining long positions may find this uptick favourable, aligning with a broader bullish trend observed over the past year.​
• Short to Medium-Term Trend Followers: Conversely, traders with short positions may view this rise as unfavorable, as it counters recent bearish movements.​

Causal Factors Behind the Price Increase:

1. Supply Constraints in West Africa: The Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, plans to reduce exports for the upcoming 2025/26 season to 1.3 million tonnes, down from the typical 1.7 million tonnes. This decision stems from decreased production attributed to climate change, aging plantations, and the spread of plant diseases. ​
2. Market Volatility and Speculation: The cocoa market has experienced significant price fluctuations due to supply-demand imbalances and speculative trading. Futures markets have seen record highs, with prices reaching $8,042 per tonne as of March 28, 2025. ​
3. Industry Responses to Rising Costs: Chocolate manufacturers are exploring alternatives to mitigate the impact of soaring cocoa prices. Some companies are considering substituting cocoa with lab-grown alternatives or other ingredients, which may influence future demand dynamics. ​Reuters

Trend-Following Perspective:

• Short-Term Trend Followers: The recent price increase may have triggered stop-loss orders or prompted reevaluation of short positions, as the market moves against the anticipated downward trend.​
• Medium-Term Trend Followers: Traders in this category might experience challenges due to the market's volatility and lack of clear directional movement, leading to potential adjustments in their strategies.​
• Long-Term Trend Followers: The sustained upward trajectory over the past year supports the continuation of long positions, with the recent price increase reinforcing confidence in the ongoing bullish trend.​

In summary, the 3.63% rise in cocoa futures underscores the market's complexity, influenced by supply constraints, speculative activity, and industry adaptations. Trend-following strategies must navigate these dynamics carefully, considering both the opportunities and risks presented by current market conditions.

What’s Moving Down

Orange Juice: -15.28%

Orange juice futures experienced a significant decline of 15.28% this week, marking a continuation of the recent downward trend. This movement is favourable for trend-following (TF) strategies holding short positions, as they benefit from the accelerating bearish momentum.​

Causal Factors Behind the Price Decrease:

1. Improved Weather Conditions: Stabilization of weather patterns in key growing regions, particularly in Florida and Brazil, has alleviated concerns over supply disruptions. The absence of adverse weather events, such as hurricanes, has contributed to expectations of a more robust harvest. ​
2. Declining Consumer Demand: Elevated retail prices have led to decreased consumer demand for orange juice. Shifts in consumer preferences toward alternative beverages have further pressured demand, contributing to the price decline. ​
3. Market Correction: After reaching record highs in mid-2024, orange juice futures have undergone a sharp correction. This adjustment reflects a natural market response to previously inflated prices, aligning with historical patterns of volatility in this commodity. ​

Trend-Following Perspective:

• Short-Term Trend Followers: The pronounced weekly decline reinforces existing short positions, offering substantial gains as the bearish trend accelerates.​
• Medium to Long-Term Trend Followers: The sustained downward trajectory over recent months aligns with longer-term bearish positions. Traders in these categories benefit from maintaining short exposure, capitalizing on the continued price depreciation.​

In summary, the 15.28% decrease in orange juice futures is influenced by improved weather conditions, declining consumer demand, and a market correction following previous highs. These factors collectively contribute to a favorable environment for trend-following strategies positioned on the short side.

Oats: -7.81%

Oats futures experienced a notable decline of 7.81% this week, continuing a pattern of price fluctuation within a consolidation phase. This environment typically presents limited opportunities for trend-following strategies, as the absence of a clear directional trend makes it challenging to establish positions.​

Causal Factors Behind the Price Decrease:

1. Supply Dynamics: The decline in oats prices may be attributed to signs of ample supplies. Historically, prices for oats traded in Chicago have fallen to multi-year lows amid indications of abundant availability of the commodity. ​
2. Demand Considerations: While specific demand-side data is limited, general trends in the agricultural sector suggest stable consumption patterns for oats, which may not be sufficient to offset the pressures from increased supply.​

Trend-Following Perspective:

• Short-Term Trend Followers: The recent price drop may appear attractive; however, the overall consolidation phase suggests a lack of clear short-term trends, making it challenging to identify profitable entry points.​
• Medium-Term Trend Followers: The sideways movement in oats prices indicates an absence of medium-term trends, leading to potential indecision or a preference to await more definitive market signals before committing capital.​
• Long-Term Trend Followers: The prolonged consolidation phase implies that long-term trend followers are likely to remain on the sidelines, monitoring the market for a breakout or the establishment of a sustained trend before engaging.​

The 7.81% decrease in oats futures reflects underlying supply dynamics and the challenges of trading within a consolidating market. Trend-following strategies may find limited opportunities until a clear directional trend emerges.

Wheat: -5.33%
Wheat futures declined by 5.33% this week, a movement that likely benefited trend-following strategies holding short positions.​

Causal Factors Behind the Price Decrease:

1. Peace Negotiations Between Russia and Ukraine: Ongoing talks aimed at resolving conflicts between these major wheat exporters have alleviated concerns about supply disruptions, contributing to the decline in wheat prices. ​
2. Global Bumper Harvests: Favorable weather conditions have led to abundant wheat production worldwide, increasing supply and exerting downward pressure on prices. ​
3. Reduced Import Demand: Key importing countries, such as China and Indonesia, have increased local cereal production and are experiencing economic slowdowns, leading to decreased wheat imports and further depressing global prices. ​

Trend-Following Perspective:

• Short-Term Trend Followers: The recent price drop aligns with existing bearish trends, likely resulting in profitable outcomes for those holding short positions.​
• Medium-Term Trend Followers: The sustained downtrend in wheat prices supports the continuation of medium-term short positions, reinforcing the bearish market sentiment.​
• Long-Term Trend Followers: Persistent factors such as ongoing peace talks and robust global harvests suggest that long-term trend followers may maintain their short positions, anticipating continued price declines.​

The 5.33% decrease in wheat futures is attributed to diplomatic developments, ample global supply, and reduced import demand. These factors have created a favorable environment for trend-following strategies with short exposures in the wheat market.

Sugar: -3.35%

Sugar futures experienced a decline of 3.35% this week, a movement that may have been favourable for trend-following strategies holding short positions.​

Causal Factors Behind the Price Decrease:

1. Increased Export Activity from India: The Indian government authorized the export of 1 million metric tons of sugar, aiming to reduce surplus stocks and support domestic prices. This decision introduced additional supply into the global market, exerting downward pressure on sugar prices. ​
2. Favorable Weather Conditions in Brazil: Forecasts predicting widespread showers in Brazil's key sugar-growing regions alleviated concerns about crop yields. The anticipated improvement in crop conditions contributed to expectations of increased sugar production, influencing the price decline. ​
3. Strengthening of the U.S. Dollar: A stronger U.S. dollar can make commodities priced in dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially reducing demand. This currency dynamic may have played a role in the recent decrease in sugar prices.​

Trend-Following Perspective:

• Short-Term Trend Followers: The recent 3.35% price drop aligns with existing bearish trends, likely resulting in profitable outcomes for those holding short positions.​
• Medium-Term Trend Followers: The sustained downtrend in sugar prices supports the continuation of medium-term short positions, reinforcing the bearish market sentiment.​
• Long-Term Trend Followers: Persistent factors such as increased export activities and favourable weather conditions suggest that long-term trend followers may maintain their short positions, anticipating continued price declines.​

In summary, the 3.35% decrease in sugar futures is attributed to India's export policies, improved weather forecasts in Brazil, and currency fluctuations. These factors have created a favourable environment for trend-following strategies with short exposures in the sugar market.

Coffee: -3.01%

​Coffee futures experienced a decline of 3.01% this week, posing challenges for trend-following strategies that had previously benefited from a strong bullish trend in the coffee market.​

Causal Factors Behind the Price Decrease:

1. Anticipation of Rain in Brazil: Forecasts predict widespread showers in Brazil's coffee-growing regions into the next week, which could alleviate previous dryness concerns and potentially enhance crop yields. This expectation has contributed to the downward pressure on coffee prices. ​
2. Concerns Over Consumer Demand: Market analysts are increasingly apprehensive that record-high coffee prices may dampen consumer confidence and reduce consumption. The potential for decreased demand has influenced the recent price decline. ​
3. Profit-Taking by Investors: Following a significant price surge in previous months, some investors may be engaging in profit-taking, leading to a temporary pullback in coffee futures prices.​

Trend-Following Perspective:

• Short-Term Trend Followers: The 3.01% price decrease may have triggered sell signals for short-term traders, prompting them to close or reverse positions to mitigate losses.​
• Medium-Term Trend Followers: This recent decline challenges the existing bullish trend observed over the past months. Medium-term traders may need to reassess their positions, considering whether this movement signifies a temporary correction or a potential trend reversal.​
• Long-Term Trend Followers: Despite the weekly decline, the long-term bullish trend driven by supply constraints and increased global demand may still hold. Long-term traders might view this dip as a buying opportunity, anticipating a continuation of the upward trajectory.​

In summary, the 3.01% decline in coffee futures reflects a complex interplay of anticipated improved weather conditions in Brazil, concerns over consumer demand at elevated price levels, and profit-taking activities. Trend-following strategies may need to adapt to these evolving market dynamics, balancing short-term movements against the broader supply-demand landscape.

Conclusion

As the first quarter draws to a close, the markets are sending a clear message: uncertainty is back on centre stage. The surge in volatility, coupled with divergent price behavior across asset classes, underscores a landscape where conviction is scarce, and whipsaws are abundant. From orange juice's dramatic plunge to the stubborn resilience in metals and energy, this week was a reminder that markets don’t move in unison—and trend-following strategies thrive not on noise, but on persistence.

Yet in recent weeks, persistence has been hard to find. The TTU Trend Barometer slipping to 30% reflects this fragility. Breadth has narrowed, false breakouts are frequent, and few instruments are delivering the clean, extended moves that systematic strategies favor. While strong trends persist in select corners—silver, energy, even the long arc of cocoa—they are increasingly being offset by sharp reversals in grains, softs, and equities.

For trend followers, this is not the time to predict—it’s the time to stay reactive, flexible, and grounded in process. These periods of drawdown and frustration often precede fertile ground for future trends. Just as a lion’s roar signals its presence before the hunt, rising volatility may be the early warning that the next cycle of opportunity is stirring. The key is to stay alive, stay alert, and let the markets lead the way.

List of Resources used in the Week in Review

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